Jul 12

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 12th

Wednesday’s school report:

4 MMA WINNERS at 5/1 (returned at 5/4), 4/1 (6/4), 11/4 (same price) & 13/8 (15/8) + three seconds (as is common place of late) at 12/1, 11/2 & 4/1

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:

4.00: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 4 ADDITIONS

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

CARLISLE:

2.40: Why We Dream – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.15: Koduro – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.50: Ghayadh – 4/1 (Generally available)

4.25: Pea Shooter – 11/1 (365/Sunbets/Unibet/BetVictor)

5.00: Nuns Walk – 7/1 (Generally available)

5.35: Roys Dream – 7/2 (365)

Additional Carlisle entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

DONCASTER:

2.15: Tyrell – 11/4 (Betfair/PP)

4.35: Iconioc Knight – 5/2 (Skybet)

5.10: Past Master – 3/1 (Generally available)

5.45: Arcadian Angel – 13/2 (Generally available)

Additional Doncaster entry at 8.30:

4.00: Affina – 5/2 (Generally available)

 

EPSOM:

6.35: Berkshire Spirit – 9/2 (Generally available)

7.10: Triple First – 22/1 (Generally available)

8.10: Seprani – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Epsom entries at 8.30:

7.40: Corazon Espinado – 9/4 (Hills)

8.45: Careyanne – 11/4 (Hills)

 

NEWBURY:

8.00: Monoxide – 7/2 (Ladbrokes/365)

9.05: Nicklaus – 3/1 (Ladbrokes/Unibet/BetBright)

Additional Newbury entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

NEWMARKET:

1.50: Loxley – 7/2 (Unibet/Boyle)

2.25: Legends Of War – 9/4 (Betfair/PP)

3.00: Jawwaal – 7/1 (Generally available)

4.45: Symbolization – 9/2 (Generally available)

Additional Newmarket entry at 8.30:

5.20: Shamshon – 14/1 (Generally available)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE (BEST PRICES- THURSDAY MORNING):

TO WIN THE TROPHY OUTRIGHT:

10/21—France (Unibet/888)

23/12—Croatia (188)

 

REMAINING MATCHES:

THE FINAL – SUNDAY – 4.00pm

Evens—France (Black Type)

58/25—Draw (Marathon)

4/1—Croatia (Hills/Betfair)

 

3RD/4TH PLACE GAME – SATURDAY – 3.00pm

11/8—Belgium (Betway)

14/5—Draw (Black Type)

9/4—England (365/Sportingbet)

Jul 11

Daily analysis – Tuesday 11th

CATTERICK – JULY 11

 

  • All the Nursery stats/facts/comment can be found below Catterick’s race by race analysis – best of luck today guys…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 4/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 2/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

Totals:

37 races – 16 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

Four trainers saddled a trio of winners during the period, the pick of which could arguably be Mark Johnston (9/1, 5/1 & 11/10*) who secured a 20/1 double on last year’s corresponding card.  Mark saddles two runners this afternoon, namely Prairie Spy (3.10) & Kittileo (4.10)

Leading represented trainers this season:

4/19—Richard Fahey (10/1, 6/1, 9/4* & 2/1*) – 1 runner: Essenza (3.10)

2/5—Ann Duffield (50/1 & 5/2) – 1 runner: Symphonic (4.45)

 

2.10: Associate Rock is beginning to attract bits and pieces of money in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges and it’s worth noting that Amy Murphy has moved back up on trip with her Society Rock Raider.

Favourite factor: Although two of the seven races to date have been won by market leaders, yours year have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: Associate Rock

 

2.40: Horatio Star’s debut effort went into the notebook a few weeks back and it is interesting to see Brian Meehan saddling his Mount Nelson gelding at this venue which has not been kind to his team (3/37) down the years.  Conversely, Owen Burrows has won with one of just two runners at the track and Owen’s declaration of Mutanaqel warrants respect accordingly.

Favourite factor: Four of the last five favourites have won whilst the other gold medallist during the period was sent off at just 11/8.

 

3.10: Please refer to my Nursery notes below.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to note that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot & each way perspectives.

 

3.40: Unbeaten course winner (albeit via just the one assignment at Catterick) Iron Sky is the call in another trappy race on the card, whilst stable companion Kirbec has a chance of finishing in the frame at a double figure price.  Montague must surely go close but at 2/1, though I would rather let the Poets Voice colt win than become a player at those odds.  Tim Easterby (May Symphonic) throws the proverbial spanner in the works given that the stable has won this event with its last two runners via the relevant trio of renewals.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last six contests whilst five gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/2 during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Iron Sky (good)

 

4.10: Sometimes you have to look behind the scenes and discover stats which are not always staring you in the face.  Yes I have revealed (below) That Italian Riviera has won three of his five race here at Catterick, though further investigation tells us that Ken Slack’s consistent performer has also snared gold on two of his three races under the NH code at this venue!  What adds further confidence is that trainers have missed an ‘edge’ here, as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.

Favourite factor: Another good race for punters in recent years as four of the last six renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight winners scored at 5/1 or less.

Win selection: Italian Riviera

Record of the course winner in the field:

3/5—Italian Riviera (2 x good & soft)

 

4.45: It defies belief at times some of the reports you read in the trade press (at just £2.90 a copy!) as the comment for this race is that trainer Geoff Harker has his team in good form.  I appreciate this this type of comment is open to personal interpretation but win, lose or draw today, I don’t consider 3/37 stats under this code since February as being particularly attractive.  Upwards and onward however, by suggesting that Rebel State and Size Matters should give Geoff’s Extrasolar something to think about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick.

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event on the card:

1/11—Deben (good)

1/4—Tom’s Anna (good to firm)

 

5.15: Ladbrokes were (unusually) out on a limb by offering 9/2 about Perfect Thought in the dead of night and though the price has been trimmed to 4/1 in the interim period, the probability factor of 20% still undermines his chance from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The finale is a new race on the Catterick card

Win selection: Perfect Thought

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 3.10 Catterick & 4.00 Lingfield

3.20: Catterick:

Mark Johnston won a Nursey event with a top weight yesterday and Prairie Spy should similarly be up to repeating the feat on behalf of the stable in this grade/company.  The fact that Mark secured the first victory in the race twelve months ago adds confidence. That all said, Essenza is Richard Fahey’s only runner on the card which is unusual to say the least whereby little can be taken for granted, especially in an event restricted to fillies.

4.00: Lingfield:

Mark Johnston is also represented in the other two-year-old handicap today, albeit from the bottom of the handicap this time around.  Al Manhala is the relevant entry, thought the stable might have to settle for the silver medal here with FREE LOVE having been declared. Tom Clover saddles his first Nursery runner of the season and Tom’s Equiano filly is the horse to beat from my viewpoint.

 

Nursery stats this season (3 races – 25 runners):

Favourite stats (3):

1 win & 2 unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

9 relevant runners: 2 winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

14 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—Richard Fahey

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018 – 24 horses – 25 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 11

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 11th

Tuesday’s school report:

Mal’s haul on Tuesday: 5 WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 2/1), 11/2 (7/2), 5/1 (11/4), 7/2 (11/4) & 11/4 (7/4) good enough – but add the 7 second placed horses and you can understand why I was still frustrated with the day’s work!

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:                                                

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE

NO MMA UPDATE TODAY UNFORTUNATELY – 7.40 DOCTOR/HOSPITAL APPOINTMENT….

Best of luck today guys – hoping to be back with you tomorrow

 

Tuesday’s school report:

Mal’s haul on Tuesday: 5 WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 2/1), 11/2 (7/2), 5/1 (11/4), 7/2 (11/4) & 11/4 (7/4) good enough – but add the 7 second placed horses and you can understand why I was still frustrated with the day’s work!

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:                                                

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE   – DONE   

NO MMA UPDATE TODAY UNFORTUNATELY – 7.40 DOCTOR/HOSPITAL APPOINTMENT….

 

WEDNESDAY:

‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

BATH:

6.40: Dandilion – 11/2 (Sunbets/BetBright)

7.10: Kilagia – 13/8 (Generally available)

8.10: Secretfact – 5/1 (BetBright)

 

CATTERICK:

2.40: Horatio Star – 4/1 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

5.15: Perfect Thought – 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

 

LINGFIELD:

2.30: Full Suit – 4/1 (Hills/PP)

3.30: Buthelezi – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.00: North Korea – 11/4 (365)

4.35: Prince Of Rome – 3/1 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

 

YARMOUTH:

3.50: Valcartier – 10/3 (365/Coral/Betway/BetVictor)

4.20: Gratified – 9/2 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

5.25: Chetan – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

 

KEMPTON (Some each way plays to moderate stakes to consider):

6.25: Ross Raith Rover – 16/1 (365/BetVictor)

6.55: Landue – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.25: Across The Sea – 6/1 (Generally available)

7.55: Ardamar – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

8.25: Long John Silver – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8.55: Little Palaver – 11/2 (BB)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

4/6—France (Generally available)

45/17—England (10Bet)

6/1—Croatia (BetVictor)

 

TONIGHT’S MATCH:

ENGLAND V CROATIA – 7pm kick off

11/8—England (Betfair/Betway)

11/5—Draw (Sunbets/Betfair/Betfred)

137/50—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

11/5—England (Betfair)

20/21—Draw (Betfred)

18/5—Croatia (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

8/13—England (Generally available)

17/12—Croatia (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

56/19–England/England (Unibet/888)

17/1–England/Draw (188/BetVictor)

51/1–England/Croatia (888)

19/4–Draw/England (Unibet/888)

17/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888/BetVictor)

73/10–Draw/Croatia (Marathon)

35/1–Croatia/England (888)

16/1–Croatia/Draw (Generally available)

111/20– Croatia/Croatia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

15/13 (YES) – (10Bet)

31/40 (NO) – (BetVictor/)

Unders/overs:

4/7–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

41/25–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/5–under 3.5 goals (Unibet/888/Bet Stars)

17/4–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor)

Correct scores:

11/2—1-1 draw (Bet Stars/Sportingbet)

6/1—1-0 England (Bet Stars)

13/2—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888/188)

8/1—1-0 Croatia (Generally available)

10/1—2-0 England (365/Bet Stars)

10/1—2-1 England (365/Bet Stars)

14/1—2-1 Croatia (365)

18/1—2-0 Croatia (365/Bet Stars)

20/1—2-2 draw (365/Bet Stars)

25/1—3-0 England (Bet Stars)

25/1—3-1 England (Bet Stars)

 

 

 

Jul 10

Daily Analysis – Tuesday 10th

 

PONTEFRACT – JULY 10

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Richard Fahey (6/1, 5/1 & 9/4*) – 2 runners: Danehill Desert (2.30) & Private Matter (3.30)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

5/21—Richard Fahey (16/1, 7/2, 7/2**, 3/1* & 11/4) – 2 runners (as above)

3/12—Kevin Ryan (6/1, 5/1 & 10/3) – 1 runner: Ahian Bil Emarti (2.00)

 

2.00: Please see the Nursery details below for nominating Red Hut Red over Octave this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via the last seven renewals

Win selection: Red Hut Red

Overnight market activity: Red Hut Red was still available at 10/3 with Hills at the time of writing – shorter elsewhere….

