Jul 28

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 28th

Friday’s school report:

4 winners at 11/1 (returned at 7/1), 4/1 (9/4), 7/2 (9/4) & 2/1 (11/8)…..

Feeling awful this morning I’m afraid guys – Check markets/stake accordingly….

Bookmakers just love changing ground conditions – bet/stake accordingly today – I don’t want to hear of readers ‘doing their proverbials’….

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

ASCOT:

1.50: Scintillating – 4/1 (Generally available)

2.25: Escalator – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.00: Sabador – 20/1 (Generally available)

3.40: Coronet – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)

4.15: Master Brewer – 11/4 (Generally available)

4.50: My Amigo – 14/1 (Berfair/PP)

5.20: Koeman – 14/1 (365/Betway)

CHESTER:

4.55: Amazing Michele – 11/3 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

5.25: Omotesando – 9/1 (Generally available)

NEWMARKET:

2.20: Hasanoanda – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

3.15: Tirania – 11/2 (Skybet.Betfair/BetVictor)

4.00: Staxton – 9/1 (888)

5.10: Rickyroadboy – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/888)

SALISBURY:

5.45: Walkman – 12/1 (365)

6.15: Princely – 9/1 (Generally available)

6.45: Spot Lite – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.15: Corazon Espinado – 8/1 (PP/Coral)

8.15: Scrafton – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

YORK:

2.40: Golden Apollo – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.15: Fabricate – 10/1 Ladbrokes/Betway)

4.25: Arab Moon (Generally available)

5.00: Ladies First – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.35: Que Amoro – 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

LINGFIELD:

7.30: Apple Anni – 9/1 (PP)

8.30: Deciding Vote – 11/1 (Skybet/Marathon)

NEWCASTLE:

2.10: Donachies Girl – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

2,45: Rashdan – 13/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.20: Poet’s Society – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Betfair/PP)

3.55: Lucky Lucky Man – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.05: Ingleby Angel – 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

Jul 27

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Friday 27th

ASCOT – JULY 27

Six year stats for this corresponding meeting:

39 races – 14 winning favorites – All 39 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 13/2, 5/1, 5/2*, 5/2* & 6/1) – 1 runner: Austrian School (4.10)

 

  • See Nursery details for today’s two relevant race below the race by race Ascot analysis

 

1.50: Despite the odd blip here and there, Charlie Appleby remains the trainer to keep onside, as has been the case almost since day one for the Godolphin handler.  Ceratonia looks the part on paper with so many winners in the bloodline from Green Desert right through to Oasis Dream whilst ‘mum’ Rumh has sired two very good types already in Wild Illusion (for Charlie) and Really Special (Saeed Bin Suroor).  Tom Dascombe thinks a lot of Flighty Almighty but as the trainer was stressing back in the spring, she was going to need a mile sooner rather than later, she might be best watched today.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished out of the frame behind horses which were returned at 4/1, 20/1 and 7/2 when secring Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Ceratonia

 

2.25: Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last five winners of this contest whereby the chance of Production is fully respected.  Sir Michael Stoute supporters will be lumping on Almania I’ll wager though at the odds available, Lethal Guest is the win and place call with Mick Channon suggesting back in the dark days of late winter that he was “a smasher”, and Mick knows all about producing debutant winners here at Ascot albeit as memory serves, the majority of them have been fillies.

Favourite factor: Although last year’s successful (11/8) market leader was the first favourite to score in 16 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1 during the period, whereby bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.

Each way selection: Lethal Guest

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals of this Class 3 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig two years ago, with only Archie Watson live to the ‘edge’ this time around!  That said, Archie’s raider Yabass is the ‘roughie’ in the line up at 12/1, though I doubt those odds will be greatly extended by layers over the next few hours.  Similarly, if you can get 9/1 about Eye Of The Storm, I think you will be beating the book, with both runners holding each way chances from my viewpoint, even though this is a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers light like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include eight successful favourites.

Each way options: Yabass & Eye Of The Storm

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have now secured 12 of the last 16 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last seven contests. Junior raiders are 5/4 to extend their good record before the form book is consulted this time around and Beshayyir and De Fide are fancied to lift the prize between them on this occasion.  William Haggas (Beshayyir) saddled the winner last year, whilst De Fide represents decent value for money from my viewpoint at 15/2 with Bet365 early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 16 years, whilst 12 of the 16 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Flying North (good)

1/1—Beshayyir (good to firm)

Win selection: Beshayyir

Each way alternative option: De Fide

 

4.10: Mark Johnston saddles just the one runner on the card today, with Austrian School representing the yard which has snared no less than 11 winners over the course of the two day meeting during the last six years!  Silverstre De Sousa’s mount is the call accordingly, with First Nation offered up as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Great Hall (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Atty Presse (good to firm)

Win selection: Austrian School

 

4.45:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 four years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 two years ago.  Unbelievably, just one relevant horse was declared last year, with the relevant beast rewarding each way investors at 15/2 by finishing third.  Six vintage raiders have been offered the green light (trainers have smelt the coffee at last), with Show Stealer and Vibrant Chords arguably proving to be the pick of the bunch.  Aside from the five-year-olds, I respect the chance of Encore D’Or and Koditime.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed seven years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last five winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1-5/1.  15 of the last 19 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Each way selection: Vibrant Chords

 

5.15: Lady Dancealot looked too big at 11/1 from my viewpoint overnight, especially as she has finished ‘in the three’ in 6/9 races to date.  She struggles to completely last out this six furlong trip if I’m being honest though that said, her each way chance is still there to be seen. If you’re playing the exchanges during the course of the race, I would be amazed if David Elsworth’s raider did not trade as short at 6/1 at some stage of proceedings whereby potential investors should not lose out, especially with ‘Silvestre’ aboard.  Island Of Life and Procedure boast obvious claims at the other end of the market but offer no value according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: The two 5/2 favourites to date have managed just one bronze medal between them.

Win and place call: Lady Dancealot

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today:

3.45 Thirsk:

Not the easiest of races to assess, especially as No Lippy is thoroughly exposed by now, not that she has an impossible task by any means.  I am (tentatively) swayed by the fact that there was money for Prince Elzaam overnight, especially as he is still down to contest a Novice Median Auction race at York on Saturday afternoon.

6.40 Newmarket:

One of the most competitive Nursery events of the season thus far (potentially the second biggest field) in which Delft Dancer gets the marginal each way call, having already been placed in a two-year-old handicap from the same (78) mark.  Others of interest include Dombra and Even Keel.  As an added pointer, you might like to look at the aggregate weight carrying stats in Nursery races which are listed below.

 

Nursery stats this season (17 races – 118 runners – as of Friday morning – 27th July):

Favourite stats (17):                     

10 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

2/4

Winning trainers:

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/3—James Tate (9/4*)

1/4—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/10—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/10—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

51 relevant runners: 15 winners – 12 placed – 24 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

73 runners – 15 winners – 17 placed – 41 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

45 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 40 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-1

9-7 – 2–2-6

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 1-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-1

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-9

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-4

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-2-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 11 winners – 11 placed – 28 unplaced (42.2% of runners)

8-13 or less: 6 winners – 9 placed – 81 unplaced (57.6% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Charlie Hills

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Adam West

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/3—Tim Easterby

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

1–Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

6 winners—February

5—April

4—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Devils Roc (57)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

 

Jul 27

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 27th

Thursday’s school report:

Two MMA WINNERS to report from yesterday with (as usual) so many of my selections being backed off the boards – win, lose or draw.  The two gold medallists were backed from 17/2 into 3/1 & 11/4 into 6/5 before winning their respective events.

FIve others made the frame at 8/1 (returned at 5/1), 15/2 (4/1), 13/2 (13/8), 9/2 (5/1) & 4/1 (3/1)

The biggest casualties yesterday were those backed down from 11/1 to 5/1, 4/1 to 9/4 and 9/2 to 3/1 before finishing out with the washing.  Let’s hope for a little better luck today.

That said, I flagged up the two Andrew Balding runners at Sandown yesterday via my Daily Analysis guide on Wednesday (!) – one of which won at 8/1…

  • Advanced warning for the weekend as rain is meant to hit all areas which will have a dramatic effect on results from my viewpoint – stake accordingly.  Bookmakers just love changing ground conditions….
  • Given that previous statement, Hydrangea looks a tad big at 16/1 for Saturday’s ‘King George’ with Bet365 this morning – if the rains come as promised…
  • Corresponding stats/facts/trainer runners available for all six meetings today can be found below this morning’s potential movers & shakers!  Best of luck guys…

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

ASCOT:

3.00: Eye Of The Storm – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.35: De Fide – 15/2 (365)

4.10: First Nation – 7/2 (Generally available)

4.45: Show Stealer – 13/2 (Hills/Unibet/BetBright)

5.15: Lady Dancealot – 11/1 (Generally available)

CHEPSTOW:

5.50: Wahaab – 5/1 (PP/Unibet)

6.20: Iletyougonow – 11/10 (Betfair/PP)

7.50: Major Valentine – 12/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes)

NEWMARKET:

5.35: Choral Music – 6/1 (BB)

7.40: Kolo Tamam – 7/2 (PP/Betfair)

8.10: Blue Laureate – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/Unibet)

8.40: Maksab – 7/2 (Generally available)

7.40: THIRSK:

3.10: Bee Machine – 6/1 (365)

3.45: Prince Elzaam – 6/1 (Coral)

4.20: Prestbury Park – 13/2 (PP)

5.25: Penny Dreadful – 7/2 (Generally available)

YORK:

6.00: International Man – 11/1 (Generally available)

6.30: Dirchill – 13/2 (Marathon)

8.00: Fashion Theory – 9/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Billy Dylan – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

UTTOXETER:

1.40: Premier Rose – 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.10: Sonic – 2/1 (365/PP)

3.20: St Johns – 13/2 (PP)

3.55: Mr Caffrey – 6/1 (Betfair)

5.05: We’ve Got Payet – 4/1 (PP)

 

Stats and facts relating to today’s corresponding meetings down the years:

ASCOT: 

Six year stats for this corresponding meeting:

39 races – 14 winning favorites – All 39 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 13/2, 5/1, 5/2*, 5/2* & 6/1) – 1 runner: Austrian School (4.10)

 

CHEPSTOW:

Five year stats for Chepstow:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners–John O’Shea (8/1, 6/1, 9/2, 9/4* & 15/8*) – 2 runners: Major Valentine (7.50) & General Brook (8.55)

 

NEWMARKET:

Six year stats: 

42 races – 23 winning favourites – 38/42 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer: 

5 winners–Mark Johnston (16/1, 7/2**, 5/2*, 9/4** & 4/9*) – 3 runners: Delft Dancer (6.40), Masham Star (7.10) & Elegiac (8.10)

 

THIRSK: 

Six year stats: 

44 races – 18 winning favourites – 41/44 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners (all within the last five years)–Tim Easterby (Prices ranging between 7/2 & 9/1) – 9 runners today – good luck in sorting the wheat from the chaff!

