Oct 09

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday October 9

 

You can’t beat a wealth of experience….

I wrote the thick end of 6000 daily analysis columns for the Sporting Life which goes to prove that you can buy success (and tons of experience) without it costing you a fortune, only a penny a race in fact!:

Oct 07

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 7th

Subscribers will receive today’s work by 6.30 which features the very popular MMA service alongside today’s Uttoxeter analysis.  Loncgamp will also be featured within my MMA work & via stats and facts about ‘Arc’ day.

Saturday’s winners included those at 14/1 (returned at 10/1 & 9/1 (5/1) – including decent results from Ascot’s Daily Analysis.  The service costs less than 30p a day (a penny a race) and is available via this link:

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Wishing you the best of luck whilst obviously hoping that you ‘take the plunge’!

Best regards as ever – Mal

Oct 06

Mal Boyle stats

Subscribers will receive today’s work by 6.30 which features the very popular MMA service alongside today’s Ascot analysis.

The service costs less than 30p a day (a penny a race) and is available via this link:

If you sign up today – you will start receiving the work for Sunday (onward) – the process starting the next day whenever you want to join our merry throng.

That said, if you sign up this (Saturday) morning by 10.30 and let me know on my Twitter page (send notification of the name on the invoice), I will get today’s work over to you (just let me know your e-mail address)….

Wishing you the best of luck during the course of the weekend whilst obviously hoping that you ‘take the plunge’!

Best regards as ever – Mal

 

Oct 05

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 5th

Subscribers received today’s work by 6.00 which featured the MMA service alongside today’s Ascot analysis.

The service costs less than 30p a day and is available via this link:

If you sign up today – you will start receiving the work for Saturday (onward) – the process starting the next day whenever you want to join our merry throng.

Wishing you the best of luck during the course of the weekend whilst obviously hoping that you ‘take the plunge’!

Best regards as ever – Mal

 

Oct 04

Daily (Warwick) analysis – Thursday 4th

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WARWICK – THURSDAY 4TH OCTOBER

2.10: Six-year-olds would have come into the race on a hat trick, though no trainer was (seemingly) aware of the potential ‘edge’ this time around.  General Custer looked a tad big at 11/2 with Hills/BetVictor this morning, without wishing to ‘lump on’ if you catch my drift.  Topofthecotswolds looks the horse to beat, though I tend to do better when backing the Twiston-Davies horses when they are on offer at each way prices.

Favourite stats: The last three favourites have won following the demise of the inaugural 1/6 market leader under Tony McCoy!  It wasn’t all plain sailing when AP was in the saddle; lest we forget…

 

2.45: Five-year-olds have won all four contests to date, with vintage representatives at 4/5 to extend that tally before the form book is taken into account.  The race looks to have a ‘bookmakers result’ about it and the 18/1 offer about Casemates Square was accommodated to ‘loose change’ in the dead of night.

Favourite stats: The reverse scenario to the opening race on the card as the first three favourites won before last year’s 3/1 market leader never threatened to get involved in the contest before finishing nearer last than first.

 

3.15: It’s not too often that you find a Dan Skelton runner offered as the ‘outsider of three’ but that is the prospect regarding Desirable Court this afternoon.  Dan’s 7/21 record at the track this season might tempt some people to have a bet on the race that they might otherwise have swerved.  I haven’t played as yet but if the five-year-old drifts to 7/1 or more over the next hour or two, I might just get involved, albeit to minimum stakes.

Favourite stats: This is a new race on the Warwick card and judging by the lack of contenders at the first time of asking, the ‘Beginners Chase’ might not be renewed twelve months from now. On officially good ground, the lack of runners defies belief.

 

3.50: Voodoo Doll makes some appeal at around the 7/2 mark this morning, especially as trainer Evan Williams boasts a 2/3 record at Warwick this term, albeit it’s early days in the season.

Favourite stats: Lass year’s inaugural 3/1 joint favourites finished immediately behind the 7/2 winner in a ‘short field’ event.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward investors from each way & Placepot perspectives.

 

4.20: 15/2 made for half decent reading this morning about the chance of Chirico Vallis, though the opportunity of winning this event depends largely on his jumping which needs to sharpen up, especially when the heat is on over the closing fences.  Templehills is arguably the horse to beat but does one victory from his last six assignments (a shabby affair at Fakenham) reflect an early morning price of 7/4 with Coral and Bet365?

Favourite stats: This is another new contest on the Warwick programme.

Record of the course winner (stats in brackets relates to other venues):

1/4—Templehills (4/11)

 

4.55: A tight finale that makes little appeal from a betting perspective or at least it would have but for the general quote of 11/2 about Solstalla.  Much depends on how the afternoon has gone before I take the plunge – or abstain.

Favourite stats: Last year’s inaugural even money favourite had to give best to 10/1 shot Man Of Crystal who attempts the double this afternoon.

Record of the course winner (stats in brackets relates to other venues):

1/3—Milan Of Crystal (4/27) – won this race last year

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

Oct 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 4th

Wednesday’s school report: 

5 WINNERS on the day at an average price of 9/2 (average SP of 10/3) – notwithstanding eight placed horses – all at each way prices…..

Like all good each way bets yesterday, May Remain finished fourth (!) but not before being backed from 12/1 to 9/2 as anticipated.

Thursday (today) is the last day that work will be posted in this fashion as from Friday, subscribers will receive the MMA Service and my Daily analysis page via e-mails.

