Aug 06

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Monday 6th

WINDSOR – AUGUST 6

Five year corresponding stats for this meeting:

32 races – 12 winning favourites – 24/32 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer:

3 winners—Eve Johnson Houghton (33/1, 18/1 & 10/3**) – 2 runners tonight (Eve’s only entries until Wednesday): Lively Lydia (6.00) & Running Cloud (7.00)

 

  • Current Nursery stats (with even more stats to digest now) can be found below the Windsor details – includes this week’s Nursery schedule

 

5.30: Chris Wall does well with his runners at Yarmouth and there is a two-day fixture at the seaside track this week (Wednesday/Thursday).  I often note his runners at other venues when racing us due on the east coast whereby The Fiddler attracts the eye at first glance this morning.  Chris has saddled over 30 more winners at Yarmouth that at any other turf track though you might be interesting to learn that Windsor and the July course at Newmarket sit joint second on his list since Chris took out a licence thirty years ago.  Others of interest include Miss M and another potential win and place type in Poucor.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished out with the washing, though it was not all pain sailing for the bookmakers as the next three horses in the market filled the frame.

Small each way interest: The Fiddler

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/6—Betsalottie (soft) – 0/12 on turf at other venues

1/2—Miss M (good to firm)

 

6.00: For all her great achievements last season and having started this campaign in good spirits too, it’s not often that I type up the name of Eve Johnson Houghton as the leading trainer at a meeting, whereby Lively Lydia is the call, especially as Eve’s two runners on the card here are her only potential declarations until Wednesday at the earliest at the time of writing.  You will be in a better position to dwell on those potential runners on Wednesday when the final entries are announced later this morning.  Others in the mix here include Dawn Affair and (possibly) Cedar, especially if there is any market support for the latter named entry.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite found one too good when snaring the silver medal, three lengths adrift of the winner.

Win selection to minimum stakes: Lady Lydia

 

6.30: Four-year-olds have won the last five renewals, with just two vintage representative having been declared this time around.  Stuart Williams (Daschas) and Clive Cox (Dark Power) are the only trainers to have reacted to the recent ‘edge’ and both horses could reward each way investors.  If one of the junior raiders proves too strong from a win perspective, Encrypted could be the potential joker in the pack.  With Ed Walker having declared a duo that also possess claims, my money is saved for other races on the card.

Favourite factor: Eight of the sixteen favourites have reached the frame to date (four winners), whilst other gold medallists have included those returned at 25/1-25/1-20/1-18/1-16/1-8/1-7/1-13/2.

Record of the four course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Buridan (good to firm)

3/8—Rio Rinaldo (2 x good & good to firm) – 2/20 elsewhere on turf

1/6—Major Pusey (good to soft)

1/2—Daschas (good)

 

7.00: It may have escaped your attention that John Gosden only saddled four horses at Goodwood last week and having run just six runners since Thursday, John is running his inmates sparingly just now though for what reason, I’m not at all sure.  Accordingly, it will be interesting to see how his three runners on this card perform, the first of which is George Villiers.  The official assessor has been kind to the recent Newmarket winner who has been raised by just sixteen ounces which should ensure that John’s Galileo colt is in the firing line at the business end of the contest.  Eve Johnson Houghton’s other runner on the card is Running Cloud who might just occupy the forecast position ahead of two much shorter priced horses in the market.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Win selection: George Villiers – mainly because of the marginal increase in weight, especially for a John Gosden trained winner…

 

7.30: Doctor Wonderful has been the subject of each way (bet to nothing) support overnight and Clive Cox’s raider could prevail in a race that will not take a great deal of winning in all honesty.  A watching brief in is order for John Gosden’s Whitlock who is unlikely to represent value for money, whilst the best chance for a ‘roughie’ to emerge triumphant could prove to be Tripartite from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 10/3 market leader finished nearer last than first before last year’s 7/2 joint favourite filled the forecast positions.

Potential each way ‘steal’?  Doctor Wonderful if you can get 5/1 by the time you read this message…

 

8.00: A race to watch (and record) without getting involved financially I’ll wager (if that’s not a contradiction in terms) with at least a couple of potential winners in the field, notwithstanding a minimum of three other entries whose connections will have live each way aspirations.

Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Windsor programme.

