Aug 18

Daily analysis – Saturday 18th

NEWBURY – AUGUST 18

Six year corresponding stats for Newbury:

44 races – 13 winning favourites – 42/44 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

4 winners—William Haggas (15/2, 7/1, 10/3 & 11/8*)

4 winners—Roger Varian (12/1, 9/1, 13/8* & 5/4*)

 

  • Similar six year ratios can be found for Doncaster, Newmarket, Ripon, Perth & Market Rasen following Newbury’s race by race analysis. Yesterday’s service offered a 16/1 winner for Mick Channon from just two runners on the Nottingham card, whilst a 5/1 (William Haggas) runner was highlighted at Newbury.

 By the by, with just one very ordinary Nursery event today, the service will be back on Monday. The six represented trainers in the 3.35 at Newmarket today ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 8/86 in two-year-old handicap races this season, compared to a ratio of 14/22 via the top four contributors this term.  There are no Nursery events on Sunday

 

1.50: 13 of the last 15 winners were sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include eight successful favourites of one description or another.  Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last twelve winners whereby Ryan Moore’s mount The Trader is the first name on the team sheet. It’s interesting to note that Ryan has ‘only’ ridden for Mark on 64 occasions in 18 years, whereby his lone booking for the trainer is worth noting when looking for his twelfth winner for the stable.  Albeit that the two horses are listed the other way around in the early market, Anontia De Vega was more positive than Boitron early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have obliged during the last 18 years.  11 of the 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection to minimum stakes: The Trader

 

2.25: Ten of the last eighteen favourites have won whilst four-year-olds have snared six of the last twelve renewals of this ‘Geoffrey Freer’ event, with Charlie Appleby looking to have a strong hand this time around having declared both Hamada and Walton Street. Best prices this morning inform us that we can ‘couple’ the pair at 6/4 (11/4 and 8/1 respectively) which will do for me.

Favourite factor: Thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period, statistics which include ten winners. Nine of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.
Betting option: Couple the Charlie Appleby pair.

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last twelve renewals which makes for impressive reading as only 24% (32/133) of the relevant fields were made up of junior representatives.  A quintet of junior raiders have been declared with Mystic Flight expected to lead home the other four contenders, though Zalshah could reward each way investors at around the 20/1 mark.  All that said, I’m pinning my hopes on Charles Molson, who is still available at 16/1 with Boylesports, despite Sea Fox having been withdrawn this morning.  The seven-year-old does not win as often as he should but on the pick of his best form, his each way chance is there for all to see.  It says much for the average summer weather in this country that three of the last four renewals have been contested with the word ‘soft’ featuring in the going description!

Favourite factor: Three of the last sixteen favourites have won, results which came as a welcome relief to punters as three of the previous four winners had scored at 25/1-20/1-16/1.

Each Way selection: Charles Molson

Draw factor (seven furlongs – most recent result listed first):

11-16-5 (10 ran-soft)

5-14-9-12 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-8-13 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-2-1 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-13-2 (14 ran-good)

12-1-2 (14 ran-good to firm)

14-1-10 (15 ran-good)

2-7-4 (9 ran-good to soft)

4-5-2 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-9-4 (11 ran-good to soft)

13-14-12 (14 ran-good to soft)

13-8-12 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-9-12 (15 ran-good to firm)

14-7-15-2 (16 ran-good)

4-6-3 (10-good to firm)

15-6-2 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

9-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

14-5-7-13 (18 ran-good)

6-2-7 (9 ran-good)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

       

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals, though three-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests of this Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, despite the fact that no junior runners were involved two years ago.  33/1 is an insult to the chance of Mick Channon’s raider Dan’s Dream who will be ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.  I confess to putting the three-year-old up at 28/1 earlier this morning and cannot believe that her price has grown bigger in the interim period, given that some moisture in the ground plays to her strengths.  The fact that six renewals have slipped by since the last market obliged adds some clarification, with the last two gold medallists having scored at 12/1 and 11/1.  Sir Dancealot and Gustav Klimt boast definite claims but can hardly be classed as ‘bulletproof’ by any stretch of the imagination, especially at the cramped odds on offer.

Favourite factor: Four clear marker leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years.  Ten of the twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Each way selection: Dan’s Dream

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

4-5-7 (8 ran-soft)

6-3 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-13-7 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (6 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (5 ran-good)

4-10-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

3-7-11 (9 ran-good)

6-9 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4-10 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-2-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

3-2-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

8-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

8-3-5 (9 ran-good)

7-11-6 (13 ran-good)

4-5-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

6-3-8 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-2 (7 ran-good)

4-2-9 (9 ran-good to firm)

 

4.10: Not a race I am interested in but there must be a fair chance that the 9/10 quote by Marathon about Sextant will not last long, with only Prabeni offering any resistance on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite duly obliged.

 

4.40: 12/1 always looked too big about the chance of Winged Spur this morning when I homed in on Silvester’s mount for the Mark Johnston team in the dead of night.  17/2 is the average price on offer at the time of writing and win, lose or draw, value is the name of the game in my book.  Adjutant is another win and place type that could outrun his price and whilst Hidden Depths is an obvious candidate, 5/2 makes no appeal whatsoever.

Favourite Factor: Three of the five favourites have finished in the frame via four renewals, stats which include two winners which were both returned at 9/4.

Each way selection: Winged Spur

 

5.15: These amateur rider races usually make limited appeal from my viewpoint but there is no disputing the fact that 11/4 about Outofthequestion was a fair enough price earlier this morning, given the records of Alan King and Serena Brotherton in this event. Indeed, the jockey has won six renewals during the last decade whilst Alan King is hoping to take his tally to three in the contest during the period. You might be able to obtain 9/4 now, though 2/1 will be the price before too long I’ll wager.

Favourite Factor: The last seven winners of this event have scored at a top price of 7/1, stats which include three successful market leaders.

Win selection: Outofthequestion

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Doncaster:

45 races – 7 winning favourites – 43/45 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Roger Varian (7/1, 7/1, 5/1, 9/2 & 5/2)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Newmarket:

42 races – 9 winning favourites – 33/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Richard Fahey (8/1, 5/1, 5/2**, 5/2** & 2/1*)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Ripon:

42 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

4 winners—Richard Fahey (25/1, 12/1, 9/2, 9/2*, 4/1*, 3/1 & 1/20*)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Perth:

42 races – 12 winning favourites – 40/42 winners scored at a top price of 14/1:

Leading trainers:

6 winners—Lucinda Russell (7/1, 7/1, 4/1, 7/2, 5/2 & 11/8)

 

Six year corresponding stats for Market Rasen:

37 races – 13 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 9/1:

Leading trainers:

3 winners—Brian Ellison (8/1, 9/4* & 13/8*)

 

 

Aug 18

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 18th

Friday’s school report:

With seven winners at 33/1 (returned at 14/1) – 12/1 (4/1) – 10/1 (8/1 albet via a dead heat) – 13/2 (10/3) – 13/2 (4/1) – 9/2 (6/1) & 11/4 (2/1) – We’ve experiences worse days!

Throw in four seconds (all backed off the boards) alongside WINNERS at 16/1 & 5/1 via highlighted trainers and yes, you could say I was pleased with the day’s work!

That said, you are only ever as good as your latest winners so the merry-go-round is about to be switched on again – hoping you back lots of winners this weekend

 

  • By the by, with just one very ordinary Nursery event today, the service will be back on Monday. The six represented trainers in the 3.35 at Newmarket today ‘boast’ aggregate stats of 8/86 in two-year-old handicap races this season, compared to a ratio of 14/22 via the top four contributors this term.  There are no Nursery events on Sunday.

 

SATURDAY ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

DONCASTER:

1.45: Persuing Steed – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.50: Missy Mischief – 15/8 (Unobet)

3,25: Muntadad – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

4.00: Two horses to consider: Harome – 5/1 (Generally available) & Bashiba – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.05: Andok – 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

NEWBURY: 

1.50: The Trader – 6/1 (365/Boyle)

3.00: Charles Molson – 16/1 (Hills/Boyle)

3.35: Dan’s Dream – 28/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Winged Spur – 12/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Outofthequestion – 11/4 (365/Betfair/PP)

NEWMARKET: 

2.10: Aquanura – 2/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.45: Count Otto – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.20: Case Key – 8/1 (PP)

5.05: Gododdin – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.35: Highlight Reel – 7/1 (Generally available)

RIPON:

1.30: Whiskey And Water – 2/1 (Hills)

2.05: Quick Look – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

3.15: Terentum Star – 10/1 (365/Hills/Betfair/PP)

4.25: Two horses to consider: Weellan – 11/2 (Generally available) & Club Wexford – 9/1 (365)

CHEPSTOW (TRANSFERRED FROM BATH):

7.10: Redgrave – 7/1 (PP/Betfair)

7.40: Long Call – 14/1 (365/Ladbrokes)

8.10: Foxangel – 9/2 (Berfair/PP)

PERTH: 

1.25: Lincoln County – 8/1 (BetBright)

2.30: U Name It – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.05: Cubomania – 5/2 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/Coral)

4.15: Uptown Funk – 10/3 (Marathon)

4.45: Dun Faw Good – 13/2 (Skybet/BetVictor)

MARKET RASEN:

4.55: King Alfonso – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.30: Brecon Hill – 17/2 (365/BetVictor)

6.00: Silent Account – 14/1 (Generally available)

7.00: Boss Des Mottes – 6/1 (Generally available)

7.30: Bellany Knight – 12/1 (Hills)

8.00: Chieftains Choice – 10/1 (Hills)

Aug 17

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Friday 17th

NEWBURY – AUGUST 17

 

Six year Corresponding stats at Newbury:

46 races – 18 winning favourites – 41/46 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer over the course of the two day fixture:

6 winners: William Haggas – 3 runners today: Boerhan (1.50), Swiss Air (3.30) & Island Of Life (4.00)

 

  • Similar stats for Catterick, Newmarket & Nottingham can be found after Beverley’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service:

 

1.20: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eleven renewals of this event and Fox Power was the only horse being supported in the dead of night.  I don’t like offering odds on chances but given the record of the market leaders in this event (see stats below), there is (seemingly) nowhere else to go!

Favourite factor: 13 of the 16 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include nine winners.  Market leaders have won six of the last seven contests.

Win selection: Fox Power

Draw factor (seven furlongs – latest result listed first):

12-3-2 (12 ran-good)

8-5-6 (12 ran-good

4-12-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

2-5-7 (11 ran-soft)

9-8-3 (10 ran (soft)

3-4-7 (13 ran-soft)

4-11-5 (11 ran-good)

11-10-7 (12 ran-good)

13-2-12 (11 ran-good)

1-4-9 (13 ran-good)

6-9-5 (15 ran-good)

3-1-8 (15 ran-good)

1-7-6 (11 ran-good)

8-3-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

7-5-12 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-6-4 (11 ran-good to firm)

 

1.50: Richard Hannon saddles Ginger Fox with an each way chance I‘ll wager, though a similar comment also applies to Sheila’s Showcase who looked to offer some win and place value at 10/1 overnight (now a top price of 9/1 with Ladbrokes). That said, William Haggas (fine record at this two day meeting) has declared his Sea The Stars colt Boerhan who is a likely looking newcomer to consider, albeit the trainer believes his late May foal is potentially a serious three-year-old in the making.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card, whereby the same favourite/draw stats apply, whilst 13 of the 16 favourites have finished in the money to date, statistics which include nine winners.