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THURSDAY’S MMA SERVICE (at 6.20):

WARWICK (at 5.50): 

2.10: General Custard – 11/2 (Hills/BetVictor)

2.45: Casemates Square – 18/1 (Skybet/BetVictor/IUnibet/Black Type)

4.20: Chirico Vallis – 15/2 (Skyebt/Marathon/BetVictor)

4.55: Solstalla – 11/2 (Generally available)

HUNTINGDON (at 6.00): 

2.00: Two horses to consider: Banny’s Lad – 11/2 (Generally available) & Red Hanrahan – 10/1 (Betfair)

2.30: Totterdown – 3/1 (Generally available)

3.35: Norm The Storm – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.10: His Dream – 13/2 (888)

4.40: Invisible Shadow – 4/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

5.15: San Seb – 7/1 (PP)

LINGFIELD (at 6.10): 

2.20: Alexandria – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

2.55: Thaayer – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

4.30: Seprani – 9/1 (365/BetVictor)

5.05: Two horses to consider: Twister – 5/1 (Generally available) & Airmax – 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

CHELMSFORD (at 6.20): – A ‘loose change’ evening at Chelmsford – but big prices worth small investments – I have a good each way record at this venue

6.15: We Like Her A Lot – 18/1 (Hills)

7.15: Martineo – 10/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP/Unibet/BetBright)

7.45: Alucinado – 14/1 (betfair/PP)

8.15: New Street – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.45: Aguerooo – 11/1 (Generally available)

9.15: Papa Delta – 10/1 (Betfair/P/BetBright)

 

Oct 03

Daily (Salisbury) analysis – Wednesday 3rd

SALISBURY – OCTOBER 3

1.40: Murray River was worth some small change at 7/1 with Hills this morning, though that value has now dried up.  John Gosden’s Australia colt enters my last chance saloon however, though some might suggest that this is a harsh call, given that Kieran O’Neill’s mount tackles only his third assignment.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/11 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.10: This mile event was probably the shortest trip that Ralph Beckett was going to consider for his Dalakhani newcomer Stormwave who offered some potential value at 12/1 with Paddy Power this morning at the time of writing.  Whether those odds will retract or drift at this moment in time remains to be seen, whereby you are in a better position than yours truly to make a judgment nearer flag fall.  Military Move is another interesting newcomer.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the programme.

 

2.45: Knightshayes looked a tad overpriced at 9/1 with Skybet and BetVictor from my viewpoint an hour or so ago, with the February foal having won at 33’s on debut on a decent surface.  Paul George’s inmate ran well enough under a penalty on officially soft ground at Ffos Las though at that venue, soft going can be pretty testing.  A return to this better surface should bring about another decent effort.  Hermocates is an interesting Hannon newcomer.  Richard’s March foal was due to run at Newbury the other week but was withdrawn because of the ‘unsuitable ground’.  There should be no such worry on that score today.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 5/4 favourite finished out of the (short field) frame at odds of 5/4).  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home reward each way/Placepot investors.

 

3.15: As a half brother to several winners, Jack D’Or makes some appeal, especially as trainer Ed Walker has his inmates going well just now.  Although only one of his last half a dozen horses has actually won, the others have not been beaten far whereby Liam Keniry’s mount is respected at least in a race which might not take a great deal of winning.  Further up the betting, Clara Peeters should prove difficult to knock out of the frame.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the third event on the programme.

 

3.50: Tin Hat and Autumn Splendour could both backed at 7/1 as I penned this column and in a race which otherwise fails to set the pulse racing, I would not be too surprised if the winner emerged from this pair.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst market leaders have a very record from a Placepot perspective during the study period, even though five of the last seven ‘jollies’ have finished out with the washing.  Last year’s 9/4 joint favourites finished second and third behind the 15/2 winner in another short field contest.

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, whilst vintage representatives have claimed eight of the last fifteen available Placepot positions via 40% of the total number of runners.  Seven of the last nine winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1 and putting the facts and stats together produces a short list of the trio of junior representative who all possess ticks in the handicap boxes, namely Blackheath, Mutanaaseq and Beyond Equal.

Favourite factor: Market leaders are only conspicuous by their absence in terms of winners of this race during the last twelve years, whilst just four of those twelve favourites secured Placepot positions. Indeed, five of the relevant gold medallists during the study period were returned in double figures, ranging between 11/1 & 20/1.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/1—Mujassam (7/40)

1/1—Smokey Lane (2/23)

1/3—Beyond Equal (2/6)

1/3—Blackheath (1/8)

 

4.55: As a winner of five of his twelve assignments this year, Summerghand will have earned his rest during the winter months, though hopefully not before he has not increased his tally to half a dozen this afternoon.  The official assessor has granted David O’Meara’s raider a two pound drop which could make the difference between winning and losing in an interesting event.  If Harry Bentley’s mount has gone over the top for the season, I would expect to Rogue to make the most of the advantage.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Salisbury card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/1—Rogue (3/12)

2/2—Pettochside (10/67)

 

5.25: May Remain was a 12/1 chance with Paddy Power which I could not resist, especially with the decent three pound claimer Rossa Ryan in the plate.  The young pilot rode a 16/1 winner for Paul Cole the other day and the trainer has been quick to poach him for just his fourth ride for the yard.  89 winners in all to date, Rossa remains good value for his claim.  Mike Murphy has saddled his last two runners to winning effect whereby his pair of entries here should be respected, namely Rio Ronaldo and Kodiac Express.

Favourite factor: Another new race to close out the card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/10—Waseem Faris (7/86)

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (5/36)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

Oct 03

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 3rd

Tuesday’s school report:

3 MMA WINNNERS AT 8/1 (returned at 6/1), 9/2 (3/1) & 2/1 (11/8) + 9 placed, 7 of which were at each each way odds from 12/1 down to 5/1 + got out of jail free at Sedgefield via the last three winners at 3/1 – 11/4 – 11/8 from my analysis at 6.15 yesterday morning…

 

WEDNESDAY’S MMA SERVICE AT 6.30:

HIGHLIGHTING (MOST UNUSUALLY) ONE RUNNER TODAY:

May Remain (5.25 Salisbury) is a 12/1 chance with Paddy Power this morning – as short as 6/1 in a place though I wouldn’t be surprised if the SP was around the 15/2 mark – which would still make for ‘nice pickings’ just for being up early in the morning – best of luck if you play.  There should be plenty of chance to lay off on the exchanges later this morning, if that’s the way you tend to play outsiders….

