Aug 28

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 28th

Monday school report:

Four MMA WINNERS at 9/1 (returned at 7/2), 9/1 (6/1), 6/1 (3/1) & 11/2 (11/4) more than paid our way on Bank Holiday Monday, whilst viewing tweets that so many people had ‘done their money’ on a day when collectively the view was “we should not really bet”!  They obviously tuned into the ‘wrong channel’!

TODAY’S ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA HORSES AT 6.30 (Low stakes are advised on a moderate day of sport):

EPSOM: 

2.10: Call Him Al – 13/2 (Paddy Power)

15/2: Hatsaway – 15/2 (PP)

4.20: Lady In Question – 11/2 (PP)

4.55: Windsorlot – 22/1 (Skybet)

5.25: Port Of Call – 3/1 (Betfair/PP)

RIPON:

3.00: Sword Of Gold – 17/2 (365) – Minimum stakes perhaps, though I cannot ignore the horse being eight pounds better in for a three and a quarter length beating by a rival (Iconic Choice) here who is offered at 11/8 in places, albeit Tom Dascombe’s raider won convincingly.

4.05: Indiain Chief – 10/1 (888)

4.35: Two horses to consider: Give It Some Teddy – 6/1 (Betfair/PP) & Totally Magic – 22/1 (Skybet)

5.05: Imperial Focus – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

STRATFORD: 

5.40: Polished Rock – 4/1 (F=Generally available)

7.10: Romanour – 3/1 (Generally available)

CHELMSFORD:

6.20: He’s Our Star – 5/1 (365)

6.50: Dolcissimo – 2/1 (365/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

7.20: Mullarkey – 7/2 (Generally available)

Aug 27

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 27th

Sunday’s school report: 

T’was a golden day on Sunday (I intimated that we would have some fun!) – 9 MMA horses offered – 4 winners at 18/1 (returned at 20/1) – 12/1 (9/2) – 11/2 (2/1) & 5/1 (4/5) – 2 horses offered to win the Nursery races (no other horses mentioned) produced a 17/1 double (winners at 6/1 & 13/8) + 7 winners via the previous course winners service.

One of our readers landed a return of £405 for a 10p e/w Lucky 31 – That’s the type of message I love to receive/report!

 

MONDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

EPSOM:

3.05: Jack Taylor – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: C’Est No Mour – 11/2 (Betfair/PP/888)

4.15: Gabrial – 9/1 (Betfair/PP/888)

5.25: Corazon Espinado – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/888)

CHEPSTOW: 

2.00: Field Of Vision – 10/3 (Generally available)

3.45: Lethal Guest – 16/1 (Betfair/PP/888)

4.20: Pastamakesufaster – 11/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

5.30: Elysees – 10/3 (Generally available)

RIPON: 

2.15: Be Proud – 15/2 (Betfair/PP)

2.50: Winged Spur – 15/2 (Generally available)

3.25: Militia – 3/1 (Hills)

4.00: Sporting Chance – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.45: Fillydelphia – 7/2 (365/Hills)

CARTMEL:

3.50: Kilfinichen Bay – 6/11 (PP)

4.25: Cash Again – 18/1 (PP)

5.00: Allbarnione – 11/1 (Generally available)

5.35: Toosey – 3/1 (Hills)

SOUTHWELL: 

1.50: Anna Jameela – 18/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.10: Kommander Kirkup – 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.45: Break The Silence – 11/2 (Skybet/Hills/BetVictor)

5.20: Bee Machine – 6/1 (PP)

5.55: Ava The Braver – 13/2 (Generally available

Aug 27

Daily analysis – Monday 27th

MONDAY:

There are no Nursery races today though just to update you after yesterday’s selections both won (17/1 double (6/1 & 13/8), that Archie Watson is now 6/9 in the two-year-old handicap sector, whilst James Tate has taken his tally to 5/9.

Archie has Capla Gilda entered in the 2.10 at Epsom tomorrow, whilst James has declared Royal Variety in the same event.  Something has to give on the morrow!

TODAY’S COURSE WINNER DETAILS:

SOUTHWELL:

1.50:

1/1—Surewhynot (0/7 at other A/W venues)

2/11—Bushel (0/9)

3.35:

1/2—Handsome Dude (1/6)

2/6—Poyle Vinnie (1/14)

2/7—Tricky Dickie (0/1)

1/2—Jabbarockie (0/1)

2/4—Jack The Truth (1/6)

3/5—Monks Stand (1/5)

3/8—Pearl Acclaim (0/17)

8/41—Crosse Fire (0/12)

4.10:

3/11—Kommander Kirkup (0/4)

4/15—Arcimedes (0/6)

5/34—Coiste Bodhar (1/23)

4.45:

1/5—Poppy May (0/3)

15/122—General Tufto (0/18)

5.20:

4/20—Limerick Lord (1/16)

2/3—Fossa (3/47)

Aggregate stats at Southwell – 1 win every five races

Combined at other venues – 1 win every 21.6 races

 

EPSOM:

3.05:

1/6—Pettochside (11/61 at other venues)

1/2—Bahamian Sunrise (4/40)

3.40:

2/4—C’Est No Mour (2/13)

1/17—Whinging Willie (7/58)

4.15:

1/3—Soveriegn Debt (14/59)

1/1—Connect (2/7)

4.50:

1/1—Liva (1/7)

5.25:

1/3—Corazon Espinado (2/10)

2/5—Duke Of North (4/34)

1/2—Deadly Accurate (0/10)

Aggregate stats at Epsom – 1 win every 3.7 races

Combined ratios at other venues – 1 win every 6.3 races

 

CARTMEL:

2.05:

1/1—Mac Tottie (1/8 elsewhere)

3.15:

1/2—Theflyingportrait (6/30)

3/3—Wells De Lune (5/21)

1/3—Applesandpierres (3/18)

2/8—Lough Kent (5/34)

3.50:

1/2—Souriyan (5/26)

3/10—Morning Royalty (5/38)

1/2—Fact Of The Matter (4/17)

2/4—Shake It Up (1/22)

2/2—Kilfinichen Bay (10/40)

4.25:

2/2—Raise A Spark (4/29)

1/4—Brace Spartacus (9/49)

4/15—Alderbrook Lad (7/39)

1/1—Mont Royal (5/35)

1/1—Border Breaker (3/27)

5.00:

1/1—Ennistown (2/13)

1/2—William Of Orange (4/19)

3/8—Volcanic (6/47)

2/5—Allbarnone (0/22)

2/13—Boruma (1/30)

5.35:

1/1—Toosey (0/4)

1/3—Justatenner (1/24)

2/4—What A Game (0/14)

1/2—Xpo Universel (0/21)

Aggregate stats at Cartmel – 1 win every 2.5 races

Combined at other venues – 1 win every 7.3 races

 

RIPON:

2.50:

2/2—Winged Spur (1/12 elsewhere)

3.25:

1/4—Daffy Jane (3/11)

1/3—Me Before You (0/9)

4.00:

1/1—Life Of Riley (0/5)

4.35:

1/1—Waarif (3/18)

4/6—Gurkha Friend (3/26)

1/3—Fayez (3/26)

1/5—Mikmak (2/26)

1/10—Two For Tea (5/54)

5.45:

2/6—Graceful Act (2/66)

Aggregate stats at Ripon – 1 win every 3.7 races

Combined at other venues – 1 win every 11.5 races

 

CHEPSTOW:

2.00:

1/5—Field Of Vision (2/36 elsewhere)

3/12—Satchville Flyer (7/67)

1/4—Sir Billy Wright (5/54)

1/3—Just An Idea (1/17)

4/12—Kinglami (7/66)

2.35:

1/3—Swinton Blue (2/30)

4.20:

2/12—Corporal Maddox (11/114)

2/15—Barista (7/61)

1/2—Captain Sedgwick (1/16)

1/1—Willsy (2/43)

7/38—Peak Storm (1/41)

4.55:

1/2—Secret Glance (2/30)

5.30:

1/5—Arty Campbell (4/32)

1/1—Roystonia (0/4)

Aggregate stats at Chepstow – 1 win every 4.2 races

Combined at other venues – 1 win every 11.7 races

Aug 26

Mal Boyle stats – Sunday 26th

Saturday’s school report:

5 WINNERS at 13/2 (returned at 7/2), 11/2 (7/2), 11/2 (4/1) 5/1 (4/1) & 15/8 (2/1) were okay, though the 4 second placed horses would have made all the difference had they gone ‘one better’, given their 16/1, 6/1, 5/1 & 5/1 morning prices.

Just 9 horses to offer today – could have some fun me thinks – Best of Luck!

SUNDAY’S ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

BEVERLEY:

2.10: Kody Ridge – 11/1 (Skybet)

2.40: The Big Bad – 7/1 (PP)

3.15: Snazzy – 9/1 (Generally available)

6.00: Market Choice – 8/1 (365/Marathon/BetVictor)

GOODWOOD: 

3.35: Red Charmer – 11/2 – (Unibet)

5.20: Firenza Rose – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

5.50: Paddy A – 8/1 (PP)

YARMOUTH: 

3.25: Excelled – 18/1 (365/BetVictor)

5.40: Spinart – 5/1 (Sky/BetVictor)

Aug 26

Daily analysis – Sunday 26th

Six year Corresponding stats for Beverley:

44 races – 16 winning favourites – All 44 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 5/2, 9/4*, 13/8* & 8/13) – 2 runners today: Eesha’s Smile (2.40) & Poetic Steps (3.50)

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Goodwood:

41 races – 7 winning favourites – 36/41 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Eve Johnson Houghton (9/2, 4/1, 7/2**, 10/3 & 3/1)

Unfortunately, Eve has no runners today.  Five trainers are on the two winner mark which given the six year history of the meeting, is nothing to write home about.   