 

YORK: 

Six year stats:

36 races – 11 winning favourites – 31/36 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners–David O’Meara (6/1, 6/1, 9/2*, 9/2 & 3/1) – 5 runners: Short Work (6.30), Bravery, Alfred Hutchinson & Lamloon (8.00) & Billy Dylan (8.30)

 

UTTOXETER: 

6 year stats – 39 different winning trainers – nobody standing out from the crowd!

44 races – 15 winning favourites – 42/44 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Jul 26

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 26th

Wednesday’s school report:

Just the one 7/1 WINNER (returned at 6/1) from yesterday on another quiet day – looks like are are more chances to get back to top form today!

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

DONCASTER:

6.25: Able Tasman – 13/2 (BetBright)

7.30: Archie Perkins – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/BetBright)

8.35: Wirral Girl – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

NEWBURY:

5.35: Gripper – 4/1 (Hills/BetBright/BetVictor)

6.40: To The Moon – 4/1 (365/BetVictor)

8.20: Goodnight Girl – 11/4 (Betfair/PP/Betway/BetVictor)

8.50: Lucky Louis – 15/2 (BetBright)

SANDOWN:

3.25: Dram Machine – 7/1 (PP)

4.00: Autumn Leaves – 17/2 (Ladbrokes)

YARMOUTH:

2.00: Asheena – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.05: Voice Of A Leader – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.40: Crystal Deauville – 9/2 (Generally available)

WORCESTER:

2.40: Smiling Jessica – 13/2 (Ladbroks/Cioral)

3.15: Excellent Team – 14/1 (888)

Jul 26

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Thursday 26th

SANDOWN – JULY 26

 

Six year study of this corresponding meeting:

37 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/37 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer stats on the Thursday of this two day meeting:

5 winners—Andrew Balding (9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4 & 2/1*) – 2 sets of doubles at 79/1 (2016) & 19/1 (2013) – 2 runners today: Havana Rocket (1.50) & Look Around (2.20)

 

  • Please find my Nursery service below the race by race Sandown analysis

 

1.50: Market leaders have a very good record in this contest as you can see for yourself below.  That said, this year’s renewal looks more open than some recent contests, unless the overnight exchange support for Beatboxer continues.  It looks likely that we can ignore the 6/1 trade press quote about John Gosden’s Scat Daddy raider, with 7/2 looking to be under threat at the time of writing.  Andrew Balding reported Havana Rocket to be “a lovely horse” back in the spring and this is about the time of year that the trainer believed he would be making his debut.  Given Andrew’s record at this corresponding meeting, 20/1 might be worth looking into relating to moderate win and place stakes.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have won this contest, whilst 18 market leaders have reach the frame during the study period.

Win selection: Beatboxer

Each way option: Havana Rocket

 

2.20: This ‘Star Stakes’ invariably takes some winning and that might prove to be the case again, despite the support for La Pelosa overnight.  Charlie Appleby rarely (if ever) seems to have his runners out of form (8/16 recent stats offering eight points of level profit stakes) whereby the projected favourite looks sure to take the beating.  That said however, Mark Johnston’s raider Otave is the highest rated of the sixteen Nursery winners to date this season, whilst anything that Andrew Balding saddles in the Strawbridge colours (white with a green hope) are always worth a second glance, as is Look Around who was a decent Kempton winner the last day hailing from Kingman stock.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have prevailed in the last 21 years, whilst 19 of the 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

2.55: A typically spellbinding Sandown contest which will prove fascinating to watch, both from a market activity viewpoint as well as the race itself.  Only York can hold a candle to this track in my considered opinion, given its uphill finish which has brought about so many wonderful finishes down the years under both codes.  The much missed John Lawrence (Lord Oaksey) was Sandown’s greatest admirer and he will be looking down on today’s proceedings with a smile as wide as his wonderful character.  Ghostwatch and Sexy Beast (whilst respecting the chance of Mt Augustus) should treat us to another thrilling Sandown encounter in this event.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 21 years.  However, it’s worth noting that the 8/13 market leader was beaten two years ago. 19 of the 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Ghostwatch (good)

 

3.25: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals (and eight of the last eleven), with Dorella catching the eye in the dead of night.  Eve Johnson Houghton snared this event twelve months ago en route to a 59/1 double on the card and Dorella has definite claims of doubling up on behalf of the yard from my viewpoint.  The other vintage representatives Jazeel and Hombre Casado (preferred in that order) should also be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Just four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 21 years, whilst 13 of the 3market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  19 of the last 20 winners were returned at 8/1 or less.

Win selection: Dorella

 

4.00: A lot of my interest in this event disappeared with the withdrawal of Glitterdust, though overnight support for Autumn Leaves has reignited the flame to a fashion.  Clive Cox has greeted three of his last six runners in the area reserved for winning connections of late, whereby Adam Kirby mount could be backed at 17/2 with Ladbrokes if you are quick off the mark.  Camomile Lawn is preferred to Crimson Skies as the main threat to the selection.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 9/4 market leader scrambled a Placepot position when finishing third behind horses gold and silver medallists which were sent off at 14/1 and 7/2.

Each way selection: Autumn Leaves

 

4.30: King’s Slipper deserves to carry the favourite’s tag into the race, especially given Clive Cox’s form as advertised in the previous event on the card.  Eve Johnson Houghton saddles another interesting runner at Sandown however, with Running Cloud available at 6/1 to win and place investors, albeit this is a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify relating to potential each way returns.

Favourite factor: Both of the inaugural 9/2 joint favourites finished in the frame two years back, though they had to give best to the 11/2 winner.  Last year’s 11/10 favourite duly obliged.

Win selection: King’s Slipper

Each way saver? Running Cloud

 

5.00: Dual course winner Another Boy landed this event twelve months ago, albeit six subsequent assignments have come and gone without the five-year-old adding to his tally. There is an outside chance of some rain in the Esher area today which would enhance his chance, especially as Ralph Beckett’s raider only carries 16 additional ounces one year down the line.  You will be in a better position that yours truly to detect if the any of the wet stuff arrives at Sandown later today.  Three-year-olds have won three of the last five contests, whereby Skydiving has to come into the mix alongside Jim Boyle’s hat trick seeker Duke Of North.

Favourite factor: A real mix of results to report following eight renewals of the closing contest on the card.  A couple of years have slipped by (won by 7/1 and 9/2 chances) since a hat trick of market leaders obliged between 2013/15.  The first three races were won by horses returned at 33/1, 28/1 & 25/1.

Record of the course winner in the finale:

2/3—Another Boy (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery race this evening – 7.45 Newbury:

Charlie Appleby saddles his first two-year-old handicapper of the season in this event, with Leading Spirit representing the yard.

Charlie’s Exceed And Excel gelding (lost his ‘equipment’ since his last assignment) is nigh impossible to oppose, especially when taking Charlie’s 4/9 record in the Nursery sector last year into account.

Blyton looks set the forecast position, given that Tom Dascombe has won with four of his last eight runners, stats which have produced 15 points of level stake profit.

 

Nursery stats this season (16 races – 112 runners – as of Thursday morning – 26th July):

Favourite stats (16):                     

9 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—James Tate (9/4*)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/10—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/10—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

48 relevant runners: 14 winners – 12 placed – 22 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

69 runners – 14 winners – 16 placed – 39 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

43 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 38 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-0

9-7 – 2–2-6

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 0-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-1

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-7

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-3

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-1-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/3—Tim Easterby

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tom Dascombe

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Exceed And Excel

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

1–Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

5 winners—February

5—April

4—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Blyton (81)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

 

 

Jul 25

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 25th

Tuesday’s school report:

2 MMA WINNERS to report from Tuesday at 7/1 (returned at 6/1) & 4/1 (7/2) = level stake profit as has (more often then not) been the case since the service started…..

Throw in three placed horses at 11/2 (5/1), 9/2 (3/1) and 4/1 (5/1) and all in all it was a reasonable day though the school report reads; return to more impressive results as was previously the case – Answer to assessor; Any day now!

WEDNESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

BATH:

3.00: Gallileo’s Spear – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

CATTERICK:

4.10: Merry Banter – 4/1 (Generally available)

5.10: Guardia Svizzera – 9/2 (365)

5.45: Itlaaq – 13/2 (365)

LINGFIELD:

3.20: Islay Mist – 4/1 (365/Skybet/Unibet/BetVictor)

4.50: Lady Marigold – 5/1 (Hills/Betfair)

LEICESTER:

5.30: Carlovian – 8/1 (BetBright)

7.05: Albizzia -9/1 (BetBright)

7.40: Jupiter – 11/1 (BetBright)

8.40: Christmas Night – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

SANDOWN:

5.50: Lyricas Lion – 7/1 (Hills/Marathon/BetBright)

8.30: West Drive – 14/1 (Generally available)

Jul 25

Daily Analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 25th

SANDOWN – JULY 25

Six year study of this corresponding meeting:

36 races – 12 winning favourites – 33/36 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Combined stats for this two day meeting over the last six years:

73 races – 28 winning favourites – 67/73 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer stats during the two days of the fixture:

8 winners–Andrew Balding (40/1, 9/1, 9/1, 7/1, 9/2, 11/4, 2/1* & 7/4*) – 2 runners on Thursday: Havana Rocket (1.50) & Look Around (1.50) – no runners at Sandown today

6 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (9/2, 11/4, 11/8*, 6/5*, Evens* & 1/5*) – 1 runner tomorrow: Glitterdust (4.00) – no runners at Sandown today

 

  • You can find today’s complete Nursery service below today’s Sandown race by race analysis

 

5.50: Although the ground will be plenty lively enough for Zamperini, this 72 officially rated entry stands head and shoulders above some of these runners whereby it would not come as a huge surprise if Mike Murphy’s six-year-old doubles his tally at the track this evening.  Similarly, I could offer a win and place squeak to Lunar Deity in a tough apprentice race to assess for openers.

Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the last decade, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/8—Zamperini (good to soft)

1/6—Zambeasy (good)

Two each way options: Zamperini & Lunar Deity

 

6.20: Clive Cox’s Showcasing filly Heartwarming is impossible to oppose following a fine first effort over course and distance from an unfavourable draw on her debut recently.  The fact that she was withdrawn from what should have been her debut at Nottingham on account of unfavourable (soft) ground suggests that these are her conditions which offers icing on the cake.  The only other exchange money to be sighted early doors this morning was for Symphony, though too little to be of any consequence in all probability.

Favourite factor: The three favourites thus far have secured a medal of each colour alongside Placepot positions.

 

6.55: Horses carrying 9-1 or more have won all four renewals whist securing seven of the nine available Placepot positions.  I am leaving the stats in for your records even though the ‘dead eight’ runners all qualify via the weight trend this time around.  Anonymous John and Kasbah are the two each way horses catching my attention at the time of writing, especially as there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queues on the exchanges in the dead of night.  Delegate This Lord is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint, though the attractive prices of the first named pair hold sway.

Favourite factor: The three favourites had secured one medal of each colour whilst securing Placepot positions before last year’s 7/4 market leader found one too good in a ‘win only’ contest.

Each way options: Kasbah & Anonymous John

 

7.25: Magical Effort deserves to go one better having finished second on his last three assignments, though I’ve a notion that Frank Bridge and possibly Race Day might prove too strong up the Sandown hill.  Eve Johnson-Houghton has carried on where she left off last season (three of her last eight runners have won – including a 14/1 chance) whereby course winner Frank Bridge is taken to win the day.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites (via two renewals) has claimed a Placepot position thus far whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.

Win selection: Frank Bridge

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/4—Frank Bridge (good to soft)

 

8.00: Three-year-olds have secured eight of the last eleven renewals of this event, with three of the six runners hailing from the vintage this time around.  All three junior raiders have the ability to win, though with The Last Emperor and Icart Point potentially setting up the race for others by contesting the lead, Employer is expected to make the most of first time blinkers to settle the issue close home.  Icart Point is taken to fill the forecast position.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the twelve renewals to date, with eight of the fourteen market leaders having finished in the frame.

Win selection: Employer

 

8.10: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 8-3 during the last 15 years.  Four-year-olds are around the 8/11 mark to increase their recent dominance before the form book is consulted. Just In Time should edge out Petitioner relating to the relevant quartet on this occasion, though last year’s winner West Drive looks far too big at 14/1 with a few firms this morning.  Yes, the ground will be much faster this time around but running for Gary Moore’s team for the first time, West Drive is surely worth a small stake play from a win and place perspective in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders have won during the last 21 years alongside three joint favourites.  15 of the 26 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/1—West Drive (good to soft)

Each way selection: West Drive

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Today’s Nursery event; 3.10 Catterick:

Mark Johnston is on a four-timer in the contest and Aussie View appears to have been offered a definite chance by the official assessor having been given a rating of 82.

Three horses have already won off higher marks in the two-year-old handicap sector this season.

I have plenty of respect for Jfoul whose trainer Saeed Bin Suroor saddles his first Nursery runner of the season.

Saeed boasts a 30% strike rate in this sector via 38 winners during the last 23 years since he started training in this country.  That said, Saeed is looking for this first two-year-old winner at Catterick with his fifth relevant runner at the track.  His total record (all ages) at the venue is 2/11 down the years.

 

Nursery stats this season (15 races – 104 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 25th July):

Favourite stats (15):         

8 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/2—James Tate (9/4*)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/7—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/9—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

45 relevant runners: 13 winners – 10 placed – 22 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

65 runners – 13 winners – 14 placed – 38 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

39 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 34 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 0-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-0

9-7 – 2–1-5

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 0-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-0

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-6

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-5

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-3

8-3 – 1-1-4

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-1-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tom Dascombe

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Exceed And Excel

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

 

FOALING DATES:

5 winners—February

5—April

3—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Blyton (81)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

 

Jul 24

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 24th

Monday’s school report:

3 MMA WINNERS to report from Monday at 13/2 (returned at 4/1), 6/1 (11/2) & 5/1 (11/4).

Throw in three placed horses at 12/1 (8/1), 11/2 (9/2) and 5/1 (2/1) and all in all, it wasn’t a bad start to the week at all, especially as Beverley’s Daily analysis worked out so well…

 

TUESDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

MUSSELBURGH:

2.50: Dancing On A Dream – 9/2 (PP)

3.25: Angel Force – 12/1 (PP)

3.55: New Abbey Angel – 11/2 (Generally available)

4.30: Gabrial The Tiger – 7/1 (Generally available)

NOTTINGHAM:

5.30: Pike Corner Cross – 11/2 (Generally available)

7.00: Bahamian Dollar – 4/1 (365/Hills)

8.30: Dream Serenade – 11/2 (BetBright)

FFOS LAS:

2.00: Swissal – 11/2 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

CHELMSFORD:

7.40: Pilot Wings – 11/2 (BetBright)

8.40: Etisilat – 5/1 (888)

NEWCASTLE:

1.40: Instant Attraction – 6/1 (365/888)

4.50: Franks Legacy – 4/1 (Generally available)

 

FOOTBALL SERVICE – INTERESTING PREMIER LEAGUE ODDS:

Betting without Manchester City:

7/5–Liverpool (Unibet & 888)

5/2–Manchester United (Generally available)

5/1–Chelsea (Generally available)

6/1–Tottenham (365 & 188)

9/1–Arsenal (Unibet/10Bet/888)

80/1–Bar

Whilst these odds are interesting, bookmakers are betting to 11.2% potential profit (over round book) without taking in to account the other 14 clubs!

If you fancy a bet at the advertised odds, keep the stakes small for the time being, perhaps having an interest with the bookies money if you have had a successful day.

Coupled odds suggest the following:

5/12–Either Liverpool or Manchester United will give you a profit on the bet

6/5–Either Manchester United or Chelsea will pay out

16/5–Either of the north London clubs will be successful

Best of luck guys…..

Jul 24

Daily analysis – Tuesday 24th

MUSSELBURGH – JULY 24

 

Six year corresponding details for this meeting:

42 races – 14 winning favourites – 40/42 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainers:

3 winners—Mark Johnston (9/2, 15/8 & 7/4*) – 2 runners in the 2.50 event: Kilbarchan & Dancing On A Dream

3 winners—Iain Jardine (8/1, 11/2 & 4/1) – 6 entries

Out of interest, Rebecca Bastiman secured a 23/1 double on last year’s card (winners at 6/1 & 5/2*), with trainer holding two declarations this time around, namely Jiro Boy (2.20) and Donnelly’s Rainbow (4.30).

 

Trainer stats for Chelmsford and Nottingham can be found below today’s race by race Musselburgh analysis.

 

2.20: Tim Easterby has a good few chances on the card and Twilight is likely to be a warm order to set Tim’s day off on a winning note.  That said, Eva Docc looks a tad too big at 8/1 with Bet365 whereby I wouldn’t be surprised if ‘those chalks’ are nibbled at not too long into the morning fray.

Favourite factor:  The opening race is a new event on the Musselburgh card

 

2.50: Dancing On A Dream is the ‘lesser spotted’ raider of Mark Johnston’s pair of entries and I personally doubt that the phones will be quiet in the Paddy Power office this morning, with the Irish based firm out on a limb at 9/2 about P.J’s mount.  KIlbarchan in the stable call according to jockey bookings but the probability factor of just 18% about the ‘outsider of two’ looks to small from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor:  This is another new contest on the Musselburgh programme.

Each way selection: Dancing On A Dream

 

3.25: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won five of the six contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the race.  The vintage stats suggest that Computable should be the call as Tim Easterby’s raider is one of three horses that also has the weight trend covered.  Economic Crisis is not the horse of old (finished last in this event twelve months ago) whereby connections of Computable should have most to fear from Landing Night and (arguably) Eternalist.

Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include two (5/2 11/8) winners.

Course winners in the third race:

1/1—Computable (good)

4/24—Economic Crisis (2 x good to firm & 2 x soft)

1/7—Landing Night (good to firm)

1/1—Eternalist (good to firm)

Win selection: Computable

Each way saver? Landing Night

 

3.55: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-2 have won six of the seven renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the five contests when represented. The lone vintage representative this time around is Fillydelphia, though Rachel Richardson’s mount hails from the wrong half of the weights unfortunately.  That said, Lawrence Mullaney’s Strategic Prince mare still boasts win and place claims, whilst New Abbey Angel is another with an each way shout from the wrong sector of the handicap. From a win perspective however, Pour L’Amour is the tentative shout.