NOTTINGHAM (at 6.00): 

1.30: Simmer Blossom – 7/1 (Hills)

2.30: Ya Hala – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

3.35: Operative – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.40: New Society – 10/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Nibras Again – 15/2 (/Betfair)

SALISBURY (at 6.10):

1.40: Murray River – 13/2 (365)

2.10: Stormwave – 12/1 (PP)

2.45: Knightshayes – 9/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

4.20: Lightning Charlie – 10/1 (Generally available)

4.55: Summerghand – 5/1 (Generally available)

5.25: May Remain – 12/1 (PP) – RATES AS OUTSTANDING EACH WAY VALUE – SEE MESSAGE ABOVE

BANGOR (at 6.25): 

2.55: Shinistar – 15/2 (Generally available)

3.25: Some Day Soon – 13/2 (Skybet)

4.00: Wandrin Star – 4/1 (Skybet/Hills/Unibet/Coral/188)

4.30: Red Hot Chilly – 5/1 (Generally available)

5.05: Grow Nasa Grow – 4/1 (Hills)

NEWCASTLE (at 6.30):

6.30: Madam Devious – 11/4 (Generally available)

7.30: Cliff – 10/1 (BetBright)

8.00: Sapaulette — 15/2 (BetBright)

8.30: Star Cracker – 5/1 (365)

Oct 02

Daily (Sedgefield) analysis – Tuesday 2nd

SEDGEFIELD – OCTOBER 2

 

2.00: Twelve of the 21 races at Sedgefield this season have been won by favourites and the trade press market leader Compatriot could continue the trend, with Olly Murphy sending his first runner to the track this season, the trainer having saddled two winners from just eight runners here thus far in total.  The chance of Smart Leader has to be taken into consideration however, especially as the twelve-year-old carries the thick end of a stone less than when he last won a race back in November of 2016.

Favourite factor: The opening event is a new race on the Sedgefield card.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

1/8—Mitcd (2/13)

1/2—Smart Ruler (4/43)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds have won both renewals to date and with the first three horses in the market representing the vintage on this occasion, its long odds on that the treble will be landed.  Irish raider Thosedaysaregone represents a trainer who boasts a 1/3 ratio at the track thus far and the gelding has been found a great opportunity in this grade/company.  Maurice Barnes has already landed a couple or surprise victories at Sedgefield this season via 18/1 and 14/1 chances whereby I guess there will be worse 33/1 types (available at Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor) on the card than newcomer Regarde Moi, albeit the ten-year-old jumps obstacles in public for the first time!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 market leader was flanked on both sides by 3/1 second favourites when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ contest two years ago, before last year’s jolly scored at odds of 9/4.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

3.05: The stand out race on the card by a country mile, this Novice Chase event is the type of contest to warm us up nicely for the two day Cheltenham meeting which is staged on the last weekend of this month.  Owners of the four runners in this race can only dream of such heady heights but nonetheless, Caid Du Lin won well enough on his debut over the bigger obstacles at Worcester the last day, notwithstanding Richard Newlands 7/16 stats in September.  Only an accident should stop Dear Sire from claiming the runner up prize.

Favourite factor: One of the two 9/4 joint favourites finished in the frame (without winning) in the inaugural contest, though detectives are still out looking for last year’s 13/8 market leader.

 

3.35: Although only five runners have been declared, this is a tough puzzle to solve which has not been helped by witnessing overnight support for the outsider of the field, namely Red Ochre.  After going through something of a lean spell, Keith Dalgleish has saddled his last two runners to winning effect and given the course record of his raider here, my tentative preference in the contest is stable representative Mixboy.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Sedgefield card.

Course winner (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/4—Mixboy (3/11)

 

4.10: Much the same as in the previous event on the card, this five runner event will take some sorting and no mistake.  Oak Vintage might take advantage of returning to the bigger obstacles after a fairly lame display over timber at Kelso last time out.  Ever So Much is taken as the main threat.

Favourite factor: This is yet another new contest on the Sedgefield programme.

Course winners (ratios at other tracks in brackets):

2/7—Brave Spartacus (8/47)

3/10—Oak Vintage (3/15)

3/12—Ever So Much (7/34)

 

4.45: The second of Dr Richard Newland’s runners on the card is his ex-Irish newcomer C’Est Le Bonheur and I would be a tad disappointed if Sam Twiston-Davies failed to steer the Laveron gelding into the area reserved for the winner after the finale.  Richard boasts a 32% strike rate down the years at Sedgefield (8/25), with the thick end of six points accrued from a level stake perspective.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader finished out with the washing.

Oct 02

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 2nd

Monday’s school report:

There were 4 MMA winners on Monday to keep the hungry wolf well and truly away from out door at 12/1 (returned at the same price), 17/2 (5/1), 11/4 (7/4) & 2/1 (Evens) – backed up by 6 placed horses including those at 14/1, 12/1 & 13/2 (twice).

The analysis at Bath produce decent winners and a forecast for good measure!