 

2.30: Danehill Desert and Palmer are my pair against the field, given the trainer Kevin Ryan swerves the race having secured four victories from as many runners during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won every other year during the last decade though the favourite is set to miss out this time around if you believe in trends of that extreme!   

Overnight market activity:

Nothing to report

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and Shenanigans and Paco’s Angel should extend the run between them on behalf of the vintage.  That said, it’s worth noting the market activity mentioned below for the only older horse in the field.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won three of the last seven contests.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Isabella (good)

1/1—Pattie (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking bundles of liquidity but Promising Run was the horse for money overnight

 

3.30: David O’Meara has a few chances on the card with Watchable arguably be the best of them today, especially with six of the last seven winners having carried weights of 9-5 or more.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 7/2 favourite was the only market leader to oblige since 2008.

Each way selection: Watchable

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

3/7—Highly Sprung (3 x good to firm)

2/14—Mr Orange (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There has been some money for Watchable over the hour or two…

 

4.00: Along with fellow Godolphin raider Promising Run earlier on the card, Recordman boasts claims here, though Roger Charlton’s Frankel colt Herculean should really be winning this contest if he is to fulfil expectations.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

Overnight market activity:

None of note

 

4.30: A couple of each way types create some interest in the contest, listing Archie Perkins ahead of Mearing from a value for money perspective.

Favourite factor: Market leaders secured a hat trick between 2013/15 but the last two jollies have been turned over in races won by 6/1 and 15/8 chances.

Each way selection: Archie Perkins

Overnight market activity:

Archie Perkins should never have been a 14/1 chance in my book – as short as 9/1 with Skybet in the last few minutes having been 14/1 with them as well as 365/Betway/BetVictor earlier this morning.  14/1 is still available if you’re quick!

 

5.00: Seven pound claimer Oliver Stammers have ridden five winners via a 16% strike rate which gives Firfinleu an edge in a race I might otherwise have swerved.  The overnight money for Mark Johnston’s raider adds some confidence with the trainer being well known for taking advantage of a decent claim for a rider who has already bagged a handful of winners.

Favourite factor: The inaugural market leader scored at 7/4 but subsequent gold medallists have posted victories at 12/1 & 8/1.

Win selection: Forfinleu

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/3—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

2/4—Quoteline Direct (2 x good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Firlinfeu was the only horse for money during the dead of night, albeit to moderate liquidity

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

 

 

 

Jul 10

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 10th

Monday’s school report:

3 MMA winners yesterday at 6/1 (returned at 17/2), 9/2 (11/4) & 9/2 (7/2)

 

APPROXIMATE MONDAY TIMELINE:                                                      

5.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.45: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE with 6 additions

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BRIGHTON:

5.40: Scenery 5/1 (Generally available)

6.40: Kachumba11/2 (Hills/Betfair/BetBright)

7.10: Arctic Sea8/1 (BetBright)

Additional Brighton entry at 8.30:

8.10: Wear It Well – 8/1 (365)

 

PONTEFRACT:

2.00: Red Hut Red – 10/3 (Hills)

3.00: Promising Run – 3/1 (Unibet)

5.00: Firlinfeu – 3/1 (Unibet)

Additional Pontefract entries at 8.30:

2.30: Danehill Dseert – 4/1 (Generally available)

3.30: Watchable – 6/1 (365)

4.30: Archie Perkins – 14/1 365/Betway/BetVictor)

 

UTTOXETER:

9.00: Zebi Boy – 7/2 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Uttoxeter entries at 8.30:

7.30: Icefall – 13/2 (Betfair)

8.00: Desert Retreat – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

1.45: Invisible Ridge – 9/1 (Betfair)

2.15: Theatre Of War – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.45: Pablow – 22/1 (365)

3.45: Global Spirit – 17/2 (Sunbets)

4.15: Lunar Corona – 11/2 (365/BetVictor)

5.15: Tobruk – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

2/1—France (Generally available)

11/4—Emgland (Boyle/Black Type/Bet Stars/10Bet)

14/5—Belgium (Bet Stars, Sportingbet & 188))

5/1—Croatia (Skybet/10Bet)

 

TONIGHT’S MATCH:

FRANCE V BELGIUM – 7pm kick off

157/10—France (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (BetVictor)

11/5—Belgium (188)

Half time betting:

9/4—France (188)

11/10—Draw (365/Skybet)

29/10—Belgium (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

4/9—France (Generally available)

47/23—Belgium (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

16/5–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Boyle/Unibet/188)

16/1–France/Draw (Skybet/188)

35/1–France/Belgium (Unibet/888/188)

21/4–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

17/4–Draw/Draw (BetVictor)

13/2–Draw/Belgium (Unibet/888)

33/1–Belgium/France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Belgium/Draw (Skybet/Hills/BetVictor)

9/2– Belgium/Belgium (Boyle)

Both teams to score:

17/20 (YES) – (Bet Stars)

11/10 (NO) – (BetVictor/Hills)

Unders/overs:

83/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

57/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/3–under 3.5 goals (Unibet/888)

14/5–3.5 goals or more (Bet Stars)

Correct scores:

6/1—1-1 draw (Bet Stars/)

15/2—1-0 France (Generally available)

9/1—0-0 draw (Bet Stars/888)

9/1—1-0 Belgium (Bet Stars/365/Unibet/888)

10/1—2-1 France (Bet Stars)

11/1—2-1 Belgium (365/Bet Stars)

12/1—2-0 France (Generally available)

15/1—2-2 draw (Bet Stars)

33/2—2-0 Belgium (188)

 

Jul 09

Daily analysis – Tuesday 9th

WINDSOR – JULY 9

 

  • Latest Nursery updated stats and early thoughts on tomorrow’s relevant Pontefract event can be found after today’s race by race Windsor analysis.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2016: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Clive Cox (7/1, 15/8* & 13/8*) – 1 runner: King’s Slipper (8.10)

 

Leading represented trainer this season:

7/45—Richard Hannon (8/1 (three times), 5/1*, 3/1, 2/1* & 4/9*) – 5 runners: Swiper (6.10), Sotomayor (6.40), Motown Mick (7.10), Fanfair (7.40) & Anchises (8.10)

 

5.40: Nine of the ten winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date, whilst only three four-year-olds have been declared despite vintage representatives have secured seven victories to date. Letmestopyouthere and Impart should run well on behalf of the vintage, whilst Aguerooo completes my trio against the remaining ten contenders.

Favourite factor: Eight years have slipped by the since the last favourite obliged though that said, every subsequent winner has scored at 10/1 or less.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/3—Picket Line (good)

1/7—Pretty Bubbles (good to firm)

2/14—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

1/6—Pharoh Jake (soft)

Overnight market activity:

The 11/2 quote for Aguerooo by four leading firms at the time of writing is not expected to last long according to the gospel of yours truly; win, lose or draw.

 

6.10: Brian Meehan’s Zebedee colt BOA NOVA contested the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago and though asked to concede seven pounds to his rivals here, 11/2 (in a place) looks a tad too big from my viewpoint, especially as trainer Brian Meehan does not go to war at the big meeting very often aside from Pattern and handicap events for older horses.  That all said, the chances of Swiper and Glorious Lover are also respected.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market lost out by the minimum margin.

Win selection: Boa Nova (to moderate stakes)

Overnight market activity:

Although the swing could move both ways, it could be worth taking a chance on the 11/2 offered by Betfair this morning relating to the chance of Boa Nova.

 

6.40: The exchanges are suggesting that there will not be a great deal between Sotomayor and Star Of Zaam, either in the market and/or in the subsequent contest. A quick check of the favourite factor stats below will enlighten your knowledge in terms of which way you play the race.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a fine record here having gained four gold medals and one of the silver variety via just the five contests to date.

 

7.10: Kevin Ryan has a few runners on the card and it could be that his Society Rock gelding How Bizarre will make Brigand pull out all the stops at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Each way selection (to a fashion): How Bizaare

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Motown Mick (good to soft)

 

7.40: Fanfair (each way) and El Borracho would be my chosen pair against the field, though not enough to prize my wallet out of hibernation.

Favourite factor: All manner of results have been recorded whereby any area of the market could provide the winner.

 

8.10: High in numbers but short on potential winners, this race will not take a great deal of winning, with King’s Slipper and Anchises expect to dominate close home.  For the record, the pair is listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

8.40: Bayshore Freeway could send punters home happy with Mark Johnston’s team in good from at present.  Mark only sent two three-year-old handicappers to Windsor last year (both beaten) which is something of a surprise but if my selection scores tonight, we can expect plenty of relevant inmates to make the long journey over the next four months or so.

Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has won via six renewals to date, five gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 7/2.

Win selection: Bayshore Freeway

Overnight market activity:

Bayshore Freeway is currently on offer at 7/2 (generally available) but I expect Mark Johnston’s raider to attract plenty of support, especially with Frannie Norton having made the journey…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery event – Tuesday – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

Placed – Finoah (78)           

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Camachess (69)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)     

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakaande (82)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

After Tuesday, there are two scheduled Nursery event on Wednesday at Catterick and Lingfield.

