Jul 14

Daily Analysis – Saturday 14th + following days

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY 14th + following days

 

  • Latest updated Nursery facts and comment for today’s two-year-old handicap at York (5.20) can be found below Newmarket’s race by race analysis:

 

1.05: Blow By Wind was the subject of some overnight support and I make Mark Johnston’s raider the main threat to Quorto, representing value for money from a win and place perspective.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 7/1

Each way selection: Blown By Wind

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Neverland Rock (good to firm)

1/1—Quarto (good to firm)

 

1.40: Nine of the last ten winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 23 of the last 27 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last seven winners, whilst five-year-olds have snared four of the last seven contests. My quartet against the field taking into account the facts and stats comprises of Gilgamesh, Burnt Sugar, Makzeem and Love Dreams.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last fifteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on ten occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty two market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Each way selection: Burnt Sugar

Record of the six course winners in the field:

1/3—Love Dreams (soft)

1/2—Makzeem (good to soft)

1/1—Cardsharp (good)

1/2—Tupi (good to firm)

1/2—Mountain Rescue (good)

1/3—Von Blucher (good to firm)

 

2.15: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn. Limato is good on his day (won this race two year ago) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereby some of the horses towards the front of market look set to dominate, particularly the duo of Blue Point and U S Navy Flag.  If you are looking for an extreme outsider to consider, you could do worse that have an each speculative stake on Sir Dancealot.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 16 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Speculative each way selection: Sir Dancealot

Record of the three course winner in the July Cup:

1/2—Limato (good)

1/2—Sir Dancealot (good to firm)

1/2—Invincible Army (good to firm)

 

2.50: Assembly Of Truth should take the beating, with Spanish Aria proving to be the main threat in all probability. Both horses have been the subject of support overnight and if you are playing the Placepot today, I cannot visualise both runners finishing out of the frame, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured two gold and two silver medals thus far.

Win selection: Assembly Of Truth

 

3.20: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more and it’s worth noting that just 21 ‘qualifiers’ have run in total via the last five contests to produce decent priced winners at 12/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around and I prefer the chances of First Contact, Moqarran and Clubbable against the other pair, listing the trio in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Win selection:

 

3.55: 19 of the last 21 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (4/7 qualify) from my viewpoint are PERFECTION and CAVATINA.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 21 years, whilst 15/27 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

Win selection: Perfection

Record of the course winner in the sixth contest on the card:

1/2—Poetic Charm (good to firm)

 

4.30: Three-year-olds have won six of the last nine contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer. I’m taking Drill to beat Mapped in the finale.

Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 9/1, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 15/8) favourites.

Win selection: Drill

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery race today: 5.20 York – Next week’s schedules two-year-old handicaps are listed at the foot of the column with relevant stats.

5.20 York: Four newcomers in the two-year-old sector and having shown reasonable form to date, I can only report realistic exchange support for The Great Heir and Blyton in the dead of night.  I would expect the winner to emerge from this pair.

 

Nursery stats this season (8 races – 56 runners – updated from yesterday):

Favourite stats (8):

3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/3

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/6—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

24 relevant runners: 7 winners – 4 placed – 13 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

34 runners – 7 winners – 7 placed – 20 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

22 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 19 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-7

One at 9-3

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-11

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-7

One at 9-6

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Michael Bell

0/2—Tim Easterby

0/2—Philip McBride

0/3—Mick Channon

0/3—Tom Dascombe

0/3—Sylvester Kirk

0/4—Richard Hannon

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

Unplaced x 2 – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

 

Next week’s scheduled Nursery events:

Monday:

2.45 Ripon – This is a new Nursery event – no history

Tuesday:

2.45 Bath – 4/5 of the renewals have been won by market leaders.  Two of the five winners carried 9-7 to victory though conversely, the other three gold medallists carries 8-13 or less.

Wednesday:

No two-year-old handicaps scheduled

Thursday:

4.20 Leicester – Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last three winners, with Mark having two options for Thursday’s event.  Two of the four renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst the last three gold medallists carried a minimum weight of 9-4

5.55 Doncaster – All five winners have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst three market leaders have obliged to date.

Friday: 2.20 Nottingham – No details were available at the time of writing

 

 

Jul 14

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 14th + following days

Friday’s school report:

6 MMA WINNERS at 12/1 (returned at 11/1), 9/2 (7/2), 3/1 (11/4), 3/1 (same price), 5/2 (5/4) & Evens (6/5)

  • Please note that I am on holiday for a week now (just today’s Daily analysis to post on another page very soon) – though I have listed details for the whole week in this ‘edition’ – wishing you the very best of luck in running until my return….

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 8.15 am)

ASCOT:

12.45: Line Of Reason – 8/1 (Betfair/PP/BetBright)

1.20: Lord Glitters – 4/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.05: Capton – 9/1 (Skybet/Sunbets/BetBrighton/BetVictor)

CHESTER:

2.40: Peggy’s Angel – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/ Unibet)

3.15: Lake Volta – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.55: Mr Wagyu (Betfair/PP/Coral)

HAMILTON:

7.00: Muatadel – 15/2 (BetBright)

8.00: Life Knowledge – 9/2 (Generally available)

8.30: Let Life Be Done – 25/1 (Betfair/PP)

NEWMARKET:

1.05: Blown By Wind – 9/1 (Boyle/BetBright)

1.40: Burnt Sugar – 20/1 (365)

SALISBURY:

6.15: Danecase – 15/2 (BetBright)

6.45: Nawar – 11/4 (Ladbrokes)

YORK:

1.55: Muthmir – 7/2 (365/Hills/Sunbets/BetBright/BetVictor)

2.35: Time To Study – 5/1 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

4.15: Master Archer – 11/2 (Hills/888)

NEWTON ABBOT:

3.25: Southfield Vic – 11/2 (Generally available)

4.00: Sedgemore Express – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.35: Bumble Bay – 10/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle)

5.05: New Millennium – 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

 

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

5/11—France (Unibet/888)

2/1—Croatia (365/Skybet)

 

Best prices for Sunday’s Final (4.00 kick off):

19/20—France (188)

119/50—Draw (Marathon)

81/20—Croatia (Marathon)

All of the other prices for the final are included in Sunday’s details

 

TODAY’S 3RD/4TH PLAY OFF MATCH:

BELGIUM V BELGIUM – 3pm kick off

13/10—Belgium (Generally available)

14/5—Draw (Marathon)

11/5—England (Betfair)

Half time betting:

29/16—Belgium (188)

7/5—Draw (Betfair)

45/17—England (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/4–Belgium/Belgium (Bet Stars)

29/2–Belgium/Draw (188)

30/1–Belgium/England (188)

26/5–Draw/Belgium (Marathon)

11/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

73/10–Draw/England (Marathon)

25/1–England/Belgium (Skybet/188)

15/1–England/Draw (Betfair)

43/10– England/England (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

5/9 (YES) – (Sunbets)

17/10 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

151/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

8/13–2.5 goals or more (Skybet/Bet Stars)

4/7–under 3.5 goals (188)

6/4–3.5 goals or more (Generally available)

Correct scores:

7/1—1-1 draw (Bet Stars)

9/1—2-1 Belgium (Bet Stars/365)

11/1—2-1 England (365/Skybet/BetStars)

12/1—1-0 Belgium (Bet Stars)

12/1—2-2 draw (Bet Stars)

14/1—2-0 Belgium (Bet Stars/365)

14/1—1-0 England (Bet Stars/365/Betfair)

18/1—0-0 draw (Bet Stars)

20/1—2-0 England (365)

 

SUNDAY:

Aggregate stats from last year’s corresponding meetings:

23 races – 11 winning favourites – All 23 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

PERTH:         

7 races – 4 winning favourites – All 7 winners scored at a top price of 4/1

Trainer Lisa Harrison secured a 15/1 double on the card – 3 runners on Sunday: Solway Berry (2.00), Solway Lark (4.10) & Green Zone (5.15)

STRATFORD:

8 races – 5 winning favourites – All 8 winners scored at a top price of 4/1

SOUTHWELL (NH):

8 races – 2 winning favourites – All 7 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE…..

WORLD CUP FINAL:

FRANCE V CROATIA – 4pm kick off

19/20—France (188)

119/50—Draw (Marathon)

81/20—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

7/4—France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

19/20—Draw (Unibet/888)

97/20—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time/Full time odds:

9/4–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

37/2–France/Draw (188)

66/1–France/Croatia (Berfair)

19/5–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

18/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888)

10/1–Draw/Croatia (Marathon)

33/1–Croatia/France (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Coral)

19/1–Croatia/Draw (Marathon)

42/5– Croatia/Croatia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

10/7 (YES) – (Unibet/888)

13/20 (NO) – (BetVictor)

Unders/overs:

53/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

19/10–2.5 goals or more (Black Type)

2/13–under 3.5 goals (Generally available)

5/1–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/188)

Correct scores:

19/4—1-0 France (Bet Stars)

6/1—1-1 draw (365/Bet Stars/BetVictor/Sportingbet)

6/1—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888/BetVictor)

15/2—2-0 France (Bet Stars)

10/1—2-1 France (Bet Stars)

10/1—1-0 Croatia (Bet Stars)

18/1—2-1 Croatia (365/Skybet/Bet Stars)

25/1—2-2 draw (188)

28/1—2-0 Croatia (Unibet/888)

 

DETAILS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK:

 

MONDAY:

AYR:

Class 5 – All aged handicap – 6 furlongs – scheduled for 2.30:

Jim Goldie has won three of the last four renewals – 5 options

Class 5 – All aged handicap – 1 mile – scheduled for 4.40:

Six-year-olds have won 3/5 renewals – favourites on a four-timer

 

RIPON: This is a new meeting

 

WINDSOR:

2YO Novice Stakes – 6 furlongs – scheduled for 6.20

Favourite have won 3/5 renewals – alongside 20/1 & 11/1 chances

2YO Maiden – five furlongs – scheduled for 6.50

Last five winners have scored at a top price of 4/1 – includes three successful market leaders

Fillies handicap – 1 mile – scheduled for 8.50

Three-year-olds have won the last eight renewals – 3 winning favourites

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

Nothing worth mentioning in dispatches

 

TUESDAY:

BATH:

Class 5 – All aged handicap – extended 11 furlongs – schedules for 2.20

Top priced winner of 9/2 via five renewals, though we still await the first successful favourite

Nursery event – 5 furlongs – scheduled for 2.50

Favourites of one description or another have won 4/5 contests to date

Summer Sprint series – scheduled for 3.20:

Nine winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 – three winning favourites

‘Bristol Handicap’ – scheduled for 4.20

All six winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, though there is just the one successful market leader to report thus far.

 

BEVERLEY:

Ollie Pears landed a 41/1 double at the corresponding meeting last year.

 

THIRSK:

Class 5 – All aged 12 furlong handicap – scheduled for 7.10

The three winners to date have been returned at 801, 7/1 & 13/2

Class 5 – 3YO handicap – One mile – scheduled for 8.10

All four winners have carried 9-1 or less (two winning favourites)

Class 5 – 7 furlong fillies’ handicap – scheduled for 8.40

The four winners to date scored at 33/1, 17/2, 6/1 & 9/2

 

WORCESTER:

Jonjo O’Neill secured a short priced (5/1) double at this meeting at Worcester in 2017.