 

TUESDAY’S MMA SERVICE AT 6.10:

AYR (at 5.50): 

2.10: Laoise – 4/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

3.15: Chaplin Bay – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.45: Harbour Patrol – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.20: Falmouth Light – 4/1 (Hills)

4.55: Daawy – 2/1 (Hills/Unibet)

5.25: Zoravan – 4/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills)

SEDGEFIELD (at 5.55): 

3.35: Red Ochre – 9/1 (BetBright)

4.45: Emma Lamb – 8/1 (Generally available)

SOUTHWELL (at 6.00): 

2.20: Cillian’s Well – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.35: Suggestion – 9/1 (Hills)

5.10: Delirious Love – 5/1 (Generally available)

5.40: No Hiding Place – 7/2 (365/Betfair/BetVictor)

KEMPTON (at 6.10): 

5.45: Hurricane Alert – 5/1 (Generally available)

6.15: Haadhir – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.15: Silver River – 15/2 (BetVictor/Unibet/365)

7.45: Avocet – 8/1 (365/Betfair/BetVictor)

8.45: Two horses to consider: Dreaming Of Paris – 16/1 (PP/BetVictor) & Happy Escape – 9/1 (Generally available)

9.15: Acrux – 9/1 (BetBright)

Oct 01

Daily (Bath) analysis – Monday 1st

BATH – OCTOBER 1

 

2.10: Archie Watson has enjoyed a fabulous season with his Nursery runners, his two-year-old handicap representatives having done the yard proud with stats of 10/23 (16 points of level stake profit) to date.  Archie has offered the green light to Comete this time around though his wide draw is a negative factor for sure.  That said, Oisin Murphy’s mount is blinkered for the first time which might bring about further improvement to negate that scenario, to a fashion at least.  Within wishing to state the obvious at all, the likes of Pont Vert and Michaels Choice appear to be the obvious dangers from what we have witnessed thus far.

Favourite factor: The four favourites have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside Placepot positions to date.

 

2.45: There is semi-serious money lurking in the wings for Kasbah at the time of writing and with precious little else to work with in this event, Amanda Perrett’s Acclamation gelding gets the tentative call with a half decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  Little Palaver has the benefit of the plum draw in trap one which could enable Clive Cox’s raider to reward each way investors in a race that will not prove difficult to win.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far with last year’s successful 5/4 market leader being the first to snare gold.

 

3.15: Mark Johnston (stats of 8/19 at the track this season) has a chance to snare a few winners at Bath today while the cat is away (Mick Channon (10/17 – no runners today) whereby Mark’s pair of newcomers Themaxwecan and Anyonecanhaveitall are expected to pay the diesel bill, one way or another.  That said, Gentle Look has an obvious favourite’s chance from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Bath card.

 

3.50: Richard Hannon’s consistent course winner Fanfare should give investors another decent run for their collective monies, whilst Cottingham and Go Fox are other win and place types to consider in an ordinary contest.

Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Bath programme.

 

4.20: Six of the seven winners to date have carried a minimum burden of 8-13 whereby the likes of Secret Potion and Archimedes are short listed and offered in order of preference at the time of writing.  Robert Winston’s mount Secret Potion has finished ‘in the three’ five times from ten assignments at this venue, winning on two occasion.  A trap two position looks to have given the four-year-old Stimulation gelding a definite each way chance in this grade/company.  Union Rose is another to consider given that he makes his first appearance in this low grade (Class 6) handicap this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Only three of the seven favourites have finished in the frame as we still await the first successful market leader to strike from a win perspective from as many races.  Indeed, three of the last six winners have scored at 33/1 and 20/1 (twice).

 

4.55: Betfair and Paddy Power to be out on a limb with their 12/1 quotes about Filament Of Gold today, with Roy Bortherton’s raider as short as 7/1 in a place.  I would expect a return of around 17/2 personally whereby 12/1 certainly offers some value from my perspective.  Kirkland Forever is not without support on the exchanges in the dead of night however, which comes as no surprise.

Favourite factor: Yet another new trace on the card.

 

5.30: Oisin Murphy has a few chances on the card, one of which is Unbridled Spirit for sure in this weak contest.  Coachella is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The last two races on the card (two divisions of the same event) are also new events this afternoon.

 

6.00: Silverturnstogold could end Oisin Murphy’s day on a winning note for trainer Tony Carroll.  Tony saddled no less than thirteen winners in September which is a great return for his yard, whilst boasting stats of 6/19 here at Bath this term.

Favourite factor: The last two races on the card (two divisions of the same event) are also new events this afternoon.

 

Oct 01

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 1st

Sunday’s school report – Many thanks for your patience for yesterday’s scenario.  Our daughter has safely arrived in Afghanistan but is currently being transported by armoured car to her destination, so it’s the first time we lave ‘lost touch’ with her, having used flight tracker to make sure the plane had arrived safely.  The next few hours are going to be traumatic again until we hear from her inside the heavily armed University grounds.  That old adage about “having children for life” is certainly a true one…..!

 

MONDAY’S MMA SERVICE at 6.15: 

BATH:

2.45: Little Palaver – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.15: Craster – 13/2 (Hills)

3.50: Cottingham – 9/1 (Generally available)

4.20: David’s Beauty – 12/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

4.55: Filament Of Gold – 12/1 (Betfair/Pp)

CATTERICK: 

2.30: Two horses to consider: Conundrum – 15/2 (365) & Royal Variety – 14/1 (Generally available)

3.35: Paco Ecostar – 13/2 (Generally available)

4.10: Debateable – 13/2 (365)

4.40: Richard Strauss – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

NEWTON ABBOT: 

2.20: Green Or Black – 11/4 (365)

4.00: Ontopoftheworld – 2/1 (PP)

4.30: Bradford Bridge – 9/2 (365)

KEMPTON:

5.45: Slipstream – 5/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Marathon)

7.45: Maypole – 5/1 (Unibet/BetBright)

8.15: Two horses to consider: Althaaquib – 16/1 (Generally available) & El Ghazani – 10/1 BetBright)

9.15: Innoko – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/HIlls)

Sep 30

Mal Boyle stats – Sunday 30th

There will be no service today I’m afraid as I was up until the deep early hours making arrangements for a busy day today.