 

 

 

 

Jul 09

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 9th

Sunday’s school report….

6 MMA runners Sunday – 3 WINNERS at `14/1 – 15/2 – 7/2.

The three horses were backed into 6/1, 7/2 & 5/4 respectively – where else?

 

  • Apologies for the delay in the updates – still suffering…

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

AYR:

2.30: Vallarta – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.05: Faithful Promise – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.05: Whatsthemessage – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.40: Four Kingdoms – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/Coral)

5.45: Robben Rainbow – 5/2 (Betfair/Sunbets/PP)

Additional Ayr entries at 10.00:

2.00: Royal Big Night – 7/2 (Generally available)

3.35: Soldiers Minute – 5/1 (Generally available)

 

RIPON:

7.00: Edgar Allan Poe – 9/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Me Before You – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Ripon entry at 10.00:

7.30: The Lincoln Lawyer – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

 

WINDSOR:

5.40: Aguerooo – 11/2 (365/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

6.10: Boa Nova – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

8.40: Bayshore Freeway – 7/2 (Generally available)

Additional Windsor entry at 10.00:

7.40: Tripartite – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

WORCESTER:

4.25: Gang Warfare – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

5.00: Balkinstown – 8/1 (PP)

Additional Worcester entry at 10.00:

3.25: Play The Ace – 6/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.55: Tommy Hallinan – 7/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet)

5.30: Gday Aussie – 28/1 (365)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

2.40: Danish Duke – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

4.15: Be Bold – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 10.00:

3.45: Kroy – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.50: Dubai Flame – 7/1 (BetBright)

5.55: Silver Character – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

BEST PRICES ON MONDAY MORNING TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

2/1–France (Generally available)

11/4–England (365/Boyle/Bet Stars)

14/5–Belgium (188)

5/1–Croatia (Betfair/Unibet/Betfred) – Yesterday’s 6/1 (Black Type) which I highlighted has all gone….

 

Scheduled matches:

Tuesday (7.00 kick off):

17/11–France (10Bet) – 79/100 to reach the final (Marathon)

57/25–Draw (Marathon)

11/5–Belgium (Betfair/Unibet/Betfred) – 7/6 to reach the final (188)

 

Wednesday (7.00 kick off):

11/8–England (Betfair/Sunbets/Black Type/Bet Stars) – 4/6 to reach the final (Generally)

111/50–Draw (Marathon)

13/5–Croatia (Betfred/Betway) – 15/11 to reach the final (188)

Jul 08

Daily analysis – Sunday 8th

AYR – SUNDAY JULY 8  

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 5/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2016: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 1/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2014: 2/8 races were won by favourites – 8/9 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

Totals:

38 races (39 winners via one dead heat) – 12 winning favourites – All 39 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

6 winners—Keith Dalgleish (12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 5/1, 4/1 & 13/8*) – 10 runners today: Universal Gleam (1.30), Home Before Duck, Rock N Rolla & Corton Lad (2.00), Guillin Hills (2.30), Alabanza (3.05), War Department (3.35), Dark Profit (4.05) & Forever A Lady & Inglorious (4.40)

 

Leading represented trainer THIS SEASON:

6/43—Jim Goldie (16/1, 16/1, 11/2, 7/2, 7/2* & 3/1*) – 7 runners today: Testa Rossa (2.00), Rioja Day (3.05), Strong Steps (3.35), Nicholas T (4.05), Tommy G (4.40) & Brendan & Fintry Flyer (5.10)

 

Apologies Guys – this is all I have to offer this morning due to illness and a desperate need to have as quiet a day as possible – catch you tomorrow, hoping that you back lots of winners…

Jul 08

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 8th

Saturday school report:

If the previous day was Golden Friday, yesterday was ‘Sodding Saturday’ because 10 (yes ten) second placed horses frustrated the life out of us if being honest despite 3 MMA WINNERS at 11/1 (returned at 10/1), 11/2 (13/8) & 9/2 (7/4).  The placed horses included those at 10/1 (3/1) which as you can see my the way they were backed, was jaw dropping for all the wrong reasons!

Then there was my 20/1 call Harkbill in the ‘Eclipse’ which was backed down to 8/1 before giving it his best shot….

Upwards and onward but after another rough night on the sleep/illness front, there will be just one 6.45 offering of the MMA service today, whilst my World Cup (5.30 am) observations can be found  below.

Hope your luck much was better than mine yesterday – good fortune today guys……

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.45 am)

AYR:        

2.00: Rock N Rolla – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/CVroal/Hills/NBetBright/10Bet)

2.30: Cuillin Hills – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills)

4.40: Smugglers Creek – 15/2 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Marathon/10Bet/BetVictor)

5.10: Lexington Place – 7/2 (365)

MARKET RASEN:

4.20: Sedgemoor Express – 13/2 (Generally available)

4.55: Brave Eagle – 11/4 (Generally available)

5.25: Captain Felix – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

BEST PRICES THIS MORNING TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

2/1–France (Generally available)

11/4–England (365/Boyle/Bet Stars)

14/5–Belgium (188)

6/1–Croatia (Black Type) – easily the biggest price – as short as 7/2 with Hills

 

Scheduled matches:

Tuesday (7.00 kick off):

6/4–France (Generally available) – 4/5 to reach the final (365)

54/25–Draw (Marathon)

75/25–Belgium (Marathon) – 8/7 to reach the final (188)

Wednesday (7.00 kick off):

6/4–England (Black Type)7/10 to reach the final (Betfair)

23/10–Draw (Marathon)

64/25–Croatia (Marathon) – 17/13 to reach the final (188)

Jul 07

Daily analysis – Saturday 7th

SANDOWN – JULY 7

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2014: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2013: 6/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

5 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (8/1, 8/1, 13/2, 5/1 & 4/1) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4 winners—John Gosden (11/2, 5/2*, 13/8* & 4/9*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

5/10—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, 3/1*, 11/4, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4/15—John Gosden (7/2, 2/1*, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)

 

12.20: Different League is an interesting Aidan O’Brien entry though his handicappers from across the Irish Sea and nowhere as profitable as his ‘Pattern’ declarations. Koditime will pop up and bite us where it hurts most (in the wallet) though whether it will be today is anyone’s guess.  Similar comments apply to Sound And Silence.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites, whilst market leaders go into today’s gig on a four-timer.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

2/3—Haddaf (good & Goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Early money was for Different League but it remains to be seen if the support is sustained when more serious investors arrive in the playground

 

12.55: SOUTH SEAS is the type of horse that excites, frustrates and generally drives us mad as we try to anticipate if this will be his day.  At 16/1 (freely available at the time of writing), I’m hoping that I have called Andrew Balding’s talented individual right for once!  Potential party poopers in the field include Pouvoire Magique and Chiefofchiefs.  For the record, four-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last decade which points towards the chances of South Seas and Pouvoir Magique.

Favourite factor: Only one clear (2/1) favourite have won during the last ten years alongside a joint 7/2 market leader.  The only odds on chance in the race during the last twelve years finished out of the frame – tread carefully.

Each way selection: South Seas

Record of the seven course winners in the field:

1/1—South Seas (good to soft)

2/9—Secret Art (good & soft)

1/1—Via Serendipity (good to firm)

1/5—Manson (good to firm)

1/5—Master Craftsman (soft)

1/2—Chiefofchiefs (good)

2/2—Rum Runner (good to firm & Good to soft)

Overnight market activity:

Bits and pieces for a few each way types, principally Pouvoire Magique

 

1.30: The only trainer to have secured two wins in this race during the last decade is Sir Michael Stoute which adds confidence to my original selection DESERT DIAMIOND, albeit from an each way angle to moderate stakes.

Favourite factor: Seven years have slipped by since the last (4/6) market leader obliged.  That said, ‘only’ three gold medallists have been returned in double figures during the study period.

Each way selection: Desert Diamond

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

Overnight market activity:

Nothing major as such but there have been nibbles on 33/1 chance Darkness Falls during the last half an hour or so and there will be worse outsiders to consider this afternoon, that’s for sure

 

2.10: As far as we can tell going back so many hundreds of years relating to the sport, nearly every horse in trainer can be traced back to Eclipse, one way or another!  Upwards and onward by informing Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners of the ‘Eclipse’ during the last sixteen years with Saxon Warrior being his main hope this time around. It’s worth noting however the slightly negative recent figures of Aidan’s team in recent years which suggests that ROARING LION is the logical call today.  Some of the interest has disappeared overnight given the withdrawal of the Epsom Derby winner Masar, whilst Saxon Warrior has to find the thick end of three lengths with Roaring Lion if he is to turn that relevant Epsom form line around.  That said, this 10 furlong trip might prove ideal but then again, the same could be said of John Gosden’s projected favourite. Roaring Lion was oh so impressive over the trip in the ‘Dante’ at York and was going well with two furlongs to run in the Derby.  I have little (if any) doubt that the 2016 winner Hawkbill will attract plenty of each way money with Bet365 at 20/1, even though we have been robbed of the ‘dead eight’ scenario.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won the ‘Eclipse’ during the last decade.

Win selection: Roaring Lion

Each Way option: Hawkbill

Record of the two course winners in the Eclipse Stakes:

1/1—Hawsbill (soft)

1/1—Masar (good)

Overnight market activity:

There was a ton of money in the (realistic) exchange queue at around 9/4 for Saxon Warrior at the break of day and I doubt that the five firms which have the 2000 Guineas winners at that price will be quoting those odds for long.

 

2.45: There are too many ifs, buts and maybe’s in this contest for me to become financially involved, despite the fact that only six runners potentially face the starter.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored during the last decade alongside a pair of joint/co favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Cosmopolitan Queen (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Rogue remains an 11/1 chance with Bet365 this morning which surprises yours truly to a fashion, though I guess people will be more inclined to invest in stable companion Point Hope at around half of those odds.  I don’t believe there will be much daylight between the pair personally….