Favourite factor:  Three of the eight market leaders (via seven contests) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events ay 3/1, 6/5 & 9/4**.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/10—Falcon’s Fire (good & good to firm)

 

4.30: All eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 to date. Proven course form looks set to dominate this time around however, given that the aggregate ratios of Jacob Black and Gabrial The Great stands at 6/8, whereas the other four raiders boast stats of 0/9 in Edinburgh between them.  Jacob Black has won 4/7 since rejoining the Keith Dalgleish yard which earns him the marginal vote.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course winners in the fifth race:

3/4—Jacob Black (2 x good to firm & good)

3/5—Gabrial The Tiger (Good to firm – good – soft)

 

5.00: Jan Smuts finally came good again last time out after eighteen months of unsuccessful assignments and despite a seven pound claimer in the saddle this afternoon, the ten-year-old is probably setting out on another long run where investors will simply be hoping that they will dive in on the right day, should they be so fortunate.  More obvious types today include Golden Jeffrey and Great Fighter who are listed in order of preference, albeit marginally.

Favourite factor:  All five favourites had been beaten before last year’s successful 4/6 market leader hopefully ‘turned the tide’ for favourite backers.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Great Fighter (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Golden Jeffrey (good to firm)

1/3—Four Kingdoms (good to firm)

3/16—Jan Smuts (good – good to firm – soft)

 

5.35: To save you looking up the stats, trainer John W Nicholson has yet to train a winner this side of the Irish Sea from four runners and though all handlers should be given a decent amount of chances before being cast aside, the ratio is not good enough to go plunging in at around the 7/4 mark about his raider Nora Batt from my viewpoint.  Dual course winner Thornaby Princess and Andys Girl make more appeal whilst the 50/1 chalked up about Griffin Street in the three places this morning will create some interest I’ll wager, without yours truly dipping into his pocket.

Favourite factor:  Three renewals have been contested since the only successful favourite won the inaugural race four years ago.  The subsequent gold medallists have been returned at 12/1, 6/1 & 9/2.

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/15—Imperial Legend (good to firm)

2/10—Thornaby Princess (good & good to firm)

Win selection: Thornaby Princess

Each way saver: Andys Girl

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Corresponding details from last year’s cards:

Chelmsford:

Saeed Bin Suroor landed a 4/1 double in 2017 and the trainer has declared Piece Of History (8.10) this time around.

Nottingham:

Clive Cox has entered Two Weeks (2.00) & Blitz (5.10) having secured a 12/1 at Colwick Park twelve months ago.

Jul 23

Daily analysis – Monday 23rd

BEVERLEY – JULY 23

 

Six year study of the corresponding meeting:

37 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/39 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer at this meeting during the study period

5 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2, 10/3, 11/4*, 6/4* & 4/6*) – 5 runners on the card: The Knot Is Tied (6.00), Cheeka Lola (6.30), Scoundrel (7.00) Bollin Joan & Foxy’s Spirit (9.00

Out of interest, Lawrence Mullaney has won with two of his last four runners and the trainer saddles just one runner on the card which is Captain Peaky in the finale at 9.00.

Stats from last year’s corresponding cards at Ayr & Cartmel can be found below the Beverley race by race analysis…

 

6.00: It’s not often that a meeting opens with a two mile contest on the level but that’s what we are faced with here.  It’s worth noting that eight of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, a trend that could (perhaps) should be continued with General Zoff having been declared.  That said, the 9/1 quote about Thomas Shelby is catching the eye at the time of writing.  Richard Fahey’s raider was not a ‘mover and shaker’ this morning but plenty of money is building up in the positive queue on the exchanges now and Tony Hamilton’s mount could reward win and place investors.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last eleven years.  Less than half the favourites (6/14) have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Each way selection (to moderate stakes): Thomas Shelby

 

6.30: Kevin Ryan’s Gregorian filly Queen Jo Jo did precious little wrong when finding one too good on debut over course and distance seventeen days ago.  Danny Tudhope’s mount is the obvious call, though I don’t personally back two-year-olds at around even money when they have yet to win, irrespective of how much potential they have shown.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/9 market leader duly prevailed.

 

7.00: Bondi Beach Boy has to be of each way interest in double figures this morning, given his 5/9 record at the venue.  Musharrif won this event last year and will be a popular choice, whilst Desert Ace is also entitled to plenty of respect.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last ten renewals has been claimed by a favourite during which time, two 20/1 gold medallists have reared their ugly heads.  Indeed, the winner four years ago is the only market leader to have finished in the frame (exact science) during the last decade!

Record of the six course winners in the third race:

2/4—Desert Ace (2 x good to firm)

1/13—Bosham (good to firm)

2/4—Musharrif (good firm & good to soft)

1/2—Flying Foxy (good to firm)

5/9—Bondi Beach Boy (4 x goord firm & good)

1/4—Newgate Sioux (good to firm)

Each way selection: Bondi Beach Boy

 

7.30: Three-year-olds have claimed six of the ten contests to date and it’s worth noting that vintage representative Ideal Candy is attracting support on the exchanges this morning.  Bit Of A Quirke is attempting to make it 6/7 at the track which is a remarkable scenario given his 1/21 record at other venues to date!

Favourite factor: Three of the last seven contests have been won by market leaders, whilst the last nine gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/2.  Six of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

5/6—Bit Of A Quirke (3 x good to firm & 2 x good)

Speculative each way call against Bit Of A Quirke: Ideal Candy

 

8.00: David O’Meara finally has his team running consistently and as the top three in the market are difficult to separate from my viewpoint, I’ll wager that David’s Three Saints Bay can finish in the frame at a double figure price – though only with your money!  If I had to choose between the top three in the betting, I guess I would opt for Proud Archi, given his 3/6 record at the track (1/17 elsewhere).

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has finished in the frame via just two renewals, albeit the horse in question won as one of the 4/1 co favourites two years ago.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth event on the card:

3/6—Proud Archi (2 x good to firm & good)

1/2—Equitant (good to firm)

 

8.30: Faye McManorman is proving to be a useful pilot under her seven pound claim which might enable Allux Boy to finish in the money, not that trainer Nigel Tinkler and I ‘team up’ to good effect as a general rule.  Faye has ridden five of her eleven winners thus far for Nigel, whereby I might not even be able to stop the bandwagon from rolling on successfully this evening…

Favourite factor: Detectives are still looking for the two favourites which have both finished out of the frame

 

9.00: Captain Peaky attracts the eye here with Lawrence Mullaney having saddled a winner on this corresponding card in each of the last two years at 12/1 and 5/1. Throw in the fact that two of the trainer’s last four runners have obliged and we have a reasonable 10/1 chance (available with three firms) on our side in the lucky last.

Favourite factor: One (6/4) favourite has scored via three contests thus far.

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/2—Iberica Road (good to firm)

2/12—John Caesar (2 x soft)

1/11—Outlaw Torn (good to firm)

Each way selection: Captain Peaky

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Corresponding stats from two of last year’s other corresponding cards:

Ayr:

Keith Dalgleish secured a 109/1 double, though the trainer has eight horses to sift through there today….

 

Cartmel:

Two trainers landed doubles on the card in 2017. Martin Todhunter (12/1) has two entries: Chocolate Noir (2.45) & Wisty (4.25).

Peter Bowen (10/1) saddles three: Court King (2.45), Trafalgar Rock (3.50) & Earthmoves (4.55).  It’s as well to note that Peter has saddled five of his last twelve runners to winning effect…

 

Best of luck today guys….

 

 

 

 

Jul 23

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 23rd

Sunday’s school report:

10 MMA horses offered yesterday which was reduced down to nine via a non runner.

TWO WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 7/2) & 5/1 (9/4) – whilst four others rewarded each way followers at 16/1 (6/1), 8/1 (6/1), 5/1 (11/4) & 4/1

  • Yesterday’s Nursery report is listed below for those who missed the work offered on Sunday…

 

MONDAY (Very quiet this morning – stake accordingly):

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 7.15 am)

AYR:

4.40: Universal Gleam – 10/3 (Skybet/Betfait/BetVictor)

5.10: Question Of Faith – 9/2 (Betfair)

 

BEVERLEY:

7.30: Ideal Candy – 13/2 (Ladbrokes)

 

WINDSOR:

5.40: Sarstedt – 13/2 (Skybet/PP/Unibet/BetVictor)

6.40: Goodnight Girl – 5/1 (Generally available)

7.10: Quench Dolly (6/1 (Generally available)

8.10: Moving Forward – 11/2 (Generally available)

8.40: Glorious Amy – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

CARTMEL:

2.45: Camillas Wish – 10/1 (Generally available)

4.25: Nicholas Chauvin – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.55: Shake It Up – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

5.25: Iolani – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

 

YESTERDAY’S SPECIAL NURSERY REPORT FOR THOSE WHO MISSED THE OFFERING:

Next schedules two-year-old handicaps:

Wednesday: 3.10 Catterick

Thursday: 7.45 Newbury

Friday: 3.45 Thirsk & 6.40 Newmarket

Saturday: 5.35 York

 

Nursery stats this season (15 races – 104 runners – as of Monday morning – 23rd July):

Favourite stats (15):         

8 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/2—James Tate (9/4*)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/7—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/9—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

45 relevant runners: 13 winners – 10 placed – 22 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

65 runners – 13 winners – 14 placed – 38 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

39 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 34 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 0-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-0

9-7 – 2–1-5

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 0-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-0

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-6

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-5

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-3

8-3 – 1-1-4

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-1-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tom Dascombe

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Exceed And Excel

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

 

FOALING DATES:

5 winners—February

5—April

3—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Blyton (81)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

 

 

Jul 22

Daily analysis – Sunday 22nd

NEWTON ABBOT – JULY 22

 

Six year corresponding details relating to this meeting:

42 races – 16 winning favourites – 39/43 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading represented trainer:

4 winners—Paul Nicholls (9/2, 7/4, 6/4** & 4/9*) – 1 runner today: Capeland (2.25)

 

Similar stats/facts available for today’s other meetings at Redcar & Stratford follow Newton Abbot’s race by race analysis below – alongside current Nursery stats for this season, even though the next two-year-old handicap is not scheduled until Wednesday.