My daughter starts a twelve month contract in one of the most dangerous places in the world tomorrow and we are taking her to an airport this morning awaiting her flight.

My head is in so many places right now that it would not be right of me anyway in terms of trying to tell you how to back winners on Sunday.

See you tomorrow, hoping that you have a successful day…

Sep 29

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 29th

Friday’s school report – As listed on my Twitter page relating to another successful day!

 

SATURDAY’S MMA SERVICE (last meeting covered at 6.30 am):

NEWMARKET (at 5.50)

1.50: Mohawk – 16/1 (Skybet)

2.25: Queen Of Bermuda – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: Three horses to consider: Seniority – 28/1 (Betfair), Wissahickon – 11/1 (Betfair/PP) & Stylehunter – 14/1 (Generally available)

4.50: Moneta – 3/1 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

5.25: Stay Classy – 8/1 HIlls/PP)

5.55: Danielsflyer – 13/2 (365/BetVictor/Unibet/BetBright)

CHESTER (at 6.00): 

2.35: Magical Effect – 6/1 (Generally available)

3.10: Get The Rhythm – 11/2 (Unibet) – save advised on Fognini

3.45: Hollydaze – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.55: Daybreak – 154/1 (365/Betfair/PP)

5.30: Al Destoor – 17/2 (Unibet)

HAYDOCK (at 6.10):

1.30: Guroor – 4/1 (Hills)

2.05: Borderforce – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.25: Brandon Castle – 20/1 (PP)

RIPON (at 6.20): 

2.30: Off Piste – 6/1 (PP)

3.05: Bashiba – 13/2 (Generally available)

3.35: Documenting – 6/1 (Hills)

4.10: Road To Dubai – 10/1 (Skybet/BetVictor)

5.20: Knightly Spirit – 6/1 (Hills)

MARKET RASEN (at 6.25):

3.25: Buster Thomas – 3.25 (10/1 Hills)

4.35: Kiruna Peak – 9/2 (365)

5.10: Havana Hermeno – (12/1 PP)

CHELMSFORD (at 6.30):

6.15: Love To Breeze – 6/1 (Betfair/PP/Unibet/BetBright)

6.45: Kyllachy Gala – 12/1 (365/BetVictor)

7.15: Gulliver – 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

7.45: Wohileh – 3/1 (Hills)

8.15: Our Lord – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

8.45: Good Business – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

Sep 29

Daily (Newmarket) analysis – Saturday 29th

NEWMARKET – SATURDAY

1.50 (Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes): Aidan O’Brien has snared five renewals of this event, albeit six contests have slipped by since the genial Irish trainer last won the prize.  1999 was the year that Aiden claimed his first success and I guess that Cape Of Good Hope is the pick of his three runners this time around.  That said, Beatboxer is expected to give John Gosden his third successive winner of the race when represented.  The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 11/4, stats which include three clear market leaders and one joint favourite.  Seven favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst 14 of the 25 market leaders reached the frame (exact science) during the study period.

2.25 (Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes): Five favourites have won during the last decade, whilst Aidan comes into the race on a hat trick.  Aidan’s ‘Lowther’ winner Fairyland must go close, though there do not appear to be any cracks in Michael Bell’s winner Pretty Polyanna who has raised her game with every race.  Going back further in time, eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the study period, whilst 13 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.  Eleven of the last twelve winners have scored at a top price of 4/1.

3.00 (Group 1 Middle Park Stakes): By declaring two runners for this event, Aidan O’Brien looks hell bent on getting the record for himself, with the Irish trainer currently being one of seven trainers to have secured four victories in the contest. That said, Aidan is the only modern day trainer in the list, given that the previous ‘recent’ winner (trained by Fred Darling) via the other handlers was recorded back in 1947.  Ten Sovereigns has to be the call though we have to digest the fact that three of the last four winners have scored at 25/1, 22/1 & 10/1.  Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the ‘Middle Park’ during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the fifteen favourites during the period secured Placepot positions.

3.35 (Class 2 Cambridgeshire Handicap): 14 of the last 15 winners of the ‘Cambridgeshire’ have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Five of the first seven horses home in 2012 were drawn twenty or higher (the same ratio from stalls 17+ in 2013) and the draw stats below suggest unless the going is soft, horses from higher numbers tend to hold an edge.  Horse drawn high tend to have the edge (aside from renewals contested on soft/heavy ground), with nine of the last twelve winners have been drawn in double figures.  Indeed, 36/48 horses which claimed Placepot positions during the same period were similarly housed.  John Gosden is the only represented trainer to have won this event twice during the last eleven years, with Wissahickon (drawn 21/35) and Stylehunter (32) expected to lead home his three raiders this time around.  Horses towards the top of the market with definite claims (aside from the afore mentioned Gosden runners) include Very Talented (24) and UAE Prince (13), though Seniority gets a value for money shout from stall 27 at 28/1 with Betfair at the time of writing. Sharja Bridge would have been given a much better chance but from stall eleven, things have not worked perfectly for Roger Varian’s raider.  A week or so ago, Roger’s runners were in good form but a subsequent ratio of 1/11 also means I’m swerving Sharja Bridge, albeit marginally. Although only one favourite has prevailed during the last ten contests, eight market leaders have won during the last 28 years which for a competitive event like this, is a very reasonable record.  Eight of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.

