Dunguib won last year's Red Mills Trial Hurdle.

Hello everyone and welcome to your weekly racing preview from Malcolm Boyle. Mal’s got an excellent track record at finding winners via stats and trends and he shares his thoughts with us every week.
Today, we’ve got his take on the upcoming meetings from Fairyhouse, Clonmel, Dundalk, Gowran Park and finally, Sunday’s card at Navan. There’s some good quality races lined up, particularly on Saturday & Sunday, where both meetings have a couple of Grade 2 events planned.
Interestingly, Cheltenham-bound Mikael D’haguenet still held entries for both days. I suspect he’s more likely to appear on Saturday at Gowran Park, though, for the Red Mills Trial Hurdle, won last year by Dunguib.

WEDNESDAY 15/02: 

Fairyhouse:

General stats: Leading trainers with potential runners: W. Mullins: 69 (27% strike rate), D.T. Hughes: 31 (13%), A.J. Martin: 20 (14%)

2.05: Seven-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 3-2 via five renewals to date.

3.05: Favourites come into the contest on a four-timer, the last three winners also having carried weights of 11-3 or more.

THURSDAY 16/02: 

Clonmel:

General stats: Leading trainers with potential runners: W. Mullins: 29 (27%) and Robert Tyner: 10 (19%)

Maiden hurdle event scheduled for 2.05: Six-year-olds have secured four of the six available toteplacepot positions to date, stats which include both winners.

Two and a half mile maiden hurdle contest scheduled for 3.05: Six-year-olds (carrying 11-4 or more) have won the last three renewals.

Two and a half mile handicap chase scheduled for 4.10: Four renewals have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded during which time, seven-year-olds have won three contests.

FRIDAY 17/02: 

Dundalk:

General stats: Leading trainers with potential runners: G.M. Lyons: 72 (14%), M. Halford: 60 (11%), E. Lynam: 50 (13%)

SATURDAY 18/02: 

Gowran Park:

General stats: Leading trainers with potential runners: W. Mullins: 35 (25%), N. Meade: 13 (13%)–E. O’Grady: 13 (18%)

Beginners’ Chase event scheduled for 1.35: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last seven renewals.

Grade 2 ‘Red Mills’ event scheduled for 3.15: Six of the last seven winners carried weights of 11-6 or more whilst five of the last eight contests have been won by favourites.

Two mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 3.50: The biggest priced winner during the last decade won at 7/1 during which time, five market leaders prevailed.

Two and a half mile handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.25: The last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of eleven stones. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests, whilst only one favourite has obliged during the last decade.

SUNDAY 19/02: 

Navan:

General stats: Leading trainers with potential runners: W. Mullins: 41 (28%), N. Meade: 37 (17%), D.T. Hughes : 18 (10%)

Two mile maiden hurdle scheduled for 1.50: Six-year-olds lead the seven-year-olds 5-4 during the last decade.  Five clear market leaders have prevailed during the study period alongside one joint favourite.

Grade 2 ‘Boyne Hurdle’ scheduled for 2.20: Seven favourites have won during the last decade.  The biggest priced winner was recorded at 7/1.

Flyingbolt Novice Chase scheduled for 4.00: Seven-year-olds have won six of the last seven contests.  Only on e favourites has scored during the decade.

Ten Up Novice Chase scheduled for 4.30: Eight favourites of one description or another have won via the last ten contests during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 6/1.  Willie Mullins has saddled three of the last six winners and his only option at the five day stage was beaten favourite Bishopsfurze.

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The biggest four days racing, betting and drinking, either side of the Irish Sea (with the possible exception of the drinking at Punchestown!) sees championship races galore, from the bumper babies to the champion chasers, and everything in between.

I’ve been through the declarations, and found five Irish horses I expect to be there or thereabouts when the action starts next week. Some will be more obvious than others, and all will have a decent chance.

