Jan 31

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 31st

Latest disappointing news as Twittered just now:

Tactical Manoeuvre  has now been withdrawn – the last I saw at 8.35, people were trying to get three figure sums on at 10/1 and 11/1 – we have been denied a great ‘bet to nothing’ unfortunately – the horse has two entries not that far away – subscribers will be kept informed…

Subscribers note that the horse has two further entries this week; At Catterick on Friday and at Taunton on Sunday – I will keep you informed…..

LEICESTER HAS PASSED THE INSPECTION!

Written at 6.35: This is not a ‘Price Alert’ as such but you might want to throw some loose change at TACTICAL MANOEUVRE (3.35 Leicester) this afternoon, as speculative money piles up in the (realistic) positive exchange queue at the time of writing.  Still available in plenty of places at 16/1, there will be worse outsiders running today I’ll wager.

Twittered at 7.40: The 16/1 outsider (previously mentioned below) is now only available at that price with two firms – 12/1 in several places now, whilst the support on Betfair continues to gather pace

Tuesday’s school report:

The second consecutive major singular Price Alert won at 9/2 yesterday (as did Monday’s offering).  These were additions to the service to a fashion and cannot always be in place if the relevant scenario fails to emerge.  I do not ‘invent’ horses that are not standing out from the crowd.  Never have – never will!

An Additional 6/1 MMA winner emerged as well (+ a 14/1 runner up) and whilst we claimed three winners via the in form trainers list, it’s worth noting that five others (frustratingly) finished second, including those at 6/1 and 5/1.

Business now done for the day – latest news (8.30) is that Tactical Manoeuvre is only 16’s now with Sportingbet – as short as 11/1 with Skybet – Very best of luck today guys.

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – Now updated with seven additions:

AYR:

1.35: Sweet As Candy – 9/2 (365/Sunbets/BetVictor) – STILL 9/2

2.35: Topham Bay – 12/1 (PP) – NOW AN AVERAGE PRICE OF 9/1

3.45: Un Noble – 11/2 (Generally available) – NOW 9/2

4.20: Sporting Press – 3/1 (Betfair/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 5/2

Additional Ayr entries at 8.00:

NONE

LEICESTER (Racing is on):

2.15: Indian Reel – 7/2 (Hills/Betfair/Betfred/Tote) – NOW 3/1

Additional Leicester entries at 8.00:

1.45: Cobolobo – 12/1 (Generally available – advised to small stakes)

3.55: Tactical Manoeuvre – 16/1 – (365/sportingbet/BetVictor)

NEWCASTLE:

4.05: Song Of Love – 50/1 (Ladbrokes – if you have any loose change about your person) – NOW 25/1

Additional Newcastle entries at 8.00:

 5.15: Swissie – 9/1 (Stan James)

6.45: Duke Cosimo – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

CHELMSFORD:

NONE AS YET

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.00:

2.25: Highly Approved – 10/3 (PP)

3.00: Two against the field to consider: Time To Blossom 10/3 (Marathon) & Wiliam Hunter – 9/1 (Generally available)

4.10: Jack The Truth – 11/2 (Marathon/PP/Sta James/BetVictor)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE (Requirement: Minimum 25% strike rate and/or exceptional level stake profit):

10/29—Donald McCain (+3) – 1 at Ayr: Hills Of Dubai (3.45)

7/19—Henry Daly (+18) – 2 at Leicester: Head To The Stars (1.45) & Go West Young Man (3.25)

6/18—Gary Moore (+6) – 1 at Chelmsford: Rydan (3.00)

4/11—Neil Mullholland (+12) – 2 at Chelmsford: Cape Banjo (1.55) & Silverturnstogold (3.35)

4/12—Derek Shaw (+1) – 3 chances: Emigrated (2.15 Leicester), Amazing Amaya (5.15 Newcastle) & Run With Pride (6.15)

4/16—Keith Dalgleish (+27) – 4 today: Hardriock David (1.35 Ayr), Somnambulist (4.05 Newcastle), Sporting Press (4.20 Ayr) & Good Boy Alfie (4.40 Newcastle)

3/6—Iain Jardine (+8) – 2 today: The Delray Munky (2.35 Ayr) & Archipeligo (4.05 Newcastle)

3/6—Phil Kirby (+5) – 2 chances: Man Of Verve (1.25 Chelmsford) & Hangard (1.35 Ayr)

3/8—Antony Brittain (+8) – 2 at Newcastle: Working Togther (5.15) & Lucky Lodge (6.45)

3/8—Rose Dobbin (+7) – 1 at Ayr: Sweet As Candy (1.35)

3/10—Tony Carroll (+15) – 1 at Chelmsford: Prerogative (1.25)

