Sep 20

Mal’s Daily (Pontefract) analysis – Thursday 20th

PONTEFRACT – SEPTEMBER 20

 

2.10: The favourite stats below make for compulsive reading though today’s (predicted) onset of rain throughout the land suggests that form lines could go base over apex.  The top three in the market should provide the winner yet again though not one them stands out from the others really, albeit the positive money this morning is for the shortest priced of the trio, namely Serengeti Song.

Favourite factor: This is one of the strongest races for favourites throughout the entire year at Pontefract, with seven of the last eleven market leaders having won. Indeed, the biggest priced winner during the decade had been recorded at just 10/3 before last year’s 9/1 winner reared its ugly head.

 

2.40: All eleven winners during the study period carried 8-10 or more to victory, statistics which eliminates plenty of declarations this time around, hopefully leaving the likes of Etisalat, Christopher Wood and Leigh’s Law to dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last seven years.  All eleven winners in as many years scored at a top price of 10/1.

 

3.15: Owen Burrows/Ryan Moore were expected to go close in the previous event with Etisalat and another contender representing the bandwagon might keep up the good work, namely Najashee.  Mulligatawny could be scuppered by rain which should have reached Pontefract Park by the time flag fall arrives, though the wet stuff will likely add to the chance of Victory Chime if the scenario evolves early enough in the day for Ralph Beckett’s raider.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have snared Placepot positions by winning their respective events.  The other trio of market leaders finished well down the field.

 

3.45: Three-year-olds have recorded seven victories in the last eleven years, stats which include four of the last five winners of this Class2 handicap for fillies. Not much jumps off the page in all honesty though I note that Mick Channon saddled the winners two year ago (representative was withdrawn twelve months ago), whereby I might have small each interests on his pair here which are both quoted at 20/1 at the time of writing, namely Tricksy Spirit and Neola.  Any rain would not go against their respective chances which is more than you can say for some of the entries on offer at much shorter odds.

Favourite factor: Four winning favourites to report during the last eleven years, with nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 15/2.  That said, the two winners were returned at 33/1 & 16/1.

 

4.20: Here we go (yet) again with the ever present staying contest on a Pontefract card which is just about the only negative vibe I report relating to the lovely west Yorkshire venue.  Regular readers will know that I really don’t like these glorified ‘greyhound races’ in which the runners shake hooves as they enter the stalls, before deciding which one of them is going to win today.  Believing that I am in a minority of one, I will offer up Rubenesque, Pepper Street and So Near So Farhh against their eight rivals before retiring to the bar.

Favourite factor: Two successful clear market leaders have been registered during the last eleven alongside two joint favourites.  All eleven winners during the study period scored at a top price of 11/1.

 

4.55: This is a new race on the Pontefract card and with just three runners being attracted to contest the event, there must be a strong (odds on) chance that the race will be lost after this debacle.

 

5.25: I note than local trainer Richard Whitaker won the race last year and with two representatives plying their trade in the finale, I’m opting for the pair of inmates which are listed in marginal order of preference, namely Dawn Breaking and Round The Island. Richard has produced dozen of ‘rabbits from hats’ down the years and this pair represent value over their rivals from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Two successful market leaders to report via eight renewals.  Five of the eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.