So, without further procrastinations, here is my quality quintet with which to go to war…

Dunguib (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle)

OK, OK, I know it’s a most uninspiring start. But wait, hear me out. This horse represents the hopes and dreams of so many Irishmen and women. (And not just Irish, I can tell you!) He laughed at the oppo in the Bumper last season, and bids to be the first horse since Montelado in 1993 to win the back-to-back races of Champion Bumper and Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The way he won last time out marked him down as a supreme novice hurdler, and I expect him to win – possibly rout – the first race and get those who wade in with large stakes to win smaller multiples off to the proverbial Festival Flyer.

He might not be a ‘dark horse’, but he’s certainly a hell of a horse. And who doesn’t want to be cheering him up the hill?!

Garde Champetre (Cross Country Chase)

Another obvious pick, as Enda Bolger’s top bush-hopper is on the hat-trick, having secured the last two renewals of this race.

It might be tougher this time around, with both stablemate L’Ami and up-and-comer Sizing Australia, threatening Garde’s monopoly.

These races are usually run pretty slowly, and Enda’s seem to have a bit to spare for the sprint finish at the end. To wit, Bolger had the first three home last year.

According to the weights, L’Ami now has the beating of Garde Champetre, but don’t believe the formbook. Weight is hardly material in this event, and I expect Nina Carberry to complete the triple on Garde Champetre, and a four-timer in all (having won on Heads Onthe Ground in 2007).

Bishopsfurze (Champion Bumper)

Willie Mullins has won more than a third of the seventeen flat races ever run at the Festival (six to be precise), and Bishopsfurze looks the pick of his entry.

The way he picked up and ran away from reasonable opposition on his only start to date, in ground he was alleged to have hated, was impressive.

The Bishop has been awarded the accolade of a Timeform ‘large P’, which implies “capable of much better form”. And he’ll need to be too, because there’s plenty of good horses in here with more form on the board.

Perhaps his toughest opponents will be Al Ferof, who was trained in Ireland for his first two starts, before being bought and sent to Paul Nicholls; and, Shot From The Hip, Eddie O’Grady’s exciting prospect, who is two for two so far.

But dear old Willie knows the time of day in this race (hours, minutes, seconds, tenths of a second), and he’s sure to give us a run at a decent price (currently 14/1).

Smoking Aces (Pertemps Final)

I am actually gutted that this one was taken out of the Coral Cup, because I’d had a very nice wager at 25/1. But shrewd trainer Tom Taaffe obviously felt that the Pertemps Final was a more winnable race.

Smoking Aces has improved each time he’s been stepped up in trip; has a gorgeous weight just above ten stone (as I write); and possesses bombproof form.

Alfie Sherrin will be a tough nut to crack, but there isn’t a horse in the race who will appreciate the three miles of this race more than the ‘Aces.

He’s been nibbled today, and I expect this one to go off second favourite, and possibly even challenge for favouritism. All the 14′s has gone, and all the 12′s will be gone soon!

Hampshire Express (Martin Pipe Conditional’s Handicap Hurdle)

A tough race to wager in, to be sure, but nevertheless I like the look of Hampshire Express. The second Mullins’ munition to merit a mention, the Express showed little or nothing prior to his last start where, inexplicably (on form at least), he won in a canter as the 4/1 favourite.

The turn of foot he showed that day to put the race to bed was memorable, and it’s that kind of gear change we’re looking for in a race of this nature, where we need the horse to do as much of the donkey work (pardon the pun) as possible.

That is, if you have a horse that takes a Tony McCoy Wichita Lineman ride to win, you couldn’t be confident in a race like this. If you have a horse that, when asked to pick up, does just that – and in spades – then you’re in with a chance.

Although I can’t be confident with this one, I’m hopeful at least, and it’ll be a good old Friday night should he oblige!

********

Whatever you’re backing next week, whether you’re headed to the track, or watching in the pub, or on your telly, or even if you’re listening on the radio. Heck, even if you’re just checking the results in the paper the next morning, I sincerely wish you the best of luck.

Let’s hope the winners pay for the losers!

Matt

p.s. What do you fancy? Feel free to leave a comment in the box below with your best bet of the week.