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Yarmouth:

43 races – 15 winning favourites – 37/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainers:

3 winners—William Haggas (7/1, 7/2 & 15/8*) – 2 runners today: Mubtasimah (3.25) & Carrie’s Vision (4.00)

3 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (9/2*** & 11/4 twice) – 1 runner today: Mulan (3.25)

 

Today’s Nursery race information:

3.15 Beverley:

Archie Watson sits firmly at the top of the tree in two-year-old handicap races this season boasting a ratio of 5/8 in the sector!  Archie saddles Rockin Roy in this occasion.

4.00: Yarmouth:

James Tate has won with four of his eight relevant runners, with the trainer offering the green light to Autumn Splendour this time around.

 

TODAY’S 42 COURSE WINNERS AT THE THREE MEETINGS – RELEVANT STATS

BEVERLEY (20 IN TOTAL): 

2.10:

1/1–Dandy Highwayman (2/20 elsewhere)

3/18–Arcane Dander (1/30)

3.15: 

1/1–Rockin Roy (2/6)

1/1–Packington Lane (0/4)

1/1–Princess Power (2/5)

3.50: 

1/2–Zihaam (1/16)

4.25:

1/3–Mont Kinabalu (2/8)

1/6–Poet’s Dawn (0/12)

1/1–Moltoir (0/12)

1/2–Kannapolis (0/5)

5.00:

1/2–Mont Royal (0/16)

1/3–Archie Perkins (1/11)

2/14–John Caesar (0/38)

5.30: 

2/8–Roaring Rory (3/25)

2/5–Mininggolg (4/35)

1/7–One Boy (6/53)

1/5–Compton River (2.45)

1/5–Ettienne Gerard (4/43)

1/5–Newgate Sioux (0/11)

6.00:

1/1–Dandelion (2/18)

GOODWOOD (9): 

3.00:

1/4–Sing Out Lord (1/16 elsewhere)

1/1–Victory Charm (1/5)

3.35:

4/9–Balmoral Castle (4/31)

1/4–Mr Red Clubs (11/72)

1/2–Hard Toffee (1/20)

4.10:

1/4–Breton Rock (9/32)

3/5–Dutch Connection (2/21)

1/4–Zhui Feng (4/21)

2/3–Dancing Star (3/14)

YARMOUTH (13): 

2.20:

2/9–Lunar Deity (11/70)

1/4–Oceanus (1/23)

1/3–Lunar Magic (1/12)

1/7–Right About Now (0/9)

1/4–Sussex Girl (1/12)

3/17–Tyrsal (4/57)

2.50:

1/3–Great Hall (8/50)

1/3–Protected Guest (0/5)

4.00:

1/1–Autumn Spendour (0/3)

1/1–Carrie’s Vision (0/3)

4.35: 

1/3–Daira Prince (3/7)

3/6–Bint Dandy (5/63)

5.40: 

1/1–Kraka (0/9)

Aggregate stats of course winners: Winners of 1 in every 3.4 races

Their combined ratios at other venues: Winners of 1 in every 9.5 races

Aug 25

Daily analysis – Saturday 25th

Ebor Handicap analysis:

3.40 York: The number of three-year-old declarations in the Ebor Handicap has dropped, with only the very best vintage representatives able to take their place in the line-up which disappoints yours truly to a fashion. The last junior winner was recorded in 2001 and once again, three-year-olds are conspicuous only by their absence on this occasion.

The 2015 seven-year-old winner was the first older horse (seven or more) to win in over 35 years.

13 of the last 16 winners have been drawn fourteen or higher, with only two winners drawn in single figures during the study period.

The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4, whilst five-year-olds have secured six of the last 13 contests.

Two favourites have won via the last 19 renewals with 11 market leaders securing Placepot positions in the process.

Stratum is one of only three horses in the race to carry 9-2 or less, as eleven of the last thirteen winners have done.  The value on the projected favourite has long since dried up however, whereby Mountain Bell represents an each way shout given Marathon’s 25/1 quote this morning.

That said, Ralph Beckett’s raider has drawn trap six and has never raced on ground any firmer than good whereby the actual win and place selection is Crowned Prince whose stall 19 position is (seemingly) just what the doctor ordered.

The negative factor relating to Marco Botti’s raider however is the 9-7 burden.  The positives are the fact that he has gained all three victories in double figure fields having carried 9-5 successfully in the first of those races two years ago.  The ground also offers no concerns for connections.

Course winners in the Ebor Handicap:

1/2—Dylan Mouth (13/28 elsewhere) – No worries with ground conditions

1/2—Lord Yeats (2/14 elsewhere) – Softer ground would seemingly be ideal

1/2—Montaly (4/24 elsewhere) – 0/7 on good to firm

1/4—Nakeeta (4/31 elsewhere) – Last year’s winner – any ground comes alike

Mal’s 1-2-3-4-5

1—Crowned Prince

2—Stratum

3—Mountain Bell

4—Dylan Mouth

5—Nakeeta

 

Seven year corresponding year stats for York on Ebor Day:

49 races – 50 winner via one dead heat – 12 winning favourites – 35/50 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainers on the Saturday of the Festival:

4 winners—William Haggas (9/1, 8/1, 7/2 & 3/1*) – 3 runners ay York today (all with decent enough win and place chances): Seniority (1.50), Heart Of Grace (2.25) & Alfarris (4.50)

4 winners—Kevin Ryan (5/1**, 5/1, 3/1 * 5/2*) – 1 runner today: Savalas (5.20) – Arguably my best each way (bet to nothing) offering of the day – still 11/2 with Betfair & Paddy Power at the time of writing, though Sky have trimmed the price since I wrote my MMA column…

Aug 25

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 25th

Friday school report:

4 WINNERS on Friday at 8/1 (5/1), 7/2 (9/4), 7/2 (5/2) & 13/8 (11/8) – backed up by nine placed horses (average price of 5/1 – average of 7/2 SP), SEVEN OF WHICH FINISHED 2ND!

Let’s hope for a little more luck today…

 

SATURDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

YORK:

1.50: Lord Glitters – 15/8 (Hills)

2.25: Supernova – 5/1 (365/Ladbrtokes/Marathon/Betway/BetVictor)

3.00: Expert Eye – 11/8 (Generally)

3.40: Two horses to consider: Cowned Eagle – 16/1 (Betfair) & Mountain Bell – 25/1 (Marathon)

4.15: Glory Fighter – 14/1 (Generally)

5.20: Savalas – 11/2 (Skybet/Betfair/PP)

GOODWOOD: 

2.05: Altyn Order – 4/1 (Generally available)

2.40: Look Around – 4/1 (Hills/Betyfair/PP/Boyle/Bet Stars)

3.15: Vale Of Kent – 7/1 (Generally available)

5.00: Two to consider: Dell’ Arca – 11/4 (Marathon/Betfair/PP) & Maquisard – 16/1 (Generally)

NEWMARKET: 

2.50: Bullington – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.30: Eddystone Rock – 8/1 (Generally available)

4.05: LImato – 11/2 (Marathon)

WINDSOR:

6.15: Convey – 9/2 (Generally available)

6.45: Green Fortune – 11/2 (365/Ladbrokes/888)

7.15: Met By Moonlight – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.45: Optimum Time – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betfair/Coral/BetBright)

REDCAR:

6.30: Bill Cody – 13/2 (Betfair)

7.00: Von Blucher – 12/1 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

7.30: Two to consider: Beverley Bullet – 17/2 (Marathon) & Totally Magic – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.00: Nifty Niece – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

CARTMEL: 

2.10: Clemento – 5/1 (Generally available)

2.45: River Icon – 11/2 (Hills/PP)

3.20: Fair Exchange – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Strong Resemblence – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.05: Dodgybingo – 10/1 (Hills)

CHELMSFORD:

1.55: Storm Shelter – 14/1 (Marathon)

3.05: Volevo Lui – 3/1 (Skybt/Hills/BetVictor)

3.35: Ceramist – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.40: Construct – 5/1 (Coral)

Aug 24

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 24th

Just a brief note before offering today’s potential movers and shakers that the MMA service will be all that is provided for a while before taking stock of everything.

Changes are in the pipeline one way or another though as yet, we don’t know timescales.  Thanks for your patience/kind remarks yesterday.

 

FRIDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 7.00:

YORK:

1.55: First Nation – 5/1 (365/BetBright)

3.00: Emeraty Anna – 8/1 (Generally available)

4.15: Indomitable – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.50: Crack On Crack On – 5/1 (Generally available)

GOODWOOD: 

5.05: Haylah – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

6.35: Dark Shot – 10/1 (Generally available)

7.05: Highland Sky – 4/1 (365)

7.35: Simply Breathless – 10/3 (365/Skybet/888/BetVictor)

NEWMARKET: 

2.40: Christopher Wood – 8/1 (888)

3.15: Sangarius – 13/8 (Skybet)

3.45: Couldn’t Could She – 14/1 (365/Marathon/BetVictor)

4.20: Fire Jet – 10/1 (PP)

4.55: Sayem – 9/2 (Ladbrokes/888)

5.25: Galloway Hills – 11/2 (365/BetVictor)

FFOS LAS:

1.45: Improvising – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

2.50: Youkan – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.25: Give Em A Clump – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00: Twenty Times – 5/1 (Betfair/PP/Betway)

4.30: Gates Pass – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.00: Pepper Street – 7/2 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

SALISBURY: 

5.15: Gala Celebration – 2/1 (Ladbrokes/Black Type/BetVictor)

5.50: Garrison Commander – 8/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

6.25: Rosamour – 11/4 (365)

6.55: Dubai Domination – 11/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.25: Quick Breath – 4/1 (Generally available)

7.55: Golden Image – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

CHELMSFORD:

6.45: Spiced – 4/1 (Generally available)

7.15: Manson – 18/1 (Ladbrokes)

8.15: Zalshah – 12/1 (Befred/PP)

8.45: Lexington Empire – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Aug 23

Daily analysis – Thursday 23rd

No service today

I gave what I thought was a first rate service yesterday.  Have a look at the MMA work in particular and tell me if you could find a better run down of ‘movers and shakers’, notwithstanding the reasoning to back the ‘selections’ up.

