Apr 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 4th

Tuesday’s school report:

Yet another day for ‘controlled stakes’ – More heavy rain (forecast for today almost anywhere/everywhere in the country) looks like it could account for Warwick tomorrow whilst some meetings have already been ‘written off’ later in the week.  Saturday’s Stratford meeting has been called off which was inevitable with parts of the course under two feet of water.

All three MMA horses where sent off at shorter prices than I offered yesterday but failed to provide a winner.  Thankfully, two of the four horses via the in form trainer sector won at 7/2 and 10/1.

APPROXIMMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

5.30: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

7.15: MAL’S LINGFIELD ANALYSIS (via free link from my Twitter page) – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT: – DONE WITH 10 ADDITIONS

8.40: IN FORM TRAINERS (2/4 WON YESTERDAY AT 7/2 & 10/3) – DONE

9.00: SOUTHWELL POINTERS TODAY – DONE

9.30: FOOTBALL SERVICE- DONE

10.00: FURTHER GRAND NATIONAL STATS/FACTS FOLLOWING YESTERDAY’S OFFERING – DONE

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

LINGFIELD:

1.40: Ertidaad – 7/2 (365)

3.15: Kalaga – 5/1 (PP)

4.45: Mister Freeze – 11/1 (365)

Additional Lingfield entries at 8.00:

2.10: Exspectation – 14/1 (365/Coral/BetVictor)

3.45: Mishall – 9/1 (Sportingbet)

4.15: Controversial Lady – 18/1 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

 

SOUTHWELL:

3.25: Laqab – 12/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Southwell entries at 8.00:

1.50: Fareeq – 12/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

2.55: Soldier Blue – 13/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.55: Moltoir – 8/1 (Skybet/Hills/Sunbets)

4.25: Kheleyf’s Girl – 28/1 (365)

455: Riverside Bridge – 16/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

 

KEMPTON:

7.15: Freebie Rocks – 5/1 (365/Skybet/BetBright/PP)

8.15: Arctic Sea – 8/1 (365/Skybet)

8.45: Takeitfromalady – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Kempton entries at 8.00:

6.45: Ripp Orf – 11/2 (Skybet)

7.45: Eponina – 10/1 Betfair/PP)

 

IN FORM TRAINERS INCLUDE:

13/27—Charlie Appleby (+21) – 1 at Lingfield: Night Story (5.15)

5/11—Ben Haslam (+13) – 2 at Kempton: Displaying Amber (5.45) & Eponinea (7.45)

4/10—Richard Hannon (+9) – 5 today – 2 at Lingfield: Tathmeen (2.45) & Haylah (3.15) & 3 at Kempton: Straight Ash (6.15), Tig Tog (7.15) & Fast And Hot (8.15)

4/10—Kevin Ryan (+15) – 3 chances: Sentiomental Gent (2.25 Southwell), How Bizarre (3.55 Southwell) & Kodicat (7.45 Kempton)

3/6—Mick Channon (+1) – 3 today: Excellent World (1.40 Lingfield) & 2 at Kempton: Trogon (6.15) & Macho Mover (7.15)

3/8—Brian Ellison (+24) – 6 at Southwell: Seebring (1.50), Soldier Blue (2.55), Moltoir (3.55) & Traveltalk, Riverside Bridge & Snookered (4.55)

Last two runners have won—Alan Bailey (+7) – 1 at Kempton: Lady Of York (9.15)

Last two runners have won—Richard Fahey (+7) – 1 at Southwell: Mabo (3.55)

Last two runners have won—David O’Meara (+3) – 2 today: Impart (3.45 Lingfield) & Larchmont Lad (5.30 Leopardstown)

2/4—David C Griffiths (+4) – 1 at Lingfield: Taverner (4.45)

2/4—Shaun Lycett (+9) – 1 at Lingfield: The King’s Steed (1.40)

26 runners – listed in race order:

1.40: The King’s Steed & Excellent World

1.50: Seebring

2.25: Sentimental Gent

2.45: Tathmeen

2.55: Soldier Blue

3.15: Haylah

3.45: Impart

3.55: How Bizarre, Moltoir & Mabo

4.45: Taverner

4.55: Traveltalk, Riverside Bridge & Snookered

5.15: Night Story

5.30: Larchmont Lad

5.45: Displaying Amber

6.15: Straight Ash & Trogon

7.15: Tig Tog & Macho Mover

7.45: Kodicat & Eponina

8.15: Fast And Hot

9.15: Lady Of York

 

SOUTHWELL POINTERS TODAY: 

2.55: Five and six-year-old’s have (equally) split the last four renewals and BROCKHOLES is the only relevant horse declared today.