 

1.50: Six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-3 via the last nine renewals with the younger set looking to have a definite edge this time around, mainly via the declaration of Push The Tempo.  That said, Cotton Club really should be winning here, especially with trainer Dr Richard Newland having saddled seven of his last eleven runners to winning effect.  You might like to note his other runners today at Stratford which are listed below in the relevant sector.

Favourite factor:  Favourites have won five of the last ten renewals of this event though that said, three of the other six market leaders during the period finished out with the washing.  Twelve of the winners during an extended period were returned at a top price of 7/1, the other events having been secured by 33/1 and 14/1 outsiders.

Win Selection: Cotton Club

 

2.25: Backing Paul Nicholls runners at Newton Abbot at this stage of the season last year was tantamount to printing your own money, the trainer boasting a ratio of 10/15, stats which had produced 16 points of level stake profits at the time.  Paul’s ratio this year (1/18) is extremely poor by comparison, though everyone in the west-country (and beyond) knows the money is only leant to the bookmakers and inmate Capeland could get the better of Irish raider Ornua in receipt of at least two pounds dependent on whether the relevant jockey enjoyed a hearty breakfast…

Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured two gold and a pair of silver medals though unfortunately from a Placepot perspective, one of the relevant silver medallists contested a ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the five renewals thus far, the other two contests have been claimed by horses which were returned at 7/1 & 11/8.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Capeland (good)

Win selection: Capeland

 

3.00: I could have gone skint down the years by backing Jonjo’s favourites in all honesty and not because the relevant market leaders were beaten regularly you understand. I just didn’t have the knack of picking the right ones, it’s as simple as that.  That said, Tidal Watch should complete his hat trick on behalf of the yard in this grade/company with the minimum of fuss. You will be pleased to hear however (if you are wading in), that my money will not be riding ‘on his back’ given the cramped odds on offer.

Favourite factor: The three market leaders (via just two renewals) have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety thus far.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Petrify (good)

 

3.35: Six of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-5 with Kilfinichen Bay appearing to be the clear pick of the three relevant entries on this occasion. Course and distance winner Charlie Mon is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) during which time, three favourites (2/1, 5/4 & 3/1) have prevailed from a win perspective.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Charlie Mon (good)

Win Selection: Kilfinichen Bay

 

4.10: Neil Mulholland has won both renewals to date whereby I would not be too quick to write of his 66/1 chance Molliana though according to the form book, the race should principally rest between Cracker Factory and Boko Fittleworth, not that I will be having an interest in proceedings.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing in events like today’s contest, labelled as ‘short field’ races.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

 

4.45: I’ll start with Neil Mulholland again here as I have an inkling that his gelding Highbury High could outrun his 12/1 quote in places this morning, from an each way perspective at least.  As far as winning the race is concerned, the relevant prices force me to side the Top Chief over As You Like.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newton Abbot card.

Record of the course winner in the penultimate contest:

2/6—Fear Glic (good to firm & good to soft)

Each way selection: Highbury High

 

5.20: The lone course winner Lincoln County must have a chance of rewarding connections which some sort of prize money I’ll wager, though the 4/1 on offer about Chato earlier this morning caught the eye which I found impossible to resist, albeit to moderate stakes.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders have snared gold and bronze medals to date.

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/1—Lincoln County (good)

Win Selection: Chato

Each way saver? Lincoln County

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding details relating to the meeting at Stratford:

43 races – 13 winning favourites – 37/43 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainers:

3 winners—Dr Richard Newland (3/1, 13/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Chef De Troupe (2.10) & Verne Romanee (3.55)

3 winners—Olly Murphy (61/1 treble on last year’s card via winners at 10/1, 11/8 & 11/8*) – 3 runners: Knight Commander (2.45), Ordo An Chap (3.20) & Craigmor (5.05)

 

Five year corresponding details relating to the meeting at Redcar:

40 races – 18 winning favourites – 39/40 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer:

4 winners—Richard Fahey (5/1, 9/2, 3/1 & 4/9*) – 5 runners: Hoffa, Kingson & Youmustrememberthis (2.00), Billy Bond (3.10) & Powerallied (4.55)

 

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 

Nursery stats this season (15 races – 104 runners – as of Sunday morning – 22nd July):

Favourite stats (15):         

8 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/2—James Tate (9/4*)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/7—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/9—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

45 relevant runners: 13 winners – 10 placed – 22 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

65 runners – 13 winners – 14 placed – 38 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

39 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 34 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 0-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-0

9-7 – 2–1-5

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 0-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-0

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-6

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-5

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-3

8-3 – 1-1-4

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-1-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tom Dascombe

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Exceed And Excel

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

 

FOALING DATES:

5 winners—February

5—April

3—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Blyton (81)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

 

 

 

 

Jul 22

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 22nd

Saturday’s school report:

4 MMA WINNERS on Saturday at 10/1 (returned at 4/1), 7/2 (2/1), 3/1 (11/10) & 5/2 (11/4).

Barend Boy was nominated as the horse to consider at Lingfield – won at 11/4 – albeit with a different jockey than advertised!

David O’Meara was the top in form trainer highlighted – 4/10 won – Two of them at 8/1….

….NOTWITHSTANDING THE 16/1 + 50/1 first and second place results via three horses to consider in yesterday’s ‘Super Sprint’ at Newbury.  The winner was available at 28/1 this time yesterday morning as was highlighted at the time!

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 8.00 am)

NEWTON ABBOT:

3.35: Guerilla Tactics – 5/1 (Generally available)

4.10: Lyn’s Secret – 14/1 (Generally available)

4.45: Top Chief – 11/2 (PP)

5.10: Chato – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/Betway/BetVictor)

 

REDCAR:

3.10: Majestic Stone – 16/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

4.20: God Willing – 5/1 (Generally available)

4.55: Powerallied – 5/1 (Marathon/Unibet/PP)

6.00: Dew Pond – 17/2 (365/BetVictor)

 

STRATFORD:

2.45: Iniesta – 6/1 (PP/Boyle/BetBright/BetVictor)

3.55: Theflyingportrait – 8/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP/888)

 

Best prices in the Open Championship:

21/10–J Spieth (Betfair)

11/2–X Schauffele (Marathon/Boyle/Bet Stars)

13/2–K Kisner (Generally)

16/1–F Molinari (Betfred)

18/1–T Woods (Betfair/PP/Black Type)

18/1–R McIlroy (Black Type)

22/1–K Chappell (Generally available)

22/1–T Fleetwood (Sportingbet)

35/1–Bar

Jul 21

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 21st

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 8.00 am)

NEWBURY:

1.50: Emotionless – 5/2 (Unibet)

2.25: Almoghared – 7/1 (Generally available)

3.00: Invincible Army – 13/2 (Unibet)

3.35: Red Balloons – 8/1 (Unibet)

 

NEWMARKET:

2.45: Worth Waiting – 10/1 (365/Boyle/BetBright)

3.25: Chez Vegas – 20/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Silver Qaurtz – 8/1 (Generally available)

 

HAYDOCK:

6.30: Massam – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.30: Outcrop – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.00: Ingleby Hollow – 3/1 (Marathon)

8.30: Celerity – 80/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

RIPON:

2.20: Cherry Cola – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

4.40: Weellan – 7/2 (888)

 

LINGFIELD:

6.15: Deep Sea – 4/1 (365/BetVictor)

6.45: Spice War – 9/2 (365/Sportingbet)

7.15: May Remain – 11/2 (Hills/Betway/BetBright)

7.45: Raskolnikov – 7/1 (Hills/Ladbrokes)

8.45: Arctic Flower – 18/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

CARTMEL:

4.15: Ripstick– 14/1 (Generally available)

5.25: David’s Pheobe – 10/3 (PP)

 

MARKET RASEN:

2.05: Two horses to consider: Hassle – 17/2 (Betfair/PP) & Je Suis Charlie – 11/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetBright/Sportingbet)

3.15: Two horses to consider: Shantou Village – 12/1 (Hills) & Not A Role Model – 25/1 (365)

3.50: Voodoo Doll – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.00: Old Salt – 3/1 (Marathon/888)

 

The service will be back to normal (whatever that is!) by Monday, when I have fully caught up with results, Nursery details etc….

Have a great day – see you on the morrow….

Jul 21

Daily analysis – Saturday 21st

NEWBURY – JULY 21

 

(In form trainer details and points to consider at other venues today follow Newbury’s race by race analysis)…..

 

Corresponding details for the past six years at Newbury:

Races: 42 – 12 winning favourites – 38/42 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer during the study period:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (8/1, 6/1, 5/1, 4/1, Evens*) – 4 runners today: Hochfeld (2.25), Indian Sounds (4.10), Rebel Assault (4.45) & Lake Volta (5.20)

Out of interest – Jim Crowley rode a 34/1 double on last year’s Newbury card, with six rides booked for this afternoon at the Berkshire venue.  If Jim fails to land a blow this time around, it might be worth considering the fact that after his last mount at 5.20, Jim scuttles off to Lingfield to ride just one horse at the track at 7.45; namely Barend Boy.

 

1.50: First Sitting is an interesting double priced raider, especially with Gerard Mosse boasting a 33% record for Chris Wall (3/9) down the years.  That said, Emotionless should give investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Charlie Appleby having saddled six of his last eleven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Although three of the last five (10/11, 9/4 & 5/2**) have gone the way of favourites, they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last eleven years, with four of ten winners having been returned in double figures, ranging between 10/1 & 28/1.  That said, six of the last eleven favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the opening race on the card:

1/1—Desert Encounter (good)

1/4—Spark Plug (good)

Win Selection: Emotionless

Each way saver? First Sitting

 

2.25: I’m more than a tad surprised that the only course winner in the field (under these conditions) is quoted as a 28/1 chance in some lists, given that Stars Over The Sea is representing Ian Williams who saddles so many winners over both codes of the sport at all kinds of prices. Form students might point to the likes of Quloob and Almoghared, notwithstanding the Irish raider Stratum.  I respect the chances of the other home based runners, though Ian might be celebrating another big priced winner on the flat this evening, though I’ll settle for 7/1 place money (thereabouts) if that’s the way the race pans out.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.