 

2.25: Those of us that don’t throw their alarm clocks out of the window at 4.00 in the morning were on Card Player at 4/1 early doors and though that price has long since dried up, I can’t look anywhere else for the winner.  If you can’t bring yourself to backing horses when the price has gone, an each way option is Keepers Choice according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: All four favourites (via just the three renewals) have finished out with the washing thus far.

Win selection: Card Player

 

2.55: The fact that three-year-olds have not always contested this event (by any means) suggests that vintage raiders have done well to record seven victories during the last 16 years. Mandalayan is the only junior raider on this occasion and Johathan Portman’s raider offers some each way value, though I’m siding with Saroog who is attempting to become the sixth four-year-old winner of the race in the last eleven years.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed in the last 19 years (one non runner–withdrawn before a new market could be formed), whilst nine jollies have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Saroog

Each way saver? Mandalay

 

3.30: This is one of the more difficult races to solve on the card, despite its Listed class which occasionally offers punters a slight edge. Before you start frothing at the mouth given the Irish raider in the field, it’s as well to note that the trainer’s record this side of the Irish Sea is 5/42, whilst all three runners here at Newbury were beaten.  The 7/2 quote about the relevant beast therefore finds yours truly reaching for the ‘bottle of sauce’ as I peruse the remaining contenders, with slight preference being awarded to Scintilating and Heartwarming, though not enough to become involved from a financial viewpoint.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

2-7-16 (15 ran-soft)

1-6-3 (11 ran-good to firm)

12-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

2-3-5 (9 ran-soft)

6-4-5 (8 ran-good)

5-3-6 (10 ran-good)

2-5-1 (12 ran-good)

7-11-10 (12 ran-good)

3-7-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-1-2 (18 ran-good to soft)

5-2-6 (10 ran-good)

5-6-1 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

11-4-12 (12 ran-good)

4-1-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-5-1 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-13-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

5-2-10 (10 ran-good to firm)

8-7-4 (8 ran-good)

 

4.00: There has been some money for Awesome (my least favourite word in the dictionary) during the last half an hour or so, though not enough (as yet) to ruffle the feathers of those of us who took the 2/1 available about Island Of Life, believing that James Doyle’s mount was potentially an 11/8 chance in the making.  It remains to see which way the wind will blow (financially) over the course of the next few hours.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites (via three renewals) has finished in the frame thus far.  Three gold medallists have prevailed at 20/1, 10/1 & 8/1.

Win selection: Island Of Life

 

4.35: Alhakmah finished less than five lengths in front of Munaajaat at Goodwood the last day whereby I could not quite comprehend how odds of 2/5 and 33/1 were in place in the dead of night.  I took the 33’s about Brian Meehan’s raider to each way minimum stakes, even though I appreciate the favourite was making her debut at Goodwood.  The odds at least added some interest in the contest, especially as Brian Meehan’s outsider is now as short as 14/1 in a place (Hills).

Favourite factor: All four favourites (via just the three renewals) have finished out with the washing thus far.

Each way selection to minimum stakes: Munaajaat

 

5.10: Abel Tasman (in with a squeak) is still available at 11/2 with Hills at the time of writing, though I’m content to have obtained 12/1 about Bristol Missile from a win and place perspective in the finale, albeit in a competitive heat.

Favourite factor: Three renewals have produced a top priced winner of 4/1 thus far, stats which include one successful (6/4) favourite.

Each way selection: Bristol Missile

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Catterick:

36 races – 9 winning favourites – 27/36 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainers:

3 winners–Marjorie Fife (11/1, 5/1 & 13/2) – 1 runner: Perfect Words (8.15)

3 winners—John Quinn (10/1, 9/2 & 3/1) – 1 runner: Alexis Carrington (7.45)

3 winners—Richard Fahey (13/8*, 6/4* & Evens) – 2 runners: Aurag & Bengali Spirit (6.40)

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Newmarket:

36 races – 8 winning favourites – 34/36 winners have scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Richard Hannon (7/2, 10/3, 5/2 & 15/8) – 1 runner: Chatham House (6.20)

 

Six year Corresponding stats for Nottingham:

42 races – 18 winning favourites – 39/42 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Mick Channon (9/1, 8/1, 11/4** & 9/4) – 2 runners: Converter (1.30) & Caravela (4.45)

 

 

Nursery races today (poor quality races in the main – low stakes accordingly):

2.10 Wolverhampton:

Seven pound claimer Oakley Brown (smacks of a tad more class than Mal Boyle) boasts a 25% strike rate for Richard Fahey via two winners for the yard whereby Micronize might well score, albeit at a price which does not attract financial backing.

There might well be worse 40/1 chances than Nagging Doubt running today, though can’t be tempted when there are so many other options on Friday.

3.15 Wolverhampton:

Tom Dascombe won yesterday’s Nursery event (albeit after notable rivals were withdrawn) with what had looked an ordinary type before the stalls opened.  The 14/1 on offer about Five Amarones caught the eye this morning, as Tom is the type of trainer who strings winners together to good effect throughout the season.  Eyelool would otherwise have been the selection.

6.40 Catterick:

If Micronize has scored in an earlier two-year-old handicap this afternoon, I’ll wager that there will be some running up money for Bengali Spirit who looks a tad overpriced at 12/1 this morningAurag also represents the stable at the other end of the market, though it wouldn’t be the first time (not by a long chalk) that Richard has scored with the ‘wrong one’!

 

Nursery stats this season (49 races – 382 runners – as of Friday morning – 17th August):

Favourite stats (54):                     

21 winners – 9 placed – 24 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

3/6

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/23—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/7—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

2/15—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 6/4*) – 9/58 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/12—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/25—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/32—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

147 relevant runners: 40 winners – 35 placed – 72 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

218 runners – 42 winners – 46 placed – 130 unplaced (57.1% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

164 runners – 7 winners – 18 placed – 139 unplaced (42.9% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 35 winners – 34 placed – 130 unplaced (52.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 30 placed – 139 unplaced (47.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Ann Duffield

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Ben Haslam

0/1—Steph Hollinshead

0/1—Christopher Kellett

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—Pat Phelan

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Henry Spiller

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Mark Usher

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Walker

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Andrew Balding

0/4—Tom Clover

0/4—Iain Jardine

0/4—Hughie Morrison

0/4—David O’Meara

0/5—Roger Fell

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Jamie Osborne

0/6—Ralph Beckett

0/6—Karl Burke

0/6—Joseph Tuite

0/7—Richard Hughes

0/7—Brian Meehan

0/9—Tim Easterby

0/13—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1–Helmet

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (30.6% of winners)

15—March (30.6%)

12—April (24.5%)

7—January (14.3%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

1 win (Beverley) – Five Helmets (68) & 3 unplaced (70 – 71 – 78)

 

Aug 17

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 17th

Thursday’s school report: 

11/1 and 9/1 winners for Mal yesterday which were returned at 6/1 & 7/2* respectively.

So many of the beaten horses were backed off the boards but then again, there’s always today – and there’s lots of interest this afternoon (particularly) at the time of writing.

 

FRIDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

NEWBURY:

1.20: Fox Power – 5/6 (Betfair/PP)

1.50: Sheila’s Showcase – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.25: Game Player – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.55: Saroog – 3/1 (Generally available)

3.30: Scintilating – 7/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

4.00: Island Of Life – 2/1 (Hills)

4.35: Munaajaat – 33/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.1 0: Bristol Missile -12/1 (Generally)

NOTTINGHAM: 

2.00: Two horses to consider: Cale Lane – 7/2 (Generally available) & Penny Pot Lane – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.35: Poppy Jag – 33/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.05: Magical Sight – 3/1 (Generally available)

4.10: Dawn Choir (Skybet)

5.15: Born To Spend – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

NEWMARKET:

5.55: Robero – 11/2 (PP)

7.00: Little Jo – 11/4 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

7.30: Brancaster – 10/1 (Hills/Marathon/BetBright/BetVictor)

8.05: Argentello – 13/2 (Ladbrokes/Boyle/Betfair)

CATTERICK: 

6.40: Bengali Spirit – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.10: Muraadef – 8/1 (Skybet/Hills)

7.45: Beeno (Generally available)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 

1.40: Alaskan Bay – 9/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Five Amarones – 14/1 (Generally available)

4.20: Bo Samraan – 9/2 (PP)

CHELMSFORD:

6.20: Capla Fire – 11/2 (PP)

6.50: Humbert – 7/2 (Generally available)

7.20: Corinthia Knight – 4/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

7.55: Nathan – 13/2 (365/Betfair/BetVictor)

8.30: King Athelstan – 7/2 (365/BetVictor)

9.00: Dazzling Rock – 13/2 (Ladbrokes/BetBright)

Aug 16

Daily analysis & Nursery service

BEVERLEY – AUGUST 16

 

Six year corresponding stats for this meeting:

44 races – 11 winning favourites – 37/44 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners Mark Johnston (11/2*, 7/2, 3/1, 5/2 & 7/4*) – 2 runners today: Spirit Kingdom (2.30) & Precision (4.00)

 

  • Similar stats for Salisbury can be found after Beverley’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service:

 

2.00: With little interest for the third horse in the projected market, the race looks set to be dominated by Glass Slippers and Que Amoro, though not sufficiently for me to side with either of them to make a selection.

Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: Mark Johnston has won four of the last eight renewals and the potential record breaking trainer has offered the green light to Spirit Kingdom this time around.  That said, Mark has hardly been a dominant force in the Nursery sector this season (stats of 1/24) though I’m pleased that his runner is being opposed in the market at the time of writing, as five of Mark’s beaten horses have been returned as favourites in their respective two-year-old handicap assignments. Abies Hollow is the win and place call accordingly, with Tony Coyle also having saddled a Nursery winner this term, though from just two representatives.  There was money for Tony’s Harbour Watch gelding early doors this morning and this pair will do for me against the field. Tim Easterby’s One To Go is far too short at around 5/4 for yours truly to entertain, with the trainer attempting to snare his first Nursery winner of the season with his tenth runner in the sector.

Favourite factor: Two of the last six favourites have obliged, albeit they are the only successful favourites to be recorded during the last thirteen years.  That said, the biggest priced winner during the study period was sent off at 9/1.  Just under half of the favourites (7/15) secured Placepot positions via thirteen renewals during the study period.

Each way selection: Abies Hollow

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, though trainers have lost the plot this year as no junior runners have been declared!   I feel that I’m close to nominating a big priced winner for Bryan Smart and yesterday proved the theory, to a fashion.  I offered a good word for Tick Tock Croc at 20/1 and though the horse could only finish (frustratingly) fourth, his starting price was 6/1, the second such inmate to have been well backed of late when mentioned in dispatches. Siyahamba is not as strong a selection as the other pair but at 28/1 in a place this morning, there will be worse outsiders on the card.  Form book types will point to those at the top of the market I guess, though I’ll opt for another two outsiders for you to consider in Bittersweet (generally a 14/1 chance), whilst Betfair ore out on a potentially precarious limb at 33’s about Al Hawraa.

Favourite factor: Ten renewals have slipped by since the last (3/1) favourite obliged, though the winners of all of those races have been won by horses returned at 9/1 or less.  Eight of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Two big priced outsiders to consider: Siyahamba & Al Hawraa at 28/1 and 33/1 respectively.

 

3.30: Some of us were on Round The Island at 25/1 early doors this morning but even though Richard Whitaker’s Royal Applause gelding has been backed down to as low as 10/1 in a place, Betfair are seemingly are still offering 25’s as I start to close out this analysis. Poppy In The Wind (22/1) and Gamesome (25/1) are other ’roughies’ that look set to outrun their fancy prices.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Beverley card.