Only a handful of people seem genuinely interested in my work, despite offering my working life to the sport and for today at least I cannot raise the enthusiasm to become involved.  I’m not hiding behind illness, a sick grannie or a demented wife, I’m just extremely disappointed.

I got up this morning at 3.30 and within half an hour I thought – what’s the point?

Ar present there is no point.

I expect I’ll be back tomorrow but that could just be a gradual wind down to bailing out completely.

Have a good day….

Aug 23

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 23rd

No service today

I gave what I thought was a first rate service yesterday.  Have a look at the MMA work in particular and tell me if you could find a better run down of ‘movers and shakers’, notwithstanding the reasoning to back the ‘selections’ up.

Only a handful of people seem genuinely interested in my work, despite offering my working life to the sport and for today at least I cannot raise the enthusiasm to become involved.  I’m not hiding behind illness, a sick grannie or a demented wife, I’m just extremely disappointed.

I got up this morning at 3.30 and within half an hour I thought – what’s the point?

Ar present there is no point.

I expect I’ll be back tomorrow but that could just be a gradual wind down to bailing out completely.

Have a good day….

Aug 22

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 22nd

YORK – EBOR MEETING – DAY 1

Seven year corresponding stats for the Wednesday in ‘Ebor week’:

42 races – 13 winning favourites – 28/42 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainers on day one:

Five different trainers have saddled three winners on the opening day during the study period, named in alphabetical order:

Richard Fahey (12/1, 8/1 & 13/2)

William Haggas (4/1**, 7/2* & 3/1)

Aidan O’Brien (7/1, 5/6* & 8/13*)

Kevin Ryan (16/1, 12/1 & 7/1)

Sir Michael Stoute (11/2, 4/1 & 5/4*)

 

1.55: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4, whilst we still await the first winning favourite following ten renewals.  Kevin Ryan has saddled two of the last five winners despite not having been represented last year.  Tommy Taylor has been offered the green light by Kevin this time around, potentially carrying 9-2 (drawn 11/20).  Holmeswood catches the eye with Sylvester De Sousa only booked for his fourth ride for Michael Dods, whilst Eastern Impact could be fancied to return to winning ways if first time blinkers galvanise Paul Hanagan’s mount into anything like his form of old.  Fashion Queen completes my quartet against the field for openers and David O’Mear’s raider would have been higher rated but for a trap one position which does not have a good record in the contest.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites to date have secured Placepot positions without winning their respective events.

Draw factor (five and a half furlongs – most recent result listed first):

8-5-2-9 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-2-19-4 (20 ran-good to firm)

5-3-7-6 (20 ran-good to soft)

15-8-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10-5 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-18-13-15 (19 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

15-16-8 (15 ran-good)

18-13-3 (17 ran-good to firm)

Record of the 13 course winners in the opening event:

1/6—El Astronaut (7/30 elsewhere) – 1/3 at York this season

1/2—Culturati (2/4 elsewhere) – First run at York this year

1/5—Gracious John (11/43 at other venues) – 0/1 at York this term

1/3—Fashion Queen (1/7 elsewhere) – First assignment at York this season

1/14—Line Of Reason (10/62 at other tracks) – 0/1 at York this year

2/4—Tommy Taylor (0/11 elsewhere) – 0/1 at York this season

1/4—Copper Knight (3/15 elsewhere) – No runs at York this term

1/1—Koditime (1/8 at other venues) – 1/1 at the term this term

1/4—Harome (4/23 elsewhere) – 1/3 at York this season

1/3—Holmeswood (3/13 at other tracks) – 0/2 here this year

1/2—Boom The Groom (6/59 (elsewhere) – No outings on the Knavesmire yet this season

1/6—Fendale (2/19 elsewhere) – 1/3 at York this season

1/8—Carlton Frankie (3/6 at other venues) – 0/3 at York in 2018

 

2.25: Six of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.  The projected favourite is trained by Richard Hannon who hasn’t trained a winner in the race and even his father only won it once in the last 25 years of his career. The second favourite is an Aidan O’Brien raider, with the trainer only boasting stats of 2/35 in this country of late. Those facts could offer each way opportunities to Persian Moon and Phoenix of Spain from my viewpoint. Trainer Mark Johnston (Persian Moon) is looking to win the race for the fourth time, albeit his last winner was recorded way back in 2004 which for a trainer of Mark’s distinction, is somewhat surprising.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 winners have been returned at odds of 4/1 or less (eight winning favourites), whilst 15 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

8-6-11 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

2-5-8 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-1-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-1 (6 ran-good to firm)

3-5 (5 ran-good to firm)

2-7-11 (13 ran-good to soft)

9-3 (7 ran-good)

7-10-2 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-4 (7 ran-good)

5-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-8-5 (8 ran-good)

5-1 (7 ran-good)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-3 (6 ran-good)

7-2-3 (9 ran-good)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

2-4 (5 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-4-6 (9 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the ‘Acomb’:

1/1—Persian Moon (1/3 elsewhere) -1/1 (being a juvenile) this season

 

3.00: Four of the last five favourites have prevailed, whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 3/1 during the period.  Cross Counter looks to have a solid chance from the top of the market, presuming that there will be little support for Aidan’s horses until they start winning this week. Rain could have reached York by lunchtime and if there is any depth to the wet stuff, Sevenna Star could outrun her price.  Wells Farhh Go won the ‘Acomb’ on this card twelve months ago and a decent effort here could put Tim Easterby’s raider in with a half decent chance in the St Leger next month.

Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 20 years, statistics which include eight successful market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Great Voltigeur’:

2/3—Wells Farhh Go (1/2 elsewhere) – 0/1 this season at York

 

3.35: Sir Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien 6-5 in this event, the two record holders in the race having finally been spilt last year when Michael saddled the winner.  History could repeat itself here with Poet’s Word seemingly holding the call on all know form.  That said, Roaring Lion is a top quality rival here and in receipt of seven pounds from Poet’s Word, John Gosden’s raider is offered great respect.  Six favourites have prevailed during the last decade and aside from a rogue 50/1 chance scoring three years ago, the biggest priced winner during the shortened study period scored at 7/1. This is the race in which Roberto beat Brigadier Gerard in the inaugural year of 1972.  Since then the 46 renewals have produced the following vintage trends; 3YO: 15 wins–4YO: 22 wins–5YO: 9 wins.  Benbati appears to hold the call over Thunder Snow relating to the pair of four-year-old representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders have won this event during the last 20 years alongside a joint favourite. 15 of the 21 market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the two course winners in the ‘Juddmonte’ field:

2/3—Thundering Blue (3/15 elsewhere) – 1/2 this term at York

1/1—Roaring Lion (4/8 at other venues) – 1/1 at York in 2018

 

4.15: Favourites have won three of the nine renewals, whilst four of the last five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  Five year-olds lead the four-year-olds 5/4 offering Natural Scenery as the win and place call, with 12/1 claimed earlier this morning.  That price has been cut to 9/1 in places, possibly as a result of Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners finally going into a top grade festival this season in half decent form.  The main threats from my viewpoint are Here And Now and Speedo Boy.

Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include three (9/2, 7/2 & 5/2) winners.

Record of the four course winners in the marathon contest:

4/14—Clever Cookie (2/16 elsewhere) – 0/2 here this season

1/2—Manjaam (4/20 elsewhere) – 1/2 at York in 2018

1/2—Northwest Frontier (3/13 elsewhere) – 1/1 this season at York

1/1—Davy’s Dilemma (3/11 elsewhere) – 1/1 here this term

 

4.50: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13, whilst only one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, six gold medallists were returned at prices ranging between 12/1 & 33/1.  Jedd O’Keeffe saddles his first Nursery runner of the season having recorded a ratio of 3/9 in the sector last season.  His raider Evie Speed had to have at least eleven horses withdrawn at the final declaration stage from the race if she was to run – and that is exactly what happened!  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, though those gold medallists were all fillies, with his trio of inmates on Wednesday all being colts/geldings.  That said, both Eljayeff and Gabrial The Wire have been leniently treated thus far from my viewpoint, even though they carry and pound or two more than the perfect weight according to recent trends. Back to more positive to finish on (as far as my trio against the field is concerned) as no horse has won this race from a stall position lower than five during the last decade.  That stat also backs the 33/1 chance of I’m A Dreamer whose course record is second to nine, albeit at this early stage of his career.

Favourite factor: Two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via 15 renewals of this two-year-old handicap.  Six of the last nine winners have scored at 33/1-33/1-20/1-12/1-12/1-12/1.

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/1—Hasslewood (0/2 elsewhere) – Two-year-old’s not applicable for obvious reasons!