Joncol, Paul Nolan`s stable star, did what he has been threatening to do for a while and scooped a big prize when getting the better of Cooldine in a ding-dong battle to the line in Sunday`s Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown.Adopting different tactics to his Lexus Chase run, Joncol (9/4F) was settled behind the pace-setting Cooldine and when Aiden Cawley pressed the button he produced a super leap at the last and the giant sized 7 year old stuck his neck out gamely in the shadows of the post to edge past the brave Cooldine  who returned to form in no uncertain terms despite his trainers pre-race reservations. Both the winner and the runner-up were heavily supported in the market. The disappointment of the race was the Nicky Richards trained Money Trix who never got in to the race under Davy Russell. On this evidence the winner has plenty of top class prizes on his horizon and Cooldine will surely acquit himself well in the Blue Riband come March.

On a star-studded Grade One feast of racing at the packed Foxrock venue some of the other highlights included -:

FEB 7th

LEOPARDSTOWN

• The first of the days 4 Grade Ones was the opening Spring Juvenile Hurdle and it went the way of the Charles Byrnes trained and Davy Russell ridden Pittoni(4/6F) who put up a polished performance in defeating Cross Appeal by Two and a half lengths. This smart ex-flat racer must have a big shout in the Triumph Hurdle provided the going is not on the fast side.

• Without a shadow of a doubt the one horse that the majority of punters who flocked to Leopardstown on Sunday wanted to see in action most of all was the mighty Dunguib (3/10F) and he did not let his legion of admirers down as he easily landed the odds in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Grade One). Despite some sloppy jumps at times the Barry O` Connell ridden superstar simply toyed with the opposition and strolled to victory over Fionnegas who is no back number himself. Philip Fentons machine is now odds-on for the Supreme Novices at the Festival and will be the banker in many Ante- Post doubles and trebles. Hopefully he will jump a bit slicker next time and raise the roof in Prestbury Park

• The remaining Grade One on the card was the Dr PJ Moriarty Novice Chase which saw a high class field go to post. There was a massive plunge on Willie Mullins` Cousin Vinny but he disappointed once again behind his stable- mate Citizen Vic (12/1) who caused a bit of an upset when staying on gamely under Paul Townend to defeat the well touted pair of Weapons Amnesty and Roberto Goldback.Doubtless this race will throw up many winners in the months ahead.

• There was a major upset in the Hunters Chase on the card when the hot-pot Agus A Vic (4/6F) put up a very tame display when finishing a poor third behind Kilty Storm (8/1) who was ridden by Mr. P.L Queally for trainer R.J McGrath. It is unlikely that this race will have much bearing on the Christies Foxhunters Chase.

It was an informative week elsewhere in the Emerald Isle and for Irish horses across the pond and some other highlights included -

The star attraction at Naas on Saturday was Arkle favourite Captain Cee Bee and he put in a very competent display when running out a facile winner of the Opera Hat Novice Chase despite another final flight scare. Jockey, MP Walsh had little difficulty in guiding Eddie Harty`s charge to a 13 Length victory over Fosters Cross and cement his position at the head of the Arkle betting market though whether his current price represents value is debatable.

At Clonmel on Thursday Whinstone Boy followed up his Thyestes victory when winning the Kilcash Chase for Sean Flanagan and JJ Mangan at odds of 3/1.

Carlito Brigante justified his trainer Gordon Elliott’s decision to head to Musselburgh on Sunday for the Scottish Triumph Hurdle when running out a facile 6 Length winner under Jason Maguire. It was a performance that saw his Triumph Hurdle odds take a tumble and he looks the main Irish hope and given a sound surface he goes to the Festival with a big shout.

At Doncaster on Saturday the Jessica Harrington trained Zarinava ran out a gutsy winner of the Mares Grade Two Hurdle for Paul Moloney.

Trainers in form;

C.Byrnes, Colm Murphy, Mrs J.Harrington, Paul Nolan, P.Fenton.

.