Each way selection: Round The Island

 

4.00: Mark Johnston has secured four of the last six renewals when represented which is surely a pointer towards his raider Precision. Mark’s Galileo gelding runs for the first time for the yard and we know that the trainer is adept at sweetening up his new inmates.

Favourite factor: Just two market leaders have won via the last twelve contests though to paint the full picture, it’s only right to tell you that eleven of the last twelve gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.  Seven of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Win selection: Precision

 

4.30: With no real trends to work with, Archie Perkins looks as solid an option as anything else at around the 4/1 mark, though not enough to prize money out of my wallet.  Out of interest, there appears to be some bizarre money around at 66’s for Calling Rio at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have won three of the five contest thus far,

 

5.00: Richard Guest saddled the winner of this race for amateur riders a couple of years back and the 25/1 quotes by Betfair & Paddy Power about stable representative Mr Cool Cash attract the eye to minimum each way stakes.  A dual course and distance winner as a six-year-old contender, Joanna Mason’s mount could give us a decent run for our speculative wagers.  Joanna rode her last mount to winning effect last week (confidence should be high), the 25th winner of her career.

Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the only winning favourite during the last decade was recorded.  Four winners have been returned at double figure prices ranging between 14/1 & 33/1.

Tentative win and place selection to minimum stakes: Mr Cool Cash

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Salisbury:

33 races – 18 winning favourites – 40/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Clive Cox (9/2, 4/1, 11/4*, 15/8*, Evens* & 4/9*) – 2 runners today: Blue Willow (2.40) & Zonderland (4.10)

 

Nursery race today:

2.30 Beverley:

Mark Johnston has won four of the last eight renewals and the potential record breaking trainer has offered the green light to Spirit Kingdom this time around.  That said, Mark has hardly been a dominant force in the Nursery sector this season (stats of 1/24) though I’m pleased that his runner is being opposed in the market at the time of writing, as five of Mark’s beaten horses have been returned as favourites in their respective two-year-old handicap assignments. Abies Hollow is the win and place call accordingly, with Tony Coyle also having saddled a Nursery winner this term from just two representatives.  There was money for Tony’s Harbour Watch gelding early doors this morning and this pair will do for me against the field. Tim Easterby’s One To Go is far too short at around 5/4 for yours truly to entertain, with the trainer attempting to snare his first Nursery winner of the season with his tenth runner in the sector.

 

Nursery stats this season (48 races – 377 runners – as of Thursday morning – 16th August):

Favourite stats (53):                     

20 winners – 9 placed – 24 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

3/6

Winning trainers:

5/7—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5, 4/6* & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

5/22—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/7—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—Daniel Mark Loughnane (8/1) – 0/6 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/12—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/14—Tom Dascombe (5/1) – 9/58

1/24—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/32—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Andrew Balding (6/1** & 7/2**)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

2—Joseph Tuite (2 x 7/2**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

144 relevant runners: 39 winners – 34 placed – 71 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

214 runners – 41 winners – 45 placed – 128 unplaced (56.8% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

163 runners – 7 winners – 18 placed – 138 unplaced (43.2% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 34 winners – 34 placed – 128 unplaced (52.0% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 29 placed – 138 unplaced (48.0% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

9 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

4 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Michael Attwater

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Ann Duffield

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Ben Haslam

0/1—Steph Hollinshead

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—Pat Phelan

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Henry Spiller

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Mark Usher

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Walker

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—David O’Meara

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Andrew Balding

0/4—Tom Clover

0/4—Iain Jardine

0/4—Hughie Morrison

0/5—Roger Fell

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Jamie Osborne

0/6—Ralph Beckett

0/6—Karl Burke

0/6—Joseph Tuite

0/7—Richard Hughes

0/7—Brian Meehan

0/9—Tim Easterby

0/13—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Society Rock

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dragon Pulse

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (31.2% of winners)

15—March (31.2%)

11—April (22.9%)

7—January (14.7%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Chester & Kempton) – Quiet Endeavour (85 & 91)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Kempton) – Precision Prince (54)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

Aug 16

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 16th

Wednesday’s school report: 

Fabulous day yesterday – see Twitter page for all the details + have a look at yesterday’s Beverley analysis – if I repeat that effort today at the track I will be very happy.

Nursery results continue to impress – to yours truly anyway!  

Seven of the last ten selections have won, whilst just two horses were mentioned in one of the races yesterday (finished in correct order) offering a 14/1 forecast – just for good measure…

 

THURSDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

BEVERLEY:

2.30: Abies Hollow – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.00: Siyahamba – 28/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.30: Round The Island – 25/1 (Betfair/PP)

SALISBURY: 

2.10: Popping Corks – 13/2 (365/BetVictor)

2.40: Calendimaggio – 11/2 (PP)

3.10: Wicked Sea – 8/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/BetVictor)

3.40: 2 horses to consider: Lifeboat – 6/1 (Betfair) & Downtown Mombasa – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Marathon)

4.10: Oh This Is Us – 9/1 (Generally available)

4.40: Hyanna – 3/1 (Unibet)

5.10: Rocky Shores – 25/1 (365)

CHEPSTOW:

5.35: Gibeno – 4/1 (Generally available)

7.10: Just An Idea – 11/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/Betway)

7.45: Faithful Mount – 5/1 (Generally available)

YARMOUTH: 

4.45: Good Business – 9/1 (365)

8.00: Buxted Dream – 7/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Betway/BetVictor)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 

2.50: La Fortuna – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.20: Cue’s Folly – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.50: Caledonia Laird – 10/1 (Hills)

Aug 15

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 15th

BEVERLEY – AUGUST 15

 

Six year corresponding stats for Wednesday at Beverley:

45 races – 19 winning favourites – 43/15 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (4/1, 3/1, 2/1*, 7/4* & 5/6*) – 2 runners today: Dream Sands (2.30) & Firlinfeu (3.30)

 

Six year aggregate stats for the two date meeting at Beverley:

89 races – 30 winning favourites

Leading trainers:

11 winners—Mark Johnston – 2 runners today (see above)

6 winners—Richard Fahey – 6 runners today: Myco (2.00), Kingson (2.30), Dontgiveuponbob (3.00), Chingachgook (3.30), Golonda Price (4.00) & ameo Star (5.00)

 

  • Similar stats for Salisbury can be found after Beverley’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service:

 

2.00: Under Curfew could take the beating but 2/1 (thereabouts) hardly sets the pulse racing and I would rather wait for Jedd O’Keeffe’s Nursery runners to appear this season.  Jeff boasted stats of 3/9 in that sector last year and I will keep my eyes peeled for his first two-year-old handicapper as best I can.  In the meantime, his 1/19 record in this type of race this term hardly warrants a visit to the bank this morning to lump on Under Curfew.  I nominated Tick Tock Crock at a big price last time out and though beaten, money arrived for Brian Smart’s raider and there will be worse outsiders on today’s card I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions.

 

2.30: There are two ‘Dream’ horses to confuse the issue and the right one to be on might prove to be Dream Poet as money has arrived for Jedd O’Keeffe’s raider since I offered my MMA work, now looking a little too big at 17/2 with Paddy Power at the time of writing.  Jedd’s March foal warrants each way inspection at those odds.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/2 favourite finished third when snaring a Placepot position.

Each way nomination: Dream Poet

 

3.00: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2 which offers chances to Dontgiveuponbob, Kody Ridge (via claiming pilot) and (to a fashion) Justice Pleasing.  The trio are listed in order of preference, though not sufficiently to offer a nomination.

Favourite factor: Six years have drifted by since the last favourite prevailed though that said, three of the previous four market leaders had obliged.

 

3.30: Eleven of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-3 or more which is why I was tempted by the general 6/1 on offer about

Everythingforyou in the dark of night.  As short as 4/1 with PP now, the value has gone, though Ladbrokes are out on a limb at 11/2 if you’re quick.  Hamlul appears to be the obvious danger, though you can dispel thoughts of obtaining 9/4 (trade paper suggestion) as 11/8 is nearer the mark at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last seventeen winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  Only six of the last thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Win selection: Everythingforyou

 

4.00: Three-year-olds have snared three of the last four renewals with plenty of respect shown by yours truly regarding the declarations of Blue Reflection and (particularly) Ideal Candy.  Karen Tutty’s latter named raider always appeared to be half decent value at the early morning price of 9/2, now being on offer at 4/1 almost right across the boards and as short as 7/2 in a place.

Favourite factor: Three of the last six favourites have scored, though they are the only market leaders to have prevailed during the last twelve years.

Win selection: Ideal Candy

 

4.30: Junior raiders (three-year-olds) have won five of the last six contests and vintage raider Vision Clear offers some potential value at around 8/1 I’ll wager.  That said, money has started to pour in for Zihaam during the last half an hour or so whereby you might have to jump in quick to get 9/1 about Roger Fell’s four-year-old entry.  Any horse is entitled to an excuse for under-performing around the twists and turns at Chester (as was the case the last day) and Tony Hamilton’s mount is a course and distance winner here for good measure.

Favourite factor:  The last ten winners of this event have scored at a top price of 15/2, stats which include three successful market leaders.

Each way selection: Zihaam

 

5.00: My early morning MMA readers were on Our Little Pony at 6/1 (generally available at 6.30 this morning) and as the horse in now trading at a top price of 4/1, I’m happy to wrap up proceedings by nominating the course and winner.

Favourite factor: The finale is a new race on the Beverley card.

Win selection: My Little Pony

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Salisbury:

37 races – 12 winning favourites – 33/37 winners scored at a top price of 17/2

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Henry Candy (20/1, 11/2, 5/1, 4/1 & 5/2 – 1 runner today: Chain Of Daisies (3.40)

 

Six year aggregate stats for the two date meeting at Salisbury:

70 races – 30 winning favourites

Leading trainers:

8 winners—Clive Cox – 5 runners today: Flash Of Power & My Kind Of Suynchine (2.10), Swing Out Sinster (2.40), King’s Slipper (3.10) & Cuire (3.40)

5 winners—Henry Candy – 1 runner today (see above)

 

 

Nursery races today:

 

5.30 Kempton:

As far as I can detect, these are the first Nursery events of the season at Kempton and now we get two for the price of one!

I mentioned Andrew Balding in passing yesterday and his 16/1 winner took his recent ratio to 8/20, stats which have produced 38 points of level stake profit.

Andrew’s fourth two-year-old handicapper of the season (no winners to date) is Pot Luck.  His sire Pheonix Reach was beaten a head by Norse Dancer on his only juvenile assignment and whilst Pot Luck was always going to take time to score this term, connections will be running out of patience if he fails to score today, having been beaten less than four lengths on his Nursery bow the last day.

Mr Fox offers each way hope for connections I’ll wager given his 20/1 price tag this morning which looks a tad generous from my viewpoint.

Win selection: Pot Luck

Each way saver? Mr Fox

 

6.30 Kempton:

Leoube is Richard Hannon’s only Nursery winner this season via 31 runners which suggests that the trainer will be scratching his head (and then some) back at the ranch.

Place money is the best that connections can hop for given the declaration of Quiet Endeavour who has been given every chance of landing a four timer by her trainer Archie Watson.

Archie’s 4/6 ratio in two-year-old handicaps is startling given his lack of training experience in terms of years.  In just his third season, Archie has turned out 17 two-year-old winners at A/W venues via a 25% strike rate.