 

CHELMSFORD: This is a new meeting

 

WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHTS:

YARMOUTH: Two trainers landed 12/1 doubles at last year’s corresponding meeting, namely Roger Varian & David Simcock.

 

THURSDAY HIGHLIGHTS:

CHEPSTOW: Stuart Kittow was the trainer in form at last year’s corresponding fixture when landing a 13/1 double.

HAMILTON: Iain Jardine secured a 21/1 double at last year’s corresponding fixture.

 

FRIDAY:

HAYDOCK: Last year’s meeting was abandoned after the third race due to the tragic death of a stalls handler at Haydock.

NOTTINGHAM: Clive Cox secured a 21/1 double at Nottingham twelve months ago.

HAMILTON: Keith Dalglish blasted the layers via a 219/1 treble at last year’s corresponding fixture.

 

Finally, I should be back on Saturday – that’s the plan at the time of writing anyway – wishing you the very best of luck in running this week!

P.S. – It’s not all fun and games this end though, as I have to report to a hospital during the week to check for potential blood clots in my leg + injections – they won’t even allow me to enjoy a week’s holiday in peace!

 

Jul 13

Daily analysis – Friday 13th

NEWMARKET – FRIDAY

  • Not forgetting three Nursery race today – the details of which follow the race by race analysis for Newmarket…..

1.50: I suggested last year that 33/1 placed horse Swift Approval was worth chancing from an each way perspective, with the Stuart Williams raider attempting to follow up his victory in the contest the previous year.  Sure enough, Stuart goes to the well again and there seems no logical reason why his six-year-old should not go very close to winning, especially with Silvestre De Sousa in the plate.  Plenty of bookmakers are offering 4/1 at the time of writing and though only seven runners face the starter, even money a place could be tempting plenty of you to back Stuart’s raider each way this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have won, though the other 11/4 market finished out with the washing.

Win selection: Swift Approval

Record of the three course winners in the opening race:

2/3—Swift Approval (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Saluti (good to soft)

2/4—Maksab (2 x goof to firm)

 

2.25: In a race which I will always refer to as the ‘Cherry Hinton’ (apologies in place to the Duchess of Cambridge) I can impart news that Unibet should be swamped with interest in one (each way) horse this afternoon, if you take a look at the overnight activity information below. Indeed, Angels Hideaway would always have attracted my attention anyway but the odds in place demand serious win and place action from my viewpoint.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than Come On Leicester I’ll wager, though Gossamer Wings looks more of a threat from a win perspective with Aidan O’Brien chasing a hat trick in the contest this time around.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen favourites have won whilst 16/23 market leaders finished in the frame in the process.

Each way selection: Angels Hideaway

Overnight market activity:

Unibet look well over the top with their 7/1 quote about Frankie’s mount Angels Hideaway this morning…

 

3.00: Mark Johnston was denied a five-timer in the race last year whereby it would be unwise to put a line though his two 14/1 chances this morning over your favourite beverage. Indeed, the each way chances of both Communique and Poet’s Prince are respected, albeit my idea of the winner of this year’s renewal is Wissahickon who was the subject of exchange activity overnight.

Favourite factor: 11 renewals have come and gone since the last favourite obliged.  Six of the last eleven gold medallists were returned at double figure prices, ranging between 11/1 and 25/1.

Win selection: Wissahickon

Each Way savers: Your chosen Mark Johnston representive!

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Chief Ironside (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

I would be surprised if Wissahickon starts bigger than 11/4 today which was still available at the time of writing with Betfair & Paddy Power

 

3.35: Many people thought the victory of Alpha Centauri was the highlight of the week at Royal Ascot recently and it’s difficult to argue with that point of view.  Racegoers could have been forgiven if thinking that Jessica Harrington had slipped a colt into the fillies event by the way she won, notwithstanding her physique which impressed good judges in the parade ring prior to the contest. Clemmie’s course victory was gained in the ‘Duchess Of Cambridge’ on this day last year and she looks to be the only danger to the selection.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/18 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Win selection: Alpha Centauri

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Clemmie (good to firm)

 

4.10: This is something of a guessing game in all honesty and at this time of day (before the whispers have started to gain momentum), I can merely offer the fact that the only horses for semi-serious money are Mount Tabora and Art Du Val at the time of writing.  Apologies for not being of any more use early doors….

Favourite factor: Nine clear favourites and one joint favourite have won during the study period.  15/27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.  Horses starting at 16/1 or more have claimed just ten Placepot positions via 127 representatives during the study period.

 

4.45: Alan King was sweet on the chance of Elgin when interviewed on the television yesterday and there seems no reason why the relevant connections should be disappointed in this grade/company.  Hamada is the obvious potential joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket card.

Record of the three course winners in the sixth contest:

1/1—Hochfield (good to firm)

1/2—Natural Scenery (good to firm)

2/3—Fire Jet (good & good to firm)

 

5.20: Corrosive ran well enough in the ‘Brittania’ at the royal meeting a few weeks back to suggest that a similar effort could be good enough to win today.  Ripp Orf is a typical David Elsworth raider who is difficult to ignore.  It’s also reasonable to suggest that investors in Vitamin will have plenty to shout about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Although three market leaders (one being a joint favourite) have won during the last decade, it’s only right to point out that six gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 7/1 and 50/1.

Win selection: Corrosive

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/2—Roll On Rory (good to firm)

2/3—Vitamin (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Plenty of racegoers will be latching onto Corrosive at 3/1 (generally available) this morning I’ll wager in the ‘getting out stakes’ in case luck has deserted them in the first six races on the card.  If I was going to Newmarket today, I would make that move a.s.a.p. to cover any losses at the track in earlier contests…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

2.50 Ascot: Even money (Bet365 & BetVictor) is not exactly a working man’s price but that said, a winner is a winner in any language and Semoum should oblige at what is likely to be an odds on price before too long this morning I’ll wager.  It’s worth noting however that only one of the two odds on favourites in Nursery races this season, whereby ‘sensible stakes’ should be the order of the day if you do fancy George Peckham’s impressive Ripon winner.  James Watt looks to be the main threat.

4.25 York: It’s a little surprising to find 7/4 (Paddy Power) offered about Eve Johnson Houghton’s hat trick seeker Oberyn Martell this morning, despite the fact that Danny Tudhope’s mount is asked to concede between 10 and 28 pounds away (via potential jockey claims) to six rivals, the pick of which is surely Kodyanna.

7.25 Chester: Five Helmets was one of two runners for Tom Dascombe in the first Nursery of the season at Haydock last week, a race the trainer had won the previous year.  Tom’s three penultimate stage entries for that race suggested that he held those inmates in reasonable regard in this sector of the sport and there was every indication that this seventh (additional) furlong was going to suit Richard Kingscote mount.  Richard Hannon’s Brighton winner Jaayiz would probably be improving at a fair rate of knots if he should be good enough to give the selection four pounds and a beating.

 

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

 

Jul 13

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 13th

Thursday’s school report:

5 MMA WINNERS at 9/2 (returned at the same price), 4/1 (13/5), 7/2 (5/2), 3/1 (5/2) & 11/4 (6/4).

We continue to knock on the door all too often with another five selections finishing second yesterday, including those at 7/1 (13/8), 7/1 (6/1) & 5/2 (11/10).

Others finished out of the frame despite backed from 22/1 to 12/1, 13/2 (3/1), 9/2 (2/1) & 11/4 (11/10).

 

APPROXIMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00: ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 6 ADDITIONS

 

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

CHEPSTOW:

6.10: Living Leader – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetBright)

7.15: Edged Out – 9/2 (Generally available)

7.45: Trotter – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.15: Rastacap – 3/1 (Generally available)

8.50: Petrify – 11/2 (BetBright)

Additional Chepstow entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

CHESTER:

5.50: My Amigo – 7/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Piedita – 9/2 (Betfair/PP)

9.00: Socialites Red – 14/1 (Generally available)

Additional Chester entry at 8.00:

7.55: Zoffalee – 11/1 (Betway/BetVictor)

 

ASCOT:

2.50: Semoum – Evens (365/BetVictor)

3.25: Alqamar – 9/2 (PP/Unibet/Boyle/BetVictor)

4.00: Made Up – 5/2 (365)

4.35: Miracle Of Medinah – 15/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.10: Simpson – 17/2 (Unibet)

5.40: Bronze Angel – 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Ascot entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

YORK:

2.05: Diamond Oasis – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.40: Mukhayyam – 5/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Could It Be Love – 5/2 (Betfair/PP)

Additional York entries at 8.00:

3.50: Pioneering – 12/1 (Generally available)

4.25: Big Ace – 8/1 (Generally available)

5.00: Angel Force – 18/1 (Ladbrokes/Unibet)

 

NEWMARKET:

2.25: Angels Hideaway – 7/1 (Unibet)

3.00: Wissahickon – 11/4 (Betfair/PP)

5.20: Corrosive – 3/1 (Generally available)

Additional Newmarket entries at 8.00:

4.10: Art Du Val – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.45: Hamada – 3/1 (Generally available)

 

FFOS LAS (NH):

8.05: Court Duty – 11/4 (Generally available)

8.40: Dgentle Reflexion – 5/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Uni/BetVictor)

Additional Ffos Las entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN THE TROPHY OUTRIGHT – UPDATED ODDS – FRIDAY MORNING:

40/85—France (Bet Stars)

23/12—Croatia (188)

 

REMAINING MATCHES – FRIDAY MORNING ODDS:

THE FINAL – SUNDAY – 4.00pm

19/20—France (Black Type)

47/20—Draw (Marathon)

41/10—Croatia (Hills/Betfair)

 

3RD/4TH PLACE GAME – SATURDAY – 3.00pm

23/20—Belgium (Hills/Black Type)

141/50—Draw (Marathon)

12/5—England (Marathon)

Jul 12

Daily analysis – Thursday 12th

NEWMARKET – JULY 12

 

Historical facts about this meeting (seven year study):

51 races – 11 winning favourites – 48/51 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last seven years:

6 winners—John Gosden (14/1, 4/1, 3/1, 9/4, 2/1** & 11/10*) – 8 runners today: First Eleven (1.50), Elgends Of War (2.25), Jawwaal (3.00), Muntahaa & Raa Aroll (3.35), Handmaiden (4.10) & Purser & Emeraaty (4.45)

 

Out of interest, last year’s 3 day corresponding meeting stats were as follows:

22 races – 5 winning favourite (of which Aidan O’Brien saddled three) – All 22 winenrs scored at a top price of 12/1.  Aside from Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby (9/2, 7/2, 3/1 & 11/10*) ruled the roost with four winners.

 

Newmarket (July course) stats this season:

43 races – 14 winning favourites – 42/43 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer this season:

5/24—Richard Hannon (7/1, 13/2. 5/2*, 6/4* & 11/8*) – 3 runners today: Buridan & Embour (3.00) & Tangled (4.45)

 

1.50: John Gosden has saddled four of the last six winners when represented, with John having declared First Eleven on this occasion. Thirteen renewals had slipped past since John scored with his 1997 winner Three Cheers before the recent gold medallists got John’s name back on the board in no uncertain terms. Loxley is a serious threat on this occasion however.

Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 years. 14 of the 24 favourites have finished in the frame during the study period. 15 winners have scored at odds of 8/1 or less during the last 16 years.

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Global Giant (good to firm)

1/1—Loxley (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

The front pair in the market look set to dominate when betting on the track opens today, with Loxley just edging the proceedings at 7/2 in terms of popularity/value for money early doors…

 

2.25: LEGENDS OF WAR is taken to beat Advertise especially at the overnight price of 5/2 which quickly disappeared by those of us who are stricken by insomnia.  Sometimes it pays to be afflicted with ailments!

Favourite factor: 13 of the 24 favourites have secured win and place positions during the last 19 years, statistics which include four gold medallists.

Win selection: Legends Of War

Overnight market activity:

It’s a similar scenario in the second race with Legends Of War probably proving the more popular at 9/4 when the offices open later this morning

 

3.00: Eleven renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event, the gold medallists during those years being returned at 40/1-25/1-12/1-12/1–11/1-17/2-8/1-7/1-7/1-7/1-13/2, an average price of 19/2 during the last eleven years.  Thirteen winners during the last fifteen years have carried a maximum weight of 9-5 which eliminates the top pair in the handicap from my viewpoint.  Trainer ‘mentaility’ fascinates yours truly, which is one of the biggest understatements I have written in these daily columns in the last eighteen years.  Richard Hannon is the leading trainer at the venue this season and his three runners today are all (good to firm) course winners, among just nine on the entire card.  Richards saddled two of them against each other here which is a little frustrating, though both BURIDAN and EMBOUR are offered each way chances at the very least.  Both horses are drawn high which has been an advantage in this race of late.  Tribal Quest and Stormbringer will rightly have their fair share of supporters in an intriguing three-year-old contest.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the study period, whilst 10 of the 23 market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 21 years.  

Win selection: Buridan

Each way alternative option: Embour

Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

1/1—Embour (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There is plenty of money for several runners in this field though Jawwall looks as solid as any around the 7/1 mark

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals of this twelve furlong Group 2 event with just three of the seven entries made up from the relevant vintage this time around.  Mirage Dancer is taken to get the better of Laraaib at the business end of proceedings. For the record, Sir Michael Stoute (Mirage Dancer) has saddled fifteen winners since the end of May via a 25% strike rate, these months offering some of the hardest race to win during the entire year.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have scored in the last 20 years though eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/1 during the last decade.

 

4.10: This is probably as difficult for punters as any race which will be contested over the three days of the July meeting. At least three experienced horse could prove good enough, accompanied by two likely looking newcomers in Wingreen and Yourtimeisnow.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this event during the last sixteen years.

 

4.45: Tangled is Richard Hannon’s third and final runner on the card and for reasons stated earlier in this analysis, Tom Marquand’s mount is given a sporting each way chance at 66/1 today!  WHITE MOCHA is another outsider that could outrun his odds in an interesting contest.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged via five renewals thus far during which time, the biggest priced winner was sent off at 7/1.

Each way selection: White Mocha

Outrageous option: Tangled

Record of the two course winners in the sixth race:

1/1—Naval Intelligence (good to firm)

1/2—Tangled (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Bookmakers are united right across the board relating to their 9/2 quote about Symbolization, not seemingly wanting to offer punters a 5/1 ‘bet to nothing’ option in the contest

 

5.20: The each way chance for last year’s winner SHAMSHON is there for all to see, albeit the seven-year-old appears to have lost his way of late.  That said, Shamshon runs off a seven pound lower mark than was the case twelve months ago, notwithstanding the fact that Stuart Williams has booked a seven pound claimer for good measure.  Effectively therefore, last year’s winner is carrying a stone less which suggests that he might only need to be 95% back to his best to score!  I would certainly advise an each way saver at 16/1 this morning.  Form students might prefer the chance of Leo Minot the other end of the market as they peruse today’s opening card of what is always a fascinating meeting.

Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last decade have scored at 12/1 or less, statistics which include three (9/2, 9/2 & 9/4) winning favourites.

Each way selection: Shamshon

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/1—Leo Minor (good to firm)

1/3—Compas Scoobie (good to soft)

1/2—Shasshon (good)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

The next Nursery races are scheduled for Friday: 2.50 Ascot – 4.25 York – 7.25 Chester

Nursery stats this season (5 races – 38 runners):

Favourite stats (5):

2 winners & 3 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

1/2

Winning trainers:

1/1—David Evans (11/4*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/4—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Mark Johnston (4/7)

Stats of first three in the betting:

15 relevant runners: 4 winners – 2 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

23 runners – 4 winners – 5 placed – 14 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

15 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 13 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-12

One at 8-8

One at 7-9

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—John Gallagher

0/1—William Haggas

0/2—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Stan Moore

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Joseph Tuite

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Fahey

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (5 races – 37 horses – 38 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – North Korea (65)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Essenza (67)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – Tarrzan (71)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 12

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 12th

Wednesday’s school report:

4 MMA WINNERS at 5/1 (returned at 5/4), 4/1 (6/4), 11/4 (same price) & 13/8 (15/8) + three seconds (as is common place of late) at 12/1, 11/2 & 4/1

 

APPROXIMATE SUNDAY TIMELINE:

4.00: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 4 ADDITIONS

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

CARLISLE:

2.40: Why We Dream – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.15: Koduro – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.50: Ghayadh – 4/1 (Generally available)

4.25: Pea Shooter – 11/1 (365/Sunbets/Unibet/BetVictor)

5.00: Nuns Walk – 7/1 (Generally available)

5.35: Roys Dream – 7/2 (365)

Additional Carlisle entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

DONCASTER:

2.15: Tyrell – 11/4 (Betfair/PP)

4.35: Iconioc Knight – 5/2 (Skybet)

5.10: Past Master – 3/1 (Generally available)

5.45: Arcadian Angel – 13/2 (Generally available)

Additional Doncaster entry at 8.30:

4.00: Affina – 5/2 (Generally available)

 

EPSOM:

6.35: Berkshire Spirit – 9/2 (Generally available)

7.10: Triple First – 22/1 (Generally available)

8.10: Seprani – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Epsom entries at 8.30:

7.40: Corazon Espinado – 9/4 (Hills)

8.45: Careyanne – 11/4 (Hills)

 

NEWBURY:

8.00: Monoxide – 7/2 (Ladbrokes/365)

9.05: Nicklaus – 3/1 (Ladbrokes/Unibet/BetBright)

Additional Newbury entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

NEWMARKET:

1.50: Loxley – 7/2 (Unibet/Boyle)

2.25: Legends Of War – 9/4 (Betfair/PP)

3.00: Jawwaal – 7/1 (Generally available)

4.45: Symbolization – 9/2 (Generally available)

Additional Newmarket entry at 8.30:

5.20: Shamshon – 14/1 (Generally available)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE (BEST PRICES- THURSDAY MORNING):

TO WIN THE TROPHY OUTRIGHT:

10/21—France (Unibet/888)

23/12—Croatia (188)

 

REMAINING MATCHES:

THE FINAL – SUNDAY – 4.00pm

Evens—France (Black Type)

58/25—Draw (Marathon)

4/1—Croatia (Hills/Betfair)

 

3RD/4TH PLACE GAME – SATURDAY – 3.00pm

11/8—Belgium (Betway)

14/5—Draw (Black Type)

9/4—England (365/Sportingbet)

Jul 11

Daily analysis – Tuesday 11th

CATTERICK – JULY 11

 

  • All the Nursery stats/facts/comment can be found below Catterick’s race by race analysis – best of luck today guys…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 4/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 2/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2014: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 7/1 or less

Totals:

37 races – 16 winning favourites – 36/37 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

Four trainers saddled a trio of winners during the period, the pick of which could arguably be Mark Johnston (9/1, 5/1 & 11/10*) who secured a 20/1 double on last year’s corresponding card.  Mark saddles two runners this afternoon, namely Prairie Spy (3.10) & Kittileo (4.10)

Leading represented trainers this season:

4/19—Richard Fahey (10/1, 6/1, 9/4* & 2/1*) – 1 runner: Essenza (3.10)

2/5—Ann Duffield (50/1 & 5/2) – 1 runner: Symphonic (4.45)

 

2.10: Associate Rock is beginning to attract bits and pieces of money in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges and it’s worth noting that Amy Murphy has moved back up on trip with her Society Rock Raider.

Favourite factor: Although two of the seven races to date have been won by market leaders, yours year have slipped by since the last favourite prevailed.

Each way selection: Associate Rock

 

2.40: Horatio Star’s debut effort went into the notebook a few weeks back and it is interesting to see Brian Meehan saddling his Mount Nelson gelding at this venue which has not been kind to his team (3/37) down the years.  Conversely, Owen Burrows has won with one of just two runners at the track and Owen’s declaration of Mutanaqel warrants respect accordingly.

Favourite factor: Four of the last five favourites have won whilst the other gold medallist during the period was sent off at just 11/8.

 

3.10: Please refer to my Nursery notes below.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame.  New readers might like to note that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot & each way perspectives.

 

3.40: Unbeaten course winner (albeit via just the one assignment at Catterick) Iron Sky is the call in another trappy race on the card, whilst stable companion Kirbec has a chance of finishing in the frame at a double figure price.  Montague must surely go close but at 2/1, though I would rather let the Poets Voice colt win than become a player at those odds.  Tim Easterby (May Symphonic) throws the proverbial spanner in the works given that the stable has won this event with its last two runners via the relevant trio of renewals.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won four of the last six contests whilst five gold medallists scored at a top price of 7/2 during the period.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Iron Sky (good)

 

4.10: Sometimes you have to look behind the scenes and discover stats which are not always staring you in the face.  Yes I have revealed (below) That Italian Riviera has won three of his five race here at Catterick, though further investigation tells us that Ken Slack’s consistent performer has also snared gold on two of his three races under the NH code at this venue!  What adds further confidence is that trainers have missed an ‘edge’ here, as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, yet vintage representatives are only conspicuous by their absence this time around.

Favourite factor: Another good race for punters in recent years as four of the last six renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight winners scored at 5/1 or less.

Win selection: Italian Riviera

Record of the course winner in the field:

3/5—Italian Riviera (2 x good & soft)

 

4.45: It defies belief at times some of the reports you read in the trade press (at just £2.90 a copy!) as the comment for this race is that trainer Geoff Harker has his team in good form.  I appreciate this this type of comment is open to personal interpretation but win, lose or draw today, I don’t consider 3/37 stats under this code since February as being particularly attractive.  Upwards and onward however, by suggesting that Rebel State and Size Matters should give Geoff’s Extrasolar something to think about at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Market leaders come to the gig on a hat trick.

