Tipsters To Avoid (and Why!)
If you’ve been around the racing game for any length of time you’ll no doubt have come across a multitude of different types of tipster services. There’s the “inside info” brigade, statisticians, form specialists, backers, layers, betting exchange traders…. you name it, there are thousands of them about and they’ve all got a different angle into how you can make insane betting profits.
As you’ll probably be aware, some of these are good, some are not so good, but the purpose of this article isn’t to expose the sharks in the industry. Instead what I’m going to do is enlighten you on why the method many of them are using to bill you is costing you dearly.
The “Pay As You Go” Tipster Services
I’m sure you’ll have seen this before….
You receive a mailshot with a well-written personalised sales letter, a reply paid envelope and a colourful glossy insert with some mouth watering results for you to chew over. On the flip side there will generally be photos of a retired bloke, a young mother and some guy who looks like a real estate agent. They’ll all be telling you, in “their own words”, how they’ve achieved financial freedom from the opportunity that’s just landed on your doorstep.
After you’ve indulged yourself in “what could be” over your cornflakes, you eventually reach the order page to see how much it’s going to cost you and hey presto, it’s FREE of charge!
All you need to do is place [ £10 | £20 | £50 | insert figure here ] on each of the bets you receive from them and if they win you send them their share of the winnings. If they don’t win, you send nothing. And when they do win, you’ll have your own cash on too, so you’ll be quids in!
There isn’t anything illegal, dodgy, or unethical about what these companies are doing. They’re providing a service and being completely upfront about the terms of your agreement, but there is one fundamental flaw in how the whole thing works and this is it….
It’s almost impossible for you to win!
The reason for this evades most of the people who are taken in by it and I fully understand that if you’re new to the game it’s an easy mistake to make. Most of these mailshots have been crafted by master copywriters and they’ll no doubt have a professional feel to them, but appearances can be deceiving and just because they look good, it doesn’t mean they are.
Why You Simply Can’t Win With Tipsters Like This
If you’ve ever been taken in by this kind of tipster service before, you’re probably going to be kicking yourself when I explain how ridiculously simple the logic behind it is.
Let’s say you’re a regular punter who likes to have two or three £20 bets on a Saturday. You join one of these “pay as you go” tipster services and agree to place £20 on each of their selections on their behalf. So you’re placing £20 for them and £20 for you and it’s in their interest to find you winners, because without them they don’t make any money. Makes sense, right?
The first bet comes through and it’s a 3/1 shot. You stick your £40 bet on and the horse hacks up, winning in a canter, and returning £160 for your cash. Great start. You mail off the £60 you’re due the tipster, keep £60 in winnings for yourself and eagerly await the next tip.
It’s all good, or so you might think.
The problem here – just in case you haven’t noticed it yet – is that you staked £40 of your own cash and made a profit of £60, so rather than backing a 3/1 winner, you’ve actually only backed a 6/4 winner. Sure, the horse won and you’ve got cash in your pocket, but if you think you can win in the long-term backing 3/1 shots at 6/4 you need to think again.
Now you might be a £100 punter and you could be thinking that the £20 you’re putting on for them isn’t going to make too much of an impact on your profits. Wrong. You’re staking £120 and your winnings are £300, so instead of backing a 3/1 winner your odds have been cut to slightly over 11/4. It isn’t such a drastic difference as the previous example, but if it’s your aim to win long-term you need to be backing true 3/1 chances at higher than 3/1, not below.
The larger your stake is compared to the amount you need to put on for the tipster, the lower the differential in the odds, but I’ve yet to come across a tipster who produces a return on investment of higher than 20% on a consistent basis (and that’s VERY good!), so unless your stakes are substantially higher than I’ve mentioned here, you’ll be losing money hand over fist.
The next time you receive a glossy promotional pack from one of these “pay as you go” type tipster services, do yourself a favour and keep this article in mind. If it looks too good to be true, well you know the old saying, there’s a fair chance it probably is.