 

8.30: Four of the last five contests have gone the way of junior raiders (as is often the case in these events) and I expect the trend to continue with United Kingdom possibly best serving the vintage on this occasion.  Certainly, the 11/2 quote by Betfair & Paddy Power at the time of writing looks too big and each way investors should cash in on the place part of the wager, even if Paul Cole’s Equiano gelding fails to score.  Good to firm course winners Grey Galleon and Look Surprised should also be in contention when jockey raise their whips close home.

Favourite factor: Only two of the last nine renewals have been won by favourites during which time, gold medallists have also scored at 25/1, 16/1, 12/1, 9/1 & 15/2.

Each way play at 11/2: United Kingdom

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/2—Grey Galleon (good to firm)

1/2—Look Surprised (good to firm)

1/5—Sandfrankskipsgo (good to firm) – 3/35 on other turf tracks

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races scheduled for this week:

Monday – None

Tuesday: 3.55 Newbury – 5.50 Nottingham –6.10 Ayr

Wednesday: 3.10 Brighton

Thursday: 6.20 Newcastle

Friday: 2.10 Musselburgh – 7.20 Haydock – 5.55 & 7.00 Chelmsford

Saturday: 2.35 Newmarket & 7.15 Lingfield

 

Nursery stats this season (31 races – 243 runners – as of Monday morning – 6th August):

Favourite stats (33):                     

15 winners – 3 placed – 15 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Winning trainers:

4/5—Archie Watson (11/2, 5/1, 12/5 & 6/5*) – stats of 1/14 last year

3/16—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**) – 14/156 last year

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2) – 3/21 last year

2/3—Nigel Tinkler (16/1 & 7/2) – 4/27 last year

2/3—Stuart Williams (11/1 & 7/4*) – 0/11 last year

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*) – 0/17 last year

2/6—Kevin Ryan (13/2 & 6/4*) – 2/18 last year

1/1—Tony Coyle (4/1) – 1/2 last year

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*) – 0/4 last year

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*) – 0/2 last year

1/2—William Jarvis (6/1) – 0/1 last year

1/3—Charlie Appleby (4/6*) – 4/9 last year

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*) – 3/16 last year

1/3—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1) – 1/15 last year

1/3—Hugo Palmer (11/4) – 2/21 last year

1/5—Keith Dalgleish (11/10*) – 4/54 last year

1/6—David Evans (11/4*) – 10/75 last year

1/6—Richard Spencer (7/2) – 0/1 last year

1/8—Michael Bell (11/4*) – 1/10 last year

1/19—Mark Johnston (8/13*) – 17/107 last year

1/22—Richard Hannon (7/4*) – 16/124 last year

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

Stats of first three in the betting:

93 relevant runners: 27 winners – 20 placed – 46 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

132 runners – 27 winners – 27 placed – 78 unplaced (54.3% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

111 runners – 4 winners – 14 placed – 93 unplaced (45.7% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 19 winners – 20 placed – 75 unplaced (46.9% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 21 placed – 96 unplaced (53.1% of total numbers)

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Robert Cowell – 0/2 last year

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Fellowes

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Linda Perratt

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Roger Varian

0/2—Alan Berry

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Mick Easterby

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Iain Jardine

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Adrian Nicholls

0/2—Sir Mark Prescott

0/2—Bryan Smart

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Andrew Balding

0/3—Karl Burke

0/3—Tom Clover

0/3—Roger Fell

0/3—Brian Meehan

0/3—Ed Dunlop

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Declan Carroll

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Richard Hughes

0/6—Tim Easterby

0/8—Mick Channon

0/10—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

2—Society Rock

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Kyllachy

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

12 winners—February

9—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY WINNERS (+ other Nursery details) THIS SEASON:

2 wins (Leicester & Newmarket) – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins (Ripon & Wolverhampton) – Implicit (73 & 80)

2 wins (Thirsk & Newmarket) – Princess Power (63 & 71)

2 wins (Nottingham & Goodwood) – Don Armado (76 & 85) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (LIngfield – turf) – Barend Boy (79)

1 win (Thirsk) – Broken Spear (79)

1 win (Chelmsford) – Buckingham (76)

1 win (Ffos Las) – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win (Sandown) – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win (Musselburgh) – Diamonique (71)

