Eddie O`Gradys juvenile hurdler Alaivan (4/6F) slammed his rivals in Saturdays Grade Two Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse and in so doing shot to the head of The Triumph Hurdle ante-post lists with some firms. Andrew McNamara had few problems landing the odds and his hurdling was particularly impressive. Without doubt his shrewd trainer will have him tuned up for the big day in March though his conqueror at Christmas, Carlito Brigante, will take beating I feel.

It was a shame that the high profile Naas meeting scheduled for Sunday fell foul to the continuing harsh winter weather as it was set to provide some valuable clues to some major events ahead. Nonetheless there were plenty of interesting performances during the past week. Some of the other highlights included -:

FEB 20th

FAIRYHOUSE

• In addition to the Juvenile Hurdle reviewed above the other Grade Two on  the Fairyhouse card was the At The Races Bobbyjo Chase and it produced a 1-2 for the Dessie Hughes yard when Vic Venturi (3/1), ridden by Paddy Flood, defeated  stablemate Black Appalachi by 8 Lengths with One Cool Cookie back in third. The Aintree Grand National is on the winners agenda and given his previous good form around the track he will have a sporting chance in April.

• Day Of A Lifetime, from the all conquering Willie Mullins stable, was a springer in the Festival Bumper Market on Saturday morning and he gave his Ante-Post supporters plenty of hope when making an impressive debut in the card’s concluding Bumper under the trainer’s son Patrick. Sent off the red-hot 2/5 Favourite he sauntered to an easy five and a half length victory.

FEB 18^th

CLONMEL

• The Powerstown Chase was the Feature race in Clonmel on Thursday and it was won in effortless fashion by Quiscover Fontaine (6/5F). It was yet another prize for the unstoppable Willie Mullins yard, which completed a treble on the card. The winner coasted to a 17L victory under Emmett Mullins from Swift Counsel.

• The other Willie Mullins` winners were The Midnight Club (Evens Fav) who won the Beginners Chase, completing a double for Emmett Mullins on the card, and Some Target (8/13 Fav) who was guided to victory by Ruby Walsh in the Demense Maiden Hurdle.

FEB 17^th

PUNCHESTOWN

• There were a number of Cheltenham bound horses in action at Punchestown on Wednesday. Current favourite for the Neptune Investments Novice Hurdle, Rite of Passage, put up a most polished performance and impressed again with a facile win in the opening race. Sent off a prohibitive 2/7 shot he travelled smoothly, jumped very well and effortlessly out-pointed the useful Healys Bar to cement his Festival claims for D.K Weld and Robbie McNamara.

• Also heading to the Cotswolds is Sabrina Harty`s stable star Won In The Dark who readily justified Even money favouritism in the Five Day Festival Hurdle under jockey Davy Russell. He will be an outsider in the Champion Hurdle and there will be worse long-shots in the race!

• A major talking point at Punchestown on Wednesday was the monstrous gamble that was landed by the Gordon Elliott trained and Joey Elliott ridden Cayo Levantado in the Handicap Hurdle on the card. The winner was available at 20/1 in the morning and was incredibly backed all the way down to a starting price of 2/1.!  Though he looked in trouble as they turned in to the home straight the layers had their worst fears realised when Cayo Levantado found his second wind and stayed on stoutly for a memorable win.

Trainers in form;

E.O`Grady, W.Mullins, G.Elliott, D.Hughes.

.

Happy Punting

JOE Q

With just another one and a half lengths back to a 50/1 rag, Dun Bawn, the form proves little more than the 2/7 favourite still has a quartet of limbs, and each of those is in the correct spot anatomically.

In doing so, he completed his preparations for the Cheltenham Festival, where he’s likely to avoid a clash with potential superstar, Dunguib.

Dermot Weld was stoic after the race, commenting, “It was a satisfactory performance but that’s as far as I would go. “He found the track a little bit tight. It’s only his second run over hurdles and the reason for bringing him here was to experience the undulations. It took him time to get use to them, which he did.

“That would indicate to me that we’ll let him take his chance in the Neptune, the two-mile-five novice hurdle at Cheltenham. That’s likely to be his next race.

“He wasn’t spectacular, or overly impressive, but he did it nicely.”