Record of course winner in the second event:

1/2—Stars Over The Sea (good to firm)

Each Way selection: Stars Over The Sea

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals of this (Group 3) Hackwood Stakes, yet only two vintage representatives have been offered chances on this occasion.  Three-year-olds do not have a good recent record in the contest, though that did not stop vintage raiders securing 14/20 renewals of the race from a period starting back in 1986.  I’ll take two of the older horses Projection and Bacchus to lead home the pick of the younger set, which I believe to be Invincible Army over Equilateral.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years with 13 market leaders having claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/2—Bacchus (good to firm)

1/1—Never Back Down (good to firm)

 

3.35: ‘Team Hannon’ have claimed five gold and four silver medals via the last 13 contests in this ‘Super Sprint‘, whilst also saddling a quartet of fourth placed horses for good measure.  Richard saddles just two runners today, namely Its the Only Way and a potentially live outsider in Ginger Nut.  Richard Fahey has claimed three of the last five renewals but saddles six contenders today whereby I will let you be the judge of Richard’s sextet this afternoon.  Others for the melting pot include Eve Johnson Houghton’s pair Tin Hat and Buckingham, whilst Moojim could outrun his 50/1 quote for Bryan Smart’s shrew team. If Cookupastorm proves to be a springer in the market (one of many potentially), Richard Spencer recent course winner could reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have scored via the last 18 contests.  Eleven of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.  Four of the last eight favourites have won which is a really positive return in such a competitive event, with the 2013 market leader having been beaten by just a neck.

Three outsiders to consider: Moojim, Cookupastorm & Ginger Nut

Record of the course winner in the 2YO ‘Super Sprint’:

1/1—Cookupastorm (good to firm)

 

4.10: The price of Wise Council is brought about by the form line of his one race (here at Newbury) to date which is proving to be a solid yardstick at this still relatively early stage of the two-year-old season.  There is some semi-serious money developing at a realistic price regarding the Charlie Hills newcomer Conspirator which makes for interesting reading, especially at Charlie’s local venue.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leaders failed to oblige finding on too good (by half a length) twelve months ago.

 

4.45: Homeopathic should be the horse to beat stepping up in trip which is likely to suit Sir Michael Stoute’s Dark Angel filly who looks ready for this one mile test.  That said, pundits are overlooking the chance of Mark Johnston’s Rebel Assualt too quickly from my viewpoint, given that the trainer has snared the last two renewals of this event when represented.

Favourite factor: Only one (6/5) favourite has prevailed during the last ten renewals during which time, four market leaders finished in the frame.  To be entirely fair, last year’s event was of the ‘win only’ variety which puts things into perspective I guess.

Record of the course winner in the penultimate contest:

1/3—Madeleine Bond (good)

Each way selection: Rebel Assault

 

5.20: Mark Johnston (reminding you of Mark’s good record at this meeting) signs off with Lake Volta this afternoon, with connections possibly having most to fear from Amazour, especially is money arrives for Ismail Mohammed’s raider.

Favourite factor: Both favourites finished nearer last than first when missing out on Placepot positions before last year’s 11/4 market leader lost out by a neck in a ‘dead eight’ event which opened the programme, rather than closing procedures this time around.

Win selection: Lake Volta

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Current in form trainers in general terms include:

7/22—David O’Meara (includes winners at 16/1 & 15/2), though David has 12 runners to sift through today – good luck!

4/7—John Gosden – 3 runners today

4/9—Alan King (2 runners)

 

Points to consider at other tracks today:

Dan Skelton landed a 7/1 double at the corresponding Market Rasen meeting last year – Dan has seven entries today.

Tim Easterby has seven runners to consider at Ripon this afternoon having secured a 74/1 double at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.  Tim’s seven runners are his only declarations anywhere today…

 

Jul 14

Daily Analysis – Saturday 14th + following days

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY 14th + following days

 

  • Latest updated Nursery facts and comment for today’s two-year-old handicap at York (5.20) can be found below Newmarket’s race by race analysis:

 

1.05: Blow By Wind was the subject of some overnight support and I make Mark Johnston’s raider the main threat to Quorto, representing value for money from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1

Each way selection: Blown By Wind

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Neverland Rock (good to firm)

1/1—Quarto (good to firm)

 

1.40: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 23 of the last 27 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last seven winners, whilst five-year-olds have snared four of the last seven contests. My quartet against the field taking into account the facts and stats comprises of Gilgamesh, Burnt Sugar, Makzeem and Love Dreams.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last fifteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on ten occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty two market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Each way selection: Burnt Sugar

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/3—Love Dreams (soft)

1/2—Makzeem (good to soft)

1/1—Cardsharp (good)

1/2—Tupi (good to firm)

1/2—Mountain Rescue (good)

1/3—Von Blucher (good to firm)

 

2.15: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn. Limato is good on his day (won this race two year ago) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereby some of the horses towards the front of market look set to dominate, particularly the duo of Blue Point and U S Navy Flag.  If you are looking for an extreme outsider to consider, you could do worse that have an each speculative stake on Sir Dancealot.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 16 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Speculative each way selection: Sir Dancealot

Record of the three course winner in the July Cup:

1/2—Limato (good)

1/2—Sir Dancealot (good to firm)

1/2—Invincible Army (good to firm)

 

2.50: Assembly Of Truth should take the beating, with Spanish Aria proving to be the main threat in all probability. Both horses have been the subject of support overnight and if you are playing the Placepot today, I cannot visualise both runners finishing out of the frame, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and two silver medals thus far.

Win selection: Assembly Of Truth

 

3.20: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more and it’s worth noting that just 21 ‘qualifiers’ have run in total via the last five contests to produce decent priced winners at 12/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around and I prefer the chances of First Contact, Moqarran and Clubbable against the other pair, listing the trio in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Win selection:

 

3.55: 19 of the last 21 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (4/7 qualify) from my viewpoint are PERFECTION and CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 21 years, whilst 15/27 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Perfection

Record of the course winner in the sixth contest on the card:

1/2—Poetic Charm (good to firm)

 

4.30: Three-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer. I’m taking Drill to beat Mapped in the finale.

Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 9/1, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 15/8) favourites.

Win selection: Drill

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery race today: 5.20 York – Next week’s schedules two-year-old handicaps are listed at the foot of the column with relevant stats.

5.20 York: Four newcomers in the two-year-old sector and having shown reasonable form to date, I can only report realistic exchange support for The Great Heir and Blyton in the dead of night.  I would expect the winner to emerge from this pair.

 

Nursery stats this season (8 races – 56 runners – updated from yesterday):

Favourite stats (8):

3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/6—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

24 relevant runners: 7 winners – 4 placed – 13 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

34 runners – 7 winners – 7 placed – 20 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

22 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 19 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-7

One at 9-3

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-11

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-7

One at 9-6

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Michael Bell

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/3—Mick Channon

0/3—Tom Dascombe

0/3—Sylvester Kirk

0/4—Richard Hannon

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

Unplaced x 2 – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

 

Next week’s scheduled Nursery events:

Monday:

2.45 Ripon – This is a new Nursery event – no history

Tuesday:

2.45 Bath – 4/5 of the renewals have been won by market leaders.  Two of the five winners carried 9-7 to victory though conversely, the other three gold medallists carries 8-13 or less.

Wednesday:

No two-year-old handicaps scheduled

Thursday:

4.20 Leicester – Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners, with Mark having two options for Thursday’s event.  Two of the four renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst the last three gold medallists carried a minimum weight of 9-4

5.55 Doncaster – All five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst three market leaders have obliged to date.

Friday: 2.20 Nottingham – No details were available at the time of writing

 

 

Jul 14

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 14th + following days

Friday’s school report:

6 MMA WINNERS at 12/1 (returned at 11/1), 9/2 (7/2), 3/1 (11/4), 3/1 (same price), 5/2 (5/4) & Evens (6/5)

  • Please note that I am on holiday for a week now (just today’s Daily analysis to post on another page very soon) – though I have listed details for the whole week in this ‘edition’ – wishing you the very best of luck in running until my return….