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event on the card:

1/11—Deben (good)

1/4—Tom’s Anna (good to firm)

 

5.15: Ladbrokes were (unusually) out on a limb by offering 9/2 about Perfect Thought in the dead of night and though the price has been trimmed to 4/1 in the interim period, the probability factor of 20% still undermines his chance from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The finale is a new race on the Catterick card

Win selection: Perfect Thought

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today: 3.10 Catterick & 4.00 Lingfield

3.20: Catterick:

Mark Johnston won a Nursey event with a top weight yesterday and Prairie Spy should similarly be up to repeating the feat on behalf of the stable in this grade/company.  The fact that Mark secured the first victory in the race twelve months ago adds confidence. That all said, Essenza is Richard Fahey’s only runner on the card which is unusual to say the least whereby little can be taken for granted, especially in an event restricted to fillies.

4.00: Lingfield:

Mark Johnston is also represented in the other two-year-old handicap today, albeit from the bottom of the handicap this time around.  Al Manhala is the relevant entry, thought the stable might have to settle for the silver medal here with FREE LOVE having been declared. Tom Clover saddles his first Nursery runner of the season and Tom’s Equiano filly is the horse to beat from my viewpoint.

 

Nursery stats this season (3 races – 25 runners):

Favourite stats (3):

1 win & 2 unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

9 relevant runners: 2 winners – 1 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

14 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 9 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-9

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Ralph Beckett

0/1—Michael Bell

0/1—Declan Carroll

0/1—Mick Channon

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Tim Easterby

0/1—Richard Fahey

0/1—William Haggas

0/1—Sylvester Kirk

0/1—Jamie Osborne

0/1—Kevin Ryan

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—Richard Spencer

0/1—Stuart Williams

0/2—Tom Dascombe

0/2—Richard Hannon

0/2—Philip McBride

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018 – 24 horses – 25 runners)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win—Octave (86)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

 

 

 

 

 

Jul 11

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 11th

Tuesday’s school report:

Mal’s haul on Tuesday: 5 WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 2/1), 11/2 (7/2), 5/1 (11/4), 7/2 (11/4) & 11/4 (7/4) good enough – but add the 7 second placed horses and you can understand why I was still frustrated with the day’s work!

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:                                                

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE

NO MMA UPDATE TODAY UNFORTUNATELY – 7.40 DOCTOR/HOSPITAL APPOINTMENT….

Best of luck today guys – hoping to be back with you tomorrow

 

Tuesday’s school report:

Mal’s haul on Tuesday: 5 WINNERS at 11/2 (returned at 2/1), 11/2 (7/2), 5/1 (11/4), 7/2 (11/4) & 11/4 (7/4) good enough – but add the 7 second placed horses and you can understand why I was still frustrated with the day’s work!

 

APPROXIMATE WEDNESDAY TIMELINE:                                                

5.15: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE   – DONE   

NO MMA UPDATE TODAY UNFORTUNATELY – 7.40 DOCTOR/HOSPITAL APPOINTMENT….

 

WEDNESDAY:

‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

BATH:

6.40: Dandilion – 11/2 (Sunbets/BetBright)

7.10: Kilagia – 13/8 (Generally available)

8.10: Secretfact – 5/1 (BetBright)

 

CATTERICK:

2.40: Horatio Star – 4/1 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

5.15: Perfect Thought – 9/2 (Ladbrokes)

 

LINGFIELD:

2.30: Full Suit – 4/1 (Hills/PP)

3.30: Buthelezi – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.00: North Korea – 11/4 (365)

4.35: Prince Of Rome – 3/1 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

 

YARMOUTH:

3.50: Valcartier – 10/3 (365/Coral/Betway/BetVictor)

4.20: Gratified – 9/2 (365/Hills/BetVictor)

5.25: Chetan – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

 

KEMPTON (Some each way plays to moderate stakes to consider):

6.25: Ross Raith Rover – 16/1 (365/BetVictor)

6.55: Landue – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.25: Across The Sea – 6/1 (Generally available)

7.55: Ardamar – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

8.25: Long John Silver – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8.55: Little Palaver – 11/2 (BB)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

4/6—France (Generally available)

45/17—England (10Bet)

6/1—Croatia (BetVictor)

 

TONIGHT’S MATCH:

ENGLAND V CROATIA – 7pm kick off

11/8—England (Betfair/Betway)

11/5—Draw (Sunbets/Betfair/Betfred)

137/50—Croatia (Marathon)

Half time betting:

11/5—England (Betfair)

20/21—Draw (Betfred)

18/5—Croatia (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

8/13—England (Generally available)

17/12—Croatia (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

56/19–England/England (Unibet/888)

17/1–England/Draw (188/BetVictor)

51/1–England/Croatia (888)

19/4–Draw/England (Unibet/888)

17/5–Draw/Draw (Unibet/888/BetVictor)

73/10–Draw/Croatia (Marathon)

35/1–Croatia/England (888)

16/1–Croatia/Draw (Generally available)

111/20– Croatia/Croatia (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

15/13 (YES) – (10Bet)

31/40 (NO) – (BetVictor/)

Unders/overs:

4/7–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

41/25–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/5–under 3.5 goals (Unibet/888/Bet Stars)

17/4–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor)

Correct scores:

11/2—1-1 draw (Bet Stars/Sportingbet)

6/1—1-0 England (Bet Stars)

13/2—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888/188)

8/1—1-0 Croatia (Generally available)

10/1—2-0 England (365/Bet Stars)

10/1—2-1 England (365/Bet Stars)

14/1—2-1 Croatia (365)

18/1—2-0 Croatia (365/Bet Stars)

20/1—2-2 draw (365/Bet Stars)

25/1—3-0 England (Bet Stars)

25/1—3-1 England (Bet Stars)

 

 

 

Jul 10

Daily Analysis – Tuesday 10th

 

PONTEFRACT – JULY 10

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 14/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2013: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 16 winning favourites – 34/35 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Richard Fahey (6/1, 5/1 & 9/4*) – 2 runners: Danehill Desert (2.30) & Private Matter (3.30)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

5/21—Richard Fahey (16/1, 7/2, 7/2**, 3/1* & 11/4) – 2 runners (as above)

3/12—Kevin Ryan (6/1, 5/1 & 10/3) – 1 runner: Ahian Bil Emarti (2.00)

 

2.00: Please see the Nursery details below for nominating Red Hut Red over Octave this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have won via the last seven renewals

Win selection: Red Hut Red

Overnight market activity: Red Hut Red was still available at 10/3 with Hills at the time of writing – shorter elsewhere….

 

2.30: Danehill Desert and Palmer are my pair against the field, given the trainer Kevin Ryan swerves the race having secured four victories from as many runners during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won every other year during the last decade though the favourite is set to miss out this time around if you believe in trends of that extreme!   

Overnight market activity:

Nothing to report

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals and Shenanigans and Paco’s Angel should extend the run between them on behalf of the vintage.  That said, it’s worth noting the market activity mentioned below for the only older horse in the field.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won three of the last seven contests.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

1/1—Isabella (good)

1/1—Pattie (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking bundles of liquidity but Promising Run was the horse for money overnight

 

3.30: David O’Meara has a few chances on the card with Watchable arguably be the best of them today, especially with six of the last seven winners having carried weights of 9-5 or more.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 7/2 favourite was the only market leader to oblige since 2008.

Each way selection: Watchable

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

3/7—Highly Sprung (3 x good to firm)

2/14—Mr Orange (good & good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

There has been some money for Watchable over the hour or two…

 

4.00: Along with fellow Godolphin raider Promising Run earlier on the card, Recordman boasts claims here, though Roger Charlton’s Frankel colt Herculean should really be winning this contest if he is to fulfil expectations.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

Overnight market activity:

None of note

 

4.30: A couple of each way types create some interest in the contest, listing Archie Perkins ahead of Mearing from a value for money perspective.

Favourite factor: Market leaders secured a hat trick between 2013/15 but the last two jollies have been turned over in races won by 6/1 and 15/8 chances.

Each way selection: Archie Perkins

Overnight market activity:

Archie Perkins should never have been a 14/1 chance in my book – as short as 9/1 with Skybet in the last few minutes having been 14/1 with them as well as 365/Betway/BetVictor earlier this morning.  14/1 is still available if you’re quick!

 

5.00: Seven pound claimer Oliver Stammers have ridden five winners via a 16% strike rate which gives Firfinleu an edge in a race I might otherwise have swerved.  The overnight money for Mark Johnston’s raider adds some confidence with the trainer being well known for taking advantage of a decent claim for a rider who has already bagged a handful of winners.

Favourite factor: The inaugural market leader scored at 7/4 but subsequent gold medallists have posted victories at 12/1 & 8/1.

Win selection: Forfinleu

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/3—Alfred Richardson (good to firm)

2/4—Quoteline Direct (2 x good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Firlinfeu was the only horse for money during the dead of night, albeit to moderate liquidity

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

 

 

 

 

Jul 10

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 10th

Monday’s school report:

3 MMA winners yesterday at 6/1 (returned at 17/2), 9/2 (11/4) & 9/2 (7/2)

 

APPROXIMATE MONDAY TIMELINE:                                                      

5.30 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

5.45: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

8.30: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE with 6 additions

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.30 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BRIGHTON:

5.40: Scenery 5/1 (Generally available)

6.40: Kachumba11/2 (Hills/Betfair/BetBright)

7.10: Arctic Sea8/1 (BetBright)

Additional Brighton entry at 8.30:

8.10: Wear It Well – 8/1 (365)

 

PONTEFRACT:

2.00: Red Hut Red – 10/3 (Hills)

3.00: Promising Run – 3/1 (Unibet)

5.00: Firlinfeu – 3/1 (Unibet)

Additional Pontefract entries at 8.30:

2.30: Danehill Dseert – 4/1 (Generally available)

3.30: Watchable – 6/1 (365)

4.30: Archie Perkins – 14/1 365/Betway/BetVictor)

 

UTTOXETER:

9.00: Zebi Boy – 7/2 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Uttoxeter entries at 8.30:

7.30: Icefall – 13/2 (Betfair)

8.00: Desert Retreat – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

1.45: Invisible Ridge – 9/1 (Betfair)

2.15: Theatre Of War – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.45: Pablow – 22/1 (365)

3.45: Global Spirit – 17/2 (Sunbets)

4.15: Lunar Corona – 11/2 (365/BetVictor)

5.15: Tobruk – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Wolverhampton entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

2/1—France (Generally available)

11/4—Emgland (Boyle/Black Type/Bet Stars/10Bet)

14/5—Belgium (Bet Stars, Sportingbet & 188))

5/1—Croatia (Skybet/10Bet)

 

TONIGHT’S MATCH:

FRANCE V BELGIUM – 7pm kick off

157/10—France (Marathon)

12/5—Draw (BetVictor)

11/5—Belgium (188)

Half time betting:

9/4—France (188)

11/10—Draw (365/Skybet)

29/10—Belgium (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

4/9—France (Generally available)

47/23—Belgium (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

16/5–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Boyle/Unibet/188)

16/1–France/Draw (Skybet/188)

35/1–France/Belgium (Unibet/888/188)

21/4–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

17/4–Draw/Draw (BetVictor)

13/2–Draw/Belgium (Unibet/888)

33/1–Belgium/France (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Belgium/Draw (Skybet/Hills/BetVictor)

9/2– Belgium/Belgium (Boyle)