 

3.20: Nearly Caught has snared gold and bronze medals in the last two renewals of this event, though taking 2/1 about an eight-year-old at what might be the hottest part of the day fails to prize my wallet open, especially given the two mile distance…

Favourite factor: Three of the last six renewals have gone the way of the favourite, whilst all ten winners during the last decade have won at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the two course winner in the penultimate race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good)

1/3—Nearly Caught (goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note….

 

3.55: Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 to success and BAJAN GOLD is hopefully going to extend that positive trend this afternoon, whilst expecting England to be 1-0 at around this time this afternoon.  That’s where my expectancy ends!

Favourite factor: Three (joint) favourites have won during the last four years.

Win selection: BAJAN GOLD

Overnight market activity:

Jack Regan was (seemingly) the each way shout overnight though the price appears to have stabilised at around 6/1 now

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery service – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts on Friday were:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Thoughts this morning:

The two horses mentioned above are still uppermost in my thoughts, though there has been overnight support for Dave Dexter and I doubt the 11/2 with Ladbrokes will last long this morning.

 

Nursery stats this season (1 race – 12 runners in total):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2) – not represented today

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1) – not represented today

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weight carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weight carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

Jul 07

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 7th

Friday’s school report:

See Twitter page for full details but….11 MMA WINNERS YESTERDAY + 7 placed & 7 others which were backed off the boards before being beaten + two non runners….

The New Daily Service offered Sandown as the chosen meeting and winners & each way options flowed off the page + a successful 14/1 forecast via the only two horses mentioned in dispatches – the right way around as well for good measure!

 

APPROXIMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 5 ADDITIONS

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BEVERLEY:

3.10: Bosham – 10/1 (Generally available)

3.45: Kalagia – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/Unibet)

5.20: Terrier Spirit – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Beverley entry at 8.00:

2.00: One To Go – 5/1 (Betfair)

 

CARLISLE:

6.30: Eljaeff – 11/2 (Generally available)

8.30: Equitant – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/BetBright)

Additional Carlisle entries at 8.00:

6.00: Cliff – 7/1 (Generally available)

7.00: Cuppacocoa – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/BetBright)

 

HAYDOCK:

12.35: Austrian School – 7/1 (365/Betrfair/PP/BetBright)

1.10: Mrs Sippy – 13/2 (BetBright)

1.45: Golden Wolf – 15/2 (Skybet/Coral/Black Tyope)

2.55: Madrhino – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.30: Excellent Times (Generally available)

4.05: Epaulement – 5/1 (Hills)

Additional Haydock entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

LEICESTER:

4.10: Sir Commander – 5/2 (Generally available)

5.10: Makambe – 11/4 (Unibet)

Additional Leicester entry at 8.00:

1.50: Rux Ruxx – 9/2 (365/Marathon)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

5.40: Diamond Runner – 9/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/BetBright)

6.40: Meshardal – 5/1 (Hills)

7.40: Afendem – 11/2 (BetBright)

8.10: Ventura Gold – 7/2 (BetBright)

8.40: Chingachgook – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Nottingham entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

SANDOWN:

12.20: Different League – 13/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

12.55: Pouvoire Magique – 9/1 (365/BetBright)

1.30: Desert Diamond – 9/1 (Betfair/BetBright)

2.10: Hawkbill – 20/1 (365)

2.45: Rogue – 11/1 (365)

3.55: Jack Regan – 13/2 (Generally available)

Additional Sandown entry at 8.00:

3.20: High Jinx – 6/1 (365/Hills/Unibet/BetBright)

 

CHELMSFORD:

2.40: Al Asef – 4/1 (Generally available)

3.50: Bullington – 10/3 (Skyber/Betfair/PP)

4.25: Global Wonder – 5/2 (Hills)

5.25: Mr Minerals – 8/1 (Skybet/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Chelmsford entry at 8.00:

DONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE – All relevant games and to win outright:

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

21/10—France (10Bet)

5/2—Belgium (Generally available)

9/2—England (Black Type)

6/1—Croatia (Betfair/PP/Black Type/10Bet)

20/1—Russia (Generally available)

22/1—Sweden (Generally available)

 

Best prices for Tuesday’s Semi-final:

8/5—France (Betway)

23/10—Draw (Skybet)

11/5—Belgium (Marathon/Betway/Unibet)

 

TODAY’S MATCHES:

ENGLAND V SWEDEN – 3pm kick off

10/11—England (Generally available)

23/10—Draw (365/Betfair/Black Type/188)

41/10—Sweden (Marathon)

Half time betting:

16/9—England (188)

19/20—Draw (Unibet/888)

5/1—Sweden (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

4/9—England (Generally available)

47/23—Sweden (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/5–England/England (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Boyle)

20/1–England/Draw (Skybet)

66/1–England/Sweden (Skybet)

19/5–Draw/England (Unibet/888)

18/5–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

39/4–Draw/Sweden (Marathon)

34/1–Sweden/England (Unibet/888)

20/1–Sweden/Draw (Skybet)

41/4– Sweden/Sweden (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Sunbets)

13/20 (NO) – (BetVictor/Bet Stars)

Unders/overs:

53/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

89/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Betway/Boyle)

23/5–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/188)

Correct scores:

19/4—1-0 England (Bet Stars/Sportingbet/BetVictor)

6/1—1-1 draw (365/Bet Stars/BetVictor)

13/2—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888)

15/2—2-0 England (Generally available)

9/1—2-1 England (Genrally available)

10/1—1-0 Sweden (Bet Stars)

18/1—2-1 Sweden (365/Skybet)

25/1—2-2 draw (188)

25/1—2-0 Sweden (Skybet/Bet Stars/188)

 

CROATIA V RUSSIA – 7pm kick off                    

6/5—Croatia (Generally available)

85/40—Draw (Marathon)

16/5—Russia (Marathon/Betfair)

Half time betting:

2/1—Croatia (Generally available)

10/11—Draw (Generally available)

41/10—Russia (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

7/12—Croatia (188)

8/5—Russia (Sportingbet)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/4–Croatia/Croatia (Ladbrokes/Coral)

18/1–Croatia/Draw (Skybet/188)

55/1–Croatia/Russia (Ladbrokes)

43/10–Draw/Croatia (Unibet/888)

10/3–Draw/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor))

39/5–Draw/Russia (Marathon)

35/1–Russia/Croatia (Unibet/188/888)

18/1–Russia/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

13/2–Russia/Russia (Marathon/BetVictor)

Both teams to score:

5/4 (YES) – (Betfair/Sunbets/Bet Stars)

8/11 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

13/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

181/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Betway)

19/4–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888/BetVictor)

Jul 06

Daily analysis – Friday 6th

SANDOWN – JULY 6

 

  • Early Nursery thoughts/stats regarding tomorrow’s two year old handicap event can be found at the foot of the column.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2016: 3/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 0/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 5/1 or less

2014: 2/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 7/1 or less

Totals:

31 races – 9 winning favourites – 30/31 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

 

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (9/2, 9/2, 9/4 & 10/11*) – 4 runners: Chapelli (1.50), Arctic Sound (2.25), Persian Moon (3.00) & King’s Proctor (4.05)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

3/8—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Mustahry (3.30) & Melting Dew (4.05)

3/13—John Gosden (7/2, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Alrajaa (2.25) & King Of Comedy (3.00)

2/4—Alan King (5/1 & 13/8*) – 2 runners: Green Etoile (2.25) & Hummdinger (3.00)

 

1.20: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst 25 favourites (including joint and co market leaders) have gone to post in the last 21 years. Just three favourites have reached the frame during the period, with no winners having been recorded.  Adhering to the weight trends, I suggest that Jashma and Justice Lady represent a little value at the time of writing, though not enough for yours truly to get involved financially.

Favourite factor: Look in the analysis to reveal a true horror story in recent times.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Rio Rinaldo (good to firm)

1/1—Justice Ladfy (good)

1/5—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Jashma (good)

 

1.50: This is a trappy heat and no mistake but one of the few signals to take into account is the fact that Well Done Fox is being kept on the safe side by layers at the time of writing. Five of the last six winners have contested Royal Ascot‘s Norfolk Stakes on their previous starts but that startling ‘edge’ has been ignored my trainers this time around.  Mick Channon’s pair Bungleinthejungle and Barbill make as much appeal as any accordingly and given the 9/1 quote by Ladbrokes this morning, BARBILL is the tentative each way call.

Favourite factor: Just five of the last 25 favourites in this event have scored.

Each way selection: Barbill

 

2.25: Arctic Sound (sets the standard from my viewpoint) is as good a place to start as any I guess with Mark Johnston leading the way at Esher this season, though whether Mark’s Haydock runner up can fend off two likely looking newcomers in Line Of Duty and ALRAJAA is another thing entirely.  John Gosden said of the latter named Dubawi raider earlier in the season; “Looks the sort to run from July onward; carries himself well and has a nice way about him”

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished well down the pack.

Win selection: Alrajaa

 

3.00: Persian Moon looks a solid 3/1 type from my viewpoint, though John Gosden was equally impressed with KING OF COMEDY earlier in the year as his runner (Alrajaa) in the first heat of the this contest.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same single stat applies.

Win selection: King Of Comedy

 

3.30: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MUSTASHRY standing out of the three vintage representatives on this occasion. That said, Spark Plug has secured gold and silver medals via the last two renewals of the race and warrants an each way saver at 6/1 with two leading firms early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include five of the last nine winners.  The last 14 gold medallists have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Win selection: Mustashry

Each way option: Spark Plug

Record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Euginio (good to firm)

1/4—Spark Plug (Good to firm)

1/3—Connect (good to soft)

 

4.05: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst securing eight victories during the last thirteen years. Vintage representative BLUE LAUREATE caught the eye at 6/1 this morning, with connections possibly having most to fear from King’s Proctor and Melting Dew.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven contests have been claimed by market leaders of one description or another.