Draw factor–nine furlongs:

2017: 29-22-13-10 (34 ran-good to soft)

2016: 28-35-8-13 (31 ran-good to firm)

2015: 7-1-17-4 (34 ran-good)

2014: 11-28-14-10 (31 ran-good to firm)

2013: 4-28-3-20 (31 ran-good to firm)

2012: 21-7-2-12 (33 ran-good)

2011: 31-5-24-27 (32 ran-good to firm)

2010: 3-20-15-22 (35 ran-soft)

2009: 12-6-34-24 (32 ran-good to firm)

2008: 15-35-34-27 (28 ran-good to firm)

2007: 25-16-31-19 (34 ran-good to firm)

2006: 20-27-21-28 (33 ran-good to soft)

2005: 3-5-6-11 (30 ran-soft)

2004: 33-29-31-18 (32 ran-good)

2003: 19-8-5-12 (24 ran-good to firm)

4.10 (Class 4 seven furlong juvenile maiden event for fillies – Division 1): Too much of a lottery for my liking, though Luca Cumani’s newcomer Swansdown is supposedly a nice type who is said to have a guaranteed future, whatever happens this afternoon.  Lyzbeth caught the eye at Ascot and could well reach the frame with trainer Martyn Meade having secured the Cambridgeshire on the card twelve months ago. Three of the six contests to date were secured by favourites whilst all seven market leaders have reached the frame.

4.10 (Class 4 seven furlong juvenile maiden event for fillies – Division 2): Charlie Appleby’s record of 12/41 on the heath this season is something to behold and Moneta is expected to represent the stable to good effect.  The same stats for division one obviously apply here.

4.45 (Class 2 Nursery event for fillies): Six renewals have slipped by since the last (11/4) favourite obliged, though five of those six winners were (at least) returned in single figures.  Form experts will believe that Winter Light should reverse form with Stay Classy from their last encounter though the 8/1 on offer (Hills and Paddy Power) about the latter named Richard Spencer raider looks big enough. William Haggas has claimed two of the last nine contests, with Wingreen marginally preferred to Seductive of his two entries this time around.

5.20 (Class 2 all aged seven furlong handicap): Six renewals had slipped by since the only (joint) favourite scored at 6/1 during the previous decade before last year’s 5/1 market leader prevailed. That said, eight winners scored at a top price of 10/1 which is a fine record in such a competitive contest. Danielsflyer could be a ‘plot job’ here from David Barron’s shrewd yard, whilst the 7/2 quote about Spanish City looks about right given his consistent first rate efforts this term.

 

Sep 28

Daily (Newmarket) analysis – Friday 28th

NEWMARKET – FRIDAY:

1.50 (Listed Rosemary Stakes): William Haggas is the only represented trainer to have saddled two winners of this race, with the trainer having offered the green light to Beshayyir. William’s raider represents the three-year-old vintage which has claimed four of the last six renewals, whilst Haggas has saddled six corresponding winners at the Friday fixture of this meeting in as many years. Only John Gosden (Laugh Aloud) can beat that figure with nine gold medallists during the study period. We still await the first successful favourite of this race to emerge, though six of the seven winners were returned in single figures which is a good ratio, given the nature of this competitive opening event.

2.25 (Group 3 Princess Royal Nayef Stakes): It is somewhat surprising to find that John Gosden has declared just two runners on the card on a day which he has dominated in recent years.  That said, just three runners represented the yard on the corresponding day twelve months ago, though did not stop John from saddling a 9/1 winner! John saddles Highgarden at around the 12/1 mark in a bid to win the race for the third time in four years. Star Rock appears to be the potential joker in the pack as far as John and his team is concerned this time around. Favourites of one description of or another have won five of the last seven contests, whilst ten of the winners during the last eleven years scored at a top price of 7/1.

3.00 (Group 2 Rockfel Stakes): Lucida (2014) is the only favourite to have won this event during the last eleven years but even then, supporters of Jim Bolger’s filly subsequently had their fingers burned as the Shamardal filly failed to add another victory via eight further assignments.  That said, six of the last eight winners of this race have scored at a top price of 6/1. The prices for this year’s market leaders (around 3/1 give or take) look about right given that last year’s beaten favourite ran off an official mark of 110 when returned as the 2/1 market leader.  The relevant pair at the head of the betting at the time of writing run off 107 this time around. I’m taking two ‘outsiders’ against the fancied runners in Dutch Treat (9/1 with Betfair/Paddy Power) and Dandhu (16/1 with Ladbrokes) from a value for money perspective.

3.35 (Group 2 Joel Stakes): Ten contests during the last eleven years have been won by horses returned at 15/2 or less, statistics which include five successful favourites of one description or another.  I’m a little surprised that Boylesports still go 3/1 about Regal Reality as I had expected Sir Michael Stoute’s Intello colt to have been returned at around 9/4.  There is still time for ‘chalks to be erased’ of course…

4.10 (Class 4 seven furlong juvenile maiden event): As reported last year: A May 21 foaling date is pushing the parameters of the rules almost to boiling point, and such a late birthday might be the reason that Coat Of Arms remains a maiden following five assignments to date.  Well exposed in comparison to his rivals as reported at the time, the even money favourite was turned over twelve months ago. Godolphin boast a strong hand with Velorum (Charlie Appleby) and Estihdaaf (Saeed Bin Suroor) having been declared on this occasion, though the 6/1 general quote of 6/1 about Ouzo swayed me away from the blue colours in the dead of night.

4.45 (Listed Godolphin Stakes): The last eleven renewals have been won by horses starting at a top price of 5/1, statistics which include four successful market leaders.  I opted for the 13/8 winner Frontiersman last year but this year’s contest looks too tough to call, despite only five declarations having been made.