Both teams to score:

17/20 (YES) – (Bet Stars)

11/10 (NO) – (BetVictor/Hills)

Unders/overs:

83/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

57/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/3–under 3.5 goals (Unibet/888)

14/5–3.5 goals or more (Bet Stars)

Correct scores:

6/1—1-1 draw (Bet Stars/)

15/2—1-0 France (Generally available)

9/1—0-0 draw (Bet Stars/888)

9/1—1-0 Belgium (Bet Stars/365/Unibet/888)

10/1—2-1 France (Bet Stars)

11/1—2-1 Belgium (365/Bet Stars)

12/1—2-0 France (Generally available)

15/1—2-2 draw (Bet Stars)

33/2—2-0 Belgium (188)

 

Jul 09

Daily analysis – Tuesday 9th

WINDSOR – JULY 9

 

  • Latest Nursery updated stats and early thoughts on tomorrow’s relevant Pontefract event can be found after today’s race by race Windsor analysis.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2016: 5/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2015: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2014: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2013: 2/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 12 winning favourites – 32/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

3 winners—Clive Cox (7/1, 15/8* & 13/8*) – 1 runner: King’s Slipper (8.10)

 

Leading represented trainer this season:

7/45—Richard Hannon (8/1 (three times), 5/1*, 3/1, 2/1* & 4/9*) – 5 runners: Swiper (6.10), Sotomayor (6.40), Motown Mick (7.10), Fanfair (7.40) & Anchises (8.10)

 

5.40: Nine of the ten winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date, whilst only three four-year-olds have been declared despite vintage representatives have secured seven victories to date. Letmestopyouthere and Impart should run well on behalf of the vintage, whilst Aguerooo completes my trio against the remaining ten contenders.

Favourite factor: Eight years have slipped by the since the last favourite obliged though that said, every subsequent winner has scored at 10/1 or less.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/3—Picket Line (good)

1/7—Pretty Bubbles (good to firm)

2/14—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)

1/6—Pharoh Jake (soft)

Overnight market activity:

The 11/2 quote for Aguerooo by four leading firms at the time of writing is not expected to last long according to the gospel of yours truly; win, lose or draw.

 

6.10: Brian Meehan’s Zebedee colt BOA NOVA contested the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot a few weeks ago and though asked to concede seven pounds to his rivals here, 11/2 (in a place) looks a tad too big from my viewpoint, especially as trainer Brian Meehan does not go to war at the big meeting very often aside from Pattern and handicap events for older horses.  That all said, the chances of Swiper and Glorious Lover are also respected.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market lost out by the minimum margin.

Win selection: Boa Nova (to moderate stakes)

Overnight market activity:

Although the swing could move both ways, it could be worth taking a chance on the 11/2 offered by Betfair this morning relating to the chance of Boa Nova.

 

6.40: The exchanges are suggesting that there will not be a great deal between Sotomayor and Star Of Zaam, either in the market and/or in the subsequent contest. A quick check of the favourite factor stats below will enlighten your knowledge in terms of which way you play the race.

Favourite factor: Favourites have a fine record here having gained four gold medals and one of the silver variety via just the five contests to date.

 

7.10: Kevin Ryan has a few runners on the card and it could be that his Society Rock gelding How Bizarre will make Brigand pull out all the stops at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Three of the last four favourites have prevailed.

Each way selection (to a fashion): How Bizaare

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/2—Motown Mick (good to soft)

 

7.40: Fanfair (each way) and El Borracho would be my chosen pair against the field, though not enough to prize my wallet out of hibernation.

Favourite factor: All manner of results have been recorded whereby any area of the market could provide the winner.

 

8.10: High in numbers but short on potential winners, this race will not take a great deal of winning, with King’s Slipper and Anchises expect to dominate close home.  For the record, the pair is listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

 

8.40: Bayshore Freeway could send punters home happy with Mark Johnston’s team in good from at present.  Mark only sent two three-year-old handicappers to Windsor last year (both beaten) which is something of a surprise but if my selection scores tonight, we can expect plenty of relevant inmates to make the long journey over the next four months or so.

Favourite factor: Although only one favourite has won via six renewals to date, five gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 7/2.

Win selection: Bayshore Freeway

Overnight market activity:

Bayshore Freeway is currently on offer at 7/2 (generally available) but I expect Mark Johnston’s raider to attract plenty of support, especially with Frannie Norton having made the journey…

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Next Nursery event – Tuesday – 2.00 Pontefract:

Early thoughts:

Solesmes has been left on the same (69) mark as when contesting the first Nursery event of the season last week in which she was beaten over eight lengths – which surely goes against her chance here.

William Haggas produced a 5/15 ratio in this sector of the sport last year which bodes well for Red Hut Red. It’s interesting to note that William’s Kodiac filly was only beaten a length on her second start – by the winner of the first Nursery event this year at Haydock last week.

Octave’s high rating is based on a debut win on Lingfield’s (A/W) surface and although Mark Johnston’s Albany Stakes runner has dropped several rungs on the ladder to contest this event, I would not want to be taking too short a price giving lumps of weight away, judged on the first pair of two-year-old handicap results thus far.

 

Nursery stats this season (2 races – 21 runners):

Favourite stats (2):

Both unplaced

Winning trainers:

1/1—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourites:

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

6 relevant runners: 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

10 runners – 1 winner – 3 placed – 6 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

11 runners – 1 winner – 1 placed – 9 unplaced

Weights carried by successful horses:

One at 9-0

One at 8-8

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

One at 9-6

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON (2018)

1 win – Buckingham (off an official rating of 76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

Placed – Finoah (78)           

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87)

Placed – Leoube (66)

Placed – Nayslayer (69)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Camachess (69)

Unplaced – Dancing Speed (70)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don Armado (78)

Unplaced – Five Helmets (68)     

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Nakaande (82)

Unplaced – Solesmes (69)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Ventura Bay (68)

After Tuesday, there are two scheduled Nursery event on Wednesday at Catterick and Lingfield.

 

 

 

 

Jul 09

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 9th

Sunday’s school report….

6 MMA runners Sunday – 3 WINNERS at `14/1 – 15/2 – 7/2.

The three horses were backed into 6/1, 7/2 & 5/4 respectively – where else?

 

  • Apologies for the delay in the updates – still suffering…

 

MONDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

AYR:

2.30: Vallarta – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.05: Faithful Promise – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.05: Whatsthemessage – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.40: Four Kingdoms – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/Coral)

5.45: Robben Rainbow – 5/2 (Betfair/Sunbets/PP)

Additional Ayr entries at 10.00:

2.00: Royal Big Night – 7/2 (Generally available)

3.35: Soldiers Minute – 5/1 (Generally available)

 

RIPON:

7.00: Edgar Allan Poe – 9/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Me Before You – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Ripon entry at 10.00:

7.30: The Lincoln Lawyer – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

 

WINDSOR:

5.40: Aguerooo – 11/2 (365/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

6.10: Boa Nova – 8/1 (Ladbrokes)

8.40: Bayshore Freeway – 7/2 (Generally available)

Additional Windsor entry at 10.00:

7.40: Tripartite – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

WORCESTER:

4.25: Gang Warfare – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

5.00: Balkinstown – 8/1 (PP)

Additional Worcester entry at 10.00:

3.25: Play The Ace – 6/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.55: Tommy Hallinan – 7/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Sportingbet)

5.30: Gday Aussie – 28/1 (365)

 

WOLVERHAMPTON:

2.40: Danish Duke – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

4.15: Be Bold – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

Additional Wolverhampton entries at 10.00:

3.45: Kroy – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.50: Dubai Flame – 7/1 (BetBright)

5.55: Silver Character – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

BEST PRICES ON MONDAY MORNING TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

2/1–France (Generally available)

11/4–England (365/Boyle/Bet Stars)

14/5–Belgium (188)

5/1–Croatia (Betfair/Unibet/Betfred) – Yesterday’s 6/1 (Black Type) which I highlighted has all gone….

 

Scheduled matches:

Tuesday (7.00 kick off):

17/11–France (10Bet) – 79/100 to reach the final (Marathon)

57/25–Draw (Marathon)

11/5–Belgium (Betfair/Unibet/Betfred) – 7/6 to reach the final (188)

 

Wednesday (7.00 kick off):

11/8–England (Betfair/Sunbets/Black Type/Bet Stars) – 4/6 to reach the final (Generally)

111/50–Draw (Marathon)

13/5–Croatia (Betfred/Betway) – 15/11 to reach the final (188)

Jul 08

Daily analysis – Sunday 8th

AYR – SUNDAY JULY 8  

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 5/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 15/2 or less

2016: 1/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 1/8 races were won by favourites – All 8 winners scored at 12/1 or less

2014: 2/8 races were won by favourites – 8/9 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 12/1 or less

Totals:

38 races (39 winners via one dead heat) – 12 winning favourites – All 39 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

6 winners—Keith Dalgleish (12/1, 9/1, 8/1, 5/1, 4/1 & 13/8*) – 10 runners today: Universal Gleam (1.30), Home Before Duck, Rock N Rolla & Corton Lad (2.00), Guillin Hills (2.30), Alabanza (3.05), War Department (3.35), Dark Profit (4.05) & Forever A Lady & Inglorious (4.40)

 

Leading represented trainer THIS SEASON:

6/43—Jim Goldie (16/1, 16/1, 11/2, 7/2, 7/2* & 3/1*) – 7 runners today: Testa Rossa (2.00), Rioja Day (3.05), Strong Steps (3.35), Nicholas T (4.05), Tommy G (4.40) & Brendan & Fintry Flyer (5.10)

 

Apologies Guys – this is all I have to offer this morning due to illness and a desperate need to have as quiet a day as possible – catch you tomorrow, hoping that you back lots of winners…

Jul 08

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 8th

Saturday school report:

If the previous day was Golden Friday, yesterday was ‘Sodding Saturday’ because 10 (yes ten) second placed horses frustrated the life out of us if being honest despite 3 MMA WINNERS at 11/1 (returned at 10/1), 11/2 (13/8) & 9/2 (7/4).  The placed horses included those at 10/1 (3/1) which as you can see my the way they were backed, was jaw dropping for all the wrong reasons!

Then there was my 20/1 call Harkbill in the ‘Eclipse’ which was backed down to 8/1 before giving it his best shot….

Upwards and onward but after another rough night on the sleep/illness front, there will be just one 6.45 offering of the MMA service today, whilst my World Cup (5.30 am) observations can be found  below.