Happy Punting

JOE Q

Festival trials are pretty much coming to an end now, and aside from the novices many of the Irish contenders have now had their final preparations. The 26 races staged between the 16^th and 20^th March aren’t traditionally races for favourites – a huge 77% of them have been beaten since 2002. In addition, the stats don’t bode well for those priced 4/1 or less…

Of the 99 horses to be sent off at an SP of 4/1 or shorter since 2006, a huge 76 of them have been beaten. These included Binocular, L’Ami, Voy Por Ustedes and Kasbah Bliss last year – all of which were considered to be so-called “bankers”. In this article we’re going to take a look at some of the hottest betting prospects with just under five weeks to go…

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – Dunguib

If there’s anything this horse isn’t at this stage it’s a Champion Hurdler. He isn’t the most fluent jumper of fences, but what he lacks in the jumping department he more than makes up for with this skill and ability to travel supremely well through a race. He’s already proven at Cheltenham and remains unbeaten over hurdles after a superb victory in the Deloitte today. He’s absolutely no price at a best price of evens, but in all honesty I can’t see him being beaten at all…

30 of the last 35 winners of this race were aged five or six, whereas Dunguib is seven. I don’t see it as a negative as he has more experience and maturity than some of his opponents. The fact that jockeys are more eager to win races at the Festival normally results in a frantic gallop and tendency to “go for home” much earlier than usual. This means Dunguib’s proven ability to cope with the undulations and stay 2m2f in heavy ground should stand him in good stead.

RSA Chase – Punchestowns

Punchestowns is a general 3/1 shot for the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase after his thoroughly impressive victory in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase this weekend. We don’t know much about him at this stage, but he was a high-class hurdler and has jumped well on the whole in two appearances to date.

Nicky Henderson has expressed his concerns about getting a run into the horse, as he is a large individual and really needs a lot of work. He missed a fence down the back straight at Sandown last time out, but recovered well to win going away at the finish after being fifteen lengths down with three to jump. He showed tremendous battling qualities and tenacity to win the way he did, and certainly looks like he’d appreciate the step back up to three miles plus.

His main market rivals at this stage are stablemate Long Run and Nick Williams-trained Diamond Harry. Long Run looked a potential superstar when landing the Feltham at Kempton in December. It was a fast pace that day which suited this horse, and subsequent winner Tazbar was the only one who could race with him upon leaving the back straight.

Nevertheless, he proved no match for Long Run who cruised away from the second last in the hands of Sam Waley-Cohen for an easy win. The doubt with him is whether he’ll be able to get into a rhythm in order to jump well over three miles round Cheltenham, and there are also question marks about him staying the trip. His trainer has expressed his concerns, and it might prove best to either go for the Arkle or wait for Aintree.

Pandorama is the main Irish contender, and looks set to run a big race if he takes to the undulations of the course. He’s unbeaten in three over fences having already won the Drinmore and Knight Frank novice chases. Whether he’ll stay a very testing 3m1f remains to be seen, and with that said probably has a lot to do to compete with the English-trained runners.

At this stage Punchestowns doesn’t necessarily look a strong favourite. Diamond Harry looked a potential superstar when hammering Knockara Beau at Haydock last time out and Weird Al is another who will probably appreciate the longer trip and both have previous course form to their name. In order to be considered a serious bet though, we’d have to see Diamond Harry run again.

Ryanair Chase – Poquelin

This year’s renewal of the Ryanair Chase looks wide-open and you’d have to say Poquelin is there to be shot at. He’s yet to compete in a top-class chase, and was beaten comfortably by Tranquil Sea on his second start this season. The race he won subsequently didn’t look quite as competitive, and albeit the Nicholls horse does look to be improving Tranquil Sea does look a decent price to frank the form off level weights.

Barbers Shop looks a cut below the absolute top-level when competing at three miles, and this testing 2m5f trip has twice seen him finish a close second. He has to be a serious contender with Imperial Commander more likely to go for the Gold Cup, and shouldn’t be discounted. Voy Por Ustedes looks as though his best days are long gone, but this race could be set up for either Joncol or Schindlers Hunt.