5.20 (Class 2 ‘Silver Cambridgeshire’): You hold a distinct advantage over yours truly, given that you will have watched races/conditions unfold by the time that this cavalry change is contested.  A real pointer could emerge for Saturday’s Cambridgeshire if horses dominate on either side of the track from a draw perspective.  Without such knowledge at the time of writing, I will have to adhere to the following stats and react accordingly.  Three-year-olds have won six of the eight renewals to date whilst surprisingly, every winner scored at a top price of 14/1.  That said, four gold medallists were returned in double figures, whilst two market leaders have prevailed alongside a joint favourite.  If pushed for a nomination, I would opt for three-year-old Escape The City over other each way types such as Cote D’Azur and Jazeel.  The winning stalls thus far: 12-18-1-11-15-25-1-2, listed backwards (12 last year).

Sep 28

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 28th

Thursday’s school report (from my Twitter pages):

Frustrating end to the day as I was only able to offer five placed horses at 22/1 (14/1), 15/2 (9/2), 6/1 (6/1), 9/2 (7/4) & 7/2 (5/1) to add to the winners below…

Three WINNERS in the afternoon at 9/1 (returned at 5/1), 9/2 (5/2) & 4/1 (11/4) – Teacher’s comment: Must do better!  Answer – will do better!

 

FRIDAY’S MMA SERVICE (at 6.30 – last meeting covered): 

NEWMARKET (at 6.00): 

2.25: Star Rock – 5/2 (Betfair/PP/Unibet)

3.00: Dutch Treat – 3/1 (Boylesports)

4.10: Ouzo – 6/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Escape The City – 11/1 (Generally available)

HAYDOCK (at 6.10): 

1.35: Nuit St Georges – 13/2 (Marathon)

2.05: Crimson Skies – 11/2 (Generally available)

2.40: Elheidi – 9/2 (Betfair)

3.50: Blyton – 15/2 (BetBright)

4.25: Fanny By Gaslight – 7/1 (365/BetVictor)

4.55: Crownthorpe – 12/1 (Generally)

5.25: Instant Attraction – 15/2 (PP)

WORCESTER (at 6.20): 

3.25: Northern Beau – 6/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Brillare Momento – 9/1 (Generally available)

4.35: Take A Break – 15/2 (Skybet)

5.35: Mauricio – 3/1 (PP)

NEWCASTLE (at 6.30): 

5.45: Donnachies Girl – 9/1 (Generally available)

6.15: Compton River – 14/1 (PP)

6.45: Bidding War – 9/1 (PP)

7.15: Harbour Approach – 11/4 (365/Ladbrokes)

7.45: Muatadel – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.15: Equiano Springs – 8/1 (Generally available)

8.45: Summer Thunder – 7/1 (Generally available)

 

Sep 27

Daily (Newmarket) analysis – Thursday 27th

NEWMARKET – THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 27:

1.50 (One mile maiden event for juveniles): Four successful favourites emerged from nine renewals during the last eleven, with eight of the nine scorers having been returned at a top price of 7/1.  Charlie Appleby’s Magic Illusion is marginally preferred to John Gosden’s Kick On this time around.

2.25 (One mile Nursery event): Six of the eight winners thus far have carried 8-12 or more to victory, whilst one winning favourite has been recorded to date.  The last six winners have scored at a top price of 13/2.  There is only one race on today’s card where John Gosden holds just a single entry, whereby Daafr is the call.  For the record, John’s Nursery record over the last five years stands at 12/51, the 23.5% strike rate being perfectly acceptable in the two-year-old handicap sector.

3.00 (Seven furlong event for fillies): Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite only beat one horse home in a seven runner contest, whereby confidence is at a low ebb in what looks to be a far more competitive event.  Crafty Madam, Right Direction and Treasure Me make up my trio against the field, the three horses being listed in marginal order of preference.

3.35 (Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes): ‘Team Hannon’ have saddled four of the last seven winners when represented whereby the chance of Floating Artist is respected.  Richard Hannon (Senior) had never won the race until 2009, yet now ‘Team Hannon’ have secured four victories via the last seven contests in recent times when represented.  The real money overnight however was for Cardini, though win and place money arrived on the exchanges for Arctic Sound in no uncertain terms as well. Investors should note that although eight winners during the last eleven years have scored at a top price of 8/1 (stats include four winning favourites), the other gold medallists were returned at 33/1, 25/1 and 14/1.

4.10 (Listed Two mile Rose Bowl Stakes): John Gosden has saddled four winners and a runner up on the last five occasions when his yard was represented and John has declared two three-year-olds with which to go to war on this occasion, namely Sevenna Star and Ben Vrackie.  Five-year-olds have much the best record in the race of late however, having secured five of the last eight renewals.  If John and his team are to be denied this time around, vintage representative St Michel might prove to be the party-pooper.  Relevant trainer Sir Mark Prescott had a runner well beaten yesterday but not before the horse was backed from 14/1 to 5/1 (one of my MMA horses) and it will not be long before the team retrieve their losses if past results are anything to go by. The last two winners of this event scored at 16/1 and 9/2 following a hat trick of victories for market leaders.

4.45 (Class 2 all aged handicap over 12 furlongs): Both favourites (5/4 & 11/8) have won thus far and although on offer at 9/2 with Hills at the time of writing, my selection Another Eclipse could yet go off as the market leader, albeit at a much bigger price that the previous winners of the contest. There will be worse 14/1 chance on the card than King Lud I’ll wager, with Betfair and Paddy Power arguably offering odds a few points over the top about Andrew Balding’s raider.

5.20 (All aged one mile handicap): Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leaders prevailed though to give the scenario a more balanced view, three of the previous five favourites had scored.  John Butler has been known to pull rabbits out of hats down the years, though usually in lower grade races compared to this Class 3 event.  That said, there is money overnight for his 10/1 chance Yuften and in a race that would otherwise have offered no interest to yours truly, a small each investment has been placed with Hills who might find their offices busy this morning from would be investors.  Oisin Murphy’s mount (interesting booking – only his second ride for the trainer) looks more like a 7/1 chance from my viewpoint.

