Powers Gold Cup Trends
Tomorrow at Fairyhouse sees the 51st renewal of the Powers Gold Cup, a hotly contested Grade 1 novices’ chase, run over two and a half miles.
It is almost always won by a high class animal, and last year was no exception as the talented if slightly frustrating Aran Concerto prevailed in a thrilling four way skirmish, touching off Barker, Deutschland and Trafford Lad.
Aran Concerto returned at 7/2, and was the ninth horse from the last ten winners to pay odds of 7/1 or shorter. Indeed, the only ‘outlier’ was One Cool Cookie in 2007, who hardly caused a shock when triumphing at 12/1.
So we’re looking to the head of the market here. That said, only Like-A-Butterfly has given favourite backers a return on their flutter (pardon the pun), since Native Upmanship and Sackville recorded back-to-back successes for the jolly at white collar odds of 5/4 and 4/6 respectively at the turn of the century.
Age has been relatively helpful in trying to whittle Powers Gold Cup fields down, with horses winning as young as 6 and as old as 11. However, eight of the last ten champs were aged six to eight, so it may prove best to err on the side of relative youth here.
Seven of the last ten winners had run in Ireland last time, having bypassed the Cheltenham Festival and, of the three to run at Cheltenham prior to victory here, the best they managed in the Cotswolds was fourth.
Allied to that, seven of the last ten winners finished in the first three last time out in an Irish novice chase.
On the trainer front, Willie Mullins has yet to win this race, having saddled plenty of runners (four of the eight last year, two in 2006, two in 2005, one in 2004, two of the three runners – favourite and second favourite(!) – in 2003, and one in 2001), so that would appear to count against his Shakervilz and Kempes.
More positively, Noel Meade has tasted the whiskey twice since 2003, with Thari and Aran Concerto. He’s lining up Fisher Bridge, Jered and Nicanor this time and, based on the trends at least, Fisher Bridge each way might be the pick.
Given the late spot in the novice chaser’s seasonal calendar, it is perhaps not surprising that seven out of the last ten winners had already run in a Grade 1 Chase (though only two won), so give extra points for those that have taken on strength in depth at the top level.
Pulling all of these strings together gives a shortlist at the five day stage of Roberto Goldback and Zaarito.
Although Zaarito’s jumping has been calamitous at times, he’s getting his act together now, as a much better round at Naas last time testifies. His last four form figures are 1FF1, and that illustrates well enough the iffy nature of his fencing. He is a classy enough sort, though, and might be the one to beat if his jumping holds.
Roberto Goldback has done very little wrong, starting out with a close second to Osana, then falling when in the mix in the Grade 1 Drinmore over course and distance. Since then, he’s won a Grade 2 and was a close up 3rd behind the ill-fated Citizen Vic in the Grade 1 Dr PJ Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown last time.
The form looks bulletproof, with the winner upsides when falling two out in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, a race that was won by the runner-up in the same PJ Moriarty, Weapon’s Amnesty.
Weapon’s Amnesty would probably be odds on here, so Roberto Goldback must go close.