Hope your luck much was better than mine yesterday – good fortune today guys……

 

SUNDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.45 am)

AYR:        

2.00: Rock N Rolla – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/CVroal/Hills/NBetBright/10Bet)

2.30: Cuillin Hills – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills)

4.40: Smugglers Creek – 15/2 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Marathon/10Bet/BetVictor)

5.10: Lexington Place – 7/2 (365)

MARKET RASEN:

4.20: Sedgemoor Express – 13/2 (Generally available)

4.55: Brave Eagle – 11/4 (Generally available)

5.25: Captain Felix – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE:

BEST PRICES THIS MORNING TO WIN THE WORLD CUP:

2/1–France (Generally available)

11/4–England (365/Boyle/Bet Stars)

14/5–Belgium (188)

6/1–Croatia (Black Type) – easily the biggest price – as short as 7/2 with Hills

 

Scheduled matches:

Tuesday (7.00 kick off):

6/4–France (Generally available) – 4/5 to reach the final (365)

54/25–Draw (Marathon)

75/25–Belgium (Marathon) – 8/7 to reach the final (188)

Wednesday (7.00 kick off):

6/4–England (Black Type)7/10 to reach the final (Betfair)

23/10–Draw (Marathon)

64/25–Croatia (Marathon) – 17/13 to reach the final (188)

Jul 07

Daily analysis – Saturday 7th

SANDOWN – JULY 7

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2016: 3/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 4/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2014: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 13/2 or less

2013: 6/7 races were won by favourites – 6/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

Totals:

35 races – 14 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

5 winners—Sir Michael Stoute (8/1, 8/1, 13/2, 5/1 & 4/1) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4 winners—John Gosden (11/2, 5/2*, 13/8* & 4/9*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

5/10—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, 3/1*, 11/4, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Dream Of Dreams (12.20) & Desert Diamond (1.30)

4/15—John Gosden (7/2, 2/1*, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Pouvoir Magique (12.55) & Roaring Lion (2.10)

 

12.20: Different League is an interesting Aidan O’Brien entry though his handicappers from across the Irish Sea and nowhere as profitable as his ‘Pattern’ declarations. Koditime will pop up and bite us where it hurts most (in the wallet) though whether it will be today is anyone’s guess.  Similar comments apply to Sound And Silence.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eight renewals have been won by favourites, whilst market leaders go into today’s gig on a four-timer.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

2/3—Haddaf (good & Goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Early money was for Different League but it remains to be seen if the support is sustained when more serious investors arrive in the playground

 

12.55: SOUTH SEAS is the type of horse that excites, frustrates and generally drives us mad as we try to anticipate if this will be his day.  At 16/1 (freely available at the time of writing), I’m hoping that I have called Andrew Balding’s talented individual right for once!  Potential party poopers in the field include Pouvoire Magique and Chiefofchiefs.  For the record, four-year-olds have won seven renewals during the last decade which points towards the chances of South Seas and Pouvoir Magique.

Favourite factor: Only one clear (2/1) favourite have won during the last ten years alongside a joint 7/2 market leader.  The only odds on chance in the race during the last twelve years finished out of the frame – tread carefully.

Each way selection: South Seas

Record of the seven course winners in the field:

1/1—South Seas (good to soft)

2/9—Secret Art (good & soft)

1/1—Via Serendipity (good to firm)

1/5—Manson (good to firm)

1/5—Master Craftsman (soft)

1/2—Chiefofchiefs (good)

2/2—Rum Runner (good to firm & Good to soft)

Overnight market activity:

Bits and pieces for a few each way types, principally Pouvoire Magique

 

1.30: The only trainer to have secured two wins in this race during the last decade is Sir Michael Stoute which adds confidence to my original selection DESERT DIAMIOND, albeit from an each way angle to moderate stakes.

Favourite factor: Seven years have slipped by since the last (4/6) market leader obliged.  That said, ‘only’ three gold medallists have been returned in double figures during the study period.

Each way selection: Desert Diamond

Record of the two course winners in the third event:

Overnight market activity:

Nothing major as such but there have been nibbles on 33/1 chance Darkness Falls during the last half an hour or so and there will be worse outsiders to consider this afternoon, that’s for sure

 

2.10: As far as we can tell going back so many hundreds of years relating to the sport, nearly every horse in trainer can be traced back to Eclipse, one way or another!  Upwards and onward by informing Aidan O’Brien has saddled four winners of the ‘Eclipse’ during the last sixteen years with Saxon Warrior being his main hope this time around. It’s worth noting however the slightly negative recent figures of Aidan’s team in recent years which suggests that ROARING LION is the logical call today.  Some of the interest has disappeared overnight given the withdrawal of the Epsom Derby winner Masar, whilst Saxon Warrior has to find the thick end of three lengths with Roaring Lion if he is to turn that relevant Epsom form line around.  That said, this 10 furlong trip might prove ideal but then again, the same could be said of John Gosden’s projected favourite. Roaring Lion was oh so impressive over the trip in the ‘Dante’ at York and was going well with two furlongs to run in the Derby.  I have little (if any) doubt that the 2016 winner Hawkbill will attract plenty of each way money with Bet365 at 20/1, even though we have been robbed of the ‘dead eight’ scenario.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won the ‘Eclipse’ during the last decade.

Win selection: Roaring Lion

Each Way option: Hawkbill

Record of the two course winners in the Eclipse Stakes:

1/1—Hawsbill (soft)

1/1—Masar (good)

Overnight market activity:

There was a ton of money in the (realistic) exchange queue at around 9/4 for Saxon Warrior at the break of day and I doubt that the five firms which have the 2000 Guineas winners at that price will be quoting those odds for long.

 

2.45: There are too many ifs, buts and maybe’s in this contest for me to become financially involved, despite the fact that only six runners potentially face the starter.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored during the last decade alongside a pair of joint/co favourites.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Cosmopolitan Queen (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Rogue remains an 11/1 chance with Bet365 this morning which surprises yours truly to a fashion, though I guess people will be more inclined to invest in stable companion Point Hope at around half of those odds.  I don’t believe there will be much daylight between the pair personally….

 

3.20: Nearly Caught has snared gold and bronze medals in the last two renewals of this event, though taking 2/1 about an eight-year-old at what might be the hottest part of the day fails to prize my wallet open, especially given the two mile distance…

Favourite factor: Three of the last six renewals have gone the way of the favourite, whilst all ten winners during the last decade have won at a top price of 8/1.

Record of the two course winner in the penultimate race:

1/1—Jukebox Jive (good)

1/3—Nearly Caught (goof to firm)

Overnight market activity:

Nothing of note….

 

3.55: Four of the last five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 to success and BAJAN GOLD is hopefully going to extend that positive trend this afternoon, whilst expecting England to be 1-0 at around this time this afternoon.  That’s where my expectancy ends!

Favourite factor: Three (joint) favourites have won during the last four years.

Win selection: BAJAN GOLD

Overnight market activity:

Jack Regan was (seemingly) the each way shout overnight though the price appears to have stabilised at around 6/1 now

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery service – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts on Friday were:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Thoughts this morning:

The two horses mentioned above are still uppermost in my thoughts, though there has been overnight support for Dave Dexter and I doubt the 11/2 with Ladbrokes will last long this morning.

 

Nursery stats this season (1 race – 12 runners in total):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2) – not represented today

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1) – not represented today

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weight carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weight carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

Jul 07

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 7th

Friday’s school report:

See Twitter page for full details but….11 MMA WINNERS YESTERDAY + 7 placed & 7 others which were backed off the boards before being beaten + two non runners….

The New Daily Service offered Sandown as the chosen meeting and winners & each way options flowed off the page + a successful 14/1 forecast via the only two horses mentioned in dispatches – the right way around as well for good measure!

 

APPROXIMATE SATURDAY TIMELINE:

4.30: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

6.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 5 ADDITIONS

 

SATURDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

BEVERLEY:

3.10: Bosham – 10/1 (Generally available)

3.45: Kalagia – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/Unibet)

5.20: Terrier Spirit – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

Additional Beverley entry at 8.00:

2.00: One To Go – 5/1 (Betfair)

 

CARLISLE:

6.30: Eljaeff – 11/2 (Generally available)

8.30: Equitant – 9/2 (Betfair/PP/BetBright)

Additional Carlisle entries at 8.00:

6.00: Cliff – 7/1 (Generally available)

7.00: Cuppacocoa – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/BetBright)

 

HAYDOCK:

12.35: Austrian School – 7/1 (365/Betrfair/PP/BetBright)

1.10: Mrs Sippy – 13/2 (BetBright)

1.45: Golden Wolf – 15/2 (Skybet/Coral/Black Tyope)

2.55: Madrhino – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.30: Excellent Times (Generally available)

4.05: Epaulement – 5/1 (Hills)

Additional Haydock entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

LEICESTER:

4.10: Sir Commander – 5/2 (Generally available)

5.10: Makambe – 11/4 (Unibet)

Additional Leicester entry at 8.00:

1.50: Rux Ruxx – 9/2 (365/Marathon)

 

NOTTINGHAM:

5.40: Diamond Runner – 9/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/BetBright)

6.40: Meshardal – 5/1 (Hills)

7.40: Afendem – 11/2 (BetBright)

8.10: Ventura Gold – 7/2 (BetBright)

8.40: Chingachgook – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Additional Nottingham entry at 8.00:

NONE

 

SANDOWN:

12.20: Different League – 13/2 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

12.55: Pouvoire Magique – 9/1 (365/BetBright)

1.30: Desert Diamond – 9/1 (Betfair/BetBright)

2.10: Hawkbill – 20/1 (365)

2.45: Rogue – 11/1 (365)

3.55: Jack Regan – 13/2 (Generally available)

Additional Sandown entry at 8.00:

3.20: High Jinx – 6/1 (365/Hills/Unibet/BetBright)

 

CHELMSFORD:

2.40: Al Asef – 4/1 (Generally available)

3.50: Bullington – 10/3 (Skyber/Betfair/PP)

4.25: Global Wonder – 5/2 (Hills)

5.25: Mr Minerals – 8/1 (Skybet/Betfair/PP/BetVictor)

Additional Chelmsford entry at 8.00:

DONE

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE – All relevant games and to win outright:

TO WIN OUTRIGHT:

21/10—France (10Bet)

5/2—Belgium (Generally available)

9/2—England (Black Type)

6/1—Croatia (Betfair/PP/Black Type/10Bet)

20/1—Russia (Generally available)

22/1—Sweden (Generally available)

 

Best prices for Tuesday’s Semi-final:

8/5—France (Betway)

23/10—Draw (Skybet)

11/5—Belgium (Marathon/Betway/Unibet)

 

TODAY’S MATCHES:

ENGLAND V SWEDEN – 3pm kick off

10/11—England (Generally available)

23/10—Draw (365/Betfair/Black Type/188)

41/10—Sweden (Marathon)

Half time betting:

16/9—England (188)

19/20—Draw (Unibet/888)

5/1—Sweden (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

4/9—England (Generally available)

47/23—Sweden (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/5–England/England (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Boyle)

20/1–England/Draw (Skybet)

66/1–England/Sweden (Skybet)

19/5–Draw/England (Unibet/888)

18/5–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

39/4–Draw/Sweden (Marathon)

34/1–Sweden/England (Unibet/888)

20/1–Sweden/Draw (Skybet)

41/4– Sweden/Sweden (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Sunbets)

13/20 (NO) – (BetVictor/Bet Stars)

Unders/overs:

53/100–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

89/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Betway/Boyle)

23/5–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/188)

Correct scores:

19/4—1-0 England (Bet Stars/Sportingbet/BetVictor)

6/1—1-1 draw (365/Bet Stars/BetVictor)

13/2—0-0 draw (Unibet/Bet Stars/888)

15/2—2-0 England (Generally available)

9/1—2-1 England (Genrally available)

10/1—1-0 Sweden (Bet Stars)

18/1—2-1 Sweden (365/Skybet)

25/1—2-2 draw (188)

25/1—2-0 Sweden (Skybet/Bet Stars/188)

 

CROATIA V RUSSIA – 7pm kick off                    

6/5—Croatia (Generally available)

85/40—Draw (Marathon)

16/5—Russia (Marathon/Betfair)

Half time betting:

2/1—Croatia (Generally available)

10/11—Draw (Generally available)

41/10—Russia (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

7/12—Croatia (188)

8/5—Russia (Sportingbet)

Half time/Full time odds:

11/4–Croatia/Croatia (Ladbrokes/Coral)

18/1–Croatia/Draw (Skybet/188)

55/1–Croatia/Russia (Ladbrokes)

43/10–Draw/Croatia (Unibet/888)

10/3–Draw/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor))

39/5–Draw/Russia (Marathon)

35/1–Russia/Croatia (Unibet/188/888)

18/1–Russia/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

13/2–Russia/Russia (Marathon/BetVictor)

Both teams to score:

5/4 (YES) – (Betfair/Sunbets/Bet Stars)

8/11 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

13/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

181/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Betway)

19/4–3.5 goals or more (Unibet/888/BetVictor)

Jul 06

Daily analysis – Friday 6th

SANDOWN – JULY 6

 

  • Early Nursery thoughts/stats regarding tomorrow’s two year old handicap event can be found at the foot of the column.