1 win (Thirsk) – Izvestia (74)

1 win (Catterick) – Jfoul (79)

1 win (York) – Kodyanna (83)

1 win (Haydock) – Luchador (72)

1 win (Goodwood) – More Than This (88)

1 win (Pontefract) – Octave (86)

1 win (Hamilton) – Princes Des Sables (68)

1 win (Chester) – Quiet Endeavour (85)

1 win (Ascot) – Semoum (83)

1 win (York) – Society Queen (76)

1 win (Bath) – Leoube (71) & 1 unplaced (83)

1 win (Catterick) – Lady Katy (65) & 1 unplaced (70)

1 win (Newbury) – Leading Spirit (76) & 1 unplaced (82)

1 win (Lingfield – turf) – North Korea (65) & 1 unplaced (69)

1 win (Doncaster) – Porcelain Girl (71) & 1 unplaced (78)

1 win (Chester) – Revich (78) & 1 unplaced (85)

1 win (York) – The Great Heir (77) & 1 unplaced (90)

Aug 05

Daily analysis & Nursery service

CHESTER – AUGUST 5

 

Five year corresponding stats for this meeting:

35 races – 10 winning favourites – 31/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Tom Dascombe (8/1, 4/1, 10/3, 3/1, 15/8* & 13/8*) – 9 runners: Jensue (1.50), Wild Edric & Sevenhillsfromrome (2.25), Silver Character (3.30), Finoah (4.05), Dragons Tail & Mickey (4.40) & Red Force One & Glorious Player (5.10)

 

  • Market Rasen overview listed below Chester’s race by race analysis but before today’s Nursery details….

 

1.50: Tom Dascombe has saddled four of the last six winners of this contest with the trainer having offered the green light to Jensue on this occasion.  That said, all of Tom’s nine Nursery runners this season (stats of 9/58 last year) have been beaten.  Archie Watson failed to make it 4/4 in the two-year-old handicap sector yesterday though to be entirely fair, his runner (Quiet Waters) became extremely over-heated in the stalls and was subsequently tailed off.  Better things are expected of stable companion Quiet Endeavour today though if he is made the favourite in the contest, the worrying aspect is that 7/18 beaten favourites in Nursery events this season – have carried 9-7.  Where else can you read this type of nonsense?!!! For that reason personally, I’m hoping that Hafeet Alain is returned as the market leader.  For the record, two of the 30 Nursery events have been won by horses carrying 9-7 this season.

Favourite factor: All 13 winners in as many years have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.  Ten of the thirteen market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.

Win Selection: Quiet Endeavour

 

2.25: The Trader is strong in the betting this morning without being a ‘market mover’ as such and the plum draw in trap one was all trainer Mark Johnston could have wished for.  Mark is probably within a fortnight of becoming the most successful trainer of all time in terms of the number of winners saddled and The Trader should take Mark one step closer this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite finished out with the washing.

Win selection: The Trader

 

3.00: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured ten of the last twelve contests, with Major Jumbo appearing to attract the majority of early morning money today.  Kevin Ryan won with his last two runners at Hamilton last night (36/1 double) and connections of ‘Jumbo’ should be in with a good shout of snaring this prize.  That said, Kimberella boasts a fine record at this venue (see below) hand having scored on all types of ground in the process, last year’s winner can be expected to offer another bold display.  Three of his last four victories have been gained in short field events which adds confidence = no bet.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the last thirteen years during which time, three clear market leaders and one joint favourite prevailed.

Record of the two course winners in the third race:

3/7—Kimberella (good – good to firm – good to soft) – won this event last year

1/3—Gabrial The Saint (good)

 

3.30: Although the Chester record of Gabrial’s King fails to set the pulse racing, it’s worth looking at Richard Fahey’s raider at all tracks.  Few owners would turn away a horse which has won 10/80 races, notwithstanding decent prize money for having finished second on no fewer than 15 occasions!  With a five pound claimer aboard today, Gabrial’s King offers some win and place value at 9/1 (Hills) this morning. The main money overnight however was for Gossip Column who was an 11/2 chance when I reported my MMA findings this morning but is now as short as 7/2 in a place (Coral).

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Chester card.