Win selection: Quet Endeavour

 

Nursery stats this season (43 races – 354 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 15th August):

Favourite stats (50):                     

19 winners – 8 placed – 23 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

5/22—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/6—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/7—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/10—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/14—Tom Dascombe (5/1) – 9/58

1/23—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/31—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Joseph Tuite (7/2**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

138 relevant runners: 38 winners – 33 placed – 67 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

201 runners – 39 winners – 43 placed – 119 unplaced (56.8% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

153 runners – 7 winners – 17 placed – 129 unplaced (43.2% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 32 winners – 32 placed – 124 unplaced (53.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 28 placed – 124 unplaced (46.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

8 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

3 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Ann Duffield

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Ben Haslam

0/1—Steph Hollinshead

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Walker

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—David O’Meara

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Iain Jardine

0/4—Jamie Osborne

0/5—Ralph Beckett

0/5—Roger Fell

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Joseph Tuite

0/6—Karl Burke

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/6—Brian Meehan

0/9—Tim Easterby

0/12—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (32.6% of winners)

13—March (28.3%)

11—April (23.9%)

7—January (15.2%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

 

 

 

Nursery races today:

5.30 Kempton:

As far as I can detect, these are the first Nursery events of the season at Kempton and now we get two for the price of one!

I mentioned Andrew Balding in passing yesterday and his 16/1 winner took his recent ratio to 8/20, stats which have produced 38 points of level stake profit.

Andrew’s fourth two-year-old handicapper of the season (no winners to date) is Pot Luck.  His sire Pheonix Reach was beaten a head by Norse Dancer on his only juvenile assignment and whilst Pot Luck was always going to take time to score this term, connections will be running out of patience if he fails to score today, having been beaten less than four lengths on his Nursery bow the last day.

Mr Fox offers each way hope for connections I’ll wager given his 20/1 price tag this morning which looks a tad generous from my viewpoint.

Win selection: Pot Luck

Each way saver? Mr Fox

 

6.30 Kempton:

Leoube is Richard Hannon’s only Nursery winner this season via 31 runners which suggests that the trainer will be scratching his head (and then some) back at the ranch.

Place money is the best that connections can hope for given the declaration of Quiet Endeavour who has been given every chance of landing a four timer by her trainer Archie Watson.

Archie’s 4/6 ratio in two-year-old handicaps is startling given his lack of training experience in terms of years.  In just his third season, Archie has turned out 17 two-year-old winners at A/W venues via a 25% strike rate.

Win selection: Quet Endeavour

 

Nursery stats this season (43 races – 354 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 15th August):

Favourite stats (50):                     

19 winners – 8 placed – 23 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

5/22—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/6—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

4/8—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/6—Declan Carroll (11/4* & 8/1) – 1/8 last year

2/6—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/7—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Ruth Carr (14/1) – No Nursery runners last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/10—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/14—Tom Dascombe (5/1) – 9/58

1/23—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/31—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

3—Tom Dascombe (4/1**, 13/8 & 2/1)

2—Richard Hannon (11/10 & 15/8)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

James Tate (7/2)

Joseph Tuite (7/2**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

138 relevant runners: 38 winners – 33 placed – 67 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

201 runners – 39 winners – 43 placed – 119 unplaced (56.8% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

153 runners – 7 winners – 17 placed – 129 unplaced (43.2% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 32 winners – 32 placed – 124 unplaced (53.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 28 placed – 124 unplaced (46.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

8 at 9-7

4 at 9-6

3 at 9-5

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Rebecca Bastiman

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Peter Chapple-Hyam

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Ann Duffield

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Ben Haslam

0/1—Steph Hollinshead

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Ed Walker

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—David O’Meara

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Iain Jardine

0/4—Jamie Osborne

0/5—Ralph Beckett

0/5—Roger Fell

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Joseph Tuite

0/6—Karl Burke

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/6—Brian Meehan

0/9—Tim Easterby

0/12—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Bungle Inthejungle

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dubawi

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1–Sepoy

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (32.6% of winners)

13—March (28.3%)

11—April (23.9%)

7—January (15.2%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Across The Sea (69)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Nottingham) – Mark’s Choice (75)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Thirsk) – House Deposit (60) & 1 unplaced (62)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

 

 

Aug 15

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 15th

Tuesday’s school report: 

Mal dug out a 10/1 winner yesterday which was returned at 3/1, though four second placed ‘selections’ at 10/1 (returned at 9/2), 8/1 (15/2), 8/1 (15/2) & 11/4 (5/2) kept the frustrations running at boiling point, if you’ll pardon the play on words….

 

WEDNESDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

BEVERLEY:

3.30: Everything For You – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Ideal Candy – 9/2 (PP)

5.00: Our Little Pony – 6/1 (Skybet)

SALISBURY: 

2.10: Dirty Rascal – 9/4 (Skybet)

3.10: George – 11/4 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: Chain Of Daisies – 7/2 (Hills)

4.40: Crystal Casque – 11/2 (Skybet/BetVictor)

NEWTON ABBOT:

2.50: Voodoo Doll – 5/1 (365)

4.20: Eric The Third – 9/2 (Hills)

4.50: Madame Vogue – 20/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills)

WORCESTER: 

5.50: Comber Mill 12/1 (Generally available)

6.50: Outrageous Romana – 6/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.50: Starcrossed – 9/2 (Generally available)

KEMPTON: 

5.30: Mr Fox – 20/1 (Generally available)

6.00: I Am Magical – 8/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

 

Aug 14

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Tuesday 14th

FFOS LAS – APRIL 15

 

  • Five year corresponding stats for the meeting at Nottingham today can be found below the race by race analysis for Ffos Las and before today’s Nursery service. Keith Dalgleish was one of two trainers highlighted yesterday with Keith going on to snare a 59/1 double at Ayr.

 2.15: Rod Millman saddled another Nursery winner for us yesterday and with the team in good form of late, Sweet Pursuit can land her hat trick even though the ground will be riding softer than on her two previous (successful) visits to Ffos Las.  Even if rain evolves prior to flag fall, Rod’s Pastoral Pursuits filly won on soft ground at Lingfield last year, whilst Finley Marsh takes off a useful five pounds in search of his 43rd winner.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite found one too good when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

2/2—Sweet Pursuit (good and good to firm) – 2/15 at other venues

1/1—Incentive (heavy) – 0/13 elsewhere

Win selection: Sweet Pursuit

 

2.45: The early morning signs are that this will develop into a two horse contest (Hot Team & Leroy Leroy), both in the ring and in the subsequent event.  Such races in the novice juvenile sector fail to attract my attention, especially when the coupled price on offer at the time of writing stands at around the 4/11 mark.  Rod Millman supplied the winner twelve months back and the pick of his trio should prove to be Hawridge Storm, if you are interested in a very speculative each way option.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market leader was turned over by a 2/1 chance in a four runner (win only) contest.

 

3.15: Readers of my Nursery column will not be surprised that I will adhere to the positive trainer stats this afternoon, given the aggregate ratio of 7/11 in the two-year-old handicap sector from Messers Watson and Tate this season.  James Tate’s record of 3/6 could improve here I’ll wager given that his entry Across The Sea is a home bred filly who was slow into her stride this spring but with three runs under her belt, she is expected to score at the first time of asking in handicap company. With a Nursery record of 4/5 this term, anything Archie Watson saddles in this sector has to be feared whereby Kingi Compton is offered from a ‘saver’ perspective.  The coupled ‘price’ of the pair at the time of writing worked out to 7/4.

Favourite factor: This Nursery event is a new race on the Ffos Las card.

Win selection: Across The Sea

Saver? Kingi Compton

 

3.45: Had more rain have fallen during the course of the weekend, Time To Sea would have been an extremely interesting win and place call, though I still expect John Butler’s raider to outrun his 15/2 price at the time of writing.  Duration could prove to be the main danger, especially with Andrew Balding having saddled eight of his last sixteen runners to winning effect, stats which have produced 25 points of level stake profit during the period.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Ffos Las card

Small each way interest: Time To Sea

 

4.15: The second successive less than interesting contest on the card and the only way that I could become at all involved is if the ‘dead eight’ field remains intact going into the afternoon and only then, if 20/1 was still on offer about Carnwennan who could reward speculative each way players.

Favourite factor: Another new race on the Ffos Las programme.

 

4.45: Last year’s event was dominated by horses sent out by dual licence holders and Peter Bowen will be hoping that he can add to the tally here with Rolling Maul whose flat record of 3/6 is far superior to his ratio over obstacles, for all that is where he most often appears. To add some depth to that comment, it’s worth noting that Rolling Maul is also a winner of two of his four NH flat events.  Nabhan was withdrawn from this event last year on account of the heavy ground and with no rain imminent (always a dangerous comment to make at a Welsh venue!), David Probert’s mount is another outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 11/8 jolly finished just outside the short field frame behind two horses trained by dual purpose handlers.

Record of the three course winners in the penultimate event:

1/2—Rolling Maul (heavy) – 2/4 elsewhere

1/1—Hawridge Flyer (heavy) – 0/9 at other venues

1/2—Nabhan (good) 1/15 elsewhere

Each way option: Rolling Maul

 

5.15: Archie Watson has scored with two of just six runners at the track prior to this meeting and Mankind had been found a good opportunity to record his first victory with Holly Doyle scheduled to do the steering.  Holly has ridden nine winners for the trainer, the bandwagon recording a fine 33% strike rate to date.  Bidding War is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The finale is yet another new race on the Ffos Las programme.

Win selection: Mankind

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for Nottingham today:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – 26/35 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading represented trainer to consider:

Robert Cowell has two runners at Nottingham having saddled winners at 20/1 and 5/2 at the corresponding meeting recently; Blue De Vega (7.05) & Indian Tinker (7.35).

Roy Bowring actually heads the list on the three winner mark (25/1, 7/1 & 6/1) but Roy’s next potential runners are not until Friday at the earliest.

 

Nursery races today:

3.15 Ffos Las:

Readers of my Nursery column will not be surprised that I will adhere to the positive trainer stats this afternoon, given the aggregate ratio of 7/11 in the two-year-old handicap sector from Messers Watson and Tate this season.  James Tate’s record of 3/6 could improve here I’ll wager given that his entry Across The Sea is a home bred filly who was slow into her stride this spring but with three runs under her belt, she is expected to score at the first time of asking in handicap company. With a Nursery record of 4/5 this term, anything Archie Watson saddles in this sector has to be feared whereby Kingi Compton is offered from a ‘saver’ perspective.  The coupled ‘price’ of the pair at the time of writing works out to 7/4.

5.35 Nottingham:

Nigel Tinkler has scored with two of his four Nursery runners this season and there will be worse outsiders on Nottingham’s card than I’m Billy Murphy I’ll wager, especially if the ‘dead eight’ field remains in place at flag fall.  Minimum each way stakes apply.

5.50 Thirsk:

With the emphasis very much dominated by the number of runners rather than decent form lines, my speculative pair against the field again comes via trainers who have decent records in the sector this term, namely James Tate (Double Quick) and Nigel Tinkler (Bouncin Back).  Small stakes advised.