Festival trials are pretty much coming to an end now, and aside from the novices many of the Irish contenders have now had their final preparations. The 26 races staged between the 16^th and 20^th March aren’t traditionally races for favourites – a huge 77% of them have been beaten since 2002. In addition, the stats don’t bode well for those priced 4/1 or less…

Of the 99 horses to be sent off at an SP of 4/1 or shorter since 2006, a huge 76 of them have been beaten. These included Binocular, L’Ami, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss last year – all of which were considered to be so-called “bankers”. In this article we’re going to take a look at some of the hottest betting prospects with just under five weeks to go…

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Dunguib

If there’s anything this horse isn’t at this stage it’s a Champion Hurdler. He isn’t the most fluent jumper of fences, but what he lacks in the jumping department he more than makes up for with this skill and ability to travel supremely well through a race. He’s already proven at Cheltenham and remains unbeaten over hurdles after a superb victory in the Deloitte today. He’s absolutely no price at a best price of evens, but in all honesty I can’t see him being beaten at all…

30 of the last 35 winners of this race were aged five or six, whereas Dunguib is seven. I don’t see it as a negative as he has more experience and maturity than some of his opponents. The fact that jockeys are more eager to win races at the Festival normally results in a frantic gallop and tendency to “go for home” much earlier than usual. This means Dunguib’s proven ability to cope with the undulations and stay 2m2f in heavy ground should stand him in good stead.

RSA Chase – Punchestowns

Punchestowns is a general 3/1 shot for the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase after his thoroughly impressive victory in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase this weekend. We don’t know much about him at this stage, but he was a high-class hurdler and has jumped well on the whole in two appearances to date.

Nicky Henderson has expressed his concerns about getting a run into the horse, as he is a large individual and really needs a lot of work. He missed a fence down the back straight at Sandown last time out, but recovered well to win going away at the finish after being fifteen lengths down with three to jump. He showed tremendous battling qualities and tenacity to win the way he did, and certainly looks like he’d appreciate the step back up to three miles plus.

His main market rivals at this stage are stablemate Long Run and Nick Williams-trained Diamond Harry. Long Run looked a potential superstar when landing the Feltham at Kempton in December. It was a fast pace that day which suited this horse, and subsequent winner Tazbar was the only one who could race with him upon leaving the back straight.

Nevertheless, he proved no match for Long Run who cruised away from the second last in the hands of Sam Waley-Cohen for an easy win. The doubt with him is whether he’ll be able to get into a rhythm in order to jump well over three miles round Cheltenham, and there are also question marks about him staying the trip. His trainer has expressed his concerns, and it might prove best to either go for the Arkle or wait for Aintree.

Pandorama is the main Irish contender, and looks set to run a big race if he takes to the undulations of the course. He’s unbeaten in three over fences having already won the Drinmore and Knight Frank novice chases. Whether he’ll stay a very testing 3m1f remains to be seen, and with that said probably has a lot to do to compete with the English-trained runners.

At this stage Punchestowns doesn’t necessarily look a strong favourite. Diamond Harry looked a potential superstar when hammering Knockara Beau at Haydock last time out and Weird Al is another who will probably appreciate the longer trip and both have previous course form to their name. In order to be considered a serious bet though, we’d have to see Diamond Harry run again.

Ryanair Chase – Poquelin

This year’s renewal of the Ryanair Chase looks wide-open and you’d have to say Poquelin is there to be shot at. He’s yet to compete in a top-class chase, and was beaten comfortably by Tranquil Sea on his second start this season. The race he won subsequently didn’t look quite as competitive, and albeit the Nicholls horse does look to be improving Tranquil Sea does look a decent price to frank the form off level weights.

Barbers Shop looks a cut below the absolute top-level when competing at three miles, and this testing 2m5f trip has twice seen him finish a close second. He has to be a serious contender with Imperial Commander more likely to go for the Gold Cup, and shouldn’t be discounted. Voy Por Ustedes looks as though his best days are long gone, but this race could be set up for either Joncol or Schindlers Hunt.

2m5f round here is more like three miles these days, and that looks as though it’ll suit Joncol ideally. Last seen when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier this afternoon, he displayed some real battling qualities to prevail from Cooldine and looks likely to reverse the form with Tranquil Sea for a one length beating now he’s 10lbs better off. Chapoturgeon is another “live” contender and Schindlers Hunt would have to improve but stands a decent chance on his 3^rd place finish in this race last season.

Conclusion

The Cheltenham Festival is an ideal race for layers, and regularly sees a number of horses considered to be “bankers” get beaten decisively. With Irish-trainer runners winning seven of the last nine renewals of the opener, Dunguib looks the most likely short-priced winner at this stage although his price isn’t very attractive.

A better strategy might be to simply lay all runners priced 4/1 or less, which would have proved more than profitable for the past four years. These are the biggest races of the National Hunt season, and it’s important to remember that short prices are not synonymous with certainties.

Connor Gallagher is a professional horse racing bettor and form analyst. If you’d like to learn how to bet methodically and discover how to win consistently, then I highly recommend you read the articles on his blog and sign-up for his weekly tips and advice bulletin by going to: http://www.horseracingbulletin.com/

Wow, things are really starting to heat up with regards to the Cheltenham Festival in March. The thing that really starts to frustrate punters at this time of year, though, is the endless hype regarding the more high-profile entries…

Whenever a horse wins or is beaten in a “trial” you can pretty much guarantee there’ll be a story about it on the Racing Post within minutes. The problem here is that it’s all too tempting to get sucked in and start believing everything you read – after all, this is the racing MEDIA.

