My Five For The Festival

Even if you’ve been living under a rock since the turn of the year, you’ll know that it’s the Cheltenham Festival 2010 next week.

The biggest four days racing, betting and drinking, either side of the Irish Sea (with the possible exception of the drinking at Punchestown!) sees championship races galore, from the bumper babies to the champion chasers, and everything in between.

I’ve been through the declarations, and found five Irish horses I expect to be there or thereabouts when the action starts next week. Some will be more obvious than others, and all will have a decent chance.

So, without further procrastinations, here is my quality quintet with which to go to war…

Dunguib (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)

OK, OK, I know it’s a most uninspiring start. But wait, hear me out. This horse represents the hopes and dreams of so many Irishmen and women. (And not just Irish, I can tell you!) He laughed at the oppo in the Bumper last season, and bids to be the first horse since Montelado in 1993 to win the back-to-back races of Champion Bumper and Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The way he won last time out marked him down as a supreme novice hurdler, and I expect him to win – possibly rout – the first race and get those who wade in with large stakes to win smaller multiples off to the proverbial Festival Flyer.

He might not be a ‘dark horse’, but he’s certainly a hell of a horse. And who doesn’t want to be cheering him up the hill?!

Garde Champetre (Cross Country Chase)

Another obvious pick, as Enda Bolger’s top bush-hopper is on the hat-trick, having secured the last two renewals of this race.

It might be tougher this time around, with both stablemate L’Ami and up-and-comer Sizing Australia, threatening Garde’s monopoly.

These races are usually run pretty slowly, and Enda’s seem to have a bit to spare for the sprint finish at the end. To wit, Bolger had the first three home last year.

According to the weights, L’Ami now has the beating of Garde Champetre, but don’t believe the formbook. Weight is hardly material in this event, and I expect Nina Carberry to complete the triple on Garde Champetre, and a four-timer in all (having won on Heads Onthe Ground in 2007).

Bishopsfurze (Champion Bumper)

Willie Mullins has won more than a third of the seventeen flat races ever run at the Festival (six to be precise), and Bishopsfurze looks the pick of his entry.

The way he picked up and ran away from reasonable opposition on his only start to date, in ground he was alleged to have hated, was impressive.

The Bishop has been awarded the accolade of a Timeform ‘large P’, which implies “capable of much better form”. And he’ll need to be too, because there’s plenty of good horses in here with more form on the board.

Perhaps his toughest opponents will be Al Ferof, who was trained in Ireland for his first two starts, before being bought and sent to Paul Nicholls; and, Shot From The Hip, Eddie O’Grady’s exciting prospect, who is two for two so far.

But dear old Willie knows the time of day in this race (hours, minutes, seconds, tenths of a second), and he’s sure to give us a run at a decent price (currently 14/1).

Smoking Aces (Pertemps Final)

I am actually gutted that this one was taken out of the Coral Cup, because I’d had a very nice wager at 25/1. But shrewd trainer Tom Taaffe obviously felt that the Pertemps Final was a more winnable race.

Smoking Aces has improved each time he’s been stepped up in trip; has a gorgeous weight just above ten stone (as I write); and possesses bombproof form.

Alfie Sherrin will be a tough nut to crack, but there isn’t a horse in the race who will appreciate the three miles of this race more than the ‘Aces.

He’s been nibbled today, and I expect this one to go off second favourite, and possibly even challenge for favouritism. All the 14′s has gone, and all the 12′s will be gone soon!

Hampshire Express (Martin Pipe Conditional’s Handicap Hurdle)

A tough race to wager in, to be sure, but nevertheless I like the look of Hampshire Express. The second Mullins’ munition to merit a mention, the Express showed little or nothing prior to his last start where, inexplicably (on form at least), he won in a canter as the 4/1 favourite.

The turn of foot he showed that day to put the race to bed was memorable, and it’s that kind of gear change we’re looking for in a race of this nature, where we need the horse to do as much of the donkey work (pardon the pun) as possible.

That is, if you have a horse that takes a Tony McCoy Wichita Lineman ride to win, you couldn’t be confident in a race like this. If you have a horse that, when asked to pick up, does just that – and in spades – then you’re in with a chance.

Although I can’t be confident with this one, I’m hopeful at least, and it’ll be a good old Friday night should he oblige!

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Whatever you’re backing next week, whether you’re headed to the track, or watching in the pub, or on your telly, or even if you’re listening on the radio. Heck, even if you’re just checking the results in the paper the next morning, I sincerely wish you the best of luck.

Let’s hope the winners pay for the losers!

Matt

p.s. What do you fancy? Feel free to leave a comment in the box below with your best bet of the week.

Posted by Matt on March 13, 2010. Filed under Race Previews. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.