Record of the four course winners in the field:

1/6—Jabbaar (good)

1/2—Gossip Column (good to firm)

1/21—Gabrial’s King (good)

1/2—Berkshire Royal (good to firm)

Win selection: Gossip Column

Each way saver: Gabrial’s KIng

 

4.05: As trappy a race as you should wish to find on a quiet Sunday morning, despite the strength of the ‘tips on’ favourite Rockin Roy who is 10/11 almost right across the board.  I cannot offer one outstanding individual against the favourite as such, but at least three horses have genuine claims on the best of their respective form lines whereby “no bet” is the call.

Favourite factor: Only two of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions via four renewals thus far, stats which include one (5/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/4—Gabrial The Wire (good to firm) – has only raced at this venue to date

 

4.40: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals (11/1 runner up twelve months ago – the lone vintage representative was beaten ‘three parts’), though three relevant declarations have been made this time around. Hells Babe has come out best in terms of the draw, though whether Mick Appleby’s raider will be able to repel likely challenges from Kaeso and Welliesinthewater close home is open to question.  Penwortham is another who should not be far away from the action at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of the four course winners in the sixth event:

3/9—Penwortham (2 x good & good to firm) – all five wins on turning tracks

2/5—Dragons Tail (good & good to firm) – 0/9 elsewhere

1/1—San Souci Bay  (good)

1/11—Rene Mathis (good to firm)

Each way selection to small stakes: Hells Babe

 

5.10: Muligatawny runs in this Horseradish Handicap which makes it a hot race to win at the ‘getting out’ stage of the meeting!  Apologies for the play on words, though I genuinely believe that Roger Fell’s five-year-old has a good a chance as any – and better than most with a trap three position aiding and abetting his cause.  Roger’s gelding only has a bronze medal to show for three previous sorties on the Roodee but I’m expecting Tony Hamilton’s mount to improve his ratio today, especially given his win and place 6/1 quote at the time of writing.  Other each way types to consider include Bell Heather and Fleeting Freedom from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Three market leaders to date only have silver and bronze medals to their name, the other favourite having finished out with the washing twelve months ago.

Record of the three course winners in the finale:

1/8—Dark Devil (heavy) – has won on good ground

2/20—Gabrial’s Kaka (2 x good)

1/4—Berlusca (good)

Each way selection: Muligatawny

 

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Market Rasen today:

Dan Skelton has saddled nine of his last seventeen runners to winning effect, all winners returned as successful favourites.  Dan’s seven runners on today’s card all look like being the market leaders in their respective events.

 

 

Today’s Nursery event:

1.50 Chester:

Tom Dascombe has saddled four of the last six winners of this contest with the trainer having offered the green light to Jensue on this occasion.

That said, all of Tom’s nine Nursery runners this season (stats of 9/58 last year) have been beaten.

Archie Watson failed to make it 4/4 in the two-year-old handicap sector yesterday though to be entirely fair, his runner (Quiet Waters) became extremely over-heated in the stalls and was subsequently tailed off.

Better things are expected of stable companion Quiet Endeavour today though if he is made the favourite in the contest, the worrying aspect is that 7/18 beaten favourites in Nursery events this season – have carried 9-7.

For that reason personally, I’m hoping that Hafeet Alain is returned as the market leader.  For the record, two of the 30 Nursery events have been won by horses carrying 9-7 this season.

All 13 winners in as many years have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.  Ten of the thirteen market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.

Nursery stats this season (30 races – 238 runners – as of Sunday morning – 5th August):

Favourite stats (32):                     

14 winners – 3 placed – 15 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/5

Trainers of beaten favourites:

4—Mark Johnston (4/7, 8/11, 7/4 & 7/2)

Charlie Appleby (11/8)

Andrew Balding (6/1**)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Declan Carroll (9/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Keith Dalgleish (11/8)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Roger Varian (6/1**)

 

Stats of first three in the betting:

90 relevant runners: 26 winners – 19 placed – 45 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

129 runners – 26 winners – 26 placed – 77 unplaced (54.2% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

109 runners – 4 winners – 14 placed – 91 unplaced (45.8% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 18 winners – 20 placed – 74 unplaced (47.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 12 winners – 20 placed – 94 unplaced (52.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

7 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-11

One at 8-9

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Camacho

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

2—Slade Power

1—Battle Of Marengo

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Clodovil

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Kyllachy

1—Monsieur Bond

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pastoral Pursuits

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

12 winners—February

8—March

7—April

3—January

None to date–May

Aug 05

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 5th

Saturday’s school report:

20/1 WINNER Gifted Master was one of ‘only’ four horses mentioned in my analysis of the Steward’s Cup yesterday, continuing the good run of results in big races on Saturdays which now stands at four successive weeks in total.

