Ten Horses To Follow – 2010 Flat Season
Now that the English Guineas are behind us (or should I say the French Guineas?!), the flat season is in full cry. So, what better time to offer ten horses to follow this season.
These are not my ten. Rather, they’re from a very sharp chap called Richard Stoddart, who runs a long odds betting service over at Bet Catalyst. (Details at the end of this piece)
So, without further ado, here we go:
1) Strawberrydaiquiri (Sir M.Stoute) 4yo
This 4yo filly is the horse I most want to see run this season. Unraced as a 2yo, she made her debut at Windsor last season where she finished second, before going on to win her next four starts, all in very good style. She then finished fourth in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes and ran far better than her finishing position suggested. On that occasion she didn’t have the best of runs and got a little tapped for toe before staying on really well under fairly tenderly handling from Ryan Moore in the closing stages. I’m more than positive she’ll be upped to 1m2f for this season and should develop into a really smart Group 1 performer. Lightly-raced and open to huge amounts of improvement, she has the scope to have thrived a ton during the winter. She should prove unbeatable against her own sex over the 1m2f trip and races like the Nassua Stakes look tailormade for her. If she really has improved she could well take on the colts in the likes of the Prince of Wales Stakes and International Stakes at York. Much will depend on her comeback run which could well be the Brigadier Gerrard Stakes, a race the stable has used to launch the 4yo careers of some of their stars, at Sandown. If she wins that well (if she runs) she could be set for stellar season.
[Footnote: Strawberrydaiquiri won over the weekend at Newmarket]
2) Holberg (M.Johnston)
With the staying division looking like it could do with some fresh blood Holberg should be a horse who pays his way this season. He was a well backed and striking winner of the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and has been unraced due a small injury since. The way he won that day suggested to me that he could hold his own in much higher company and that he had the scope and size to mature into a top-class stayer. The form of that race has worked out well and the third placed horse that day, Mastery, went on to tin the St.Leger. But the fact that Holberg was well backed that day and that he won so well suggests the stable know that this horse could well be the real deal and it’ll be interesting how they chart his program this season. The good news is that being by Halling, a horse who just got better and better with age, you’d have to think there’d be no end to his improvement this year. Proven at Royal Ascot he may well have a big part to play in the Gold Cup.
3) Black Spirit (C.Cox) 3yo
This colt is one which I think could prove a decent tool and run some big races at decent prices. He ran three time last season and one should ignore his last run which was too good to be true. On his first run he won at Ascot and the second horse has upheld the form since. It is his second run which I think holds the key to how good he can be. It is said only good horses can make up ground quickly and Black Spirit certainly did that at Sandown when finishing fourth behind Shakesperean. That day he was settled in last place and when they turned for home he had it all to do. But three out he must have started a run in which he made up around 12L in 1 1/2f and at one point I swear he hit the front only to run green under pressure and fade into fourth. That surge he made had class written all over it and with him underperforming on his last run he looks incerdibly well-handicapped on just a mark of 99. That mark leaves open the option of trying a couple of handicaps before being upped in class. On breeding anything from 1m to 1m2f should be well within his compass and he doesn’t seem ground depenedent.
4) Ceilidh House (R.Beckett) 3yo
This filly could be anything. She ran just the once last season when winning at Nottingham. It is a race in which she was slowly away and trapped wide all the way through, two factors which should have put paid to any chance she had. But, this filly made ground rapidly down the outside in the manner of a very good filly and ran on well under tender handling to win going away by 4L. An Oaks and Irish Oaks entry she’s currently priced up around the 25-1 mark for the former and being from the same connections as Look Here, she should pay her way this season. 1m2f to 1m4f should be ideal and the Lingfield Oaks Trial could well be the starting point before taking in the two Oaks. Had she been trained by Stoute, Cecil, Suroor or O’Brien she’d be at least half the price she currently trades at.
5) Showcasing (J.Gosden) 3yo
This fella should finish the season as Champion Sprinter. A very impressive winner of the Gimcrack before going on to finish third beaten 1L in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes (when the stable was bang out of form). The way he travelled and then quickened in the Gimcrack suggests the faster he goes the better he’ll be and it is interesting that connections have quite clearly said he’ll be having a sprint campaign. Being by a Champion Sprinter in Oasis Dream which was also trained by Gosden you’d have to think that he’s already licking his lips with excitement and probably already has his campaign fully mapped out. He holds an entry in the Duke of York Stakes at York’s Dante meeting and he should win that enroute to the Goledn Jubilee and July Cup and then possibly even the Breeders’ Cup.
6) Psychic Ability (S.Bin Suroor) 3yo
Well backed winner of a Nottingham maiden on his second and last run of last season (average run on debut). Won that race by 4L giving the impression that he had huge scope and growing to do over the winter. The second has come out and won in the past week, but Psychic Ability has been given a mark of just 85 and we reckon that he could be worth a mark of at least 95. Looks a typical decent handicapper the stable excels with. 1m2f should be right up his street and worth keeping an eye out at the Guineas meeting, before going on to better things.
7) Bondage (J.Fanshawe) 3yo
Stable has started the season far better than it finished last season. Qualified for handicaps and on second run last season gave a glimpse that he has a couple of handicaps in him. Rated just 66 he should be effective from 6f-7f. (Made seasonal debut last week over 1m2f and ran like a horse who needs a step down in trip. Still ran with a horse a with promise though)
Free Grain (J.Dunlop) 3yo
This filly caught our eye when finishing 6th on debut at Salisbury. She finished well that day under tender handling and was well backed for her next run in a Newmarket maiden where she finished last of 20 with something clearly amiss. Whatever mark she starts from we are sure she can win a race or two this season and that she has the potential to be much better than a handicapper. (Has already run this season and didn’t fare too well, but the run does qualify her for a handicap mark and that will be her game)
9) Pin Cushion (B. Meehan) 3yo
Would have won her last race of the season had she not fell out of the stalls and in our opinion she’s a winner without a penalty. Rated just 77, we’d be surprised if she didn’t manage to obtain a mark in the 90s. By Pivotal, a stiff 6f should be right up her street and there are plenty of decent early season handicaps for her to aim at.
10) Yankee Bright (J.Given) 3yo
Stable has started the season well (3 winners from 7 runners) and this filly caught the eye staying on well over 1m at Newcastle following a slow start. She then went on to run in a 10f Listed event at Newmarket where she was outclassed. The fact connections went for that race suggests they think the horse has some talent so the fact she starts the season off a mark of just 67 makes her a good betting proposition when she lines up in a handicap.
So there you have it. Ten horses, one winner from four runners so far, and much to look forward to in Group races and handicaps this season.
You can get full access to Richard’s excellent long odds service, including a special offer (for Geegeez.co.uk and Horse-racing.ie subscribers) here:
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