3/10—Amy Murphy (+5) – 2 at Newcastle: Lazarus (4.05) & Entertaining Ben (6.15)

3/12—Gay Kelleway (+28) – 1 at Chelmsford: Vettori Rules (3.00)

2/3—Simon Crisford (+10) – 1 at Chelmsford: Time To Blossom (3.00)

25 runners listed in race order via in the form trainers:

1.25: Prerogative & Man Of Verve

1.35: Hardrock Davis, Hangard & Sweet As Candy

1.45: Head To The Stars

1.55: Cape Banjo

2.15: Emigrated

2.35: The Delray Munky

3.00: Vettori Rules, Time To Blossom & Rydan

3.25: Go West Young Man

3.35: Sulverturnstogold

3.45: Hills Of Dubai

4.05: Somnambulist, Archipeligo & Lazarus

4.20: Sporting Press

4.40: Good Boy Alfie

5.15: Amazing Amaya & Working Together

6.15: Run With Pride & Entertaining Ben

6.45: Lucky Lodge

 

WEDNESDAY STAT ATTACK (Based on five year result study unless stated):

LEICESTER (Three year study):

18 races – 6 winning favourites – All 18 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Average Placepot dividend: £265.90

Highest dividend: £570.80 (2017) – Lowest dividend: £8.50 (2015)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Sixteen different trainers have saddled the eighteen winners between them.  The only trainer to have secured a double to date is Nigel Twiston-Davies who sent winners out at 7/1 and 3/1 in 2015, creating a 31/1 brace.  Nigel has just the one runner on the card today, namely Ballyarthur (2.50)

AYR (Only one meeting to date):

6 races – 3 winning favourites – 5/6 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Placepot dividend: £156.40

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

The only trainer to secure two winners on the inaugural card was R Mike Smith (84/1 double) via 16/1 & 4/1 gold medallists.  The trainer has declared one horse today: Strong Economy (3.10).  Out of interest, the trainer also saddles Spes Notra (4.05 Newcastle) this afternoon

CHELMSFORD (Three year study):

21 races – 7 winning favourites – 20/21 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Average Placepot dividend: £108.07

Highest dividend: £278.80 (2015) – Lowest dividend: £20.00 (2016)

Leading trainer at the corresponding meeting during the study period:

Nine to report as all 21 winners to date have been saddled by different trainers!

CHELMSFORD: LAST SIX MEETINGS – LATEST STATS:

40 races – 41 winners via one dead heat – 16 winning favourites – 39/41 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

The only trainer to have saddled three winners (Derek Shaw at 4/1, 7/2 & Evens*) is not represented today.  That said, Derek has three runners elsewhere which you can find in the in form trainer list above.

NEWCASTLE (A/W): LAST FIVE MEETINGS – LATEST STATS:

34 races- 11 winning favourites – 32/34 winners scored at a top price of 9/1.

Roger Fell (22/1, 4/1 & 6/4**) and Jim Goldie 7/1, 5/1 & 8/11*) are the only trainers to have saddled more than two winners during the study period.

Roger is not represented today, though Jim has two entries on the card; Oriental Lily (6.15) & Star Cracker (6.45)

 

SCOTTISH/WELSH VENUE UPDATE – WEDNESDAY – AYR:

The only trainer with decent figures today is Donald McCain (Hills Of Dubai – 3.45).  Donald’s ratio at the track this season stands at 3/6 – his five year figures are not so impressive at 15/83, though the stats rightly suggest that Donald gets his fair share of winners at Ayr.

 

‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ UPDATE – WEDNESDAY

LEICESTER:

1.15: Favourites have won 3/5 contests to date during which time, a top priced score at 9/2 has emerged.

2.15: All three winners have carried 11-6 or more to victory, the trio scoring at a top price of 3/1, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

2.50: All four favourites have been beaten via three contests to date.

3.25: Tom George comes into the race on a hat trick, having entered just one runner at the penultimate stage, namely Until Winning. Until Winning has not been declared unfortunately, especially as Tom’s inmate has no entries for the foreseeable future.  We still await the first winning favourite with the three gold medallists to date having been returned at 7/1, 5/1 & 7/2.

CHELMSFORD:

1.55: Favourites have won all three renewals, producing level stake profits of nine points to date.

4.10: We still await the first successful market leader with winners returned at 11/1, 10/1 & 3/1 via three contests thus far.  That said, three of the four favourites have (at least) finished in the frame.

THE NEXT ‘AHEAD OF THE GAME’ SERVICE WILL BE OFFERED ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL COVER RIGHT THROUGH TO THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

Be lucky but as ever – Be aware!

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