Each way selection: Blue Laureate

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event:

1/2—Pivoine (good to firm)

1/4—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although freely available to back at 4/1 at the time of writing, it would come as no surprise to witness SAROOG attracting support with Ryan Moore booked to ride.  It came as something of a shock to the system to find no three-year-olds in the field, given their 5-4 lead over the four-year-olds in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Eight of the sixteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far, though just four market leaders have claimed the gold medal during the study period.  That said, 12 of the last 14 winners have scored at a top price of 6/1.

Win selection: Saroog

Record of the course winner in the seventh contest on the card:

2/4—Jacob Cats (2 x good to firm)

 

5.15: MICHELE STROGOFF might be a popular horse in the betting shops in and around the Esher area this morning I’ll wager as punters anticipate the chance of picking up any losses en route home after racing.  This is a ploy I used to adopt when going racing regularly as it is so easy to get swayed into backing another horse on course.  I used my strongest selection on a card as my banker knowing that if I did my cash at the track, I would be level on the day if the ‘nap’ obliged.  These days of course with ‘shops on site’ there is no reason to deviate from the route to the racecourse.  If I was going racing at Sandown today, my nap would be Michele Strogoff.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 joint favourite snared gold and bronze medals in a six runner race.

Win selection: Michele Strogoff

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/6—Biotic (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking ‘bundles of money’ in the dead of night for Michelle Strogoff though that said, I anticipate lots of support at around the 9/4 mark, quotes which are freely available at the time of writing – though for how long?

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery service – next race: Saturday – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Nursery stats this season (1 race):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weights carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

Jul 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 6th

Thursday’s school report:

Four placed MMA horses (again) on Thursday to frustrate your truly/followers alongside 3 WINNERS at 5/1 (returned at 9/2), 10/3 (11/8) & 13/8 (10/11).  Three of four placed horses were offered at 5/1 (9/4), 5/1 (11/2) & 9/2 (7/2) whilst the other drifted to 12/1….

The most positive feature of the day was the 4/1 victory of Scintillating who was highlighted in no uncertain terms by Mal via the New Daily Analysis service which offered Newbury as the principle meeting.

Mal quoted Ralph Beckett (commenting earlier in the year) as saying “She was an expensive purchase who will probably prove to be well bought”, fully expecting the newcomer to oblige which she did in scintillating style!

  • I continue to operate under the heading ‘light duties’ until I resume after a complete break soon (Sunday 15th to Friday 20th inclusive), expecting to be fully operational by Monday 23rd.  Sincere thanks offered to all the readers who have shown such wonderful support of late.

APPROXIMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

3.00: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

5.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 8 ADDITIONS

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

BEVERLEY:

6.00: Bling King (4/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.10: Areen Heart – 6/1 (BetBright0

Additional Beverley entry at 8.30:

8.20: Lever Du Soleil – 7/2 (Generally available)

 

DONCASTER:

1.30: Ocelot – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.10: Poets Society – 10/3 (Marathon)

3.45: Vera Drake – 7/1 (Betfair)

4.20: Natural History – 15/2 (Betfair)

Additional Doncaster entry at 8.30:

2.40: Betty F – 9/4 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

 

HAYDOCK:

6.15: Broken Force – 5/2 (365/BetVictor)

6.45: Iconic Choice – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

7.55: Vale Of Kent – 9/2 (Generally available)

8.30: My Wagyu – 9/2 (Betfair)

9.05: Palmer – 11/2 (Hills/BetVictor)

Additional Haydock entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

SANDOWN:

1.20: Open Wide – 4/1 (Generally available)

1.50: Well Done Fox – 7/2 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

2.25: Arctic Sound – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.00: Persian Moon – 3/1 (Generally available)

4.05: Blue Laureate – 6/1 (Gnenerally available)

4.40: Saroog – 4/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Michelle Strogoff – 9/4 (Generally available)

Additional Sandown entry at 8.30:

3.30: Spark Plug (Hills)

 

NEWTON ABBOT:

2.15: Mr Mafia – 2/1 (Generally available)

3.55: Barkis – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Fifty Shades – 11/4 (Marathon/Betfair/PP/Coral)

Additional Newton Abbot entries at 8.30:

3.20: The Kid – 11/1 (Generally available)

5.05: Across The Park – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

CHELMSFORD:

5.10: Jfoul – 9/2 (Betfair)

6.55: Greaves – 6/1 (PP)

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.30:

7.30: Global Conqueror – 5/2 (365/Unibet/Bet Victor)

8.05: La Figula – 2/1 (Generally available)

8.40: Aleef – 5/2 (Generally)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE – TODAY’S MATCHES:

FRANCE V URUGUAY – 3pm kick off

53/50—France (Marathon)

11/5—Draw (PP/BetVictor)

73/20—Uruguay (Marathon)

Half time betting:

15/8—France (Coral)

11/12—Draw (Unibet/888)

9/2—Uruguay (365/Marathon)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

49/100—France (Marathon)

23/12—Uruguay (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

12/5–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet/888)

18/1–France/Draw (Skybet/188)

60/1–France/Uruguay (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Unibet/888)

41/10–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

7/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

9/1–Draw/Uruguay (188)

34/1–Uruguay/France (Unibet/888)

19/1–Uruguay/Draw (BetVictor)

15/2– Uruguay/Uruguay (Marathon/BetVictor)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Sunbets)

17/25 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

13/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

91/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Unibet/888)

19/4–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor)

 

BRAZIL V BELGIUM – 7pm kick off                    

6/5—Brazil (Sunbets)

5/2—Draw (Betfred/BetVictor)

14/5—Belgium (Marathon)

Half time betting:

15/8—Brazil (Ladbrokes/Coral)

23/20—Draw (Betway)

39/11—Belgium (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

7/12—Brazil (Unibet/888)

14/9—Belgium (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

13/5–Brazil/Brazil (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Brazil/Draw (Skybet)

45/1–Brazil/Belgium (188)

23/5–Draw/Brazil (Unibet/888)

9/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

77/10–Draw/Belgium (Unibet)

30/1–Belgium/Brazil (Unibet/188)

16/1–Belgium/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

113/20–Belgium/Belgium (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

5/6 (YES) – (Betfair/Sunbets/10Bet)

17/16 (NO) – (188)

Unders/overs:

22/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

107/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/3–under 3.5 goals (Skybet)

27/10–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor) – Arguably the bet of day, hopefully proving to be a great spectacle!

 

Jul 05

Daily Analysis – Thursday 5th

NEWBURY – JULY 5

 

Don’t forget to scroll down to by Nursery sector today for the first two-year-old handicap race of the season!

 

  • Please note a slightly reduced service today due to continued sickness – which is hopefully compensated by the new Nursery coverage…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2016: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 9/1 or less

2014: 0/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2013: 2/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

32 races – 6 winning favourites – 29/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

No clear trainer held sway though if we offer ‘Team Hannon’ collectively, they produced three winners (8/1, 11/8* * 11/10*) during the study period.  Richard (Junior) saddles eight at Newbury this evening: On A Roll (5.40), Posted & Cool Kitty (6.20), Ritchie Valens, London Rock & The Paddocks (6.45) & Blachfleur & Letsbe Avenue (8.55)

Leading represented trainers this season:       

5/15—William Haggas (Four winning favourites + 9/4) – 2 runners: Ascended (6.1%) & Nicklaus (8.55)

2/2—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 9/4) – 2 runners: Celestial Force (7.15) & Punkawallah (8.25)

 

RACE BY RACE ANALYSIS AT NEWBURY:

5.40: ICONIC KNIGHT has to be of interest from my viewpoint, with DREAMBOAT ANNIE offered up as saver material from an each way angle.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following three renewals thus far.

Win selection: Iconic Knight

Each way option: Dreamboat Annie

 

6.15: Ralph Beckett spoke of his Siyouni filly pre-season in this positive manner; “She was an expensive purchase who will probably prove to be well bought”.  Although this looks a warm event, SCINTILATING is the call accordingly albeit whatever she achieves today for ‘Highclere’ , there will be plenty more left to come, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Win selection: Scintilating

 

6.45: The Paddocks sets the standard via his debut success but that said, he was struggling to early on his latest Royal Ascot outing to back with any degree of confidence here.  Withdrawn from a race at Yarmouth last week, James Street might be the win and place route to take though the chances are that my pennies will remain safely tucked away.

Favourite factor: Last year’s favourite failed to follow in the successful hoofsteps of the inaugural favour that scored at 11/8 the previous year.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—The Paddocks (good to firm)

 

7.15: KING LUD has an each way (bet to nothing) look about him in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  This is his handicap debut and though there are only two places are up for grabs in this ‘short field’ event, I believe it’s worth adding the extra stake to (hopefully) ensure a return of some description.  That said, it’s worth noting that Tom Dascombe has won with both runners that he has sent down to Newbury so far this season whereby the chance of Celestial Force is respected alongside Sleeping Lion.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from an each way perspective, albeit to one quarter odds a place as opposed to one fifth in general terms.

Favourite factor: We have to search back eight years to find the only successful favourite in this event during the last decade.

Each way selection: King Lud

 

7.50: Ladbrokes and Coral were out on something of a limb at the time of writing by offering RESTLESS ROSE at 4/1 at the time of writing. Sylvestre De Sousa’s mount has only contested four assignments and trainer Stuart Williams can be congratulated for finding an ideal race for his filly at a Grade 1 venue.  Four-year-olds have won both races to date if you are looking for an additional reason to back Rose Berry.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Each way selection: Restless Rose

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Madame Bounty (good to firm)

 

8.25: It strikes me having got this far down the card that win and place calls are dominating the meeting and another horse to fit that bill tonight is OURMULLION at around the 5/1 mark.  The danger could prove to be Tom Dascombe’s norther raider Punkawallah, this being the second of Tom’s pair of travellers to Newbury this evening.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals.

Each way selection: Ourmullion

 

8.55: The current 7/4 quote about Courtside could prove to be something of catch as David Dimsock’s raider is the only horse for money in the finale at 8.00 this morning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for last year’s 4/1 market leader which failed to emulate the previous winner that struck for the majority of punters at odds of 4/5.