 

Nursery stats this season (43 races – 325 runners – as of Tuesday morning – 14th August):

Favourite stats (47):                     

19 winners – 7 placed – 21 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

5/21—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2, 15/8 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/4—Rod Millman (14/1, 5/2* & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

3/6—James Tate (9/4*, 11/4 & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/4—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/9—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/12—Tom Dascombe (5/1) – 9/58

1/23—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/28—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

2—Tom Dascombe (4/1** & 2/1)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Richard Hannon (11/10)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Joseph Tuite (7/2**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

129 relevant runners: 37 winners – 29 placed – 63 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

187 runners – 37 winners – 39 placed – 111 unplaced (57.5% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

138 runners – 6 winners – 16 placed – 116 unplaced (42.5% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 29 winners – 28 placed – 109 unplaced (51.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 14 winners – 27 placed – 118 unplaced (48.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

3 at 9-6

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-5

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—William Muir

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Karl Burke

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Joseph Tuite

0/5—Ralph Beckett

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/6—Brian Meehan

0/8—Tim Easterby

0/12—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

3—Sir Prancealot

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (34.9% of winners)

13—March (30.2%)

10—April (23.3%)

5—January (11.6%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (won off 73 – 80 – 86)

3 wins (Leicester, Windsor & Newmarket) – Greeley (60, 66 & 72)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

Aug 14

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 14th

Monday’s school report: 

I’m not hiding behind the fact that no winners evolved on a quiet Monday, suffice to say that seven of the nine each way options I offered reached the frame, including those at 16/1 (returned at 10/1), 12/1 (10/1), 9/1 (3/1) 9/1 (5/1), 8/1 (5/1) & 13/2 (9/2).

For good measure, my Nursery ratio of late improved to 5/6 courtesy of a 5/2 winner and with three two-year-old handicaps today, it might be worth looking at my Daily analysis and Nursery service page which will be available at around 7.00!

 

TUESDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30 – It’s another small stake each way play-day today in the main:

FFOS LAS:

2.15: Tawafoq – 7/1 (365)

3.45: TimeTo Sea – 15/2 (Generally available)

NOTTINGHAM: 

6.05: Cape Islay – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

6.35: Burn Some Dust – 7/2 (Betfair/PP) – One of only two win selections today

7.05: Soie D’leau – 8/1 (Generally available)

8.05: Father McKenzie – 9/1 (Marathon)

THIRSK:

5.50: Double Quick – 7/1 (365)

6.50: French Heroine – 14/1 (Generally available)

7.20: Cliff – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.50: Queens Royale – 6/1 (Generally available)

8.20: Allnight – 12/1 (Generally available)

CHELMSFORD: 

3.30: Blue Mist – 11/4 (Hills/Betfair/PP) – The other win selection today

4.00: Duggary – 8/1 (Skybet/Betfair/PP/Coral)

 

Aug 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 13th

Apologies offered for the unexpected absence since Thursday – hoping you have backed plenty of winners during the relevant period.

 

Monday – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.15 – It’s a small stake each way play-day today:

AYR:

3.10: Carnageo – 9/1 (Generally available)

3.40: Wooster – 11/1 (Skybet/PP/888/BetVictor)

4.15: Steelriver – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/PP/Betfair)

5.15: Remember Rocky – 9/1 (Hills/Betfair)

RIPON: 

1.50: Sophia Maria – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.55: Stone The Crows – 13/2 (Generally available)

3.25: Aquarium – 4/1 (Unibet)

4.30: Arcane Dancer – 12/1 (Generally available)

WINDSOR:

5.20: Frank Cool – 8/1 (Generally available)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 

5.40: Wide Acclaim – 9/1 (Paddy Power)

8.40: Corton Lad – 15/2 (PP)

 

 

Aug 13

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Monday 13th

I’m back in situ after a horrendous few days owing to ill health – apologies for my absence which my wife posted on Twitter first thing on Friday…

 

WINDSOR – APRIL 13

Five year corresponding stats for Windsor:

30 races – 12 winning favourites – 27/30 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer during the study period:

3 winners—Richard Hannon (4/1, 7/2 & 6/5*) – 4 runners tonight: Aim Power & Laoise (6.00), Water Deviner (6.30) & Bathsheba Bay (7.00)

 

  • Similar stats for Ayr can be found below the race by race Windsor analysis and before the Nursery work…..

 

5.30: Flowing Clarets was withdrawn from this race twelve months ago on account of the fast ground which should not be a factor this evening.  Indeed, it’s difficult to judge just how much rain there might be at Windsor this evening, so keep your eyes peeled for non runners.  Wild Flower took advantage of the withdrawal last year to score off the same mark as today, which surely makes the six-year-old a definite player.  Frank Cool completes my trio against the remaining twelve runners.  No bet…..

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

2/5—Flowing Clarets (2 x soft) – 3/21 elsewhere

1/1—Wild Flower (good to firm) – 2.40 at other venues – won this race last year off the same mark (53)

 

6.00: The pair at the top of the market have wide draws to contend with though that said, if some of the potential thunderstorms hit just west of where they have been predicted to go today, I guess traps 11 (Aim Power) & 12 (Shorter Skirt) might have the call.  Such uncertainty = no bet.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor programme.

 

6.30: The stats suggest that Greeley will represent some value, especially with the dual Nursery winner having secured two wins for Rod Millman from just three runners from the trainer in the sector this season.  Although Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston have both saddled a two-year-old handicap winner this term, it has taken the trainers an aggregate of 49 inmates to achieve their victories whereby their runners here do not attract my cash.  I offer Dombra and Revich as value for money dangers accordingly.

Favourite factor: All five market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include three (8/11, 10/11 & 11/10) winners.

Win Selection: Greely

 

7.00: Six of the seven three-year-olds thus far have finished in the money, statistics which include winners at 4/1 & 5/4*. This year’s two relevant declarations head the market with Midnight Meeting preferred to Bathsheba Bay, with the projected favourite having to give just four pounds to Richard Hannon’s latter named raider.

Favourite factor: Five favourites to date have just one gold and a single silver medal (two Placepot positions) to show for their endeavours.

Record of the three course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/5—Fast Dancer (good to firm) – 3/38 elsewhere

1/2—Man Of Harlech (soft) – 3/22 at other tracks

1/1—Envoy (good) – 1/6 elsewhere

Win selection: Midnight Meeting

 

7.30: Although the 9-7 burden might stop the jockey from fully booting Alan King’s Royal Household all the way to the line if his winning chance has gone, the 12/1 quote still available with plenty of firms at the time of writing makes a degree of appeal in a race which will not take a great deal of winning. The course and distance winner Couldn’t Could She is the biggest threat from my viewpoint.  Buckland Boy might take care of the rest of the field.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/6 market leader duly obliged.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Couldn’t Could She (good to firm) – 1/15 elsewhere

Each way selection: Royal Household

 

8.00: Three-year-olds tend to get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage maiden events and course and distance winner Dubai Silk is given the nod over Indian Tygress, though money for Poyle George Two would add a little more interest in proceedings.

Favourite factor: The finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

Record of the course winner:

1/1—Dubai Silk (good) – 0/1 elsewhere

Win selection: Dubai Silk

Saver to consider – if money arrives for Poyle George Two

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year stats for Ayr this afternoon:

38 races – 9 winning favourites – 35/38 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers during the study period:

5 winners—Linda Perratt (12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 7/2* & 2/1** – includes a 350/1 treble in 2015) – 9 runners today: Lucky Violet & Let Right Be Done (2.05), Stardrifter & Retirement Beckons (2.40), Dark Crystal (3.10), Dutch Dream, Burmese Blazer & Palavicini Run (4.45) & Indie Groove (5.15)

4 winners—Keith Dalgleish (20/1, 18/1, 8/1 & 4/1) – 6 runners: Beechwood Ella (1.35), Inglorious (2.05), War Department (3.10), Good Boy Alfie (3.40) & Qasr & Eyreborn (5.15)

 

Nursery schedule this week (11 races):

Monday: 6.30 Windsor

Tuesday: 3.15 Ffos Las – 5.35 Nottingham – 5.50 Thirsk

Wednesday: 5.30 & 6.30 at Kempton

Thursday: 2.30 Beverley

Friday: 2.10 & 3.15 Wolverhampton + 6.40 Catterick

Saturday: 3.55 Newmarket

 

6.30 Windsor today:

The stats suggest that Greeley will represent some value, especially with the dual Nursery winner having secured two wins for Rod Millman from just three runners from the trainer in the sector this season.

Although Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston have both saddled a two-year-old handicap winner this term, it has taken the trainers an aggregate of 49 inmates to achieve their victories whereby their runners here do not attract my cash.

I offer Dombra and Revich as value for money dangers accordingly.

 

Nursery stats this season (42 races – 318 runners – as of Monday morning – 13th August):

Favourite stats (46):                     

18 winners – 7 placed – 21 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

5/21—Richard Fahey (11/4, 3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/6—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—John Bridger (20/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—Simon Dow (5/2) – 3/7 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/5—Charlie Hills (3/1) – 5/29 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/8—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/8—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/12—Tom Dascombe (5/1) – 9/58

1/22—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/27—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

5—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, Evens, 7/4 & 7/2)

2—Tom Dascombe (4/1** & 2/1)

2—Charlie Hills (4/1 & 7/4**)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tony Coyle (Evens)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Mick Easterby (6/4)

William Haggas (15/8)

Richard Hannon (11/10)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Brian Meehan (5/4)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Joseph Tuite (7/2**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

126 relevant runners: 36 winners – 28 placed – 62 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

181 runners – 36 winners – 38 placed – 107 unplaced (56.9% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

137 runners – 6 winners – 16 placed – 115 unplaced (43.1% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 29 winners – 27 placed – 107 unplaced (51.3% of runners)

8-13 or less: 13 winners – 27 placed – 115 unplaced (48.7% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

3 at 9-6

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-4

2 at 9-5

2 at 9-3

2 at 9-2

2 at 9-0

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-2

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Brian Barr

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Harry Dunlop

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Brian Ellison

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Paul Nicholls

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—John Quinn

0/1—John Ryan

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Robert Eddery

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Alan Berry

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Mick Easterby

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Ron Harris

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Philip McBride

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Adrian Nicholls

0/3—Adam West

0/4—Karl Burke

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Joseph Tuite

0/5—Ralph Beckett

0/5—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Brian Meehan

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/8—Tim Easterby

0/12—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

5—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

2—Zebedee

1–Alhebayeb

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Fast Company

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1–Mayson

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sixties Icon

1—The Factor

FOALING DATES:

15 winners—February (35.7%)

13—March (31.0%)

9—April (21.4%)

5—January (11.9%)

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

3 wins (Ripon/Wolverhampton/Chelmsford) – Implicit (73 – 80 – 86)

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win Lingfield – turf) – Agean Mist (61)

1 win (Newcastle) – Amber Spark (71)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Call Him Al (65)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Newmarket) – Pogo (85)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Recuerdame (65)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Haydock) – Iconic Choice (75) & 1 placed (75)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

 

Aug 11

ANNOUNCEMENT

Sunday 12 August 2018 (09:30)

Morning everyone,

No further updates to bring you other than to thank you for the very kind messages on here and Twitter.

I hope you can understand, I am leaving Mal and Mrs Boyle to update when they wish to.

Hopefully Mal is getting plenty of rest and TLC right now.

Thanks for your patience and understanding.

Tony

 

UPDATE…

Mrs Boyle has tweeted this morning (Just after 7am)

”Malcolm’s wife here.

Malcolm has been barred by his doctor -and me- from using his computer this weekend due to excessively high blood pressure which has averaged 200 over 140 during the last twenty four hours.

He sends his apologies and hopes to be back soon.”

 

Morning Everyone,

I have tried contacting Mal.

He last ‘tweeted’ at 5am Friday morning.

I am not one to ring and ring his phone or his family.

I’m sure you will be aware of Mal’s recent health problems.

I will next post on Monday morning if there are no further updates.

I ask for your patience and prayers please.

Thank you,

Tony McCormick

tmcracing@rocketmail.com

Aug 09

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Thursday 9th

HAYDOCK – AUGUST 9

Stats for the three-day fixture at Haydock last year:

20 races – 7 winning favourites – 19/20 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

Only Mark Johnston saddled more than one winner (8/1 & 4/1) – 2 runners today: X rated (2.10) & Smile A Mile (2.40)

 

  • Six year corresponding stats for today’s Brighton Meeting can be found following the race by race Haydock analysis and before the Nursery stats below – yesterday’s message included an 11/2 winner for designated trainer Tony Carroll.