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 3/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 11/1 or less

2016: 3/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2015: 0/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 5/1 or less

2014: 2/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2013: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 7/1 or less

Totals:

31 races – 9 winning favourites – 30/31 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

 

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

4 winners—Mark Johnston (9/2, 9/2, 9/4 & 10/11*) – 4 runners: Chapelli (1.50), Arctic Sound (2.25), Persian Moon (3.00) & King’s Proctor (4.05)

 

Leading represented trainers this season:

3/8—Sir Michael Stoute (14/1, Evens* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Mustahry (3.30) & Melting Dew (4.05)

3/13—John Gosden (7/2, 15/8* & 4/6*) – 2 runners: Alrajaa (2.25) & King Of Comedy (3.00)

2/4—Alan King (5/1 & 13/8*) – 2 runners: Green Etoile (2.25) & Hummdinger (3.00)

 

1.20: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-2 or less, whilst 25 favourites (including joint and co market leaders) have gone to post in the last 21 years. Just three favourites have reached the frame during the period, with no winners having been recorded.  Adhering to the weight trends, I suggest that Jashma and Justice Lady represent a little value at the time of writing, though not enough for yours truly to get involved financially.

Favourite factor: Look in the analysis to reveal a true horror story in recent times.

Record of the four course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Rio Rinaldo (good to firm)

1/1—Justice Ladfy (good)

1/5—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Jashma (good)

 

1.50: This is a trappy heat and no mistake but one of the few signals to take into account is the fact that Well Done Fox is being kept on the safe side by layers at the time of writing. Five of the last six winners have contested Royal Ascot‘s Norfolk Stakes on their previous starts but that startling ‘edge’ has been ignored my trainers this time around.  Mick Channon’s pair Bungleinthejungle and Barbill make as much appeal as any accordingly and given the 9/1 quote by Ladbrokes this morning, BARBILL is the tentative each way call.

Favourite factor: Just five of the last 25 favourites in this event have scored.

Each way selection: Barbill

 

2.25: Arctic Sound (sets the standard from my viewpoint) is as good a place to start as any I guess with Mark Johnston leading the way at Esher this season, though whether Mark’s Haydock runner up can fend off two likely looking newcomers in Line Of Duty and ALRAJAA is another thing entirely.  John Gosden said of the latter named Dubawi raider earlier in the season; “Looks the sort to run from July onward; carries himself well and has a nice way about him”

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite finished well down the pack.

Win selection: Alrajaa

 

3.00: Persian Moon looks a solid 3/1 type from my viewpoint, though John Gosden was equally impressed with KING OF COMEDY earlier in the year as his runner (Alrajaa) in the first heat of the this contest.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same single stat applies.

Win selection: King Of Comedy

 

3.30: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MUSTASHRY standing out of the three vintage representatives on this occasion. That said, Spark Plug has secured gold and silver medals via the last two renewals of the race and warrants an each way saver at 6/1 with two leading firms early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 16 favourites have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include five of the last nine winners.  The last 14 gold medallists have scored at odds of 7/1 or less.

Win selection: Mustashry

Each way option: Spark Plug

Record of the three course winners in the field:

1/2—Euginio (good to firm)

1/4—Spark Plug (Good to firm)

1/3—Connect (good to soft)

 

4.05: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals, whilst securing eight victories during the last thirteen years. Vintage representative BLUE LAUREATE caught the eye at 6/1 this morning, with connections possibly having most to fear from King’s Proctor and Melting Dew.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven contests have been claimed by market leaders of one description or another.

Each way selection: Blue Laureate

Record of the two course winners in the sixth event:

1/2—Pivoine (good to firm)

1/4—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

4.40: Although freely available to back at 4/1 at the time of writing, it would come as no surprise to witness SAROOG attracting support with Ryan Moore booked to ride.  It came as something of a shock to the system to find no three-year-olds in the field, given their 5-4 lead over the four-year-olds in the race during the last decade.

Favourite factor: Eight of the sixteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far, though just four market leaders have claimed the gold medal during the study period.  That said, 12 of the last 14 winners have scored at a top price of 6/1.

Win selection: Saroog

Record of the course winner in the seventh contest on the card:

2/4—Jacob Cats (2 x good to firm)

 

5.15: MICHELE STROGOFF might be a popular horse in the betting shops in and around the Esher area this morning I’ll wager as punters anticipate the chance of picking up any losses en route home after racing.  This is a ploy I used to adopt when going racing regularly as it is so easy to get swayed into backing another horse on course.  I used my strongest selection on a card as my banker knowing that if I did my cash at the track, I would be level on the day if the ‘nap’ obliged.  These days of course with ‘shops on site’ there is no reason to deviate from the route to the racecourse.  If I was going racing at Sandown today, my nap would be Michele Strogoff.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 joint favourite snared gold and bronze medals in a six runner race.

Win selection: Michele Strogoff

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/6—Biotic (good to firm)

Overnight market activity:

We’re not talking ‘bundles of money’ in the dead of night for Michelle Strogoff though that said, I anticipate lots of support at around the 9/4 mark, quotes which are freely available at the time of writing – though for how long?

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery service – next race: Saturday – Chelmsford (2.05):

Early thoughts:

Richard Hughes has declared his recent dual winner Sunsprite who catches the eye with the trainer boasting Nursery stats last year of 6/31, with one of the gold medallists picking up a two-year-handicap event here at Chelmsford in 2017.

Mark Johnston (17/107 in the Nursery sector last season) won with two of his two-year-old handicappers at this venue last year from just seven representatives.  Mark’s entry this time around is I Am A Dreamer who attempts to secure his third win via his last four assignments.

Nursery stats this season (1 race):

Favourite stats:

1 favourite – unplaced

Winning trainer:

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

Trainer of beaten favourite:

Clive Cox (4/1)

Stats of first three in the betting:

3 relevant runners: 1 winner & 2 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

6 runners – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

6 runners – All unplaced

Weights carried by successful horse:

One at 9-0

Weights carried by beaten favourite:

One at 9-11

Jul 06

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 6th

Thursday’s school report:

Four placed MMA horses (again) on Thursday to frustrate your truly/followers alongside 3 WINNERS at 5/1 (returned at 9/2), 10/3 (11/8) & 13/8 (10/11).  Three of four placed horses were offered at 5/1 (9/4), 5/1 (11/2) & 9/2 (7/2) whilst the other drifted to 12/1….

The most positive feature of the day was the 4/1 victory of Scintillating who was highlighted in no uncertain terms by Mal via the New Daily Analysis service which offered Newbury as the principle meeting.

Mal quoted Ralph Beckett (commenting earlier in the year) as saying “She was an expensive purchase who will probably prove to be well bought”, fully expecting the newcomer to oblige which she did in scintillating style!

  • I continue to operate under the heading ‘light duties’ until I resume after a complete break soon (Sunday 15th to Friday 20th inclusive), expecting to be fully operational by Monday 23rd.  Sincere thanks offered to all the readers who have shown such wonderful support of late.

APPROXIMATE FRIDAY TIMELINE:

3.00: WORLD CUP SERVICE – DONE

5.00 ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

8.00: MMA UPDATES & ADDITIONS IF/WHERE RELEVANT – DONE WITH 8 ADDITIONS

FRIDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 5.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.30 with additions if/where relevant.

BEVERLEY:

6.00: Bling King (4/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.10: Areen Heart – 6/1 (BetBright0

Additional Beverley entry at 8.30:

8.20: Lever Du Soleil – 7/2 (Generally available)

 

DONCASTER:

1.30: Ocelot – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.10: Poets Society – 10/3 (Marathon)

3.45: Vera Drake – 7/1 (Betfair)

4.20: Natural History – 15/2 (Betfair)

Additional Doncaster entry at 8.30:

2.40: Betty F – 9/4 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

 

HAYDOCK:

6.15: Broken Force – 5/2 (365/BetVictor)

6.45: Iconic Choice – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

7.55: Vale Of Kent – 9/2 (Generally available)

8.30: My Wagyu – 9/2 (Betfair)

9.05: Palmer – 11/2 (Hills/BetVictor)

Additional Haydock entry at 8.30:

NONE

 

SANDOWN:

1.20: Open Wide – 4/1 (Generally available)

1.50: Well Done Fox – 7/2 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

2.25: Arctic Sound – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

3.00: Persian Moon – 3/1 (Generally available)

4.05: Blue Laureate – 6/1 (Gnenerally available)

4.40: Saroog – 4/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Michelle Strogoff – 9/4 (Generally available)

Additional Sandown entry at 8.30:

3.30: Spark Plug (Hills)

 

NEWTON ABBOT:

2.15: Mr Mafia – 2/1 (Generally available)

3.55: Barkis – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Fifty Shades – 11/4 (Marathon/Betfair/PP/Coral)

Additional Newton Abbot entries at 8.30:

3.20: The Kid – 11/1 (Generally available)

5.05: Across The Park – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

 

CHELMSFORD:

5.10: Jfoul – 9/2 (Betfair)

6.55: Greaves – 6/1 (PP)

Additional Chelmsford entries at 8.30:

7.30: Global Conqueror – 5/2 (365/Unibet/Bet Victor)

8.05: La Figula – 2/1 (Generally available)

8.40: Aleef – 5/2 (Generally)

 

WORLD CUP SERVICE – TODAY’S MATCHES:

FRANCE V URUGUAY – 3pm kick off

53/50—France (Marathon)

11/5—Draw (PP/BetVictor)

73/20—Uruguay (Marathon)

Half time betting:

15/8—France (Coral)

11/12—Draw (Unibet/888)

9/2—Uruguay (365/Marathon)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

49/100—France (Marathon)