My advice is to use your own judgement. You’re not going to become a successful bettor if you’re spending most of your day reading news articles. Instead, focus your efforts on watching race replays, analysing statistics and delving into form lines. I promise it’ll be more than worth it come race day.

This week I’ve been looking ahead to the Champion Hurdle which – in my opinion – is the most intriguing race of the entire four days aside from the third round of Denman vs. Kauto…

Zaynar currently heads the ante post market at 5/1. He’s a compact, well-built individual and is a real prospect when it comes to staying races. Sure, he’s got plenty of speed and won the Triumph here last year – but if you ask me, he possesses the ideal combination of speed and stamina that would put him in with every chance of dethroning Big Bucks in the World Hurdle.

Just take a look at the figures. He’s a French-bred gelding who stayed 1m6f on the flat, and his last two runs have been over 2m4f or further – arguably the two occasions on which he’s been most impressive. Most recently he won over an extended 20f in extremely testing conditions at Cheltenham. The pace was far from frantic, but I personally find it hard to believe that Go Native would have stayed that trip in soft ground…

I’m not saying Zaynar isn’t a two-miler – he could well be another Hardy Eustace – but his form figures suggest he’ll be much better over further. Now if we take a look at the previous seasonal record of winners, we’ll see that previous Festival form is essential. Five of the winners won or placed in the previous year’s Champion Hurdle – whilst three of the remaining four came from the Triumph, Supreme Novices’ or RSA.

Of those that fit the bill, I genuinely don’t know what’s happened to Binocular. I wouldn’t rule him out just yet, but he doesn’t seem to be capable of achieving the level of form he showed last year. Celestial Halo looks a perfect two-miler and is a real model of consistency. Beaten at Aintree (stepped up to 20f) on the back of a gruelling effort to finish 2^nd in this race last year, he should be forgiven his latest effort on ground that wouldn’t have done him any favours.

Starluck is somewhat of an enigma. He was backed off the boards at Kempton on Boxing Day after previously finishing 2^nd to Mr Thriller at Haydock, and put his best foot forward in finishing a close second to Go Native. On the other hand, the winner was most definitely idling in front, and the runner-up is probably pretty flattered by how close he came to victory that day. I doubt he’s anywhere near good enough on a testing track.

I don’t think Medermit is good enough either. Every year Alan King seems to come out with a young pretender and this year appears to be no different to me. It remains to be seen just how classy this horse is, but the level of form he’s shown this year wouldn’t give him a cat in hell’s chance against the market principles.

And so we come to Punjabi – last year’s winner. Again, if you ask me, his price of 10/1 is crazy considering he’ll be trained to the minute on the day. Remember, the race isn’t run in December or January. He’ll be spot on come Cheltenham, and we shouldn’t be judging him on his latest effort. He came there hard on the steel with every chance round the turn, before blowing up (not literally!) when push came to shove.

If he wins a race between now and March my guess is he’ll likely shorten significantly in price. On the other hand, he might do absolutely nothing and drift out to 25/1. It’s your call, but he’s my idea of the most likely winner at this stage.

It genuinely is wide open, and as much as I think Go Native is as versatile as they come, I wouldn’t want to be backing him at 6/1. His price isn’t likely to contract much more before the race, and I’d prefer to take 5/1 on the day – when he’s certain to run – than take 6/1 now and be kicking myself if he picked up an injury.

Connor Gallagher is a professional horse racing bettor and stats analyst. If you’d like to get more tips and advice like this direct to your inbox, then why not sign-up to Connor’s weekly e-letter by going to: http://www.horseracingbulletin.com

The curtain raiser on Tuesday is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and this has been an Irish banker in recent seasons. In fact, in the last decade, excluding 2001 when foot and mouth forced the cancellation of the Cheltenham Festival, no fewer than seven of the nine winners have been trained from Ireland.

Using that as a baseline for trying to identify the most likely winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle this March, I uncovered some interesting stats and figures.

Before I go on, I want to discuss a certain horse of massive potential, by the name of Dunguib. He’s brilliant, without doubt, and laughed at his rivals in winning the Cheltenham Champion Bumper last season. But he’s a best priced 6/4, and as low as evens with Victor Chandler, and that’s no price to be backing an ante-post selection, especially considering that the Irish winners are not usually the best fancied in the betting.

Let’s take a look at some data:

So, what can we see?

Well, firstly, the average win odds are just over 12/1. Lots of short priced horses have been seen off in recent seasons, including Cousin Vinny last season (at odds of 9/4 favourite).