Win selection: COURTSIDE

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/2—Ragstone View (good to firm)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

NURSERY SECTOR:

3.00 Haydock:

High Horse – Clive Cox (Clive’s Nursery record last year: 3/16)

Finoah – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Luchador – Archie Watson (1/14)

Dancing Speed – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Solesmes – Mick Channon (10/59)

Triple One – Michael Bell (1/10)

Five Helmets – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Ventura Bay – Richard Fahey (14/156)

Leoube – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Bouncin Back – Nigel Tinkler (4/27)

Juniors Fantasy – Tim Easterby (3/62)

Tobeornottobee – Declan Carroll (1/8)

 

Viewpoint offered last weekend:

Tom Dascombe trained the successful 2/1 favourite in last year’s inaugural contest with Tom holding three entries this time around.

Five Helmets was fourth at 25/1 last time out having previously been beaten just four lengths in a Windsor contest.  Stable companion Finoah might do better of the pair with Richard Kingscote already showing preference though by the look of things, Richard is undecided on his options as he is also potentially booked aboard Dark Thunder which is my idea of the pick of the trio at the time of writing.

Tom’s latter named April foal was third in Chester’s ‘Lily Agnes’ on his second start and it’s worth noting that Tom still has two big race entries at the back end of the season for this individual who has been given a handicap mark of 77.

Tom saddled nine Nursery winners last year and his record with two-year-old handicappers at Haydock was 1/4.

Viewpoint now:

Tom Dascombe has offered the green light to his first named pair mentioned in dispatches though rather surprisingly, Stable jockey Richard Kingscote has been booked aboard Five Helmets which is rated ten pounds inferior to his stable companion.

That said, this is what handicaps are all about of course with the official assessor attempting to land a twelve runner dead heat in the contest!

Out of interest, Tom has side-lined Dark Thunder for another day, with the two big races towards the back end still on his agenda.

Other than Tom’s raiders, I expect High Horse and Solesmes to give investors a decent run for their collective monies.

 

Jul 05

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 5th

Wednesday’s school report:

It was a quiet day due to sickness yesterday when I offered up 10 MMA horses for your consideration.  Nearly every horse was well backed which regular readers will have come to understand as ‘normal procedure’ these days.

3 WINNERS were recorded at 4/1 (returned at 5/2**), 9/4 (2/1) & 4/5 (1/2) – alongside 1 placed horse at 4/1 (11/4) and one non runner.

Four of the five beaten horses were backed from 13/2 to 7/2, 11/2 to 11/4, 8/1 to 6/1 & 3/1 to 5/2.

Let’s call it an ‘okay day’….

There is bad news to report however as medics are suggesting (nay demanding) that I take a week off work completely, sooner rather than later.  I would not leave you totally ‘uncovered’ in terms of copy, suffice to say that for four of the seven days which I could not cover ‘in full’, I would offer you relevant stats and facts for meetings based on past results.

This will not be happening next week (as was my reply yesterday!) with Newmarket’s July Meeting being contested.

If we can book something up over the coming few days however, the plan is to carry out my last work next Saturday (14th) which would give reasonable amounts of coverage for the Sunday and Monday too (thanks to 48 hour declarations) leaving Tuesday – Friday being covered as best I can.

I apologise for this ‘inconvenience’ though the majority of you have paid for the service until the end of the year and the view from medics is that unless I take complete break for a week (they would prefer a month), subscribers could be seriously ‘short changed’ if you follow my drift….

 

APPROXIMATE THURSDAY TIMELINE:

7.00:  ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

Apologies – No further work offered today due to illness….

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

EPSOM:

6.00: Whinging Willie – 11/2 (365)

7.35: Dourada – 3/1 (Marathon)

HAYDOCK:

2.00: Fleeting Freedom – 9/2 (PP/BetVictor)

2.30: Jonah Jones – 13/8 (Ladbrokes)

3.00: Solesmes – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00: Kirkham – 12/1 (Generally)

NEWBURY:

5.40: Two horses to consider: Iconic Knight – 10/3 (Skybet/Betfair/BetVictor) & Dreamboat Annie – 11/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.15: King Lud – 5/1 (Generally available)

7.50: Restless Rose – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8.25: Ourmullion – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

YARMOUTH:

3.20: Lord Murphy – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.20:  Wild Acclaim – 7/2 (365/Marathon/Sunbets)

PERTH:

2.40: Shanaway – 9/1 (365/Marathon)

3.10: Netfy Bay – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/Cioral)

3.40: Mitcd 15/8 (Generally available)

4.10: Jovial Joey – 15/2 (Generally)

4.40: Loud And Clear – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/PP)

Jul 04

Daily Analysis – Wednesday 4th

BATH – JULY 4

 

  • My first Nursery stats are offered below the race by analysis – given that the opening two-year-old handicap of the season is contested tomorrow at Haydock.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 6/1 or less

2015: 0/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/2 or less

2013: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

34 races – 13 winning favourites – 33/34 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

Roger Charlton (3 winners) is not represent today and of the 7 trainers to have saddled a brace of gold medallists in recent years, Rod Millman (6/1 & 4/1) might be the man to follow – 1 runner: Red Miracle (8.10)

 

Stats for this season’s results:

60 aces – 16 winning favourites – 57/60 scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer this season:

4/10—Mark Johnston (11/4, 11/10*, 5/6* & 8/11*) – 1 runner: Vale Of Kent (7.40)

 

  • Please excuse the brief nature of the race by race analysis this morning (having completed the rest of the work earlier) due to ill health….

6.10: Silvestre De Sousa boasts ten points of level stake profit when teaming up with Chris Dwyer and the pair look set to go close with ARACANISTA.  Three time course winner (last season) JAGANORY can offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Record of the six course winners in the opening race:

2/5—Archimedes (good to firm & firm)

3/23—Jaganory (good to soft – soft – firm)

4/19—Molly Jones (4 x firm)

5/30—Dreams Of Glory (2 x firm – 2 x good to firm – good)

1/10—Spellmaker (firm)

2/18—Bauauq (good to firm & good to soft)

 

6.40: Bill Turner gave us a nice 10/1 winner yesterday and with the yard sending out a few gold medallists of late, LITTLE BOY BLUE might be the way forward here, albeit to moderate stakes.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/15—Showmethewayavrilo (soft)

 

7.10: The forecast of Queen Of Desire to beat Party Dancer will not make us rich, but it seems the only route to take if you must have a bet in the race.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/2—Queen Of Desire (firm)

 

7.40: Three of the four winners saddles by Mark Johnston at Bath this season have been returned as favourites and the trend should be extended by VALE OF KENT.

 

8.10: Sir Mark Prescott supporters have made plenty of money following progressive three-year-olds over a distance of ground from the stable and Altra Vita looks to be in the same mould.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Altra Vita

 

8.40: There are different reasons why any of the top three horses in the market could win this event whereby I will swerve the contest.  For the record, most people seem to be in agreement as there is precious little liquidity involved on the exchanges, particularly on the positive front.

Record of the two course winners in the sixth contest:

1/7—Attain (firm)

3/10—Avoacadeau (2 x firm & good)

 

9.10: Anything that Ed De Giles saddles at this track this season looks to be worth an each way saver at least, given that Ed’s ratio stands at 2/4 thus far, the winners having scored at 40/1 & 10/1.  Ed’s only representative on the card tonight is DELIRIUM.

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics

 

Positive Nursery stats from last year – with the 2016 ratios listed in brackets:

6/31—Richard Hughes (3/34)

5/15—Wiliam Haggas (4/30)

4/9—Charlie Appleby (4/11)

3/7—Simon Dow (2/14)

3/8—Sir Mark Prescott (2/15)

3/9—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/2)

2/5—Gay Kelleway (0/3)

 

Negative Nursery figures last year – 2016/2017 aggregates in brackets:

0/18—Brian Smart (2/41)

0/17—James Tate (0/20)

0/16—Mick Easterby (2/26)

0/13—Mark Usher (1/30)

0/12—Mick Aplleby (1/37)

0/12—Tony Carroll (0/20)

0/12—Gary Moore (1/20)

0/11—David Barron (2/29)

0/11—Stuart Williams (2/20)

0/10—Scott Dixon (0/17)

 

 

 

.

 

Jul 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 4th

  • PLEASE NOTE – I’m not sure if I will be adding anything more to the work that is already done below – certainly not a for a few hours or so due to ill health…

 

Monday’s school report:

It was a quiet day on the racing front yesterday as you will have noticed by my lack of MMA runners which was just as well because we suffered an agonising day, save for a 25/1 placed two-year-old in the relevant sector.

Yes we hit the bar again (three times via silver medallists) which were all well backed, though that was no compensation for the lack of winners.  15/2 (returned at 4/1), 9/2 (13/8) & 11/4 (2/1) second placed horses would have made for a good day had they gone one better.

There were winners for trainers (highlighted in one way or another) Dan Skelton, Mick Easterby and Mark Johnston – but that would be ‘papering over the cracks’ and that is a policy I do not adhere to.

Thankfully the new Daily Analysis service made up for this offering as you can read on my Twitter page though the school report reads: Must do better – the answer being, will do better!

