Nailed On – Final Review
Well that’s the test for Nailed On wrapped up so now it’s time to pen some final thoughts and observations…
Firstly, let’s look at some stats for the 32 day test period:
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A £113 profit betting to level stakes (1.13 points) on all selections (1 Point and 2 Point bets)
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A £647.16 profit betting 10% of the bank on 2 Point bets only (a 64% increase to a starting bank of £1000)
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45 winning bets out of 95 possible selections – a 47% strike rate for all selections (below the advertised strike rate)
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10 winning selections out of 16 for the 2 point (NAP) selections – a 63% strike rate (below advertised strike rate)
So is Nailed On any good? This test represents a small window for final analysis but I have followed the system from July 2008 to January 2009 so will attempt to review based within that context – as well as the results achieved during this test period.
The Level Stakes Bank remained largely flat although it did end on a very small profit. The 10% Bank (which is based betting 10% of a separate bank –starting with £1000- on the 2 Point selections only) performed far more impressively growing to a final £1647.16…and it is the 2 Point (NAP) selections where I believe the real value of Nailed On lies…
To clear up any confusion, Nailed On is actually two systems in one. Part one of the system involves checking early price movements (between 11 -11.15 am) and then one additional rule based on information gleaned from the Racing Post.
Part two uses the existing Money Talks system (see review in the testing section)…all selections are then backed to SP. The additional element to the system is that if both parts (one and two) throw up the same selection, this becomes a 2 Point bet. Note, Money Talks is included as part of the package.
Now time for a few criticisms: during the test period, I came up with different selections from the author on a number of occasions (you have access to his forum/telephone for 1 month if you purchase). Now some of these could be put down to quick changes in the markets, but some I just could not see how we differed which makes me believe he may have been adding his own judgement but I cannot prove this. However, please note that his published results are always accurate based on what he posts in his forum.
Another criticism; the author changed the way he recommends betting and has advised that users should only back the 2 point selections. To be fair, this is what I am about to recommend myself (see later) but it doesn’t inspire confidence if an author of a system abandons some of the main methods – in this case NOT to back part one or two selections on their own.
Back to the 2 Point selections: as already stated, here is where I believe the true value lies..we achieved a 63% strike rate on these during the test and this is about the same strike rate achieved between July 1st (when the system launched) and December 2008. Using a 10% approach, you would have increased your starting bank by over 300%-although it has remained flat over the last 3-4 months. The level staking of all selections –both 1 Point and 2 Point- approach had a good summer but has largely remained flat for the last 3-4 months – again this was represented in our test.
One last word of caution: The new Racing Post website does not report market movers the way it used to so it is now recommended that www.oddschecker.com be the site of choice. This seems to work but the majority of results so far have been based on using Racing Post so just a flag…
So would I recommend purchasing Nailed On? Backing 10% of a bank on the 2 Point selections only, certainly seems to be a worthwhile addition to any portfolio provided some significant elements are in place: patience, discipline and a separate starting bank – yes all the key ingredients for any pro! If you can treat your betting like a long term investment, this approach should result in a profit if not setting the world alight – although the last 3 months have definitely been flat so patience is certainly important. I personally (like the author now it would seem) would not recommend level staking of all selections.
(Note, if you have already purchased Money Talks, you can obtain Nailed On for the reduced price of £40).
