Here are the results of the No1 Lay System for November, plus the Final review.
Results for November are as follows:
There were a total of 65 possible selections.
Of these 20 went on to actually qualify as bets. Most failed to qualify due to odds, but lately with the bad weather there were several non runners as well. Again due to the volume of non runners some races went off with below the minimum 10 runners, but as I explained in an early update I had decided to go with declared runners rather than actual.
So, 20 selections for the month, of which there was 1 winner @ 5.03
This resulted in a profit for the month of £140.20 to £10 level stakes @ Betfair SP, with commission of 5% deducted.
The overall profit for the test period is £235.10
Derek Nadin’s No1 Lay System is available from Sport’s World Publishing and costs £125.00, so is not cheap.
For your money you get a 5 page manual, one page is the cover, one page is the system rule’s and three page’s cover example’s of making selection’s.
Despite there being a total of 11 rules to follow, most of which are logical, the system is very easy to operate, and finding selections takes just a matter of minutes.
The review period covered 23/08/10 until 30/11/10, approx 13weeks.
During this period there were a total of 43 actual bets, approx 3.3 per week, so not a busy system.
There were 41 losing bets and 2 winners, giving a strike rate of 95.35%
The average odds of all selections was 12.39
The average odds of the winning selections was 8.72
This give an overall profit per 100 bets of 50.03 pts to 1 point level stakes, after commission of 5% has been deducted.
Selection’s tend to come in cluster’s with this system, expect multiple possible selections in the same race, 4/5 is not unusual, and multiple qualifies are also possible. This would mean having a fairly large betting bank to cover the liability of placing several bets in one race at odds of up to 17.0
A possible area of concern may be liquidity. I have to confess I have not done any investigation, but I do wonder how many people using this system the market would stand in term’s of liquidity at odds as high as 17.0
During the review period there were in fact 4 possible selection’s that did not qualify on price, that actually went on to win! Their odds were 21.0, 21.0, 22.0 and 30.0 Does this justify the max odds of 17.0? Or does it mean that big priced selections do win, but we were lucky? I don’t know the answer to that one, but on the face of it sticking to the max of 17.0 is vital!!
So in conclusion. Here we have a simple to operate system that will produce a handful of bets per week. At £125 Derek Nadin’s No1 Lay System is probably too expensive for a lot of people. Laying horse’s at an average price of 12.39 is going to be too risky for most people as well, despite the fact that the strike rate is excellent, and I calculate a return on investment of some 55% during the review period.
Would I recommend it? Well based on the result’s for the review period I would have to give it the thumb’s up, but I have a feeling this one is not going to be a best seller, and that if it were, a large number of people trying to operate it could well render it useless.