2m5f round here is more like three miles these days, and that looks as though it’ll suit Joncol ideally. Last seen when winning the Hennessy Gold Cup earlier this afternoon, he displayed some real battling qualities to prevail from Cooldine and looks likely to reverse the form with Tranquil Sea for a one length beating now he’s 10lbs better off. Chapoturgeon is another “live” contender and Schindlers Hunt would have to improve but stands a decent chance on his 3^rd place finish in this race last season.

Conclusion

The Cheltenham Festival is an ideal race for layers, and regularly sees a number of horses considered to be “bankers” get beaten decisively. With Irish-trainer runners winning seven of the last nine renewals of the opener, Dunguib looks the most likely short-priced winner at this stage although his price isn’t very attractive.

A better strategy might be to simply lay all runners priced 4/1 or less, which would have proved more than profitable for the past four years. These are the biggest races of the National Hunt season, and it’s important to remember that short prices are not synonymous with certainties.

Connor Gallagher is a professional horse racing bettor and form analyst. If you’d like to learn how to bet methodically and discover how to win consistently, then I highly recommend you read the articles on his blog and sign-up for his weekly tips and advice bulletin by going to: http://www.horseracingbulletin.com/

If there is one horse to test Dunguib on Sunday and put his sometimes sketchy jumping under pressure it is likely to be Oliver McKiernans, Whodoyouthink, who was a hugely impressive winner of a maiden hurdle over the course at Christmas. With the early departure of Sundays rival Mr Cracker, he may not have had much to beat,but the way he went about his business really impressed. Making most,he had his field in trouble a long way from home and finished on the bridle. If he is allowed a similar easy lead here then he could make a bold bid from the off.

The presence of Saludos tempers confidence on advising an eachway bet on Whodoyouthink. Jessica Harringtons charge was disappointing last weekend but went close to making all in a grade one at Christmas and if he attempts the same again then himself and McKiernans inmate could cut each others throats setting it up for a late closer like Dunguib. Also I believe that Some Present is better than he showed last time and while Dunguib should again have his measure he is capable of making the frame thus only leaving the one place for those seeking eachway returns.

Summary: Dunguib is impossible to oppose and should take this comfortably. Whodoyouthink is the dark horse in the lineup and if he is not taken on early or settles in behind Saludos then he can make the frame at an eachway price.

After what seemed like an eternity, racing resumed in Ireland on Sunday last, after the cold snap, with Fairyhouse and Thurles hosting interesting cards. Thurles also raced on Monday.  Odds on punters got their fingers well and truly burned with no less than SIX odds-on shots getting turned over during the course of these three Meetings.

JAN 17^th

FAIRYHOUSE

• It was very much a case of déjà vu as Jockey, Ruby Walsh and Trainer, Willie Mullins each notched up a treble on the day.

They teamed up for victories with Arvika Legeonniere (Evens Fav) in the Maiden    Hurdle and Scotsirish (7/4) in the featured Norman Grove Chase. The latter defied an alarming late drift in the Market to land the spoils from stablemate Snowy Morning without too much difficulty in the end. Rare Bob, the well backed second favourite put in a most disappointing effort and ran as if something was amiss. Ruby went on to complete his treble when guiding the gambled-on Tony Martin trained Saddlers Storm (4/5 Fav) to victory in the Handicap Chase. The Mullins treble came courtesy of Up Ou That (6/4) in the concluding Bumper in what was visually the most impressive performance of the day. This son of Alderbrook , who was following up a Point To Point victory, certainly looks to have a bright future and went in to many notebooks after romping to a 16 Length win from the well-touted Romanesco.

• The Mullins / Walsh combination did however endure a costly reverse when Cousin Vinny, sent off at 4/7, put in a very mediocre round of jumping  when finishing only third behind An Cathaoir Mor in the Beginners Chase. On this evidence Vinny will not be making the trip to Cheltenham for any of the big Novice events come March.