1/1—The Great Heir (1/3 at other venues) ”

2/2—I’m A Dreamer (0/6 elsewhere) ”

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Today’s Nursery event:

4.50 York – see comment above

 

Nursery stats this season (56 races – 442 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 22nd August):

Favourite stats (61):                     

24 winners – 10 placed – 27 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

4/7

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/29—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

4/38—Richard Hannon (7/4*, 10/11*, 5/1 & 7/1) – 16/124 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/8—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/9—Michael Bell (11/4* & 6/1) – 1/10 last year

2/18—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/4—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Walker (5/4*) – 4/23 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/5—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/5—David O’Meara (5/1) 1/28 last year

1/7—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/8—Richard Hughes (3/1*) – 6/31 last year

1/9—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/14—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Ralph Beeckett (6/4 & 9/4)

2—William Haggas (15/8 & 11/8)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11 & 4/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

Sylvester Kirk (5/2)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

170 relevant runners: 46 winners – 43 placed – 81 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

256 runners – 59 winners – 54 placed – 143 unplaced (57.9% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

186 runners – 7 winners – 21 placed – 158 unplaced (42.1% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 42 winners – 40 placed – 153 unplaced (53.2% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 35 placed – 158 unplaced (46.8% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-9

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-2

One at 9-1

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater – 1/5 last year

0/1—Brian Barr – 0/4 last year

0/1—David Barron – 0/11 last year

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman – No runners last year

0/1—Marco Botti – 0/6 last year

0/1—Milton Bradley – No runners last year

0/1—Antony Brittain – 0/2 last year

0/1—Tony Carroll – 0/12 last year

0/1—Jane Chapple-Hyam – 0/1 last year

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam – 0/6 last year

0/1—Paul Cole – 1/9 last year

0/1—Susan Corbett – No runners last year

0/1—Ann Duffield – 2/31 last year

0/1—Harry Dunlop – 1/1 last year

0/1—Seamus Durack – 0/3 last year

0/1—Charlie Fellowes – 1/4 last year

0/1—Paul George – No runners last year

0/1—Ben Haslam – 2/10 last year

0/1—Christopher Kellett – No runners last year

0/1—Gay Kelleway – 2/5 last year

0/1—Michael Madgwick – 0/1 last year

0/1—Paul Nicholls – No runners last year

0/1—Linda Perratt – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Quinn – 3/34 last year

0/1—Pat Phelan – 0/1 last year

0/1—Henry Spiller – 0/2 last year

0/1—Bill Turner – 0/1 last year

0/1—Mark Usher – 0/13 last year

0/1—Roger Varian – 0/7 last year

0/1—Olly Williams – 0/2 last year

0/2—Robert Cowell – 0/2 last year

0/2—Andrew Crook – No runners last year

0/2—Michael Dods – 2/26 last year

0/2—Chris Dwyer – 1/3 last year

0/2—Robert Eddery – 0/2 last year

0/2—Brian Ellison – 2/8 last year

0/2—Steph Hollinshead – 1/9 last year

0/2—Daniel Kubler – 0/6 last year

0/2—Gary Moore – 0/12 last year

0/2—Stan Moore – 0/13 last year

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott – 3/8 – last year

0/2—John Ryan – 0/2 last year

0/2—George Scott – 1/10 last year

0/2—Bryan Smart – 0/18 last year

0/3—Alan Berry – No runners last year

0/3—Conor Dore – No runners last year

0/3—Mick Easterby – 0/16 last year

0/3—John Gallagher – 0/4 last year

0/3—Ron Harris – No runners last year

0/3—Philip McBride – 0/11 last year

0/3—William Muir – 1/6 last year

0/3—Amy Murphy – 0/7 last year

0/3—Adrian Nicholls – No runners last year

0/4—Andrew Balding – 1/13 last year

0/4—Tom Clover – 1/5 last year

0/4—Iain Jardine – 2/9 last year

0/4—Hughie Morrison – 0/4 last year

0/4—Adam West – 2/13 last year

0/5—Roger Fell – 0/7 last year

0/5—Jamie Osborne – 4/36 last year

0/7—Ralph Beckett – 4/17 last year

0/7—William Haggas – 5/15 last year

0/7—Sylvester Kirk – 4/22 last year

0/7—Brian Meehan – 1/18 last year

0/7—Joseph Tuite – 0/9 last year

0/8—Karl Burke – 6/40 last year

0/10—Tim Easterby – 3/62 last year

0/15—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

4—Sir Prancealot

3—Camacho

3—Exceed And Excel

3—Society Rock

2—Battle Of Marengo

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Compton Place

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dandy Man

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Lawman

1—Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sea The Stars

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

17—March (30.3% of winners)

16—February (28.6)

16—April (28.6%)

7—January (12.5%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

2 wins (Doncaster & Leicester) – Porcelain Girl (71 & 77) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Critical Data (82)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newmarket)—Star Terms (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Triggered (80)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Leicester) – Chonburi (69) & 1 unplaced (71)0

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Macho Lady (55) & 1 unplaced (55)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Kempton) – Wolf Hunter (63) & 1 unplaced (64)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 22

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 22nd

Tuesday school report:

Four WINNERS yesterday at 8/1 (returned at 2/1), 11/2 (11/4), 11/2 (4/1) & 7/2 (3/1) – 6 others were placed at an average early morning price of 13/2.

Mal pinpointed the only Nursery winner of the day (yet again) in his specialist area, whilst the horse in question (Wolf Hunter) was one of the four the MMA winners at 7/2.

The “best bet” at Newton Abbot was beaten by half a length having been backed down from 6/1 to 10/3 – I guess we can’t expect everything we opt for to go our way! Two of my big outsiders on the day finished out of the frame despite being backed down from 28/1 to 12/1 & 16/1 into 13/2…..

 

WEDNESDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30 (NOW WITH RELEVANT COMMENT WHERE APPLICABLE):

YORK:

1.55: Holmeswood – 12/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Coral) – Only 4th mount for SDS for Michael Dods – interesting booking – albeit in an extremely open renewal

2.25: Persian Moon – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – I’m surprised that the each way price is available

3.00: Old Persian – 16/1 (Betfair/PP) – Could sneak the frame at reduced odds later this morning

3.35: Latrobe – 20/1 (Betfair/PP) – not too many Irish Derby winners are offered at that price in the same season

4.15: Natural Scenery – 12/1 (Generally available) – each way opportunity in an open race

4.50: Evie Speed – 7/1 Generally available) – the most interesting runner on the entire card

BRIGHTON: 

3.25: Procedure – 2/1 (Generally available) – Sir Michael Stoute runners away from main meetings invariably pay their way

4.00: Fairlight – 15/8 (Skybet/Marathon/Unibet/BetVictor)

4.35: Lucky Beggar – 11/2 (Generally available) – Tiresome type but wrong price if in the mood

5.10: Perfect Pastime – 40/1 (Betfair/PP) – Must get shorter as the day evolves from my viewpoint

CARLISLE: 

2.05: Maureb – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.50: Rickyroadboy – 7/1 (Marathon)

4.25: Bahata Acha – 12/1 (Generally available)

4.55: Edgar Allen Poe – 16/1 (Ladbrokes) – Arguably the best each way bet on the card

5.55: Archive – 11/2 Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral/Black Type – Could develop into a decent ‘bet to nothing’ punt

WORCESTER:

5.00: Mercer’s Court – 4/1 (365/BetVictor)

6.00: Ocean JIve – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

7.00: Mizen Master – 13/2 Betfair/PP) – Richard Johnson’s mount would have been a cast iron e/way bet with another runner in the field – could still go very close

KEMPTON: 

6.15: Velvet Revolution – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral) – Potentially a big exchange player

6.45: Haafapiece – 11/2 (Ladbrokes) It’s in the lap of the gods, but price could seriously tumble

7.15: Occupy – 15/2 (Ladbrokes) – Could develop into a good punt with most eyes focused on York

7.45: Honey Man – 11/2 (Generally) – Great stall position/Jockey (SDS) will aid the cause

8.45: Chess Move – 8/1 (Generally available) – Price yet to plummet but that scenario could be on the cards later today

 

 

 

Aug 21

Daily analysis – Nursery Service + Preview of York’s opening day tomorrow

BRIGHTON – AUGUST 21

 

  • Please excuse the somewhat brief work pertaining to Brighton’s meeting which was a new fixture last year, hence the lack of detail. That said, I have offered details of the York races for tomorrow to make up for the lack of content today!

 

  • Today’s Nursery details follow the Brighton race by race analysis where are offered before Wednesday’s York details.

 

1.40: I could have opted for the outsider of the party Union Rose had there been some moisture in the ground but as things stand (no rain on the radar), Entertaining Ben might just last home on this company/grade.  Haylah is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.  No bet.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.10: Yuga Kawada has ridden a couple of winners from thirteen opportunities and will be out to impress Ralph Beckett on his first ride for the yard aboard Loving Pearl. Twenty years ago I would have travelling down to Brighton just to back Stormy Road as trainer Luca Cumani used to rule this particular roost, though more so in the three-year-old division as memory serves. No bet.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.

 

2.40: Sixteen days have passed since Eve Johnson Houghton saddled a winner (eleven runners during the period) which given the meteoric rise of the trainer during the last eighteen months or so, is something of a rarity.  Eve attempts to return to winning ways in this event and Kirkland Forever possesses each way claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Zoffany Bay strikes yours truly as the main threat with Silvestre aboard.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 2/1 favourite was beaten half a length when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to the 5/6/7 runner race in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

Each way selection to minimum stakes: Kirkland Forever

 

3.10Rocksette doesn’t exactly stand out from the crowd here but in a race which offers few (if any) clues, some support in the dead of night suggests that Gary Moore’s new inmate could turn several consistent placed efforts into winning form.

Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 10/1 and 6/4* in another short field event twelve months ago.

Win selection to minimum stakes: Rocksette

 

3.40: One of the two course winners in this four runner (win only) contest, Mamillus gets the marginal nod, mainly because cheek-pieces are back on which could make the difference between victory and defeat in this low grade.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/6 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.10:  Despite the trade press comment of Andrew Balding being in good form, it’s rarely (if ever) worth accepting quotes like that without studying the facts.  Yes, Andrew had been in fine form but with only two of his last eighteen runners having scored, you might want to give such words a wide berth!  That said, there is no denying that Dream Catching boasts claims, though Dusty is the marginal preference given the general odds on offer (9/4 against 10/11).  Last year’s comment (I still retain this belief), bearing in mind that I tipped I’m A Believer in the race (relating to the group The Monkees) – Davy Jones (lead singer) dropped out of secondary school to become….an apprentice jockey.  If you think life is hard on you at times, think of Davy who died of a heart attack at 66 years of age without an ounce of fat on his body.  Indeed, he ran several miles a day and as the doctor who pronounced him dead said at the time, “this is one person I never expected to die this way”.  Finishing on a brighter note, I also dropped out of secondary school (at 13) but have never had enough courage to even sit on a horse, let alone ride one.  I have the greatest respect for jockeys who risk life and limb every day having only reached that position by working hard to get to a position when yes, they can earn lots of money.  How many youngsters are prepared to work that hard these days?  I have always been governed by the rule that you only get out of life what you are prepared to put in.  I don’t think there has ever been a jockey who has ridden their first winner without having to work damn hard for the opportunity.