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 8.15 am)

ASCOT:

12.45: Line Of Reason – 8/1 (Betfair/PP/BetBright)

1.20: Lord Glitters – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.05: Capton – 9/1 (Skybet/Sunbets/BetBrighton/BetVictor)

CHESTER:

2.40: Peggy’s Angel – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/ Unibet)

3.15: Lake Volta – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.55: Mr Wagyu (Betfair/PP/Coral)

HAMILTON:

7.00: Muatadel – 15/2 (BetBright)

8.00: Life Knowledge – 9/2 (Generally available)

8.30: Let Life Be Done – 25/1 (Betfair/PP)

NEWMARKET:

1.05: Blown By Wind – 9/1 (Boyle/BetBright)

1.40: Burnt Sugar – 20/1 (365)

SALISBURY:

6.15: Danecase – 15/2 (BetBright)

6.45: Nawar – 11/4 (Ladbrokes)

YORK:

1.55: Muthmir – 7/2 (365/Hills/Sunbets/BetBright/BetVictor)

2.35: Time To Study – 5/1 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

4.15: Master Archer – 11/2 (Hills/888)

NEWTON ABBOT:

3.25: Southfield Vic – 11/2 (Generally available)

4.00: Sedgemore Express – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.35: Bumble Bay – 10/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle)

5.05: New Millennium – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

 

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

5/11—France (Unibet/888)

2/1—Croatia (365/Skybet)

 

Best prices for Sunday’s Final (4.00 kick off):

19/20—France (188)

119/50—Draw (Marathon)

81/20—Croatia (Marathon)

All of the other prices for the final are included in Sunday’s details

 

TODAY’S 3RD/4TH PLAY OFF MATCH:

BELGIUM V BELGIUM – 3pm kick off

13/10—Belgium (Generally available)

14/5—Draw (Marathon)

11/5—England (Betfair)

Half time betting:

29/16—Belgium (188)

7/5—Draw (Betfair)

45/17—England (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/4–Belgium/Belgium (Bet Stars)

29/2–Belgium/Draw (188)

30/1–Belgium/England (188)

26/5–Draw/Belgium (Marathon)

11/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

73/10–Draw/England (Marathon)

25/1–England/Belgium (Skybet/188)

15/1–England/Draw (Betfair)

43/10– England/England (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

5/9 (YES) – (Sunbets)

17/10 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

151/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

8/13–2.5 goals or more (Skybet/Bet Stars)

4/7–under 3.5 goals (188)

6/4–3.5 goals or more (Generally available)

Correct scores:

7/1—1-1 draw (Bet Stars)

9/1—2-1 Belgium (Bet Stars/365)

11/1—2-1 England (365/Skybet/BetStars)

12/1—1-0 Belgium (Bet Stars)

12/1—2-2 draw (Bet Stars)

14/1—2-0 Belgium (Bet Stars/365)

14/1—1-0 England (Bet Stars/365/Betfair)

18/1—0-0 draw (Bet Stars)

20/1—2-0 England (365)

 

SUNDAY:

Aggregate stats from last year’s corresponding meetings:

23 races – 11 winning favourites – All 23 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

PERTH:         

7 races – 4 winning favourites – All 7 winners scored at a top price of 4/1

Trainer Lisa Harrison secured a 15/1 double on the card – 3 runners on Sunday: Solway Berry (2.00), Solway Lark (4.10) & Green Zone (5.15)

STRATFORD:

8 races – 5 winning favourites – All 8 winners scored at a top price of 4/1

SOUTHWELL (NH):

8 races – 2 winning favourites – All 7 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE…..

WORLD CUP FINAL:

FRANCE V CROATIA – 4pm kick off

19/20—France (188)

119/50—Draw (Marathon)

81/20—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

7/4—France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

19/20—Draw (Unibet/888)

97/20—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time/Full time odds:

9/4–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

37/2–France/Draw (188)

66/1–France/Croatia (Berfair)

19/5–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

18/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888)

10/1–Draw/Croatia (Marathon)

33/1–Croatia/France (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral)

19/1–Croatia/Draw (Marathon)

42/5– Croatia/Croatia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

10/7 (YES) – (Unibet/888)

13/20 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

53/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

19/10–2.5 goals or more (Black Type)

2/13–under 3.5 goals (Generally available)

5/1–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/188)

Correct scores:

19/4—1-0 France (Bet Stars)

6/1—1-1 draw (365/Bet Stars/BetVictor/Sportingbet)

6/1—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888/BetVictor)

15/2—2-0 France (Bet Stars)

10/1—2-1 France (Bet Stars)

10/1—1-0 Croatia (Bet Stars)

18/1—2-1 Croatia (365/Skybet/Bet Stars)

25/1—2-2 draw (188)

28/1—2-0 Croatia (Unibet/888)

 

DETAILS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK:

 

MONDAY:

AYR:

Class 5 – All aged handicap – 6 furlongs – scheduled for 2.30:

Jim Goldie has won three of the last four renewals – 5 options

Class 5 – All aged handicap – 1 mile – scheduled for 4.40:

Six-year-olds have won 3/5 renewals – favourites on a four-timer

 

RIPON: This is a new meeting

 

WINDSOR:

2YO Novice Stakes – 6 furlongs – scheduled for 6.20

Favourite have won 3/5 renewals – alongside 20/1 & 11/1 chances

2YO Maiden – five furlongs – scheduled for 6.50

Last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 – includes three successful market leaders

Fillies handicap – 1 mile – scheduled for 8.50

Three-year-olds have won the last eight renewals – 3 winning favourites

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Nothing worth mentioning in dispatches

 

TUESDAY:

BATH:

Class 5 – All aged handicap – extended 11 furlongs – schedules for 2.20

Top priced winner of 9/2 via five renewals, though we still await the first successful favourite

Nursery event – 5 furlongs – scheduled for 2.50

Favourites of one description or another have won 4/5 contests to date

Summer Sprint series – scheduled for 3.20:

Nine winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 – three winning favourites

‘Bristol Handicap’ – scheduled for 4.20

All six winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, though there is just the one successful market leader to report thus far.

 

BEVERLEY:

Ollie Pears landed a 41/1 double at the corresponding meeting last year.

 

THIRSK:

Class 5 – All aged 12 furlong handicap – scheduled for 7.10

The three winners to date have been returned at 801, 7/1 & 13/2

Class 5 – 3YO handicap – One mile – scheduled for 8.10

All four winners have carried 9-1 or less (two winning favourites)

Class 5 – 7 furlong fillies’ handicap – scheduled for 8.40

The four winners to date scored at 33/1, 17/2, 6/1 & 9/2

 

WORCESTER:

Jonjo O’Neill secured a short priced (5/1) double at this meeting at Worcester in 2017.

 

CHELMSFORD: This is a new meeting

 

WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS:

YARMOUTH: Two trainers landed 12/1 doubles at last year’s corresponding meeting, namely Roger Varian & David Simcock.

 

THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS:

CHEPSTOW: Stuart Kittow was the trainer in form at last year’s corresponding fixture when landing a 13/1 double.

HAMILTON: Iain Jardine secured a 21/1 double at last year’s corresponding fixture.

 

FRIDAY:

HAYDOCK: Last year’s meeting was abandoned after the third race due to the tragic death of a stalls handler at Haydock.

NOTTINGHAM: Clive Cox secured a 21/1 double at Nottingham twelve months ago.

HAMILTON: Keith Dalglish blasted the layers via a 219/1 treble at last year’s corresponding fixture.

 

Finally, I should be back on Saturday – that’s the plan at the time of writing anyway – wishing you the very best of luck in running this week!

P.S. – It’s not all fun and games this end though, as I have to report to a hospital during the week to check for potential blood clots in my leg + injections – they won’t even allow me to enjoy a week’s holiday in peace!

 

Jul 13

Daily analysis – Friday 13th

NEWMARKET – FRIDAY

  • Not forgetting three Nursery race today – the details of which follow the race by race analysis for Newmarket…..

1.50: I suggested last year that 33/1 placed horse Swift Approval was worth chancing from an each way perspective, with the Stuart Williams raider attempting to follow up his victory in the contest the previous year.  Sure enough, Stuart goes to the well again and there seems no logical reason why his six-year-old should not go very close to winning, especially with Silvestre De Sousa in the plate.  Plenty of bookmakers are offering 4/1 at the time of writing and though only seven runners face the starter, even money a place could be tempting plenty of you to back Stuart’s raider each way this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have won, though the other 11/4 market finished out with the washing.

Win selection: Swift Approval

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

2/3—Swift Approval (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Saluti (good to soft)

2/4—Maksab (2 x goof to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that Unibet should be swamped with interest in one (each way) horse this afternoon, if you take a look at the overnight activity information below. Indeed, Angels Hideaway would always have attracted my attention anyway but the odds in place demand serious win and place action from my viewpoint.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than Come On Leicester I’ll wager, though Gossamer Wings looks more of a threat from a win perspective with Aidan O’Brien chasing a hat trick in the contest this time around.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen favourites have won whilst 16/23 market leaders finished in the frame in the process.

Each way selection: Angels Hideaway

Overnight market activity:

Unibet look well over the top with their 7/1 quote about Frankie’s mount Angels Hideaway this morning…

 

3.00: Mark Johnston was denied a five-timer in the race last year whereby it would be unwise to put a line though his two 14/1 chances this morning over your favourite beverage. Indeed, the each way chances of both Communique and Poet’s Prince are respected, albeit my idea of the winner of this year’s renewal is Wissahickon who was the subject of exchange activity overnight.

Favourite factor: 11 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last eleven gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

Win selection: Wissahickon

Each Way savers: Your chosen Mark Johnston representive!

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Chief Ironside (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

I would be surprised if Wissahickon starts bigger than 11/4 today which was still available at the time of writing with Betfair & Paddy Power

 

3.35: Many people thought the victory of Alpha Centauri was the highlight of the week at Royal Ascot recently and it’s difficult to argue with that point of view.  Racegoers could have been forgiven if thinking that Jessica Harrington had slipped a colt into the fillies event by the way she won, notwithstanding her physique which impressed good judges in the parade ring prior to the contest. Clemmie’s course victory was gained in the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on this day last year and she looks to be the only danger to the selection.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Win selection: Alpha Centauri

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Clemmie (good to firm)

 

4.10: This is something of a guessing game in all honesty and at this time of day (before the whispers have started to gain momentum), I can merely offer the fact that the only horses for semi-serious money are Mount Tabora and Art Du Val at the time of writing.  Apologies for not being of any more use early doors….

Favourite factor: Nine clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  15/27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just ten Placepot positions via 127 representatives during the study period.

 

4.45: Alan King was sweet on the chance of Elgin when interviewed on the television yesterday and there seems no reason why the relevant connections should be disappointed in this grade/company.  Hamada is the obvious potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.

Record of the three course winners in the sixth contest:

1/1—Hochfield (good to firm)

1/2—Natural Scenery (good to firm)

2/3—Fire Jet (good & good to firm)

 

5.20: Corrosive ran well enough in the ‘Brittania’ at the royal meeting a few weeks back to suggest that a similar effort could be good enough to win today.  Ripp Orf is a typical David Elsworth raider who is difficult to ignore.  It’s also reasonable to suggest that investors in Vitamin will have plenty to shout about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Although three market leaders (one being a joint favourite) have won during the last decade, it’s only right to point out that six gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 7/1 and 50/1.