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:

3.45: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

6.45: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BATH:

8.10: Altra Vita – 4/5 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Bath entry at 8.00:

 

MUSSELBURGH:

2.30: Samantha James – 8/1 (PP)

4.00: Chinese Spirit – 11/2 (Skybet)

Additional Musselburgh entry at 8.00:

 

THIRSK:

2.20: Prince Elzaam – 9/4 (Betfair/PP)

3.20: Suitcase n Taxi – 4/1 (Generally available)

Additional Thirsk entry at 8.00:

 

WORCESTER:

2.10: Spiritofchartwell – 15/2 (Hills)

2.40: Blagapar – 3/1 (PP)

Additional Worcester entry at 8.00:

 

KEMPTON:

5.50: Fivetwoeight – 4/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

6.50: Anbaa – 11/2 (Skybet/Sunbets/BetVictor)

7.50: West Coast Flyer – 13/2 (Skyebt/BetBright)

Additional Kempton entry at 8.00:

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE (OUTRIGHT & MATCH BETTING):

BEST PRICES TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

3/1—Brazil (Skybet & Bet Stars) – as short as 5/2

17/4—France (Unibet/10Bet/888) – as short as 7/2

9/2—England (Black Type & Bet Stars) – as short as 7/2

13/2—Belgium (Betfair/PP/Black Type) – as short as 5/1

13/2—Croatia (Generally available) – as short as 11/2

16/1—Uruguay (365/10Bet/Sportingbet) – as short as 14/1

20/1—Russia (Generally available) – as short as 16/1

25/1—Sweden (Generally available) – as short as 20/1

 

MATCH BETTING:

3.00 Friday:

21/20—France (365) – 1/2 to qualify for the semi-finals (Betfair)

57/25—Draw (Marathon)

70/19—Uruguay (Unibet) – 15/8 to qualify (188)

 

7.00 Friday:

7/6—Brazil (Unibet) – 29/50 to qualify (Marathon)

63/25—Draw (Marathon)

14/5—Belgium (Marathon/Betfred/Betway) – 13/8 to qualify (Hills)

 

3.00 Saturday:

19/20—England (Black Type) – 9/20 to qualify (Betway)

62/25—Draw (Marathon)

4/1—Sweden (365/Skybet/Betfair) – 23/10 to qualify (Sportingbet)

 

7.00 Saturday:

13/10—Croatia (Black Type) – 6/10 to qualify (Boyle/Bet Stars/Betway)

11/5—Draw (Betfred)

3/1—Russia (365/Marathon/Betfair) – 31/20 to qualify (PP)

Jul 03

Daily analysis – Tuesday 3rd

BRIGHTON – JULY 3

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2016: 0/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2014: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2013: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

36 races – 7 winning favourites – All 36 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—George Margarson (14/1, 12/1 & 6/1) – 1 runner: City Guest (4.30)

 

Brighton details this season:

64 races – 18 winning favourites – 61/64 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainers this season:

4/7—Richard Hughes (10/1, 2/1, 6/5* & Evens*) – 2 runners: Noteworthy (2.00) & Jack Taylor (5.00)

 

Trainer information brought forward from yesterday:

Michael Bell has saddled his last three runners to winning effect at 4/1, 11/4 & 15/8 – Michael saddles two at Chepstow today

Dan Skelton won with four of his six runners at Uttoxeter on Sunday (no runners yesterday) and goes in search of more swag at Stratford today with two inmates – though the trainer is 0/13 there this season – time to break his duck you might think…..

 

Trainer stats emerging from Monday:

Mark Johnston has five runners today (four at Hamilton – the other at Chepstow) having won with four of his last nine runners

Les Eyre is enjoying a fine season (recent stats of 2/3) – his next potential runners are at Haydock on Thursday

2/3 for Adam West of late – three potential runners on Thursday

Ralph Beckett saddles three at Chepstow – last two runners have won

William Haggas has two at the welsh venue – 3 of last 5 have won

2/3 runners for Mick Easterby won yesterday – 2 entries today

 

Race by race analysis at Brighton:

2.00: With Richard Hughes boasting 4/7 stats at the track this season, NOTEWORTHY appears to be the horse to beat in a race which should take little winning.  That said, four-year-olds have won six of the last ten renewals, with Born To Boogie being the lone vintage representative this time around. Bill Turner’s raider has a better chance here than on some recent assignments and just about warrants inclusion for those seeking a win and place option to the projected favourite.

Favourite factor: Only one of the last ten renewals was won by a (7/2**) favourite.

Win selection: Noteworthy

Each way option: Born To Boogie

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/2—Prancearoundthetoon (good to firm) – 0/8 elsewhere (includes five all weather assignments)

Overnight market activity:

Dribs and drabs of interest for Monarch’s Maid but not of persuasive liquidity

 

2.30: The ground is right for Buzz Lightyere and if I had to make an investment (which thankfully is not the case), I would probably opt for Philip Hide’s five-year-old raider.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card

Record of the two course winners in the field:

2/6—Stormbound (2 x good to firm) – only 1/11 elsewhere on turf

3/14—Buzz Lightyere (2 x good to firm & good) – all three wins to date (total stats of 3/26) have been gained at this venue

Overnight market activity:

Not activity as such, but Limerick Lord might be of interest to some at 11/2 with a few firms, given his 3/1 trade press quote overnight.  I doubt the 11/2 will be beaten later today.  There was some earlier money for Stormbound who is 9/2 almost across the board now…

 

3.00: There was a time not so long ago that when the blue colours of Godolphin came to town, everyone wanted to be on the relevant thoroughbreds and whether that remains locked in the memory banks of the lads and lasses at Ladbrokes and Betfair I’m not sure, because there 4/7 quotes about Fitzsimmons looks out of place with 4/5 nearly available on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Either way, I’m swerving the contest!

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Brighton programme to assess.

Overnight market activity:

Fitsimmons in on the drift but equally, there was nothing of note for any rival in the dead of night

 

3.30: Dual course and distance winner ROY ROCKET should only have to reproduce the form shown last week when securing a facile success to go very close in this grade/company.  Tempering enthusiasm however are the sobering favourite facts as listed below.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following seven renewals to date, with two of the last three gold medallists have scored at 14/1.

Win selection: Roy Rocket

Record of the three course winners in the fourth contest:

7/20—Roy Rocket (5 x good to firm + good & good to soft) – 0/30 at other venues!

2/17—Solveig’s Song (good to firm & good to soft) – 2/34 elsewhere

3/30—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm – good) – 3/34 at other tracks

Overnight market activity:

The only overnight money was for last week’s course winner Roy Rocket who looks solid enough at 6/4

 

4.00: Matchmaking was gelded during the winter and if last week’s winning effort was anything to go by, the operation has made a man of him, which is quite strange given the circumstances!

Favourite factor: Although last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished second, the jolly was seven lengths adrift of the winner who was returned as the second favourite at 3/1.

Win selection: Matchmaking should win but Sit Mark Prescott’s raider is too skinny to persuade this working man from parting with his cash.

Overnight market activity:

I doubt the current price of 3/1 about Berkshire Spirit will be beaten later in the day though equally, it might take a brave person to oppose the favourite…

 

4.30: With one of the runners already having been withdrawn, the worry is that this becomes a ‘win only’ contest which would scupper thoughts of CITY GUEST being a half decent each way proposition.  There are a couple of reasons for selecting George Margarson’s raider one of which, is that the trainer is the leading handler at this corresponding meeting in recent times.  George and Jane Elliot (still value for money via her five pound claim) teamed up to winning event in the race last year and the best of City Guest’s form which make him difficult to beat here I’ll wager.  That said, 310 days off the track is a sobering statistic…

Favourite factor: Six renewals have been contested since the last favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: City Guest

Record of the three course winners in the sixth event on the card:

2/2—Enzo (2 x good to soft) – 0/8 elsewhere

1/1—Starboy (good to soft) – 0/10 at other tracks

1/2—Kachumba (good to firm) – 2/4 on turf in total

Overnight market activity:

City Guest was the only horse for money overnight, albeit he was not “moving and shaking” to any great degree.

 

5.00: ‘Stat anoraks’ (of which I am one) will be hoping for a first/last race double for Richard Hughes which would take his ratio here at Brighton to 6/9 this season, though that potential scenario is ‘jumping the gun’ to say the least.  The declarations of Wotadoll and Jeapardy John are strong enough to oppose Jack Taylor even though I think he will win.  It’s time I went back to bed me thinks….

Favourite factor: Although only one market leader has won during the last decade, two of the last three winners were returned at 5/4 and 15/8 without being returned as favourites in their respective events.

Record of the two course winner in the finale:

1/2—Jack Taylor (good to firm) – beaten a short head on the other occasion

1/1—Wotadoll (good to soft) – 1/6 at other turf tracks

Overnight market activity:

What money there is has been for Wotadoll during the first few hours of daylight…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Jul 03

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 3rd

Monday’s school report:

4 MMA WINNERS at 6/1 (returned at 9/2), 9/2 (4/1), 3/1 (same price) & 7/4 (4/5) + 5 placed including those at 14/1 (4/1), 10/1 (5/1) & 7/1 (4/1)

Two of the four 2YO races went our way, whilst random information included John Bridger’s only named runner which was second (beaten a neck) at 16/1, a 15/2 treble for Mark Johnston and a 15/8 winner for David O’Meara.

My new service went well enough at Windsor (Monday’s chosen meeting).  I didn’t recommend bets in every race but two contests in which I offered each way chances to finished in the money at 12/1 & 5/1 (highlighted at 10/1 yesterday morning).

Other winners mentioned in dispatches won at 7/4 & 11/8 whilst the only two horses in the 7.00 contest produced a 28/1 forecast.  The three horses I spoke of in the opening event duly landed a 50/1 Trifecta – not a bad day’s work all in all….

 

APPROXIMATE TUESDAY TIMELINE:

4.00: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

5.00: TRAINERS – INTERESTING SNIPS – DONE

5.15: TWO-YEAR-OLD NOTES – DONE

5.45 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 2 ADDITIONS

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.45 am) – these prices will be updated at 9.00 with additions if/where relevant.

HAMILTON:

2.45: Knight In Armour – 9/2 (Marathon)

4.15: Northern Sky – 4/1 (Generally available)

4.45: Logi – 5/1 (Betfair)

5.15: Imperial Legend (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Hamilton entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

BRIGHTON:

2.30: Stormbound – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.00: Berkshire Spirit – 3/1 (365)

4.30: City Guest – 17/2 (Unibet)

Additional Brighton entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

CHEPSTOW:

8.15: Colenso – 15/2 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

9.15: King Calypso – 11/2 (Generally available)

Additional Chepstow entry at 8.30:

7.15: Showout – 9/2 (Betfair/PP)

 

STRATFORD:

8.30: Altiepix – 6/1 (Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Stratford entry at 8.30:

7.00: Born For War – 11/4 (Skybet/Hills/Black Type/188/BetVictor)

 

TRAINER IN FORMATION BROUGHT FORWARD FROM YESTERDAY:

Michael Bell has saddled his last three runners to winning effect at 4/1, 11/4 & 15/8 – Michael saddles two at Chepstow today

Dan Skelton won with four of his six runners at Uttoxeter on Sunday (no runners yesterday) and goes in search of more swag at Stratford today with two inmates – though the trainer is 0/13 there this season – time to break his duck you might think…..