Favourite factor: The Placepot positions last year were occupied by horses which were returned at 3/1, 8/1 & 5/2*.

Win selection to minimum stakes: Dusty

 

4.40: Alketios was the best backed horse at the meeting overnight and realistic money is still in the positive exchange queue at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/11 favourite was beaten a neck by an 11/2 chance.

Win selection: Alketios

 

Today’s Nursery race:

2.00 Kempton:

The 6/31 Nursery stats for Richard Hughes last year were perfectly acceptable in what is always a tough sector to call; hence the reason for offering as much information as possible in our quest to beat the old enemy

Richard is still searching for his first two-year-old handicap winner this season and I’m hoping that Wolf Hunter can end Richard’s tally of seven beaten representatives this year.

Skybet’s offer of 7/2 stands out from the crowd and Richard appears to have found a cast iron chance for his Sir Prancealot gelding who was beaten less than two lengths the last day on his sixth appearance which was his first try in handicap company.

The official assessor has dropped the April foal a pound and as Richard stated before the season that this “character” is likely to improve with racing via a stable tour earlier in the year, Wolf Hunter is the call, albeit Shane Kelly’s mount enters my ‘last chance saloon’.

Clive Cox saddles just his forth Nursery runner on the season (one winner to date) and his Tamayuz filly Lady Mona might offer most resistance to the selection at the business end of proceedings.

 

Nursery stats this season (55 races – 430 runners – as of Tuesday morning – 21st August):

Favourite stats (60):                     

23 winners – 10 placed – 27 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

4/7

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/29—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

4/38—Richard Hannon (7/4*, 10/11*, 5/1 & 7/1) – 16/124 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/8—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/9—Michael Bell (11/4* & 6/1) – 1/10 last year

2/18—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/3—Ed Walker (5/4*) – 4/23 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/6—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/5—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/5—David O’Meara (5/1) 1/28 last year

1/9—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/13—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Ralph Beeckett (6/4 & 9/4)

2—William Haggas (15/8 & 11/8)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11 & 4/1)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

Sylvester Kirk (5/2)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

174 relevant runners: 45 winners – 42 placed – 80 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

242 runners – 48 winners – 53 placed – 141 unplaced (56.3% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

188 runners – 7 winners – 20 placed – 161 unplaced (43.7% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 41 winners – 40 placed – 147 unplaced (53.0% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 33 placed – 155 unplaced (47.0% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-9

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-2

One at 9-1

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater – 1/5 last year

0/1—Brian Barr – 0/4 last year

0/1—David Barron – 0/11 last year

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman – No runners last year

0/1—Marco Botti – 0/6 last year

0/1—Milton Bradley – No runners last year

0/1—Antony Brittain – 0/2 last year

0/1—Tony Carroll – 0/12 last year

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam – 0/6 last year

0/1—Paul Cole – 1/9 last year

0/1—Susan Corbett – No runners last year

0/1—Ann Duffield – 2/31 last year

0/1—Harry Dunlop – 1/1 last year

0/1—Seamus Durack – 0/3 last year

0/1—Robert Cowell – 0/2 last year

0/1—Charlie Fellowes – 1/4 last year

0/1—Paul George – No runners last year

0/1—Ben Haslam – 2/10 last year

0/1—Christopher Kellett – No runners last year

0/1—Gay Kelleway – 2/5 last year

0/1—Michael Madgwick – 0/1 last year

0/1—Paul Nicholls – No runners last year

0/1—Linda Perratt – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Quinn – 3/34 last year

0/1—Pat Phelan – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Ryan – 0/2 last year

0/1—Henry Spiller – 0/2 last year

0/1—Bill Turner – 0/1 last year

0/1—Mark Usher – 0/13 last year

0/1—Roger Varian – 0/7 last year

0/1—Olly Williams – 0/2 last year

0/2—Andrew Crook – No runners last year

0/2—Michael Dods – 2/26 last year

0/2—Conor Dore – No runners last year

0/2—Chris Dwyer – 1/3 last year

0/2—Robert Eddery – 0/2 last year

0/2—Brian Ellison – 2/8 last year

0/2—Steph Hollinshead – 1/9 last year

0/2—Daniel Kubler – 0/6 last year

0/2—Gary Moore – 0/12 last year

0/2—Stan Moore – 0/13 last year

0/2—Amy Murphy – 0/7 last year

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott – 3/8 – last year

0/2—George Scott – 1/10 last year

0/2—Bryan Smart – 0/18 last year

0/3—Alan Berry – No runners last year

0/3—Mick Easterby – 0/16 last year

0/3—John Gallagher – 0/4 last year

0/3—Ron Harris – No runners last year

0/3—Philip McBride – 0/11 last year

0/3—William Muir – 1/6 last year

0/3—Adrian Nicholls – No runners last year

0/3—Adam West – 2/13 last year

0/4—Andrew Balding – 1/13 last year

0/4—Tom Clover – 1/5 last year

0/4—Iain Jardine – 2/9 last year

0/4—Hughie Morrison – 0/4 last year

0/5—Roger Fell – 0/7 last year

0/5—Jamie Osborne – 4/36 last year

0/7—Ralph Beckett – 4/17 last year

0/7—William Haggas – 5/15 last year

0/7—Richard Hughes – 6/31 last year

0/7—Sylvester Kirk – 4/22 last year

0/7—Brian Meehan – 1/18 last year

0/7—Joseph Tuite – 0/9 last year

0/8—Karl Burke – 6/40 last year

0/10—Tim Easterby – 3/62 last year

0/14—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Camacho

3—Exceed And Excel

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Battle Of Marengo

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Compton Place

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dandy Man

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1–Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Lawman

1—Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sea The Stars

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

17—March (30.9% of winners)

16 winners—February (29.1%)

15—April (27.3%)

7—January (12.7%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

2 wins (Doncaster & Leicester) – Porcelain Girl (71 & 77) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Critical Data (82)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newmarket)—Star Terms (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Triggered (80)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Leicester) – Chonburi (69) & 1 unplaced (71)0

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Macho Lady (55) & 1 unplaced (55)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

Race by race stats/facts for Day 1 of York’s Ebor Meeting:

1.55 (All aged Class 2 handicap event over five and a half furlongs)

Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4, whilst we still await the first winning favourite following ten renewals.  Kevin Ryan has saddled two of the last five winners despite not having been represented last year.  Tommy Taylor has been been offered the green light this time around, potentially carrying 9-2 (drawn 11/20)

2.25: (Group 3 Acomb Stakes):

Six of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 4/1, statistics which include two clear market leaders and one joint favourite.  The projected favourite is trained by Richard Hannon who hasn’t trained a winner in the race and even his father only won it once in the last 25 years of his career. The 2nd favourite is an Aidan O’Brien raider with the trainer only boasting stats of 2/35 in this country of late. Those facts could offer each way opportunities to Persian Moon and Phoenix of Spain from my viewpoint

3.00: (Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes):

Four of the last five favourites have prevailed, whilst the other gold medallist scored at just 3/1 during the period.  Cross Counter looks to have a solid chance from the top of the market, presuming that there will be little support for Aidan’s horses until they start winning this week.  Rain could have reached York by lunchtime on Wednesday and if there is any depth to the wet stuff, Sevenna Star could outrun her price.  Wells Farhh Go won the ‘Acomb’ on this card twelve months ago and a decent effort here could put Tim Easterby’s raider in with a half decent chance in the St Leger next month.

3.35 (Group 1 Juddmonte International):

Sir Michael Stoute leads Aidan O’Brien 6-5 in this event, the two record holders in the race having finally been spilt last year when Michael saddled the winner.  History could repeat itself here with Poet’s Word seemingly holding the call on all know form.  Six favourites have prevailed during the last decade and aside from a rogue 50/1 chance scoring three years ago, the biggest priced winner during the study period scored at 7/1.

4.15 (Two mile Handicap event):

Favourites have won three of the last nine renewals, whilst four of the last five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1.  I need to offer more time to assess this race as it looks to be the toughest race on the card to call, even with the twenty runner Nursery event to follow!

4.50 (Six furlong Nursery event for two-year-olds)

Eight of the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 8-13, whilst only one favourite has obliged via the last ten renewals during which time, six gold medallists were returned at prices ranging between 12/1 & 33/1.  Jedd O’Keeffe saddles his first Nursery runner of the season having recorded a ratio of 3/9 in the sector last season.  His raider Evie Speed had to have at least eleven horses withdrawn at the final declaration stage from the race if she was to run – and that is exactly what happened!  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, though those gold medallists were all fillies, with his trio of inmates on Wednesday all being colts/geldings.  That said, both Eljayeff and Gabrial The Wire have been leniently treated thus far from my viewpoint.

 

 

 

Aug 21

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 21st

Monday school report:

It was our first losing day since Thursday, though I did suggest that low stakes should be the order of the day, notwithstanding three winners at 4/1 (returned at 3/1), 7/2 (7/4) & 5/2 (5/4).

TUESDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

BRIGHTON:

3.10: Rocksette – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.40: Mamillus – 11/4 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

4.40: Alketios (Generally available)

HAMILTON: 

1.50: Big Les – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.50: Two horses to consider: Ayutthaya – 11/2 (Betfair) & Give It Some Teddy – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.50: Lucky Ellen – 5/1 (365/Marathon)

4.20: Liars Corner – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/Skybet)

4.55: Two horses to consider: Redarna – 11/2) & Allux Boy – 9/1 (both horses/prices on offer with Skybet/PP)

YARMOUTH: 

4.50: Camino – 40/1 (Skybet)

5.20: Queen Constantine – 5/2 (Hills/PP)

5.50: Buxted Belle – 10/1 (Skybet)

6.20: Slow To Hand – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

7.20: Viscount Loftus – 8/1 (Marathon)

7.50: Topmeup – 11/2 (Betfair)

NEWTON ABBOT:

5.00: Spicy Fruity – 28/1 (365/Betfair/pp)

6.00: Cleni Wells – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.30: Versifier – 6/1 (365/Betfair) – Looks to be the stand out bet on the card

KEMPTON:

2.00: Wolf Hunter – 7/2 (Skybet)

3.00: Progressive Dawn – 13/2 (Generally available)

4.30: Galipoli – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

5.05: Chagoti – 8/1 (Generally)

5.35: Saumer – 6/1 (Generally available)

 

  • LOW STAKES IS ALSO THE ADVISE TODAY BEFORE TOMORROW’S EBOR MEETING AT YORK HOLDS CENTRE STAGE!

Aug 20

Daily analysis & Nursery service

WINDSOR – AUGUST 20

Five year corresponding stats for this meeting:

30 races – 14 winning favourites – 28/30 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer:

3 winners—Gary Moore (5/1, 11/10* & 6/11*) – No runners tonight unfortunately…..

 

5.30: The 7/2 quote by Betfair and Paddy Power about the chance of Hats Off To Larry might not last long this morning, with the Sixties Icon raider being as short as 5/2 in places at the time of writing.  Mick Channon chances a seven pound claimer aboard the four-year-old, though it should be noted that the pilot boasts a 21% strike via seven winners to date.  The drop back down in trip for the course and distance winner could make all the difference, as ‘Larry’ was winning his second race in three starts when scoring here last month.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader snared the bronze medal alongside a Placepot position.

Win selection: Hats Off To Larry

 

6.00: William Haggas was always going to give his Oasis Dream raider Luxor time from what he was saying about the January foal back in the spring. William was suggesting at the time that this individual is all about speed, though we might not see the very best of him this side of the new year.  The dam Entitled scored at the second time of asking whereby connections will not mind too much if beaten today, providing that James Doyle’s mount shows plenty of promise which is fully expected. Temujin and Wild Abandon have also created quote loud jungle drums before their respective debuts this evening.  Definitely a race to record….

Favourite factor: This juvenile event is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

6.30: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last nine (and nine of the last eleven) contests, with vintage representatives Wilbury Twist and Bubble And Squeak making most appeal this time around.  The latter named Sylvester Kirk representative is the win and place call, given the 11/2 quote by 888.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and two joint favourites have secured this prize during the last twelve years, whilst 12 of the 16 jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Each way selection: Bubble And Squeak

 

7.00: A good judge suggests that Udontdodou won’t be far away in this cavalry charge, whilst my interpretation of what is always a difficult race to call suggests that Louie De Palma will get his revenge on Silent Echo on four pounds better terms for a length beating when the pair met here recently. Clive Cox does well with his sprinters, whilst the trainer has saddled more winners here (53) that at any other (turf) venue during his career which now spans eighteen years.

Favourite factor: Both market leaders have finished out with the washing to date.

Each way selection: Louie De Palma

 

7.30: I put forward Harry Hurricane at 9/2 in the dead of night with George Baker’s six-year-old now as short as 3/1 in places, though 4/1 is still available with 888 at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished third in a short field event, missing out on a Placepot position.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way & Placepot investors.

Win selection: Harry Hurricane

 

8.00: MIDI has parents to die for being a Frankel colt who has Midday for a mum and it would be really disappointing if he was not up to winning this contest, despite the ability shown by a decent looking rival in Petrastar. A wind operation had hopefully dispelled any doubts about Midi’s potential and this opportunity should be secured en route to better things without too much fuss – hopefully.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Windsor programme.

Win selection: Midi

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Today’s Nursery races:

2.20 Leicester:

Six renewals to date which have produced just one successful (3/1) favourite, with the market leader scoring back in 2013. Indeed, four winners have scored in double figures, the prices ranging between 10/1 and 12/1.

Five of the six gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-4 and the first name to put on the team sheet is Quiet Waters and not only because trainer Archie Watson is looking to saddle his sixth Nursery winner via just eight runners this term.

Much depends on the behaviour of Archie’s Society Rock filly because for all that the trade press consider that the April filly flopped on her two-year-old handicap debut the last day, the ‘journo’ who wrote the piece clearly didn’t see her antics in the stalls, because all hope was gone long before the traps opened.

I guess the ‘scribe’ was in the bar at the time, offering the type of casual comment we have unfortunately become used to down the years.

If Holly Doyle’s mount makes a madam of herself again this afternoon, connections of Sabai Sabai and Porcelain Girl should prove to be the main beneficiaries between them.

For the record, the writer of the nonsense should note that the handicapper has Archie’s filly on the same mark today, which would most certainly have not been the case had she simply “flopped”.

There is some money starting to build for Symphony at around 18/1 as I close out this area of inspection.

 

4.20 Leicester:

I must confess that I had given up on Five Helmets before Tom Dascombe’s gelding won at Beverley the other side of the weekend.

That said, the Helmet representative had only to beat a depleted field and as much as the seven pound claimer in the saddle should ensure that Five Helmets becomes competitive again, I can’t erase some previous disappointing efforts from my mind, albeit Tom had plenty of faith from day one which I reported before his Beverley debut back in May.

Richard Hannon has finally found a little consistency with his junior handicappers where Chonburi could be the main danger this afternoon, though you could not prize money out of my wallet in the race, even if you had a crocodile on a leash ready to chase me into the betting ring on your behalf!

Nursery stats this season (53 races – 410 runners – as of Monday morning – 17th August) – Note that I now offer the complete set of last year’s relevant figures regarding trainer stats:

Favourite stats (58):                     

23 winners – 10 placed – 25 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

4/7

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/27—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

3/36—Richard Hannon (7/4*, 10/11* & 7/1) – 16/124 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/8—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/16—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

9/4

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Ed Walker (5/4*) – 4/23 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/5—David O’Meara (5/1) 1/28 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/9—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/13—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—William Haggas (15/8 & 11/8)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Sylvester Kirk (5/2)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

160 relevant runners: 43 winners – 39 placed – 78 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

234 runners – 46 winners – 50 placed – 138 unplaced (57.1% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

176 runners – 7 winners – 19 placed – 150 unplaced (42.9% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 39 winners – 37 placed – 137 unplaced (52.0% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 32 placed – 151 unplaced (48.0% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-9

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-2

One at 9-1

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater – 1/5 last year

0/1—Brian Barr – 0/4 last year

0/1—David Barron – 0/11 last year

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman – No runners last year

0/1—Marco Botti – 0/6 last year

0/1—Milton Bradley – No runners last year

0/1—Antony Brittain – 0/2 last year

0/1—Tony Carroll – 0/12 last year

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam – 0/6 last year

0/1—Paul Cole – 1/9 last year

0/1—Susan Corbett – No runners last year

0/1—Ann Duffield – 2/31 last year

0/1—Harry Dunlop – 1/1 last year

0/1—Seamus Durack – 0/3 last year

0/1—Robert Cowell – 0/2 last year

0/1—Charlie Fellowes – 1/4 last year

0/1—Paul George – No runners last year

0/1—Ben Haslam – 2/10 last year

0/1—Christopher Kellett – No runners last year

0/1—Gay Kelleway – 2/5 last year

0/1—Michael Madgwick – 0/1 last year

0/1—Gary Moore – 0/12 last year

0/1—Amy Murphy – 0/7 last year

0/1—Paul Nicholls – No runners last year

0/1—Linda Perratt – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Quinn – 3/34 last year

0/1—Pat Phelan – 0/1 last year

0/1—John Ryan – 0/2 last year

0/1—George Scott – 1/10 last year

0/1—Henry Spiller – 0/2 last year

0/1—Bill Turner – 0/1 last year

0/1—Mark Usher – 0/13 last year

0/1—Roger Varian – 0/7 last year

0/1—Olly Williams – 0/2 last year

0/2—Andrew Crook – No runners last year

0/2—Michael Dods – 2/26 last year

0/2—Conor Dore – No runners last year

0/2—Chris Dwyer – 1/3 last year

0/2—Robert Eddery – 0/2 last year

0/2—Brian Ellison – 2/8 last year

0/2—Steph Hollinshead – 1/9 last year

0/2—Daniel Kubler – 0/6 last year

0/2—Stan Moore – 0/13 last year

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott – 3/8 – last year

0/2—Bryan Smart – 0/18 last year

0/3—Alan Berry – No runners last year

0/3—Mick Easterby – 0/16 last year

0/3—John Gallagher – 0/4 last year

0/3—Ron Harris – No runners last year

0/3—Philip McBride – 0/11 last year

0/3—William Muir – 1/6 last year

0/3—Adrian Nicholls – No runners last year

0/3—Adam West – 2/13 last year

0/4—Andrew Balding – 1/13 last year

0/4—Tom Clover – 1/5 last year

0/4—Iain Jardine – 2/9 last year

0/4—Hughie Morrison – 0/4 last year

0/5—Roger Fell – 0/7 last year

0/5—Jamie Osborne – 4/36 last year

0/6—Ralph Beckett – 4/17 last year

0/6—William Haggas – 5/15 last year

0/6—Sylvester Kirk – 4/22 last year

0/6—Joseph Tuite – 0/9 last year

0/7—Karl Burke – 6/40 last year

0/7—Richard Hughes – 6/31 last year

0/7—Brian Meehan – 1/18 last year

0/10—Tim Easterby – 3/62 last year

0/14—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Camacho

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Battle Of Marengo

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dandy Man

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1–Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sea The Stars

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

17—March (32.1% of winners)

16 winners—February (30.2%)

13—April (24.5%)

7—January (13.2%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Critical Data (82)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newmarket)—Star Terms (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Triggered (80)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Wolverhampton) – Macho Lady (55) & 1 unplaced (55)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

Aug 20

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 20th

Sunday’s school report:

We blasted the layers in fine style yesterday, our third successive day of taking the bookies to the cleaners!