Even if we take out the 40/1 shot Ebaziyan, and the 7/4 winner Like-A-Butterfly, average win odds are still a shade above 9.5/1. So taking somewhere between evens and 6/4 does not look a prudent strategy, when we can back something else each way and win more for finding a place.

Next, we note that only Like-A-Butterfly actually won a Grade 1 hurdle prior to the end of December in their Supreme Novices Hurdle-winning season. Interestingly (perhaps), two winners had recorded a runner-up finish.

Five of the seven Irish winners in the last decade were six years old. Again, Like-A-Butterfly bucked the trend when triumphing as a venerable eight year old. She is joined on the non-6yo list be the 2008 winner, Captain Cee Bee. But clearly six is the prime age. (The two UK-trained winners were both 5yo’s).

All nine winners in the last decade had previously won in a field of 14 or more, and it’s clear that experience of the hustle and bustle of a big field is imperative. Moreover, two thirds of them (6 of 9) had won in a field of 18 or more.

There have been six NH bred horses taste victory in the Supreme, against just three Flat-bred. Each of the three ex-Flat horses was high class, with the lowest rated having a most recent rating of 82 (Ebaziyan again).

One extremely noteworthy point is the performance of Champion Bumper runners. The Cheltenham Champion Bumper – the last race on the Festival card – was first run in 1992, and was won by Montelado. The following March, 1993, Montelado won the opening race, the Supreme Novices, making him the only horse to have ever won back-to-back Cheltenham races!

That’s an aside of course, and the point I want to make is that – apart from Montelado seventeen years ago – no Festival Bumper winner has won the Supreme.

Furthermore, only Back In Front in 2003 won the Supreme having even RUN in the Festival Bumper! This doesn’t bode at all well for Dunguib, Some Present and Rite Of Passage (first three home respectively in the Bumper last season). It also counts against 5th placed Morning Supreme, and 9th finisher, Pepe Simo. Cousin Vinny, last season’s 9/4 favourite, was the latest Bumper winner to try and fail to add the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following season.

Of the three key Grade 1 novice hurdles run so far in Ireland, the 1-2 finishers were thus:

OK, so that the stat attack. Now lets apply it to the main contenders this season, and see what emerges…

Taking them line by line, Dunguib is – as we’ve mentioned – a clear form pick. But he’s older than most, ran in (and won) the Champion Bumper, and also won a Grade 1 novice. I’m obviously not saying he can’t win; I’m not even saying he won’t win. Rather, I’m saying the stats point more clearly elsewhere, and so does the value (each way, at least).

Menorah is a UK-trained horse, and is excluded on that basis. So too are General Miller, Bellvano, Quantitativeeasing, Pepe Simo, Oscar Whisky, Washington Irving, Finians Rainbow, Salden Licht, Ghizao and Manyriverstocross. Phew! Again, I’m not saying one of these won’t win the race. Instead, I’m pointing out that generally there are this many UK-trained horses in the top end of the betting, and yet the winner comes from Ireland. For that reason, I’m scratching these runners.

This brings us to Rite Of Passage, a high class Flat runner, who also ran 3rd in the Bumper last season, and who – at the time of writing – has yet to jump a twig in public! He bolted up by eight lengths in a competitive flat race when last seen, and has almost certainly improved since last March. Moreover, Ebaziyan didn’t run until 21st January, so it’ll be very interesting to note when Rite Of Passage debuts over hurdles. That said, the other eight winners had experience in the book at this stage, and his appearance in the Cheltenham Bumper is also off-putting, so I’m still looking for my trends-based winner.

Next up in the betting lists is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Loosen My Load. Henry also has the Arkle favourite, Sizing Europe, and I give Loosen My Load a sound chance. He’s beaten every horse bar one that he’s raced against, and won in fields of 13, 17 and 18. He’s a 6yo with a Grade 2 win in the bag (at Cheltenham, no less), and looks overpriced to me, at around 25/1.

We then come to Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner, Hollo Ladies, who saw off Saludos to record that victory. I like the look of both of these horses, as unexposed types capable of improvement. However, Hollo is a 5yo, and may just fail to confirm placing with Saludos, who was only beaten a neck and was finishing like a rocket. The faster pace which is certain in the Supreme Novices Hurdle will play to his strengths, and 33/1 looks a standout price.

So there you have it. On form, it’s difficult to look beyond Dunguib. But that’s been the case numerous times in recent seasons, when the formbook has been re-written come the final Cheltenham hill in March. With tickets at 25/1 and 33/1, we’ll at least have some each way vouchers to cling on to, even if Dunguib does prove to be everything he’s looked to be thus far.

Most Likely Winner: Dunguib (6/4, no bet)

Best Each Way (nap): Loosen My Load (25/1, vcbet, Stan James, Coral, William Hill)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Saludos (33/1, Boylesports)

Who do you like best in the Supreme Novices Hurdle? Leave a comment below, and let us know…