There was (unfortunately) only one MMA winner to report however, which was returned at 7/1 having been offered at 8/1 at 6.30 yesterday morning.

The well backed horses which somehow ‘got away’ are to many to name suffice to say, that six second placed horses added so much frustration to the day when offered at 10/1 (returned at 6/1), 8/1 (10/1), 6/1 (same SP), 11/2 (3/1), 9/2 (4/1) & 7/2 (11/4).

 

  • Best prices for today’s main football matches listed below the racing offering….

SUNDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

CHESTER:

1.50: Hafeet Alain – 15/8 (Ladbrokes/Unibet/BetBright)

3.00: Major Jumbo – 11/4 (Generally available)

3.30: Gossip Column – 11/2 (Marathon)

4.40: Kaeso – 7/1 (PP)

5.10: Mulligatawny – 6/1 (Generally available)

MARKET RASEN: 

1.30: Breakfast – 10/3 (Skybet/BetVictor)

2.35: Bannys Lad – 16/1 (365)

3.10: Vinnie Red – 8/1 (888)

3.40: Lough Salt – 10/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle)

4.50: Cyrano Star – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

ABERDEEN V RANGERS – 1.00 Kick off – LIVE ON SKY:

9/4–Aberdeen (Boylesports)

62/25–Draw (Marathon)

7/5–Rangers (Generally available)

Half time betting:

29/10–Aberdeen (Ladbrokes/Coral)

111/100–Draw (Marathon)

11/5–Rangers (Hills)

CHELSEA V MANCHESTER CITY – 3.00 kick off – LIVE ON BT SPORT

23/20–Manchester City (365)

137/50–Draw (Marathon)

67/25–Chelsea (Marathon)

Half time betting:

19/11–Manchester City (188)

13/10–Draw (Betway)

61/20–Chelsea (Marathon)

LEEDS V STOKE – 4.30 Kick off (Championship match)

2/1–Leeds (Generally available)

119/50–Draw (Marathon)

8/5–Stoke (PP/Betfred)

Half time betting:

131/50–Leeds (Marathon)

11/10–Draw (365)

23/10–Stoke (PP)

 

Aug 04

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Saturday 4th

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 4

 

Seven year corresponding stats for this meeting:

49 races – 14 winning favourites – 33/49 started at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 11/1, 7/1, 6/1, 9/2, 10/3, 5/2*** & 11/8*) – 11 runners on the card

 

  • Five year Newmarket stats can be found below the race by race analysis for Goodwood and before today’s Nursery details

 

1.50: The last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5 which marginally goes against Boy In The Bar who is seeking to give Ryan Moore his sixth winner of the ‘Glorious’ week.  Trainer Ian Williams is a past master at sorting out these handicap to great effect whereby I expect Ryan to be in the thick of things inside the furlong marker, despite the 16 ounce ‘reversal’.  Golden Steps is another fancied horse to keep on the right side I’ll wager and from those at the other end of the market, Holiday Magic and Related could outrun their odds to potential each way effect.

Favourite factor: Just four of the last sixteen favourites have finished in the frame (one winner – last year) since four consecutive market leaders obliged between 2000 and 2003.

Each way selection: Boy In The Bar

Outsider option? Holiday Magic

 

2.25: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 6-5 via the last 14 renewals of this event, whilst horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 have held the call of late, with five runners (seemingly) eliminated from the foot of the handicap this time around.  I offer a little note of caution regarding the weight trends on this occasion however because of the 9-1 mark allotted to last year’s winner Soldier In Action from Mark Johnston’s shrew yard.  That said, Mark has offered the green light to five inmates so I guess anything could happen this time around.  The top pair at the head of the market should certainly be contesting for honours at the business end of proceedings, namely Melting Dew and Walton Street.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 18 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (four winners) during the last 17 years.