7 MMA runners – 4 WINNERS at 10/1 (returned at 9/2) – 15/2 (11/4) – 15/2 (7/2) – (5/1 (5/1) + runner up at 9/2 (7/2) which produced an 18/1 forecast….

 

  • Keep stakes on the low side today given the modest sport on offer – we don’t want to donate those hard earned profits back to the layers before the Ebor meeting gets under way!

 

MONDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30 – followed by today’s teaser & one to look out for:

LEICESTER:

2.20: Symphony – 18/1 (PP/Unibet/Coral)

2.50: Point In Time – 4/1 (Generally available)

THIRSK: 

2.05: Olivia R – 8/1 (Generally available)

3.35: Eastern Racer – 4/1 (365)

4.05: Champagne Rules – 8/1 (365/Hills/Betway/BetVictor)

5.05: Uncle Charlie – 12/1 (PP/Betfair)

5.35: Gaelic Wizard – 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

WINDSOR: 

5.30: Hats Off To Larry – 7/2 (Betfair/PP)

6.00: Temujin – 8/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.00: Louie De Palma – 9/1 (Betfair)

7.30: Harry Hurricane – 9/2 (Skybet/888)

8.00: Midi – 5/2 (Hills)

BANGOR:

5.40: Lester Kris – 4/1 (PP/Berfair)

6.10: Zolfo – 5/1 (888/BetVictor)

6.40: Borak – 6/1 (BetVictor)

7.10: Craigmor – 11/4 (Skybet/888)

 

Today’s teaser:

Dr Richard Newland has just the one runner engaged today, which is Henry Smith (5.40 Bangor).

Henry Smith would appear to have a decent chance at around the 7/2 mark but with a course record of just 3/34 at Bangor, Richard has gained far better ratios at other tracks such as 5/12 at Perth and 4/9 at Lingfield.

Add Richard’s seasonal stats of 10/20 in Novice races and 10/31 in handicaps this term – whereby his maiden race record of 1/12 looks poor by comparison.

Henry Tudor contests a maiden event today which goes to show that homework often pays off, though will it on this occasion?

 

Look out for:

Evie Speed who won last time out and is pencilled in for the big Nursery event at York on Wednesday.

The main reason for pointing out the Dawn Approach filly is that Jedd O’Keefe enjoyed one of the best ratios in two-year-old handicap races last term (3/9 – stats which produced 19 points of level stake profit).

The problem however is that Jedd needs at least eleven horses to be withdrawn for his late April foal (there should be plenty of improvement to come) to figure in the handicap.

We will know later this morning but if the declarations go against the stable, there is no back up plan for the filly at the time of writing, who would be Jedd’s first runner in the Nursery sector this season of horses drop by the wayside…

For the record, Jedd has no other potential Nursery runners until Sunday at the earliest….

 

Aug 19

Daily analysis & York stats/facts for Wednesday – Sunday 19th

PONTEFRACT – AUGUST 19

Six year corresponding stats for Pontefract:

44 race – 17 winning favourites – 42/44 winners scored at a tip price of 11/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—Richard Fahey (ranging between 5/2 & 7/1 – 3 winning favourites) – 4 runners today: Don Logan (2.00), Dance Eva & Darkanna (3.35) & Crownthorpe (4.05)

 

  • Similar stats are available for Southwell following Pontfract’s race by race analysis
  • I start my countdown to York’s big Ebor meeting today offering stats/facts about two of Wednesday’s races which can be found below

 

2.00: Let’s be honest (as opposed to media types who hype up this sport all too often), this is a disappointing meeting – and then some. With precious little money about on either the books or the exchanges and only one renewal to work with, I wouldn’t insult your intelligence by offering a selection.  For the record, Richard Fahey (Don Logan) has forty two-year-old winners to his name this season, if that stat persuades you to part with your ‘hard earned’.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged.

 

2.30: Three-year-olds have won four of the last nine contests which about is par for the course in these mixed vintage events. Typically, Mark Johnston is the only trainer to have ‘seen the light’ whereby Lynwood Gold is the tentative call, though not with enough confidence to part with cash.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via 17 renewals to date.  Eleven of the nine favourites have snared Placepot positions in the process.

 

3.05: Fourteen of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more though just the two outsiders of the party can be eliminated via the stats this time around.  The major problem I have with the contest is that Ed Dunlop is heavily involved, given that he trains the warm favourite.  I haven’t been guilty of backing an Ed Dunlop winner since the ‘rappers’ somehow found their way into the music business, though I use the combination of rap and music against my better judgment. Not wishing to single out Ed for my misguided viewpoint of his runners down the years, I also nominate his brother Harry into the fold which is so against the grain, given that dad John and I had a wonderful arrangement of backing winner upon winner when he ruled Arundel in all of its pomp and glory.  I should point out that John was unaware of ‘our arrangement’!  When I back his son’s runners they lose and vice versa if I opt for their relevant rivals.  Ed saddles the 11/10 favourite which is the only horse with ticks of the afore mentioned trend (vintage & weight) boxes.  Case closed – no bet!

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst 11 of the 22 market leaders claimed Placepot positions.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals. The pick of the relevant quintet of representatives on this occasion will hopefully prove to be Promising who looked a tad too big at 9/1 in the dead of night though I notice that few (if any) of my (insomniac) followers have seemingly plunged in to take that price. Golden Spell and Tirania are others that could reward each way investors from my viewpoint, the pair being listed in order of preference behind the selection.

Favourite factor: Four favourites (including two odds on chances) have scored via eighteen renewals to date.  That said, only two of the other fifteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

Each way selection: Promising

 

4.05: Eleven of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less and the trend could continue here via Autretot and Crownthorpe who could please the vast majority of the crowd by sending more fancied southern rivals home licking their wounds.  David O’Meara (Aurtretot) is finally getting his act together after a torrid ten months or so by his high standards, having saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: Six of the nineteen favourites have won to date, with ten market leaders securing Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Autretot

 

4.40: I would rather visit the mother-in-law draping a red blanket around my lower portions than get involved in this event.  There is no interest among bookmakers, punters, exchange players or yours truly less than five hours before the meeting starts.  I’m not the only one swerving the contest…

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract and we can only hope next year’s renewal offers a more interesting event.

 

5.10: I gave Round The Island a chance only a few days ago and though Richard Whitaker’s raider failed to respond to my kind words about his ability, Richard has made a habit of surprising people at these northern tracks down the years and this could be another example of his skill. I’m not in the habit of chasing losses (never have been – never will be) but this finale will take next to no winning whereby I’m offering the dual course and distance winner a reprieve.  That said, I’m aware that seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-5 to victory which suggests that The Amber Fort could also outrun the odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won four of the last eight contests, with a top priced winner emerging at 11/1 during the period.

Each way selection: Round The Island

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

There are no Nursery races today – Service will be back on Monday to cover the 2.20 & 4.20 (relevant) races at Leicester alongside updated stats for this season.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Southwell this afternoon:

45 races – 21 winning favourites – 43/45 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Dan Skelton (9/4, 11/8*, 5/6* & 10/11*) – 6 runners today: One For Billy (2.50), Too Many Diamonds (3.25), Zebi Boy (3.55), Sheelbewhatsheelbe (4.25), Baron Von Chill (5.00) & King’s Reste (5.30)

 

Over the next few days I will be offering some stats/facts for some of the York races at the Ebor meeting which are not generally covered by the press/media/Internet contributors, not nearly as much as some of the other races for sure:

WEDNESDAY:

Group 3 Acomb Stakes (scheduled for 2.25):

Although five of the last nine winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 (three successful market leaders), the other four gold medallists scored at 10/1, 11/1 & 16/1 (twice).

 

Five trainers who have saddled winners during the last 30 years have potential runners in the race:

3 winners—Mark Johnston (2004/2002/1995) has two entries

2 winners—William Haggas (2015 & 2011) has one entry

2 winners—Kevin Ryan (2016 & 2005) – one entry

1 winner—Charlie Hills (2014) has three options

1 winner—Aidan O’Brien (2000) has two entries

 

Nursery event (scheduled for 4.50):

Richard Fahey has won three renewals since 2012 and the popular trainers has three potential runners on Wednesday, all of which would be contesting their first Nursery event if offered the green light.

Gabrial The Wire – Won at the third time of asking (Novice event) and went down by two and a half lengths in a Class 2 Conditions race at Chester last time out. Potentially runs from a reasonable mark of 84 by the official assessor.

Eljayeff – Has won last two of four assignments to date.  His mark of 85 is fair enough for what he has achieved.  His sire Bungle Inthejungle has already been responsible for two Nursery victories this term.

Absolute Dream – Yet to win following five assignments.  Dropped to a mark of 80 now despite having already snared gold and silver medals on the Knavesmire from just the two relevant appearances at York.

 

Richard’s previous details regarding his recent winners of this contest:

2016: The Wagon Wheel won on her second start having won a Beverley maiden event at the first time of asking. Beaten on her next five starts following victory in this event.

2015: Mayfair Lady won her previous race having snared silver and bronze medals on her first two starts.  Beaten in her next two, she returned as a three-year-old to score on her seasonal debut.

2012: Mary’s Daughter had previous won on her second start, followed victory in this race with no wins from ten subsequent assignments.

 

I guess the negative ‘Fahey factor’ this year is that all three horses are colts, as opposed to Richard’s trio of winning fillies mentioned above.

 

General stats: Only one favourite has scored during the last nine renewals during which time, eight winners carried a maximum burden of 9-2 albeit to quote just the last three contests, horses from that sector of the handicap supplied 90.7% of the total number of runners.

Aug 19

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 19th

Friday school report:

Please look at my Twitter page for all the details surrounding Saturday’s 8 WINNERS following Friday’s annihilation of the layers!

  • I have offered some details of today’s runners at Deauville below the usual due to a lack of depth today!

SATURDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

PONTEFRACT:

3.35: Promising – 9/1 (Skybet)

5.10: Round The Island – 15/2 (Generally available)

SOUTHWELL: 

2.20: Royal Supremo – 15/2 (Betfair/PP) – possible small saver? Old Pride – 9/2 (365/BetVictor) – Coupled = 12/5

3.25: Voix D’Eau – 10/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Boyle/BetVictor)

3.55: Mighty Leader – 7/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Unibet/Betway/BetVictor)

5.30: Blackdown Hills – 5/1 (Betfair)

 

Our runners over at Deauville today in their four main races:

1.35:

Hughie Morrison: (2 of his last 3 runners have won: Marmelo & Nearly Caught

2.45: 

Karl Burke: (6 straight losers, though previous 3 runners won: True Mason & Comedy

Mark Johnston: Marie’s Diamond

Mick Channon: Kinks

John Quinn: Signora Cabello

Michael Bell: Pretty Pollyanna

3.20: 

Wiliam Haggas: Urban Fox

Martyn Meade: (last two runners have won): Wilamina

4.00:

Charlie Fellowes: Crimson Rosette

John Gosden: (Latest ratio: 3/9) – Precious Rainbow

Luca Cumani: God Given

 

 

Aug 18

Daily analysis – Saturday 18th

NEWBURY – AUGUST 18

Six year corresponding stats for Newbury:

44 races – 13 winning favourites – 42/44 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

4 winners—William Haggas (15/2, 7/1, 10/3 & 11/8*)

4 winners—Roger Varian (12/1, 9/1, 13/8* & 5/4*)

 

  • Similar six year ratios can be found for Doncaster, Newmarket, Ripon, Perth & Market Rasen following Newbury’s race by race analysis. Yesterday’s service offered a 16/1 winner for Mick Channon from just two runners on the Nottingham card, whilst a 5/1 (William Haggas) runner was highlighted at Newbury.

 By the by, with just one very ordinary Nursery event today, the service will be back on Monday. The six represented trainers in the 3.35 at Newmarket today ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 8/86 in two-year-old handicap races this season, compared to a ratio of 14/22 via the top four contributors this term.  There are no Nursery events on Sunday

 

1.50: 13 of the last 15 winners were sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include eight successful favourites of one description or another.  Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last twelve winners whereby Ryan Moore’s mount The Trader is the first name on the team sheet. It’s interesting to note that Ryan has ‘only’ ridden for Mark on 64 occasions in 18 years, whereby his lone booking for the trainer is worth noting when looking for his twelfth winner for the stable.  Albeit that the two horses are listed the other way around in the early market, Anontia De Vega was more positive than Boitron early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last 18 years.  11 of the 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection to minimum stakes: The Trader

 

2.25: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared six of the last twelve renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ event, with Charlie Appleby looking to have a strong hand this time around having declared both Hamada and Walton Street. Best prices this morning inform us that we can ‘couple’ the pair at 6/4 (11/4 and 8/1 respectively) which will do for me.

Favourite factor: Thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include ten winners. Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
Betting option: Couple the Charlie Appleby pair.

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last twelve renewals which makes for impressive reading as only 24% (32/133) of the relevant fields were made up of junior representatives.  A quintet of junior raiders have been declared with Mystic Flight expected to lead home the other four contenders, though Zalshah could reward each way investors at around the 20/1 mark.  All that said, I’m pinning my hopes on Charles Molson, who is still available at 16/1 with Boylesports, despite Sea Fox having been withdrawn this morning.  The seven-year-old does not win as often as he should but on the pick of his best form, his each way chance is there for all to see.  It says much for the average summer weather in this country that three of the last four renewals have been contested with the word ‘soft’ featuring in the going description!

Favourite factor: Three of the last sixteen favourites have won, results which came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 25/1-20/1-16/1.

Each Way selection: Charles Molson

Draw factor (seven furlongs – most recent result listed first):

11-16-5 (10 ran-soft)

5-14-9-12 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-8-13 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-13-2 (14 ran-good)

12-1-2 (14 ran-good to firm)

14-1-10 (15 ran-good)

2-7-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)

13-14-12 (14 ran-good to soft)

13-8-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-9-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-7-15-2 (16 ran-good)

4-6-3 (10-good to firm)

15-6-2 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-5-7-13 (18 ran-good)

6-2-7 (9 ran-good)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

       

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, though three-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests of this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, despite the fact that no junior runners were involved two years ago.  33/1 is an insult to the chance of Mick Channon’s raider Dan’s Dream who will be ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.  I confess to putting the three-year-old up at 28/1 earlier this morning and cannot believe that her price has grown bigger in the interim period, given that some moisture in the ground plays to her strengths.  The fact that six renewals have slipped by since the last market obliged adds some clarification, with the last two gold medallists having scored at 12/1 and 11/1.  Sir Dancealot and Gustav Klimt boast definite claims but can hardly be classed as ‘bulletproof’ by any stretch of the imagination, especially at the cramped odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years.  Ten of the twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Each way selection: Dan’s Dream

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-5-7 (8 ran-soft)

6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-13-7 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (5 ran-good)

4-10-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

 

4.10: Not a race I am interested in but there must be a fair chance that the 9/10 quote by Marathon about Sextant will not last long, with only Prabeni offering any resistance on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged.

 

4.40: 12/1 always looked too big about the chance of Winged Spur this morning when I homed in on Silvester’s mount for the Mark Johnston team in the dead of night.  17/2 is the average price on offer at the time of writing and win, lose or draw, value is the name of the game in my book.  Adjutant is another win and place type that could outrun his price and whilst Hidden Depths is an obvious candidate, 5/2 makes no appeal whatsoever.

Favourite Factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame via four renewals, stats which include two winners which were both returned at 9/4.

Each way selection: Winged Spur

 

5.15: These amateur rider races usually make limited appeal from my viewpoint but there is no disputing the fact that 11/4 about Outofthequestion was a fair enough price earlier this morning, given the records of Alan King and Serena Brotherton in this event. Indeed, the jockey has won six renewals during the last decade whilst Alan King is hoping to take his tally to three in the contest during the period. You might be able to obtain 9/4 now, though 2/1 will be the price before too long I’ll wager.

Favourite Factor: The last seven winners of this event have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which include three successful market leaders.

Win selection: Outofthequestion

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Doncaster:

45 races – 7 winning favourites – 43/45 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Roger Varian (7/1, 7/1, 5/1, 9/2 & 5/2)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Newmarket:

42 races – 9 winning favourites – 33/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Richard Fahey (8/1, 5/1, 5/2**, 5/2** & 2/1*)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Ripon:

42 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

4 winners—Richard Fahey (25/1, 12/1, 9/2, 9/2*, 4/1*, 3/1 & 1/20*)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Perth:

42 races – 12 winning favourites – 40/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

6 winners—Lucinda Russell (7/1, 7/1, 4/1, 7/2, 5/2 & 11/8)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Market Rasen:

37 races – 13 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 9/1:

Leading trainers:

3 winners—Brian Ellison (8/1, 9/4* & 13/8*)

 

 

Aug 18

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 18th

Friday’s school report:

With seven winners at 33/1 (returned at 14/1) – 12/1 (4/1) – 10/1 (8/1 albet via a dead heat) – 13/2 (10/3) – 13/2 (4/1) – 9/2 (6/1) & 11/4 (2/1) – We’ve experiences worse days!

Throw in four seconds (all backed off the boards) alongside WINNERS at 16/1 & 5/1 via highlighted trainers and yes, you could say I was pleased with the day’s work!

That said, you are only ever as good as your latest winners so the merry-go-round is about to be switched on again – hoping you back lots of winners this weekend

 

  • By the by, with just one very ordinary Nursery event today, the service will be back on Monday. The six represented trainers in the 3.35 at Newmarket today ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 8/86 in two-year-old handicap races this season, compared to a ratio of 14/22 via the top four contributors this term.  There are no Nursery events on Sunday.

 

SATURDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

DONCASTER:

1.45: Persuing Steed – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.50: Missy Mischief – 15/8 (Unobet)

3,25: Muntadad – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

4.00: Two horses to consider: Harome – 5/1 (Generally available) & Bashiba – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.05: Andok – 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

NEWBURY: 

1.50: The Trader – 6/1 (365/Boyle)

3.00: Charles Molson – 16/1 (Hills/Boyle)

3.35: Dan’s Dream – 28/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Winged Spur – 12/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Outofthequestion – 11/4 (365/Betfair/PP)

NEWMARKET: 

2.10: Aquanura – 2/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.45: Count Otto – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.20: Case Key – 8/1 (PP)

5.05: Gododdin – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.35: Highlight Reel – 7/1 (Generally available)

RIPON:

1.30: Whiskey And Water – 2/1 (Hills)

2.05: Quick Look – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

3.15: Terentum Star – 10/1 (365/Hills/Betfair/PP)

4.25: Two horses to consider: Weellan – 11/2 (Generally available) & Club Wexford – 9/1 (365)

CHEPSTOW (TRANSFERRED FROM BATH):

7.10: Redgrave – 7/1 (PP/Betfair)

7.40: Long Call – 14/1 (365/Ladbrokes)

8.10: Foxangel – 9/2 (Berfair/PP)

PERTH: 

1.25: Lincoln County – 8/1 (BetBright)

2.30: U Name It – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.05: Cubomania – 5/2 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/Coral)

4.15: Uptown Funk – 10/3 (Marathon)

4.45: Dun Faw Good – 13/2 (Skybet/BetVictor)

MARKET RASEN:

4.55: King Alfonso – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.30: Brecon Hill – 17/2 (365/BetVictor)

6.00: Silent Account – 14/1 (Generally available)

7.00: Boss Des Mottes – 6/1 (Generally available)

7.30: Bellany Knight – 12/1 (Hills)

8.00: Chieftains Choice – 10/1 (Hills)