 

2.10: The opening event is full of imponderables, so much so, that the 20/1 ‘rag’ of the party Rebel Cause (Betfair/Paddy Power) has to be given a chance.  With no history to aid us, the best thing is to sit this one out, unless you make a small play on John Holt’s Cockney Rebel gelding.  Had another declaration been made, Berlusca might have made some appeal in ‘dead eight – bet nothing’ territory but in the circumstances, I’ll let others get involved.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Haydock with which to open proceedings.

Record of the course winner in field:

2/14—Berlusca (good to firm and good to soft) – 9/85 elsewhere

 

2.40: I think it’s fair to say that Tom Dascombe rates Haydock and Chester as his favourite hunting grounds whereby Blyton warrants each way respect, albeit the market (and probably the subsequent race) is dominated by Moyaasar and Metallic Black.  No bet.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged in a short field event before last year’s 2/1 market leader finished out of the frame in a similar field.  New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses reward each way investors.

 

3.10: Four of the last five winners have carried 9-4 or more and the trend is expected to be extended by Biddy Brady at an each way price this afternoon.  That said, Haverland is also overpriced at 9/1 in my book and I expect this pair to outrun their early morning prices today.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites to date have finished out of the frame, though four market leaders have won during the study period.

Each way selection: Biddy Brady

 

3.40: The 6/1 trade press quote about Hee Haw looked wide of the mark in the dead of night and I certainly would not be wanting to lay an each way price about Paul Midgley’s four-year-old Sleeping Indian gelding who was beaten less than four lengths in a typically competitive event on the Knavesmire last time out.  This drop in grade (Class 4 to Class 5) surely makes Connor Beasley’s mount the horse to beat.  Born To Finish might offer most resistance close home, whilst speculative punters could do worse than to consider the win and place merits of Burtonwood.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (7/2 & 9/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

Win Selection: Hee Haw

 

4.10: The 4/7 ratio offered by Maid In India obviously gives the course winner a decent chance, though the 15/2 quote about Magical Dreamer catches the eye (and then some) having fully expected that Betfair/PP offer to have dried up by now.  I expect this pair to dominate close home, with Zip Along leading the remaining five contenders home.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 market leader duly obliged.

Win selection: Maid In India

Each way saver: Magical Dreamer

Record of course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—Maid In India (good) – 3/6 at other venues

 

4.40: Tom Dascombe saddles another each way type on the card in his Henrythenavigator gelding Mac Opolo who looks a tad too big at 14/1 with four firms at the time of writing, six other leading companies having trimmed that price within the last hour or so this morning.  Others to consider include the two course winners listed below, namely Kajaki and Maghfoor.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: Mac Opolo (especially if you can obtain 14/1)

Record of course winner in the sixth contest on the card:

1/5—Kajaki (good to firm) – 2/18 at other venues

1/3—Maghfoor (good to firm) – 0/10 elsewhere

 

5.10: Fourteen of the fifteen available Placepot positions have been claimed by fillies carrying a minimum weight of 8-13, statistics which include all six winners at 7/1-7/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-5/4.  Unfortunately, the remaining seven runners all qualify this time around, whereby I am leaving the stats in the mix for your records as I know some of you retain such information.  Having lost the ‘dead eight’ status of the contest, I’m relying on the likes of Miss Mumtaz and Stosur to fill the short field frame.

Favourite factor:  Four of the six favourites have finished out with the washing thus far, statistics which have produced one successful (5/4) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year corresponding stats for Brighton:

43 races – 13 winning favourites – 36/43 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer:

3 winners—Tony Carroll (11/1, 8/1 & 3/1) – 9 runners today: Essaka, Wily Poet & Red Alert (2.00), Time Medicean & Suni Dancer (2.30), Henry Croft & River Dart (3.30) & Sir Jamie & Baltic Prince (5.00)

 

Today’s Nursery event – 5.45 Newcastle:

With Brian Barr saddling his first Nursery runner of the season this evening whilst digesting Jamie Osborne’s 0/3 ratio in the sector thus far, this race looks best left to the two market leaders.

That said, Mark Johnston (Kilbarchan) has already saddled four beaten favourites and given that his stats for the season in Nursery events stands at 1/20, slight preference is for Amber Spark, albeit Richard Fahey’s three two-year-old handicap winners have evolved from 18 stable contenders.

The damn of Amber Spark (Shehila) has produced one previous foal which won at the second time of asking, whilst sire Fast Dancer won both of his two juvenile assignments.

The six pounds that Amber Spark receives from the projected odds on favourite should certainly bring the pair close together at the business end of proceedings.

 

Nursery stats this season (35 races – 276 runners – as of Thursday morning – 9th August):

Favourite stats (38):                     

18 winners – 4 placed – 16 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/18—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/5—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Amanda Perrett (11/8*) – 0/3 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/7—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/7—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/20—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/24—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

105 relevant runners: 30 winners – 24 placed – 51 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

150 runners – 30 winners – 32 placed – 88 unplaced (54.4% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

126 runners – 5 winners – 16 placed – 105 unplaced (45.6% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 23 winners – 24 placed – 88 unplaced (48.9% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 24 placed – 105 unplaced (51.1% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-2

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Gary Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—John Gallagher

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/3—Joseph Tuite

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/7—Tim Easterby

0/10—Tom Dascombe

0/11—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Compton Place

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

14 winners—February

11—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Brighton) – Tinto (68) & 1 unplaced (68)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

Aug 09

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 9th

Wednesday’s school report: 

We brought the ‘dead’ period to an end yesterday (no gains/losses in the two previous days) to a halt yesterday with 5 MMA WINNERS at 25/1 (same SP), 5/1 (returned at 3/1), 4/1 (5/4), 4/1 (5/2) & 13/8 (5/6)!

Seven losers were backed off the boards including those at 28/1 (9/1), 11/1 (3/1), 8/1 (9/4) & 7/1 (2/1) – a couple of wins from that sector would definitely have made it a golden day, not that I am complaining, as hopefully you aren’t either!

 

THURSDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

BRIGHTON:

2.30: Topmeup – 5/2 (365/Hills/Betway)

3.30: Dr Richard Kimble – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00: Winged Spur – 8/1 (Generally available)

4.30: Sharp Operator – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.00: Motajaasid – 9/4 (365)

HAYDOCK: 

2.10: Rebel Cause – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.10: Haverland – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: Hee Haw – 4/1 (Generally available)

4.10: Magical Dreamer – 15/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

4.40: Mac Opolo – 14/1 (Generally available)

5.10: Miss Mumtaz – 9/4 (365/Ladbrokes/Betway/BetVictoe)

SANDOWN:

7.10: He’s Amazing – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetBright/BerVictor)

YARMOUTH:

1.50: African Girl – 10/1 (PP)

2.20: Fanaar – 3/1 (Generally available)

4.20: Hunni (Betfair/PP/188)

4.50: Glen Coco – 9/2 (Generally available)

NEWCASTLE: 

5.15: Ideal Angel – 11/2 (PP)

9.00: Paco Escostar – 7/2 (365)

 

PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL THIS WEEKEND – BEST PRICES IN THE VILLAGE + TEAM RECORDS!

FRIDAY (8.00 kick off):

13/25–Manchester United (Marathon)

10/3–Draw (Betfair)

8/1–Leicester (Black Type)

24 Premier League games – 15 wins for United – 7 draws – 2 wins for Leicester (G/D: 54/21)

 

SATURDAY (12.30 kick off – LIVE ON SKY)

31/10–Newcastle (Black Type)

127/50–Draw (Marathon)

11/10–Tottenham (10Bet & BetVictor)

46 Premier League games thus far: 21 wins for Newcastle – 6 draws – 19 wins for Tottenham (G/D: 72/69)

 

4 x 3.00 kick offs:

Evens–Bournemouth (10Bet)

133/50–Draw (Marathon)

67/20–Cardiff (Marathon)

Bournemouth have never played Cardiff in the Premier League

 

143/100–Fulham (Marathon)

5/2–Draw (Black Type)

23/10–Crystal Palace (Black Type)

4 matches to date: 2 wins for Fulham – 1 draw – 1 win for Crystal Palace (G/D: 9-6)

 

28/5–Huddersfield (Marathon)

31/10–Draw (Marathon)

11/17–Chelsea (10Bet)

2 matches played: 1 draw and 1 win for Chelsea (G/D: 1-2)

 

6/4–Watford (Black Type)

23/10–Draw (Marathon)

123/50–Brighton (Marathon)

2 Premier League games between these clubs – 1 draw & 1 win for Brighton (G/D: 0-1)

 

5.30 kick off — LIVE ON BT SPORT

27/20–Wolves (Marathon)

12/5–Draw (Marathon)

12/5–Everton (BetVictor)

8 Premier League games: 1 win for Wolves – 4 draws – 3 wins for Everton (G/D: 5-10)

 

SUNDAY:

1.30 kick off – LIVE ON SKY:

27/100–Liverpool (Marathon)

11/2–Draw (Marathon/Betfiar/Unibet)

13/1–West Ham (Betfair)

44 Premier League matches played: 26 wins for Liverpool – 9 draws – 9 wins for West Ham (G/D: 81/40)

 

1.30 kick off:

87/100–Southampton (Marathon)

13/5–Draw (10Bet/888)

17/4–Burnley (BetVictor)

6 matches thus far: 2 wins Southampton – 1 draw – 3 wins for Burnley (G/D: 3-6)

 

4.00 kick off – LIVE ON SKY:

57/20–Arsenal (Marathon)

59/20–Draw (Marathon)

21/20–Manchester City  (10Bet)

Premiership record – 23 wins Arsenal – 10 draws – 9 wins Man City (G/D: 69/44)

Aug 08

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 8th

PONTEFRACT – AUGUST 8

  • You can find six year corresponding stats for Brighton after the race by race Pontefract analysis, ratios which include one (underrated) trainer who has saddled 10 winners during the course of the three day festival study period…

2.20:  Amateur events are difficult to digest as I have declared on many occasions, but the one thing I really cannot understand is why racecourses decide to stage these contests as the first race on the card.  I fully appreciate the reasons for these events, but why can’t such races be contested at the end of seven race meetings (such as this one), when people who are not overly interested in amateur contests can beat the traffic home, whereby toteplacepot wagers would also be unaffected?  Surely the friends and supporters of the amateur riders would also have more time to linger and talk to the pilots in an around the unsaddling area with no races to follow the finale?  The other point of cause is the considerable delays we face in this country regarding ‘off times’.  With amateur riders contesting the first race, surely there is more chance of horses ‘playing up’ in general terms and/or entering the stalls which professional jockeys might have avoided. It’s a ‘no-brainer’ from my viewpoint! Upwards and onward by informing that 25/1 about the chance of First Dance with Ladbrokes looks a tad big in what otherwise would have been a race to avoid.  Form book followers might argue that Final Rock and Make Me are more logical winners, though any value for those horses is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 market leaders have reached the frame via 17 renewals (five winners).

 

2.50: Punters who found 4/9 too short to potentially ‘burn their fingers’ about Ventura Ocean on his second start having run a race full of promise on debut at York might dive in here, believing that their timing is right.  I tend to side with juveniles that have actually won rather than make excuses for horses (especially at that price) whereby Watchmyeverymove is considered to be the value for money call if you can obtain odds of 5/2 (thereabouts).

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 favourite duly obliged.