5.55 (Newmarket Challenge Whip): Four favourites have won during the last nine years though in an uncompetitive event such as this, that ratio is not as great as it sounds.  I don’t have a selection to offer as such, though Endlessly and Mauri Bob are offered up as types to give you a reasonable run for your collective monies if you feel you must get involved, hopefully via winnings accrued on the day rather than your own cash.

Sep 27

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 27th

Wednesday’s school report:

Apologies for no updates yesterday on my Twitter page, bodily Malfunction – yet again!

Four WINNERS though, the last of which WON at 25/1, despite yours truly putting it up as a bet at 6.15 yesterday! OTHER WINNERS scored at 8/1 (returned at 4/1), 6/1 (7/2) & 4/1 (7/2) – two seconds at 8/1 & 9/2 which would have added icing on a very tasty cake had they gone one better…

 

THURSDAY’S MMA SERVICE (AT 6.20):

NEWMARKET (at 6.00): 

2.25: Greeley – 7/1 (Betfair)

3.35: Two horses to consider: Cardini (5/2 (Generally available) & Arctic Sound – 9/1 (Hills)

4.45: Another Eclipse – 9/2 (Hills)

5.20: Yuften – 10/1 (Hills)

PONTEFRACT (at 6.05):

2.05: Urban Highway – 9/2 (888/PP)

3.40: Sheepscar Lad – 13/2 (Hills)

4.25: Francis Xavier – 9/2 (Generally available)

5.35: Two horses to consider: Round The Island – 13/2 (Hills) & Show Palace – 10/1 (Generally available)

PERTH (at 6.15): 

2.50: Desert Island Dusk – 16/1 (Hills)

3.25: Tangolan – 8/1 (Generally available)

4.35: Cubomania – 4/1 (Generally available)

5.10: Two horses to consider: Boric – 7/2 Generally available) & Ganbei – 12/1 (Generally available)

5.45: Cockley Beck – 6/4 (365/BetVictor)

KEMPTON (at 6.20): 

5.40: Two outsiders to consider: Um Shama – 11/1 (PP) & Camelot Rakti – 16/1 (365/Hills/BetBright)

6.15: Ring Dancer – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

7.15: Fares Poet – 22/1 (Ladbrokes)

7.45: Scottish Blade – 9/1 (Betfair/)PP)

8.15: Volcanic Sky – 7/2 (BetBright)

9.15: Fantasy Justifier – 8/1 (365)

 

Sep 26

Daily (Goodwood) analysis – Wednesday 26th

GOODWOOD – SEPTEMBER 26

 

2.00: It’s interesting to note that despite Charlie Appleby having saddled the last two winners of this event, Charlie is not represented today.  Indeed, Charlie has only sent twelve runners to Goodwood this season, even though three of his inmates won their respective races.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Pablo Escobarr should improve the decent ratio of favourites (see stats below) in the opening event, though I would not go near a 4/7 chance which is contesting its fourth race as a maiden personally.  That said, William Haggas boasts seasonal stats of 6/34 at Goodwood which given the competitive nature of the sport on offer here, is not a bad strike rate at all.

Favourite factor: Eleven of the fourteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winners.

 

2.35: I’m not at all sure how many more times we can watch South Seas flatter to deceive, both in the betting ring and in his subsequent races.  Andrew Balding’s raider remains a horse of unquestionable talent but there comes a time for any horse that stops winning when it enters my ‘last chance saloon’ and Andrew’s four-year-old Lope De Vega gelding has just walked through the swinging doors of the bar.

Favourite factor: This is a new race in the Goodwood card.

 

3.05: Nine of the eleven winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the likes of each way types such as Charming Guest and Swanton Blue.  Sitting two pounds above the ‘superior’ weight barrier sits Lady Dancealot and with Gerald Mosse boasting current figures of 5/14 for trainer David Elsworth, the chance of the three-year-old has to be respected, especially as vintage representatives have won four of the last seven renewals.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last eleven renewals though be warned, because three of the last five gold medallists have scored at 33/1, 20/1 & 14/1.  Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last sixteen renewals (including six of the last eleven) of this Listed event without being represented every year.   Plutonian is the vintage call this year, though Threading is a really interesting contender and not only because he is Mark Johnston’s only runner at Goodwood today, a venue where he has excelled down the years. First sitting is the other potential winner in a fascinating contest from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last nineteen years was returned at just 10/1 (seven years ago).

 

4.10: Codicil was a 14/1 chance when my MMA (Goodwood) service was offered up at 6.00 but all that has gone now, with Sir Mark Prescott’s raider as short as 9/1 in a place.  Mark saddled the runner up last year (beaten favourite – by a neck) and the trainer (and we) obviously hope to go one better this time around!  Graceland finished well beaten in the race last year but shrewd trainer Michael Bell runs his six-year-old again off a four pound lower mark – but carrying seven pounds less than she did twelve months ago.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.  Last year’s 7/2 market leader found one too good, an 11/1 chance from Mark Johnston’s yard.

 

4.40: Although the basic form figures of Master Carpenter do not look inspiring, it could just be that the 5/1 trade press quote will look well over the top by the time that flag fall arrives; win, lose or draw.

Favourite factor: This is another new race in the Goodwood programme.

 

5.10: Captain Lars deserves his place at the head of the market and should prove tough to beat again, hailing from Archie Watson’s impressive yard.  Who Told Jo Jo is offered up as the each way speculative option.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won four of the last seven renewals of the finale.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.