THURLES

• On a day of reversals for Favourites only one obliged in the shape of Kylebeg Krystle who followed up his recent good run behind Dolly Hall in Cork by romping to a facile five and a half length success for DG Hogan in the Handicap Hurdle. Available at 4/1 in the morning he was well supported in to 2/1 and looks ripe to follow up before being re-assessed by The Handicapper Noel O` Brien.

• The Bookmakers fun day out climaxed when the Willie Mullins trained hotpot Rhyll Accord (4/7) got overturned when finishing a poor third behind 16/1 outsider Elysian Rock, trained by Mouse Morris in the Novice Hurdle.

• There was a long-priced double on the card for Templemore handler Willie Harney thanks to the victories of Prairie Call (11/2) and Kakagh (25/1).

JAN 18^TH

THURLES

• The Going was again Heavy for both horses and punters alike in Thurles on Monday. On this occasion not a solitary jolly obliged on the day. The week-end trend of odds-on shots getting turned over continued unabated in both Beginners Chases on the card as Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh had to endure 2 more costly failures. Firstly,  Kempes (1/3) was readily accounted for by Paul Nolans See U Bob (4/1) ridden by Alan Cawley and then The Midnight Club (9/10) finished a well-beaten third behind the Davy Russell ridden and Thomas O Leary trained Jagoes Mill (11/4).

• The feature race was The Phil Sweeney Memorial Chase (Grade 3) and this went the way of the ever-dependable Davy Russell who guided Tally Em Up (8/1) to victory over the hot favourite Moskova. Philip Rothwell saddled the winner.

Meanwhile, all roads lead to Gowran Park on Thursday for the running of the prestigious Thyestes Chase, the big race of the year at the picturesque Kilkenny track. Perhaps Beroni can give the Willie Mullins stable a fillip after a few reversals over the past few days.

Dunguib’s entry for The Champion Hurdle has got plenty of tongues wagging but it will be surprising if the original plan to stick to the Supreme Novices’ is not adhered to come March.

Solwhit continues his preparation for the Cotswolds in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown next Sunday and is confidently expected to continue his rich vein of form.

Trainers in form;

Willie Mullins ,Willie Harney, Philip Rothwell, Paul Nolan.

Happy Punting

JOE Q

The curtain raiser on Tuesday is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, and this has been an Irish banker in recent seasons. In fact, in the last decade, excluding 2001 when foot and mouth forced the cancellation of the Cheltenham Festival, no fewer than seven of the nine winners have been trained from Ireland.

Using that as a baseline for trying to identify the most likely winner of the Supreme Novices Hurdle this March, I uncovered some interesting stats and figures.

Before I go on, I want to discuss a certain horse of massive potential, by the name of Dunguib. He’s brilliant, without doubt, and laughed at his rivals in winning the Cheltenham Champion Bumper last season. But he’s a best priced 6/4, and as low as evens with Victor Chandler, and that’s no price to be backing an ante-post selection, especially considering that the Irish winners are not usually the best fancied in the betting.

Let’s take a look at some data:

So, what can we see?

Well, firstly, the average win odds are just over 12/1. Lots of short priced horses have been seen off in recent seasons, including Cousin Vinny last season (at odds of 9/4 favourite).

Even if we take out the 40/1 shot Ebaziyan, and the 7/4 winner Like-A-Butterfly, average win odds are still a shade above 9.5/1. So taking somewhere between evens and 6/4 does not look a prudent strategy, when we can back something else each way and win more for finding a place.

Next, we note that only Like-A-Butterfly actually won a Grade 1 hurdle prior to the end of December in their Supreme Novices Hurdle-winning season. Interestingly (perhaps), two winners had recorded a runner-up finish.

Five of the seven Irish winners in the last decade were six years old. Again, Like-A-Butterfly bucked the trend when triumphing as a venerable eight year old. She is joined on the non-6yo list be the 2008 winner, Captain Cee Bee. But clearly six is the prime age. (The two UK-trained winners were both 5yo’s).

All nine winners in the last decade had previously won in a field of 14 or more, and it’s clear that experience of the hustle and bustle of a big field is imperative. Moreover, two thirds of them (6 of 9) had won in a field of 18 or more.