TRAINER STATS EMERGING FROM MONDAY:

Mark Johnston has five runners today (four on at Hamilton – the other at Chepstow) having won with four of his last nine runners

Les Eyre is enjoying a fine season (recent stats of 2/3) – his next potential runners are at Haydock on Thursday

2/3 for Adam West of late – three potential runners on Thursday

Ralph Beckett saddles three at Chepstow – last two runners have won

William Haggas has two in at the welsh venue – 3 of his last 5 have won

2/3 runners for Mick Easterby won yesterday – 2 entries today

 

TWO YEAR OLD NOTES:

2.15 Hamilton: 

It’s not easy to lead from trap to line at Carlisle with its uphill finish, especially for a juvenile who was only having his second outing.  That’s what XTARA achieved recently, whereby the April foal might still beat Zebzardee here, despite giving the Richard Fahey raider six pounds.

6.45 Chepstow:

Pot Luck is entitled to come on for her debut assignment, especially being a Pheonix Reach representative whereby every inch of this seven furlong event will be appreciated.  Sir Mark Prescott is having a lot of fun with his juveniles this season (more than is usually the case) and though Mirabai might be one for Nursery events later in the season, any money for Mark’s Poet’s Voice filly should be heeded.

7.15 Chepstow: 

PORCELAIN GIRL represents  value for money to limited stakes at around the 7/1 mark at the time of writing in a race which should not prove difficult to win.

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

PRICES OF THE TEAMS WHICH PLAYED YESTERDAY TO WIN THE TROPHY:

3/1—Brazil (Hills/Boyle/Unibet/888)

13/2—Belgium (Black Type) – as short as 5/1 elsewhere

Their match on Friday – 7.00pm Kick-off:

113/100—Brazil (Marathon)

5/2—Draw (365/Skybet/Hills/Betfair)

29/10—Begium (Marathon)

 

TODAY’S MATCHES:

SWITZERLAND V SWEDEN – 3pm kick off

179/100—Switzerland (Marathon)

41/20—Draw (Bet Stars)

85/40—Sweden (Marathon)

Half time betting:

66/25—Switzerland (Marathon)

10/11—Draw (365/Skyebt/Betfair/Betfred)

33/10—Sweden (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

43/50—Switzerland (Marathon)

13/12—Sweden (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

15/4–Switzerland/Switzerland (Unibet/888/Boyle)

17/1–Switzerland/Draw (188)

45/1–Switzerland/Sweden (Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet/888)

27/5–Draw/Switzerland (Unibet/888)

10/3–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

6/1–Draw/Sweden (Unibet/188)

40/1–Sweden/Switzerland (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet/888)

17/1–Sweden/Draw (BetVictor)

9/2– Sweden/Sweden (Boyle)

Both teams to score:

6/5 (YES) – (Generally available)

8/11 (NO) – (BetVictor/Bet Stars)

Unders/overs:

1/2–under 2.5 goals (Skybet/Bet Stars)

15/8–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Boyle)

24/5–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/188)

 

ENGLAND V COLOMBIA – 7pm kick off          

23/20—England (365/Betfair/Btedfred/Boyle)

57/25—Draw (Marathon)

16/5—Colombia (Boyle)

Half time betting:

2/1—England (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair)

22/23—Draw (188)

75/19—Colombia (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

14/25—England (Marathon)

48/29—Colombia (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

13/5–England/England (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Unibet/888)

18/1–England/Draw (Skybet)

55/1–England/Colombia (Ladbrokes/Coral)

17/4–Draw/England (Unibet/888)

7/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

79/10–Draw/Colombia (Marathon)

34/1–Colombia/England (Unibet/188)

18/1–Colombia/Draw (BetVictor)

63/10–Colombia/Colombia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

5/4 (YES) – (Marathon)

8/11 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

27/50–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

173/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Generally available)

22/5–3.5 goals or more (Marathon/Unibet/888)

Correct scores:

11/2—1-0 England (Bet Stars)

6/1—1-1 draw (Bet Stars)

13/2—0-0 draw (Unibet/888/Bet Stars)

17/2—1-0 Colombia (365/Betfair/Bet Stars/BetVictor)

9/1—2-0 England (Bet Stars)

10/1—2-1 England (365/Bet Stars)

16/1—2-1 Columbia (365)

20/1—2-0 Columbia (365/Bet Stars/188)

Jul 02

Daily Analysis – Monday 2nd

WINDSOR – JULY 2

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

2016: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 9/2 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 17/2 or less

2014: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 5/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 13 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—John Bridger (5/1, 5/1 & 11/4) – 1 runner tonight: Starchant (6.30

 

Leading represented trainer this season:

6/42—Richard Hannon (8/1 three times +5/1*, 3/1 & 4/9*) – 3 runners tonight: Time For Bed & Ginger Nut (6.30) & Topi (7.30)

 

For those that like to note interesting news on the trainer front in general terms:

Mark Johnston boasts a 5/15 record at Windsor this season (level stake profit of three points) but the trainer is not represented this evening, sending eight runners elsewhere, four at each of the meetings at Pontefract and Hamilton.

John Gosden is giving his runners a break until Wednesday (at the earliest) despite taking his seasonal stats at Windsor to 4/9 yesterday.

Michael Bell has saddled his last three runners to winning effect at 4/1, 11/4 & 15/8 – Michael has two declared at Chepstow tomorrow.

Jonathan Portman (two outsiders in the 6.00 at Windsor this evening) and Jonjo O’Neill (three potential runners at Stratford tomorrow) both boast recent ratios of 3/7.

Dan Skelton won with four of his six runners at Uttoxeter yesterday and goes in search of more swag at Stratford tomorrow – though the trainer is 0/13 there this season – time to break his duck you might think…..

 

Race by race analysis:

6.00: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last thIrteen renewals (vintage representatives are 1/2 to win before the form book is consulted on this occasion), though the top three in the market could all be given chances which swats yours truly to avoid the contest.  If the proverbial gun was put to my head to name the winner, I might opt for Pilgrim Soul against Cross My Mind and Sister Celine but is an in an hour or two, I might have changed my mind completely.  It’s that type of contest which Windsor seems to host on too many occasions for my liking.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date.

Overnight market activity:

Show Of force is attracting bits and pieces of interest at around the 16/1 mark.

 

6.30: ‘Team Hannon’ have won this event seven times in the last thirteen years (alongside various silver and bronze medallists), even though the trainer was not represented in the contest six years ago and again four years back.  Richard saddles Time For Bed and Ginger Nut in a bid to improve the record, though CHYNNA attracts the eye from Mick Channon’s yard with the trainer having stated that she is a “smashing filly” and being a late May foal, Chynna’s two outings should have set Charles Bishop’s mount up nicely here, with a ‘trap five’ draw aiding and abetting confidence.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fourteen favourites have won to date, with three of the other market leaders finishing in the money.

Win selection: Chynna

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note.

 

7.00: Four-year-olds have claimed four of the last ten contests, with ALKASHAAF appearing to be the pick of the two relevant entries this time around.  Unfortunately, the More Than Ready gelding renews rivalry with Varsovian on the same terms as when beaten a length and a half the last day at Leicester.  That said, Dean Ivory’s runner is put in at 2/1 here against the each way odds of 10/1 about my tentative selection.

Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites (via eleven renewals) have finished in the frame, statistics which include five (10/11—6/5–11/8–9/4** & 4/9) winners.

Record of the three course winners in the third race:

2/3—Ballesteros (good to firm & soft)

2/9—Morache Music (good & soft)

1/7—Musical Comedy (good to soft)

Each way selection to small stakes: Alkashaaf

Overnight market activity:

Bookmakers are taking no chances with Especia at the time of writing which makes for interesting reading.

 

7.30: DOUBLE UP runs off a two pound lower mark then when last successful in an A/W race at Kempton in November.  James Doyle boasts a 23% strike rate when riding for Roger Varian on turf down the years and it appears significant that this is his first ride for trainer on grass this term.  Ice Age is the obvious threat, especially at this venue given his track record which you can find below.

Favourite factor: Just two successful Market leaders to report during the last decade.

Win selection: Double Up

Record of the two course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

3/7—Ice Age (2 x good to soft & good to firm)

1/2—Human Nature (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

I wouldn’t expect the 7/2 quote about Double Up (available in two places at the time of writing) to be beaten later in the day.

 

8.00: There is no selection in this event as such, though I would suggest you take a look at the comment below in the overnight market activity sector.

Favourite factor: The two favourites have snared gold and silver medals to date.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Jus Pires (good)

Overnight market activity:

Never Surrender is the ‘unknown factor’ in this event, with the prices ranging between 4/1 and 7/1 in the dead of night.  I took the 7/1 from what looked a half decent quote, though those odds of not detracted at the time of writing.  Keep an eye on the market however as over twelve hours are left for the money to be put down, if that scenario evolves.

 

8.30: Any newcomer representing George Strawbridge (famous colour of white with a green hoop) saddled by Andrew Balding should be noted in dispatches irrespective of how the horse runs at the first time of asking.  Until Then is the relevant thoroughbred on this occasion, though on all known form, Humbolt Current should take the beating.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Win selection: Humbolt Current would become interesting if Until Then proves friendless in the market.

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note though support for Until Then during the day should be taken seriously.

 

9.00: Three-year-olds often wins these mixed vintage events (even in handicap form) and Al Ozzdi and Arendelle are expected to figure prominently at the business of proceedings.  That said, Jamie Spencer and Charlie Hills team up again in the last race on the card with TAI SING YEH who offers win and place appeal at the 10/1 on offer with two firms this morning.

Favourite factor: We have to go back six years to fin the only successful market leader during the last decade.  That said, eight of the ten winners were returned at a top price of 15/2.

Each way selection: Tai Sing Yeh

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/8—Harlequin Striker (soft)

1/1—Unsuspected Girl (soft)

Overnight market activity:

Nothing to to report as yet….

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.