23/12—Uruguay (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

12/5–France/France (Ladbrokes/Coral/Unibet/888)

18/1–France/Draw (Skybet/188)

60/1–France/Uruguay (Ladbrokes/Coral/Betfair/Unibet/888)

41/10–Draw/France (Unibet/888)

7/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

9/1–Draw/Uruguay (188)

34/1–Uruguay/France (Unibet/888)

19/1–Uruguay/Draw (BetVictor)

15/2– Uruguay/Uruguay (Marathon/BetVictor)

Both teams to score:

11/8 (YES) – (Sunbets)

17/25 (NO) – (Marathon)

Unders/overs:

13/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

91/50–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/6–under 3.5 goals (Skybet/Unibet/888)

19/4–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor)

 

BRAZIL V BELGIUM – 7pm kick off                    

6/5—Brazil (Sunbets)

5/2—Draw (Betfred/BetVictor)

14/5—Belgium (Marathon)

Half time betting:

15/8—Brazil (Ladbrokes/Coral)

23/20—Draw (Betway)

39/11—Belgium (188)

To qualify for the quarter-finals:

7/12—Brazil (Unibet/888)

14/9—Belgium (188)

Half time/Full time odds:

13/5–Brazil/Brazil (Ladbrokes/Coral)

16/1–Brazil/Draw (Skybet)

45/1–Brazil/Belgium (188)

23/5–Draw/Brazil (Unibet/888)

9/2–Draw/Draw (Skybet)

77/10–Draw/Belgium (Unibet)

30/1–Belgium/Brazil (Unibet/188)

16/1–Belgium/Draw (Skybet/BetVictor)

113/20–Belgium/Belgium (Marathon)

Both teams to score:

5/6 (YES) – (Betfair/Sunbets/10Bet)

17/16 (NO) – (188)

Unders/overs:

22/25–under 2.5 goals (Marathon)

107/100–2.5 goals or more (Marathon)

1/3–under 3.5 goals (Skybet)

27/10–3.5 goals or more (BetVictor) – Arguably the bet of day, hopefully proving to be a great spectacle!

 

Jul 05

Daily Analysis – Thursday 5th

NEWBURY – JULY 5

 

Don’t forget to scroll down to by Nursery sector today for the first two-year-old handicap race of the season!

 

  • Please note a slightly reduced service today due to continued sickness – which is hopefully compensated by the new Nursery coverage…

 

Historical facts about this meeting (five year study):

2017: 1/7 races were won by favourites – 5/7 winners scored at 10/1 or less

2016: 2/7 races were won by favourites – All 7 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2015: 1/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 9/1 or less

2014: 0/6 races were won by favourites – 5/6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

2013: 2/6 races were won by favourites – All 6 winners scored at 8/1 or less

Totals:

32 races – 6 winning favourites – 29/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading represented trainer during the last five years:

No clear trainer held sway though if we offer ‘Team Hannon’ collectively, they produced three winners (8/1, 11/8* * 11/10*) during the study period.  Richard (Junior) saddles eight at Newbury this evening: On A Roll (5.40), Posted & Cool Kitty (6.20), Ritchie Valens, London Rock & The Paddocks (6.45) & Blachfleur & Letsbe Avenue (8.55)

Leading represented trainers this season:       

5/15—William Haggas (Four winning favourites + 9/4) – 2 runners: Ascended (6.1%) & Nicklaus (8.55)

2/2—Tom Dascombe (5/1 & 9/4) – 2 runners: Celestial Force (7.15) & Punkawallah (8.25)

 

RACE BY RACE ANALYSIS AT NEWBURY:

5.40: ICONIC KNIGHT has to be of interest from my viewpoint, with DREAMBOAT ANNIE offered up as saver material from an each way angle.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following three renewals thus far.

Win selection: Iconic Knight

Each way option: Dreamboat Annie

 

6.15: Ralph Beckett spoke of his Siyouni filly pre-season in this positive manner; “She was an expensive purchase who will probably prove to be well bought”.  Although this looks a warm event, SCINTILATING is the call accordingly albeit whatever she achieves today for ‘Highclere’ , there will be plenty more left to come, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Win selection: Scintilating

 

6.45: The Paddocks sets the standard via his debut success but that said, he was struggling to early on his latest Royal Ascot outing to back with any degree of confidence here.  Withdrawn from a race at Yarmouth last week, James Street might be the win and place route to take though the chances are that my pennies will remain safely tucked away.

Favourite factor: Last year’s favourite failed to follow in the successful hoofsteps of the inaugural favour that scored at 11/8 the previous year.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—The Paddocks (good to firm)

 

7.15: KING LUD has an each way (bet to nothing) look about him in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  This is his handicap debut and though there are only two places are up for grabs in this ‘short field’ event, I believe it’s worth adding the extra stake to (hopefully) ensure a return of some description.  That said, it’s worth noting that Tom Dascombe has won with both runners that he has sent down to Newbury so far this season whereby the chance of Celestial Force is respected alongside Sleeping Lion.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from an each way perspective, albeit to one quarter odds a place as opposed to one fifth in general terms.

Favourite factor: We have to search back eight years to find the only successful favourite in this event during the last decade.

Each way selection: King Lud

 

7.50: Ladbrokes and Coral were out on something of a limb at the time of writing by offering RESTLESS ROSE at 4/1 at the time of writing. Sylvestre De Sousa’s mount has only contested four assignments and trainer Stuart Williams can be congratulated for finding an ideal race for his filly at a Grade 1 venue.  Four-year-olds have won both races to date if you are looking for an additional reason to back Rose Berry.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three market leaders (via two renewals) has finished in the frame to date, without winning its relevant contest.

Each way selection: Restless Rose

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/2—Madame Bounty (good to firm)

 

8.25: It strikes me having got this far down the card that win and place calls are dominating the meeting and another horse to fit that bill tonight is OURMULLION at around the 5/1 mark.  The danger could prove to be Tom Dascombe’s norther raider Punkawallah, this being the second of Tom’s pair of travellers to Newbury this evening.

Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals.

Each way selection: Ourmullion

 

8.55: The current 7/4 quote about Courtside could prove to be something of catch as David Dimsock’s raider is the only horse for money in the finale at 8.00 this morning.

Favourite factor: Detectives are still out searching for last year’s 4/1 market leader which failed to emulate the previous winner that struck for the majority of punters at odds of 4/5.

Win selection: COURTSIDE

Record of the course winner in the finale:

1/2—Ragstone View (good to firm)

 

Any place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

NURSERY SECTOR:

3.00 Haydock:

High Horse – Clive Cox (Clive’s Nursery record last year: 3/16)

Finoah – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Luchador – Archie Watson (1/14)

Dancing Speed – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Solesmes – Mick Channon (10/59)

Triple One – Michael Bell (1/10)

Five Helmets – Tom Dascombe (9/58)

Ventura Bay – Richard Fahey (14/156)

Leoube – Richard Hannon (16/124)

Bouncin Back – Nigel Tinkler (4/27)

Juniors Fantasy – Tim Easterby (3/62)

Tobeornottobee – Declan Carroll (1/8)

 

Viewpoint offered last weekend:

Tom Dascombe trained the successful 2/1 favourite in last year’s inaugural contest with Tom holding three entries this time around.

Five Helmets was fourth at 25/1 last time out having previously been beaten just four lengths in a Windsor contest.  Stable companion Finoah might do better of the pair with Richard Kingscote already showing preference though by the look of things, Richard is undecided on his options as he is also potentially booked aboard Dark Thunder which is my idea of the pick of the trio at the time of writing.

Tom’s latter named April foal was third in Chester’s ‘Lily Agnes’ on his second start and it’s worth noting that Tom still has two big race entries at the back end of the season for this individual who has been given a handicap mark of 77.

Tom saddled nine Nursery winners last year and his record with two-year-old handicappers at Haydock was 1/4.

Viewpoint now:

Tom Dascombe has offered the green light to his first named pair mentioned in dispatches though rather surprisingly, Stable jockey Richard Kingscote has been booked aboard Five Helmets which is rated ten pounds inferior to his stable companion.

That said, this is what handicaps are all about of course with the official assessor attempting to land a twelve runner dead heat in the contest!

Out of interest, Tom has side-lined Dark Thunder for another day, with the two big races towards the back end still on his agenda.

Other than Tom’s raiders, I expect High Horse and Solesmes to give investors a decent run for their collective monies.

 

Jul 05

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 5th

Wednesday’s school report:

It was a quiet day due to sickness yesterday when I offered up 10 MMA horses for your consideration.  Nearly every horse was well backed which regular readers will have come to understand as ‘normal procedure’ these days.

3 WINNERS were recorded at 4/1 (returned at 5/2**), 9/4 (2/1) & 4/5 (1/2) – alongside 1 placed horse at 4/1 (11/4) and one non runner.

Four of the five beaten horses were backed from 13/2 to 7/2, 11/2 to 11/4, 8/1 to 6/1 & 3/1 to 5/2.

Let’s call it an ‘okay day’….

There is bad news to report however as medics are suggesting (nay demanding) that I take a week off work completely, sooner rather than later.  I would not leave you totally ‘uncovered’ in terms of copy, suffice to say that for four of the seven days which I could not cover ‘in full’, I would offer you relevant stats and facts for meetings based on past results.

This will not be happening next week (as was my reply yesterday!) with Newmarket’s July Meeting being contested.

If we can book something up over the coming few days however, the plan is to carry out my last work next Saturday (14th) which would give reasonable amounts of coverage for the Sunday and Monday too (thanks to 48 hour declarations) leaving Tuesday – Friday being covered as best I can.

I apologise for this ‘inconvenience’ though the majority of you have paid for the service until the end of the year and the view from medics is that unless I take complete break for a week (they would prefer a month), subscribers could be seriously ‘short changed’ if you follow my drift….

 

APPROXIMATE THURSDAY TIMELINE:

7.00:  ‘DEAD OF NIGHT’ MMA SERVICE – DONE

Apologies – No further work offered today due to illness….

 

THURSDAY:

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.00 am) – these prices will be updated at 8.00 with additions if/where relevant.

EPSOM:

6.00: Whinging Willie – 11/2 (365)

7.35: Dourada – 3/1 (Marathon)

HAYDOCK:

2.00: Fleeting Freedom – 9/2 (PP/BetVictor)

2.30: Jonah Jones – 13/8 (Ladbrokes)

3.00: Solesmes – 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00: Kirkham – 12/1 (Generally)

NEWBURY:

5.40: Two horses to consider: Iconic Knight – 10/3 (Skybet/Betfair/BetVictor) & Dreamboat Annie – 11/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.15: King Lud – 5/1 (Generally available)

7.50: Restless Rose – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral)

8.25: Ourmullion – 5/1 (365/BetVictor)

YARMOUTH:

3.20: Lord Murphy – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.20:  Wild Acclaim – 7/2 (365/Marathon/Sunbets)

PERTH:

2.40: Shanaway – 9/1 (365/Marathon)

3.10: Netfy Bay – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/Cioral)

3.40: Mitcd 15/8 (Generally available)

4.10: Jovial Joey – 15/2 (Generally)

4.40: Loud And Clear – 11/2 (Ladbrokes/PP)