Win selection: Watchmyeverymove

 

3.20: Any rain is likely to come an hour or so too late for connections of the likes of Shouranour and Jo’s Girl, though Micky Hammond’s latter named course and distance winner makes plenty of each way appeal at 20/1 this morning.  Shouranour is rated as the main threat despite the fast ground, whilst Kiwi Bay could sneak another each way position given his consistency.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the frame at 7/1-5/1-8/1.  A slight improvement to report the following year as the market leader (at least) claimed a Placepot position when finding one to good having been returned at 7/4.  Punters were in clover twelve month on however, as the market leaders won both divisions of the contest at odds of 9/4 & 2/1.

Each Way selection: Jo’s Girl

Record of the five course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/3—Billy Roberts (good) – 3/21 elsewhere

2/3—Shouranour (good to firm & good to soft) – 4/45 at other venues

1/1—Jo’s Girl (good to soft) – 0/9 elsewhere

1/6—Beverley Bullet (soft) – 2/23 at other tracks

2/15—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm) – 11/127 elsewhere

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent results printed first):

8-5-4 (8 ran – soft)

1-12-14 (10 ran – soft)

1-2-7 (8 ran – good to firm)

11-8-9 (10 ran – good)

 

3.50: Eight of the last sixteen winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more with three of the six runners ‘qualifying’ via the weight trend this time around.  Even money is still available with five firms relating to Reverend Jacobs (carries 9-5 – as did last year’s winner) which looks something of a steal from my viewpoint, especially as market leaders have won five of the last six contests.  James Doyle’s mount looks more of a 4/5 chance and if that does not seem a great difference from even money, the actual differential is akin to a horse being back from 9/1 into around 11/2.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won during the study period, though just four of the other 15 market leaders secured additional Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Reverend Jacobs

 

4.20: Low (to middle) numbers are generally favoured in such races at Pontefract though with just seven runners engaged, it’s difficult to rule anything out with any degree of certainty.  Bondi Beach Boy and Foxtrot Knight could offer some value in a race in which nothing stands out from the crowd. If another runner had been in situ, Maureb could have been given a live each way (bet to nothing) chance at 28/1 given my reading of the contest.  As it stands, Ladbrokes (out on a limb at that price at the time of writing) might get away with it this time around.

Favourite factor: Just two clear market leaders and a joint favourite have scored during the last 21 years, whilst only 10 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

3-2-5 (10 ran – soft)

9-13-8 (12 ran – good to firm)

4-3-1 (9 ran – good)

5-4-2 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-4 (6 ran – good)

6-4-10 (10 ran – good to firm)

6-2-8 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-7-6 (11 ran – good)

2-9-1 (11 ran – good)

8-11-2 (14 ran – good)

5-7-6 (11 ran – firm)

13-3-9 (13 ran – good to firm)

14-2-7 (14 ran – good)

13-7-14 (15 ran – good to firm)

1-2-12 (12 ran – good to firm)

7-8-5-1 (17 ran – good)

2-17-3-5 (17 ran – good)

16-3-4-17 (17 ran – good to firm)

11-2-12 (14 ran – good to firm)

11-4-3-2 (18 ran – good to firm)

Record of the three course winners in the fifth race:

1/2—Classic Pursuit (good) – 8/69 elsewhere

1/4—Foxtrot Knight (soft) – 4/50 at other tracks

1/4—Bondi Beach Boy (good to firm) – 3/48 elsewhere

 

4.50: First Flight was available at 6.30 this morning when I offered my Morning Market Assessment, though Brian Ellison’s seven-year-old raider is as short as 11/4 now, with 10/3 in five places now standing out from the card.  Without wishing to take victory for granted – win, lose or draw, you really should set your alarm for earlier in the day, especially if you ‘missed chalks’ this morning!  Two For Two is nominated as the chief threat.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the thirteen favourites (via ten renewals) have finished out with the washing, statistics which include two successful market leader and one joint favourite from a win perspective.

Win selection: First Flight

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

8 (4 ran – soft)

2-1-4 (8 ran – good to firm)

1-9-4 (9 ran – good)

3-1-2 (8 ran – good to firm)

6-2-8 (10 ran – good)

3-6-10 (10 ran – good to firm)

12-4-3 (11 ran – good to firm)

4-5-1 (8 ran – good)

6-5-17 (14 ran – good)

7-3-8 (8 ran – good)

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/1—Mutarakez (soft) – 3/29 at other venues

1/3—Rockwood (good) – 6/46 elsewhere

1/5—Pumaflor (good) – 3/48 at other tracks

 

5.25: The same early price of 4/1 (see comment relating to the previous race on the card) was available about Arcavallo and I’m hoping that we end the meeting in ‘double form’ via the last two races on the card.  Round The Island is feared most.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite though that said, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at just 11/2.

Win Selection: Arcarvallo

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

BRIGHTON: The trainer who was detailed above is Tony Carroll whose 10 winners during the course of the three day meeting includes eight gold medallists returned at prices ranging between 5/1 & 14/1.

Wednesday’s six year corresponding details at Brighton:

45 races – 14 winning favourites – 41/45 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Tony Carroll (14/1, 13/2, 6/1, 5/1 & 5/2*) – 6 runners today: Nouvelle Ere (1.40), Pour La Victoire (3.10), Imbucato & Papa Delta (4.10), Sir Jamie (4.40) & Altaira (5.10)

 

WEDNESDAY’S NURSERY SERVICE (Fully updated after yesterday’s three results:

Today’s two-year-old handicap: 2.40 Brighton

As a winner of a two-year-old handicap already this season, North Korea looks a tad big at 6/1 with Paddy Power, as does Wolstonbury at 13/2 with Paddy Power and Betfair.

Mick Channon has (unusally) saddled his first ten runners in the Nursery division without a winner to report this year and Bet365 have jumped on that stat I’ll wager by offering Solesmes at 10/3, even though Mick’s dual winner this term is as short as 2/1 in a place at the time of writing.

It’s all ifs and maybe’s resulting in the conclusion – no bet!

 

Nursery stats this season (34 races – 270 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 8th August):

Favourite stats (37):                     

17 winners – 4 placed – 16 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/18—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/5—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/2—Jonathan Portman (11/4**) – 0/3 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/4—Ed Dunlop (16/1) – 5/32 last year

1/5—Declan Carroll (11/4*) – 1/8 last year

1/6—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/7—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/7—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/20—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/24—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

George Scott (2/1)

Richard Spencer (11/4**)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

102 relevant runners: 29 winners – 24 placed – 49 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

145 runners – 29 winners – 31 placed – 85 unplaced (53.7% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

125 runners – 5 winners – 16 placed – 104 unplaced (46.3% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+: 22 winners – 24 placed – 87 unplaced (49.3% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 23 placed – 102 unplaced (50.7% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-11

2 at 9-2

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—David Barron

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Antony Brittain

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Andrew Crook

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—George Scott

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/1—Ed Walker

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Chris Dwyer

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—David O’Meara

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Iain Jardine

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Roger Fell

0/4—William Haggas

0/5—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Richard Hughes

0/7—Tim Easterby

0/10—Mick Channon –

0/10—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Kyllachy

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Born To Sea

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Coach House

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

14 winners—February

10—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Nottingham) – Hallalulu (61)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Newbury) – Even Keel (75) & 1 unplaced (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

1 win (Ayr) – Tobeeornottobee (53) & 1 unplaced (56)

 

 

Aug 08

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 8th

Tuesday’s school report: Another ‘dead day’ in terms of winning/losing with 3 MMA WINNERS to report at 9/2 (returned at 2/1), 7/2 (11/4) & 7/2 (11/4) – notwithstanding two seconds which were both offered as 5/2 chances before being returned at 7/4.  Those two results made the difference on the day though that said, two of the three Nursery tips via my daily analysis won at 7/2 (both returned at 11/4) – the other one beaten at 16/1 when put up at 33’s in the dead of night.

  • Report back at around 8.30 – as I will have the best prices on all the Premier League match this weekend, Friday through Sunday….

WEDNESDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

BRIGHTON:

3.10: Enigmatic – 11/2 (365/BetVictor)

4.10: Cruel Clever Cat – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.40: Sandkissed – 11/1 (Skybet/Hills/188/BetVictor)

CHEPSTOW: 

2.00: Mooroverthebridge – 16/1 (PP)

3.00: Rockesbury – 8 (Generally available)

4.00: Victory Chime – 4/1 (Skybet/Unibet)

5.00: Master Grey – 5/2 (Generally Available)

PONTEFRACT: 

2.20: First Dance – 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.20: Jo’s Girl – 20/1 (Generally available)

3.50: Reverend Jacobs – Evens (Generally available)

4.20: Maureb – 28/1 Generally available)

4.50: First Flight – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.25: Arcavallo – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

YARMOUTH:

5.20: Jan’s Joy – 5/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes)

7.20: Laith Alareen – 13/8 (Betfair/PP/Coral)

7.50: Herringswell – 9/2 (Generally available)

KEMPTON: 

5.40: Appointment Only – 7/1 (Generally available)

6.40: Alsahhad – 6/1 (Betfair)

9.10: Little Miss Lily – 22/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

PREMIER LEAGUE FOOTBALL THIS WEEKEND – BEST PRICES IN THE VILLAGE + TEAM RECORDS!

FRIDAY (8.00 kick off):

13/25–Manchester United (Marathon)

10/3–Draw (Betfair)

8/1–Leicester (Black Type)

24 Premier League games – 15 wins for United – 7 draws – 2 wins for Leicester (G/D: 54/21)

 

SATURDAY (12.30 kick off – LIVE ON SKY)

31/10–Newcastle (Black Type)

127/50–Draw (Marathon)

11/10–Tottenham (10Bet & BetVictor)

46 Premier League games thus far: 21 wins for Newcastle – 6 draws – 19 wins for Tottenham (G/D: 72/69)

 

4 x 3.00 kick offs:

Evens–Bournemouth (10Bet)

133/50–Draw (Marathon)

67/20–Cardiff (Marathon)

Bournemouth have never played Cardiff in the Premier League

 

143/100–Fulham (Marathon)

5/2–Draw (Black Type)

23/10–Crystal Palace (Black Type)

4 matches to date: 2 wins for Fulham – 1 draw – 1 win for Crystal Palace (G/D: 9-6)

 

28/5–Huddersfield (Marathon)

31/10–Draw (Marathon)

11/17–Chelsea (10Bet)

2 matches played: 1 draw and 1 win for Chelsea (G/D: 1-2)

 

6/4–Watford (Black Type)

23/10–Draw (Marathon)

123/50–Brighton (Marathon)

2 Premier League games between these clubs – 1 draw & 1 win for Brighton (G/D: 0-1)

 

5.30 kick off — LIVE ON BT SPORT

27/20–Wolves (Marathon)

12/5–Draw (Marathon)

12/5–Everton (BetVictor)

8 Premier League games: 1 win for Wolves – 4 draws – 3 wins for Everton (G/D: 5-10)

 

SUNDAY:

1.30 kick off – LIVE ON SKY:

27/100–Liverpool (Marathon)

11/2–Draw (Marathon/Betfiar/Unibet)

13/1–West Ham (Betfair)

44 Premier League matches played: 26 wins for Liverpool – 9 draws – 9 wins for West Ham (G/D: 81/40)

 

1.30 kick off:

87/100–Southampton (Marathon)

13/5–Draw (10Bet/888)

17/4–Burnley (BetVictor)

6 matches thus far: 2 wins Southampton – 1 draw – 3 wins for Burnley (G/D: 3-6)

 

4.00 kick off – LIVE ON SKY:

57/20–Arsenal (Marathon)

59/20–Draw (Marathon)

21/20–Manchester City  (10Bet)

Premiership record – 23 wins Arsenal – 10 draws – 9 wins Man City (G/D: 69/44)

Aug 07

Dauly analysis & Nursery service – Tuesday 7th

CATTERICK – AUGUST 7

Five year Corresponding stats for this meeting:

36 races – 12 winning favourites – 31/36 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainers:

3 winners—Ruth Carr (11/2, 4/1 & 7/2*) – 4 runners: Be Pwerfect (3.10), Zebulon & Chaplain Bay (4.15) & Muraadef (5.15)

3 winners—Marjorie Fife (6/1, 11/4 & 11/4*) – 1 runner: Allnite (5.15)

 

  • Today’s Nursery race details and the complete stats for two-year-old handicap races (31 in total) can be found after Catterick’s race by race analysis

 

2.05: Mark Johnston’s Cape Cross raider Sky Cross was only on offer at 7/2 to win a much stronger race at Sandown on debut and despite flopping (big time) at the Esher venue, connections must have witnessed something half decent back on the ranch before that assignment was undertaken. That said, Simon Crisford has found a decent opportunity for Al Mortajaz to lose his maiden tag at the fourth time of asking.  No bet.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won both renewals to date.