Win selection: Corrosive

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/2—Roll On Rory (good to firm)

2/3—Vitamin (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Plenty of racegoers will be latching onto Corrosive at 3/1 (generally available) this morning I’ll wager in the ‘getting out stakes’ in case luck has deserted them in the first six races on the card.  If I was going to Newmarket today, I would make that move a.s.a.p. to cover any losses at the track in earlier contests…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

2.50 Ascot: Even money (Bet365 & BetVictor) is not exactly a working man’s price but that said, a winner is a winner in any language and Semoum should oblige at what is likely to be an odds on price before too long this morning I’ll wager.  It’s worth noting however that only one of the two odds on favourites in Nursery races this season, whereby ‘sensible stakes’ should be the order of the day if you do fancy George Peckham’s impressive Ripon winner.  James Watt looks to be the main threat.

4.25 York: It’s a little surprising to find 7/4 (Paddy Power) offered about Eve Johnson Houghton’s hat trick seeker Oberyn Martell this morning, despite the fact that Danny Tudhope’s mount is asked to concede between 10 and 28 pounds away (via potential jockey claims) to six rivals, the pick of which is surely Kodyanna.

7.25 Chester: Five Helmets was one of two runners for Tom Dascombe in the first Nursery of the season at Haydock last week, a race the trainer had won the previous year.  Tom’s three penultimate stage entries for that race suggested that he held those inmates in reasonable regard in this sector of the sport and there was every indication that this seventh (additional) furlong was going to suit Richard Kingscote mount.  Richard Hannon’s Brighton winner Jaayiz would probably be improving at a fair rate of knots if he should be good enough to give the selection four pounds and a beating.

 

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

 

Jul 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 13th

Thursday’s school report:

5 MMA WINNERS at 9/2 (returned at the same price), 4/1 (13/5), 7/2 (5/2), 3/1 (5/2) & 11/4 (6/4).

We continue to knock on the door all too often with another five selections finishing second yesterday, including those at 7/1 (13/8), 7/1 (6/1) & 5/2 (11/10).

Others finished out of the frame despite backed from 22/1 to 12/1, 13/2 (3/1), 9/2 (2/1) & 11/4 (11/10).

 

APPROXIMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 6 ADDITIONS

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHEPSTOW:

6.10: Living Leader – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetBright)

7.15: Edged Out – 9/2 (Generally available)

7.45: Trotter – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.15: Rastacap – 3/1 (Generally available)

8.50: Petrify – 11/2 (BetBright)

Additional Chepstow entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

CHESTER:

5.50: My Amigo – 7/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Piedita – 9/2 (Betfair/PP)

9.00: Socialites Red – 14/1 (Generally available)

Additional Chester entry at 8.00:

7.55: Zoffalee – 11/1 (Betway/BetVictor)

 

ASCOT:

2.50: Semoum – Evens (365/BetVictor)

3.25: Alqamar – 9/2 (PP/Unibet/Boyle/BetVictor)

4.00: Made Up – 5/2 (365)

4.35: Miracle Of Medinah – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.10: Simpson – 17/2 (Unibet)

5.40: Bronze Angel – 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Ascot entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

YORK:

2.05: Diamond Oasis – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.40: Mukhayyam – 5/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Could It Be Love – 5/2 (Betfair/PP)

Additional York entries at 8.00:

3.50: Pioneering – 12/1 (Generally available)

4.25: Big Ace – 8/1 (Generally available)

5.00: Angel Force – 18/1 (Ladbrokes/Unibet)

 

NEWMARKET:

2.25: Angels Hideaway – 7/1 (Unibet)

3.00: Wissahickon – 11/4 (Betfair/PP)

5.20: Corrosive – 3/1 (Generally available)

Additional Newmarket entries at 8.00:

4.10: Art Du Val – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.45: Hamada – 3/1 (Generally available)

 

FFOS LAS (NH):

8.05: Court Duty – 11/4 (Generally available)

8.40: Dgentle Reflexion – 5/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Uni/BetVictor)

Additional Ffos Las entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN THE TROPHY OUTRIGHT – UPDATED ODDS – FRIDAY MORNING:

40/85—France (Bet Stars)

23/12—Croatia (188)

 

REMAINING MATCHES – FRIDAY MORNING ODDS:

THE FINAL – SUNDAY – 4.00pm

19/20—France (Black Type)

47/20—Draw (Marathon)

41/10—Croatia (Hills/Betfair)

 

3RD/4TH PLACE GAME – SATURDAY – 3.00pm

23/20—Belgium (Hills/Black Type)

141/50—Draw (Marathon)

12/5—England (Marathon)

Jul 12

Daily analysis – Thursday 12th

NEWMARKET – JULY 12

 

Historical facts about this meeting (seven year study):

51 races – 11 winning favourites – 48/51 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last seven years:

6 winners—John Gosden (14/1, 4/1, 3/1, 9/4, 2/1** & 11/10*) – 8 runners today: First Eleven (1.50), Elgends Of War (2.25), Jawwaal (3.00), Muntahaa & Raa Aroll (3.35), Handmaiden (4.10) & Purser & Emeraaty (4.45)

 

Out of interest, last year’s 3 day corresponding meeting stats were as follows:

22 races – 5 winning favourite (of which Aidan O’Brien saddled three) – All 22 winenrs scored at a top price of 12/1.  Aside from Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby (9/2, 7/2, 3/1 & 11/10*) ruled the roost with four winners.

 

Newmarket (July course) stats this season:

43 races – 14 winning favourites – 42/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer this season:

5/24—Richard Hannon (7/1, 13/2. 5/2*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 3 runners today: Buridan & Embour (3.00) & Tangled (4.45)

 

1.50: John Gosden has saddled four of the last six winners when represented, with John having declared First Eleven on this occasion. Thirteen renewals had slipped past since John scored with his 1997 winner Three Cheers before the recent gold medallists got John’s name back on the board in no uncertain terms. Loxley is a serious threat on this occasion however.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 years. 14 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. 15 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last 16 years.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Global Giant (good to firm)

1/1—Loxley (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

The front pair in the market look set to dominate when betting on the track opens today, with Loxley just edging the proceedings at 7/2 in terms of popularity/value for money early doors…

 

2.25: LEGENDS OF WAR is taken to beat Advertise especially at the overnight price of 5/2 which quickly disappeared by those of us who are stricken by insomnia.  Sometimes it pays to be afflicted with ailments!

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have secured win and place positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include four gold medallists.

Win selection: Legends Of War

Overnight market activity:

It’s a similar scenario in the second race with Legends Of War probably proving the more popular at 9/4 when the offices open later this morning

 

3.00: Eleven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those years being returned at 40/1-25/1-12/1-12/1–11/1-17/2-8/1-7/1-7/1-7/1-13/2, an average price of 19/2 during the last eleven years.  Thirteen winners during the last fifteen years have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 which eliminates the top pair in the handicap from my viewpoint.  Trainer ‘mentaility’ fascinates yours truly, which is one of the biggest understatements I have written in these daily columns in the last eighteen years.  Richard Hannon is the leading trainer at the venue this season and his three runners today are all (good to firm) course winners, among just nine on the entire card.  Richards saddled two of them against each other here which is a little frustrating, though both BURIDAN and EMBOUR are offered each way chances at the very least.  Both horses are drawn high which has been an advantage in this race of late.  Tribal Quest and Stormbringer will rightly have their fair share of supporters in an intriguing three-year-old contest.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst 10 of the 23 market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 21 years.  

Win selection: Buridan

Each way alternative option: Embour

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

1/1—Embour (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There is plenty of money for several runners in this field though Jawwall looks as solid as any around the 7/1 mark

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals of this twelve furlong Group 2 event with just three of the seven entries made up from the relevant vintage this time around.  Mirage Dancer is taken to get the better of Laraaib at the business end of proceedings. For the record, Sir Michael Stoute (Mirage Dancer) has saddled fifteen winners since the end of May via a 25% strike rate, these months offering some of the hardest race to win during the entire year.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have scored in the last 20 years though eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/1 during the last decade.

 

4.10: This is probably as difficult for punters as any race which will be contested over the three days of the July meeting. At least three experienced horse could prove good enough, accompanied by two likely looking newcomers in Wingreen and Yourtimeisnow.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last sixteen years.

 

4.45: Tangled is Richard Hannon’s third and final runner on the card and for reasons stated earlier in this analysis, Tom Marquand’s mount is given a sporting each way chance at 66/1 today!  WHITE MOCHA is another outsider that could outrun his odds in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged via five renewals thus far during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 7/1.

Each way selection: White Mocha

Outrageous option: Tangled

Record of the two course winners in the sixth race:

1/1—Naval Intelligence (good to firm)

1/2—Tangled (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Bookmakers are united right across the board relating to their 9/2 quote about Symbolization, not seemingly wanting to offer punters a 5/1 ‘bet to nothing’ option in the contest

 

5.20: The each way chance for last year’s winner SHAMSHON is there for all to see, albeit the seven-year-old appears to have lost his way of late.  That said, Shamshon runs off a seven pound lower mark than was the case twelve months ago, notwithstanding the fact that Stuart Williams has booked a seven pound claimer for good measure.  Effectively therefore, last year’s winner is carrying a stone less which suggests that he might only need to be 95% back to his best to score!  I would certainly advise an each way saver at 16/1 this morning.  Form students might prefer the chance of Leo Minot the other end of the market as they peruse today’s opening card of what is always a fascinating meeting.

Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last decade have scored at 12/1 or less, statistics which include three (9/2, 9/2 & 9/4) winning favourites.

Each way selection: Shamshon

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/1—Leo Minor (good to firm)

1/3—Compas Scoobie (good to soft)

1/2—Shasshon (good)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

The next Nursery races are scheduled for Friday: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)