There have been six NH bred horses taste victory in the Supreme, against just three Flat-bred. Each of the three ex-Flat horses was high class, with the lowest rated having a most recent rating of 82 (Ebaziyan again).

One extremely noteworthy point is the performance of Champion Bumper runners. The Cheltenham Champion Bumper – the last race on the Festival card – was first run in 1992, and was won by Montelado. The following March, 1993, Montelado won the opening race, the Supreme Novices, making him the only horse to have ever won back-to-back Cheltenham races!

That’s an aside of course, and the point I want to make is that – apart from Montelado seventeen years ago – no Festival Bumper winner has won the Supreme.

Furthermore, only Back In Front in 2003 won the Supreme having even RUN in the Festival Bumper! This doesn’t bode at all well for Dunguib, Some Present and Rite Of Passage (first three home respectively in the Bumper last season). It also counts against 5th placed Morning Supreme, and 9th finisher, Pepe Simo. Cousin Vinny, last season’s 9/4 favourite, was the latest Bumper winner to try and fail to add the Supreme Novices Hurdle the following season.

Of the three key Grade 1 novice hurdles run so far in Ireland, the 1-2 finishers were thus:

OK, so that the stat attack. Now lets apply it to the main contenders this season, and see what emerges…

Taking them line by line, Dunguib is – as we’ve mentioned – a clear form pick. But he’s older than most, ran in (and won) the Champion Bumper, and also won a Grade 1 novice. I’m obviously not saying he can’t win; I’m not even saying he won’t win. Rather, I’m saying the stats point more clearly elsewhere, and so does the value (each way, at least).

Menorah is a UK-trained horse, and is excluded on that basis. So too are General Miller, Bellvano, Quantitativeeasing, Pepe Simo, Oscar Whisky, Washington Irving, Finians Rainbow, Salden Licht, Ghizao and Manyriverstocross. Phew! Again, I’m not saying one of these won’t win the race. Instead, I’m pointing out that generally there are this many UK-trained horses in the top end of the betting, and yet the winner comes from Ireland. For that reason, I’m scratching these runners.

This brings us to Rite Of Passage, a high class Flat runner, who also ran 3rd in the Bumper last season, and who – at the time of writing – has yet to jump a twig in public! He bolted up by eight lengths in a competitive flat race when last seen, and has almost certainly improved since last March. Moreover, Ebaziyan didn’t run until 21st January, so it’ll be very interesting to note when Rite Of Passage debuts over hurdles. That said, the other eight winners had experience in the book at this stage, and his appearance in the Cheltenham Bumper is also off-putting, so I’m still looking for my trends-based winner.

Next up in the betting lists is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Loosen My Load. Henry also has the Arkle favourite, Sizing Europe, and I give Loosen My Load a sound chance. He’s beaten every horse bar one that he’s raced against, and won in fields of 13, 17 and 18. He’s a 6yo with a Grade 2 win in the bag (at Cheltenham, no less), and looks overpriced to me, at around 25/1.

We then come to Future Champions Novice Hurdle winner, Hollo Ladies, who saw off Saludos to record that victory. I like the look of both of these horses, as unexposed types capable of improvement. However, Hollo is a 5yo, and may just fail to confirm placing with Saludos, who was only beaten a neck and was finishing like a rocket. The faster pace which is certain in the Supreme Novices Hurdle will play to his strengths, and 33/1 looks a standout price.

So there you have it. On form, it’s difficult to look beyond Dunguib. But that’s been the case numerous times in recent seasons, when the formbook has been re-written come the final Cheltenham hill in March. With tickets at 25/1 and 33/1, we’ll at least have some each way vouchers to cling on to, even if Dunguib does prove to be everything he’s looked to be thus far.

Most Likely Winner: Dunguib (6/4, no bet)

Best Each Way (nap): Loosen My Load (25/1, vcbet, Stan James, Coral, William Hill)

Best Long Shot (e/w): Saludos (33/1, Boylesports)

Who do you like best in the Supreme Novices Hurdle? Leave a comment below, and let us know…