 

2.35: Twelve of the last fourteen gold medallists were burdened with 9-3 or less, stats which bring Pearl Noir and (possibly) On The High Tops into the mix.  Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals with two of the three vintage representatives finishing second and third on the other occasion.  Glyder is the only four-year-old in the field this time around (wake up trainers), whereby trainer John Holt might be rewarded for his ‘insight’.

Favourite factor: Two of the last twelve contests has gone the way of the favourite whilst five winners have been returned in double figures (ranging from 11/1 to 33/1) during the period.  Seven of the fifteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the last thirteen years.

Win selection: Glyder

Record of the four course winners in the second race:

2/5—Kinloch Pride (2 x good to form) – 2/24 elsewhere on turf

1/13—Compton River (good to firm) – last turf win was gained six years ago

1/4—Glyder (good to firm) – 0/13 elsewhere

1/11—On The High Tops (good) – 6 years wince last win

 

3.10: A respectful mention of the name of the late and much respected trainer Alan Swinbank who had saddled the winners of three of the last twelve winners of this event.  The sport cannot afford to lose trainers of Alan’s stature in the game.  Upwards and onward by informing that this is one the best races for favourites during Catterick’s entire year whereby the chances of Sea Youmzain and Casima are respected. That said, Catterick is very much a specialists track as today’s course winner details confirm whereby the each way call is Be Perfect who represents some value at around the 7/1 mark this morning.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won nine of the last twelve renewals whilst the other events were secured by horses sent off at 7/2 and 11/4, given that the 2015 (9/4) market leader was withdrawn before there was any time for a new market to be formed.

Each way selection: Be Perfect   

Record of the four course winners in the second field:

4/6—Be Perfect (3 x good & soft) – 6/55 elsewhere on turf

1/3—Airton (good to firm) – 1/16 elsewhere on turf

 

3.40: This looks a tough race to gauge and working from a value for money perspective with nothing much else to work with, Nifty Niece will do for me to small takes from a win and place viewpoint (6/1 available with 365), especially given her record at the track.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/2 market leader duly obliged.

Each way selection to small stakes: Nifty Niece

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

2/5—Nifty Niece (2 x good) – 0/12 elsewhere

 

4.15: Fingal’s Cave appeals (7/1 generally available) as much as any other horse in the line (more so than most), albeit I would not be surprised to witness some support for Groupie later this morning.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite was beaten seven lengths when snaring the silver medal alongside a Placepot position.

Minor interest: Fingal’s Cave

Record of the five course winners in the fifth race:

1/3—Mango Chutney (good)

3/17—Bold Spirit (2 x good to soft & soft) – 2/36 elsewhere on turf

2/2—Rose Marmara (good & good to firm) – 2/20 elsewhere

2/6—Fingal’s Cave (good to firm & soft) – 3/31 elsewhere on turf

2/4—Chickenfortea (2 x good to soft) – 0/14 at other venues

 

4.45: Regular readers will know that staying events on the flat are my least favourite races, purely because speed (the fundamental requirement of a thoroughbred) is only conspicuous by its absence in general terms.  Upwards and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that Druid’s Diamond should continue to represent Mark Walford’s team to each way effect.  The best price on offer at present is 9/2 but if 5/1 was chalked up on a board in the next hour or two, I could be tempted to a win and place investment, albeit to modest stakes to what would hopefully become a ‘bet to nothing’ each way wager.

Favourite factor: This mixed vintage two mile contest was a new race on the Catterick card three years ago when the 2/1 favourite finished out of the money behind horses which filled the ‘dead eight’ frame at 12/1-7/2-7/2.   Worse was to follow twelve months on when the contest was won by a 66/1 chance with detectives still searching the area for the 11/10 market leader (last of 12 – beaten 110 lengths).  Thongs did not improve much in the most recent contest which was won an 8/1 chance.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/8—Russian Royale (good to soft)

 

5.15: Placed in five of his six assignments since scoring in fast ground at Beverley in May, Christmas Night offers consistent form, though I’ll wager that on course bookmakers will keep the Compton Place gelding at his current price (9/2) or shorter to ward off potential each way thieves. Twilight and Bee Machine are others to consider in the ‘getting out stakes’

Favourite factor: Favourites have won just two of the last nine contests, whilst two of the last three renewals were snared by 20/1 & 10/1 chances.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest in the finale:

1/2—Bee Machine (good to soft) – 0/8 elsewhere

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Today’s Nursery events:

3.55 Newbury:

An ordinary race by Newbury standards, though there is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive exchange queue for Even Keel at the time of writing, money which has not been reflected across the bookmaker boards.

7/2 could be considered as half decent value accordingly, though the breaks are well and truly on in terms of financial commitment.

 

5.50 Nottingham:

The trade press describes this as a “run of the mill” event which I would not argue against at all, though a 33/1 chance is offered to minimum each way stakes on two counts.

Nigel Tinkler has his team in great form with four of his last nine horses having been saddled to winning effect, stats which have produced 26 points of level stake profit.

Add into the factor that Nigel has scored with two of his three Nursery runners this season and you might agree that his Mayson filly Singe Du Nord is worth a small interest.

 

6.10 Ayr:

For the same (exchange) reasons relating to the first Nursery race of the day, Tobeeornottobee is considered, though no more than that at this early stage of proceedings.

 

Nursery stats this season (31 races – 243 runners – as of Tuesday morning – 7th August):

Favourite stats (33):                     

15 winners – 3 placed – 15 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/16—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/6—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/6—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/19—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/22—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

93 relevant runners: 27 winners – 20 placed – 46 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

132 runners – 27 winners – 27 placed – 78 unplaced (54.3% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

111 runners – 4 winners – 14 placed – 93 unplaced (45.7% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 19 winners – 20 placed – 75 unplaced (46.9% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 21 placed – 96 unplaced (53.1% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Iain Jardine

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Roger Fell

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Ed Dunlop

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Declan Carroll

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Richard Hughes

0/6—Tim Easterby

0/8—Mick Channon – 10/59 last year

0/10—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Kyllachy

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

12 winners—February

9—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

 

 

 

Aug 07

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 7th

Monday’s school report: 2 WINNERS at 8/1 (returned at 11/2) & 7/2 (2/1) just about made us even on the day via 13 selections (after non runners were taken into account), notwithstanding two second placed horses at 13/2 (11/4) & 11/4 (13/8) – Nearly all my ‘selections’ are being well backed which means we are not doing a lot wrong – best of luck today!

TUESDAY – Dead of Night MMA (Morning Market Assessment) report at 6.30:

CATTERICK:

3.40: Nifty Niece – 6/1 (365)

4.15: Groupie – 11/1 (Betfair)

5.15: Salazar – 12/1 (Skybet)

NEWBURY: 

2.20: Good Effect – 9/2 (365)

3.25: Rebel Assault – 9/4 (Hills)

3.55: Even Keel – 7/2 (365/BetVictor)

5.00: Sotomayor – 20/1 (PP)

NOTTINGHAM: 

5.20: Halles Harbour – 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

6.55: Side Effect – 6/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.25: Archie Perkins – 5/2 (Unibet)

8.00: Moon Song – 5/2 (Ladbrokes/BetBright)

AYR: 

6.10: Tobeeornottobee – 7/2 (Generally available)

7.50: Explain – 12/1 (Marathon)

8.20: Guvernors Choice – 11/1 (Marathon)

8.50: Eyreborn – 28/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

 

TONIGHT’S TELEVISED MATCH: NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WEST BROM – LIVE ON SKY

79/50–Nottingham Forest (Marathon)

23/10–Draw (Generally available)

21/10–West Brom (Unibet/Betfred)

Half time betting: 

9/4–Forest (Ladbrokes/Coral)

21/20–Draw (Betfred)

29/10–West Brom (Hills)

 

 

 

Aug 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 6th

Sunday’s school report:

Yesterday was much more like the old Mal having produced 3 WINNERS out of the hat at 7/1 (returned at 7/2), 11/2 (15/8) & 10/3 (5/4)…

If some of the other horses which were backed from 20/1 into 4/1, 10/1 to 4/1 & 8/1 to 9/2 had read the script, Sunday could have been an even better day.

Here’s to sunshine and winners – and lot’s more of both we hope!

 

  • Best prices for forthcoming football matches are listed below the racing offering….

 

MONDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

RIPON:

3.30: Sheepscar Lad – 11/4 (Unibet)

4.00: Harrogate – 5/2 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Mercer’s Troop – 7/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

5.00: Tajdeed – 5/1 (Hills)

CARLISLE: 

5.40: Kingstreet Lady – 8/1 (365)

6.45: John Kirkup – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

7.45: Dasheen – 7/1 (Skybet)

8.15: Rubenesque – 7/2 (365/Betfair)

WINDSOR: 

5.30: Poucor – 13/1 (Skybet)

6.00: Cedar – (Skybet)

6.30: Daschas – 9/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Boyle/BetVictor)

7.30: Doctor Wonderful – 5/1 (365/Skybet/Unibet/BetVictor)

8.00: Hulcote – 6/1 (Skybet/Unibet/BetVictor)

8.30: United Kingdom – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

NEWTON ABBOT: 

2.20: Pulling Power – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/BetVictor)

3.50: Sword Of Fate – 7/2 (PP)

 

FORTHCOMING FOOTBALL MATCHES – BEST PRICES:

TONIGHT: HULL V ASTON VILLA (CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH – LIVE RADIO COVERAGE)

2/1–Hull (365)

23/10–Draw (Generally available)

13/8–Aston Villa (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfred)

Half time betting: 

131/50–Hull (Marathon)

11/10–Draw (Skybet)

12/5–Aston Villa (Hills)

TOMORROW: NOTTINGHAM FOREST V WEST BROM – LIVE ON SKY

141/100–Nottingham Forest (Marathon)

12/5–Draw (Generally available)

12/5–West Brom (Skybet)

Half time betting: 

21/10–Forest (Generally available)

53/50–Draw (Marathon)

3/1–West Brom (Skybet/Betfair)

FRIDAY – THE OPENING PREMIER LEAGUE MATCH – MAN UTD V LEICESTER – LIVE ON SKY

1/2–Manchester United (Skybet/Black Type)

71/20–Draw (Marathon)

15/2–Leicester (Betfair/BetVictor)

Half time betting:

11/10–United (Coral)

13/10–Draw (365/10Bet)

69/10–Leicester (Marathon)