3.25: Four-year-old’s have won three of the last five contests whilst all winners during the period carried a minimum burden of 9-2 – KYLLACHY’S TALE is the only one of the quartet of vintage representatives to carry the ‘correct weight’ this time around, mainly because of jockey claims.

3.55: All five winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three favourite have obliged during the period.

 

Leading trainers (turf) on the flat this season to date (Next potential meeting: Nottingham – next Wednesday):

3/6—Mick Channon

3/8—Kevin Ryan

3/24—Richard Fahey

2/4—Ron Harris

 

AINTREE STATS – GRAND NATIONAL DAY

Seven year trends relating to the Saturday of the Festival:

Leading trainers:

9 winners—Nicky Henderson (including three successful favourites)

Trainers who achieved doubles on the last day of the meeting during the last seven years:

2017—Colin Tizzard (43/1 double)

2016—Willie Mullins (24/1 treble)

2012—Nicky Henderson (154/1 four timer)

2011—Nicky Henderson (52/1 treble)

Average (Saturday) Placepot dividend (2011 – 2017 inclusive): £833.24

46 favourites in Placepot races – 13 winners – 12 placed – 21 unplaced

Highest dividend: £2,277.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced in 2013

Lowest dividend: £132.30 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced in 2012

Trainers of beaten favourites in all races at the three day meeting last year:

4–Nicky Henderson (6/5, 11/4, 9/4** & 8/1**)

3–Tom George (8/1***, 6/1 & 10/3)

1—Kim Bailey (6/5)

1–Enda Bolger (7/4)

1–Henry De Bromhead (10/3)

1–Warren Greatrex (9/2)

1–Malcolm Jefferson (9/4**)

1–Dr Richard Newland (8/1***)

1–Paul Nicholls (8/1**)

1–Jonjo O’Neill (8/1***)

1—Dan Skelton (4/1)

1–Colin Tizzard (2/1)

1—Nigel Twiston-Davies (8/1)

1—Lucy Wadham (9/2)

1—Ian Williams (6/1)

 

FOOTBALL – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – OUTRIGHT BETTING   

3/1–Real Madrid (Coral) – Juvenutus

3/1–Barcelona (Skybet/Sportingbet) – Opponents: Roma

7/2–Manchester City (BetStars/Sportingbet) – Liverpool

7/2–Bayern Munich (Generally available) – Sevilla

14/1–Liverpool (365/Skybet) – Man City

80/1–Roma (188) – Barcelona

250/1–Sevilla (Unibet/188/BetVictor) – Bayern Munich

700/1–Juventus (Uniber/888) – Real Madrid

RECENT FACTS/STATS – CHAMPIONS LEAGUE/EUROPEAN CUP:

Real Madrid have won three of the last four competitions

Juventus have been losing finalists in two of the last three years

Barcelona have reached the final four times in the last 12 years – winning on every occasion

Liverpool won the competition in 2005 – losing their last final against AC Milan two years later

Manchester City have never reached the final

Bayern Munich beat fellow Germans Dortmund in 2013 – have not reached the final since

Roma lost to Livepool in the 1985 final – no subsequent appearances in the final

Sevilla have never reached the final – though Spanish sides have won the last four competitions

WEDNESDAY’S BIG GAME (LIVERPOOL V MAN CITY (7.45 – BT SPORT):

2/1–Liverpool (365/Hills/Marathon/Betfair/Betfred)

11/4–Draw (Betway)

7/5–Man City (Generally available)

Half time betting:

23/10–Liverpool (PP/Unibet/Betway/BetBirght/188)

13/10–Draw (365/Betfair/Sunbets/Betway)

2/1–Man City (Ladbrokes/Betfair/Coral/Black Type)

Half time/Full time odds:

4/1–Liverpool/Liverpool (BetStars/BetVictor)

15/1–Liverpool/Draw (BetVictor)

28/1–Liverpool/Man City (Black Type)

31/5–Draw/Liverpool (188)

11/2–Draw/Draw (BetVictor)

11/2–Draw/Man City (Sunbets)

30/1–Man City/Liverpool (Marathon/188)

15/1–Man City/Draw (BetVictor)

3/1–Man City/Man City (Betfair/BetStars)

To qualify for the semi-finals:

9/4–Liverpool (365)

4/9–Man City (Skybet/Hills/Betfair/BetStars/BetBright/BetVictor)

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