Win selection: Walton Street

 

3.00: Sir Michael Stoute boasts ten victories down the years (Electric was his first winner back in 1982 with Greville Starkey in the plate) and many punters will latch onto the chance of SUN MAIDEN in a disappointing turnout for a Class 1 event.  Readers might think it strange that I nominated Bombyx as a threat to the selection but there has been support on the exchanges overnight and in what might turn out to be a muddle of a contest, 12/1 certainly caught my eye about James Fanshawe’s recent Doncaster winner in the dead of night.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders of one description or another have won six of the last eleven renewals of the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, whilst the last thirteen gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 7/1.

Win selection: Sun Maiden

Tiny saver? Bombyx

 

3.35: 15 of the last 22 winners of the Stewards Cup have contested Royal Ascot’s Wokingham Stakes en route to lifting this prize, whist 15 gold medallists during the period hailed from the four and five-year-old ranks (four-year-olds have won six times during the last fourteen years).  Eight of the last thirteen winners carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Taking all the stats and facts into account, my extended ‘short list’ consists of Spring Loaded, Tis Marvellous, Glenamoy Lad and Gifted Master.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the nineteen favourites during the last fifteen years have secured Placepot positions which is a phenomenal record in such a competitive event.  Those stats include five successful favourites which equates to market leaders having produced a level stake profit of sixteen points during the last fourteen years.  Last year’s investors in the favourite were given no chance when Sir Dancealot was sleepy in the stalls whilst enduring traffic problems in the middle part of the contest.

Each way selection: Spring Loaded

Outsider to consider: Glenamoy Lad

 

4.15: ‘Team Hannon’ has secured four of the last fifteen renewals (runner up twelve months ago), statistics which include three of the last eleven contests. Richard saddles Fox Power and Glory this time around and from a Placepot perspective, I am happy to leave it to the stable companions to represent yours truly in the penultimate leg, information offered in case you are placing a similar bet yourself this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last twenty two favourites have claimed Placepot positions whilst four market leaders prevailed from a win perspective.

 

4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-9 which eliminates the bottom four horses in the handicap on this occasion.  It’s difficult to get away from Restive Spirit here, with the three-year-old colt representing the leading trainer and jockey at the ‘Glorious Goodwood’ this week.  William Haggas has complicated things to a fashion however by also declaring Nicklaus though with Ryan Moore aboard the selection, I’m happy to give Restive Spirit the call.  That said, there will be worse outsiders on the card than Lake Volta I’ll wager.

Favourite factor: We still await the first winning favourite during the (20 year) study period, whilst 10 market leaders claimed Placepot positions since I started researching the contest.  Last year’s investors on the market leader had to watch their nomination trail in last of the seven runners.

Win selection: Festive Spirit

Each way option: Lake Volta

 

5.15: This race comes with a government health warning as you can see below relating to the favourite factor ratios.  Ten different trainers have saddled the winners during the last decade which also tells you all you need to know, though it’s worth noting that five four-year-olds have scored during the study period, whilst seven gold medallists were burned with a minimum weight of 9-4.  Taking those much needed stats into account, my trio against the other eleven contenders consists of Poetic Force (one of only two four-year-olds in field), Waarif and Mister Music.  The latter named stable companion of Poetic Force could be the third consecutive winner to score at odds of 25/1 or more from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Six of the last nine renewals have been won by horses returned in double figures, the last two of which scored at 28/1 and 25/1.  Just one (11/8) favourite has scored during the last decade.

Win selection: Poetic Force

Each way option: Mister Music

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for Newmarket this afternoon:

35 races – 7 winning favourites – 28/35 winners scored at a top price of 10/1

Leading trainers:

John Gosden (5/1, 4/1 & 7/4*), Charlie Appleby (5/2, 5/2* & 7/4*) and Richard Hannon (8/1, 10/2 & 2/1**) are all on the three winner mark – all three trainers saddle runners today on the July course….

 

Nursery races today:

2.40 Newmarket:

Archie Watson did us another favour yesterday and takes his 3/3 ratio in the two-year-old handicap sector into this Nursery event today with his unbeaten Society Rock filly Quiet Waters who looks great value at 9/1 at the time of writing.

Archie’s April positively bounced off good to firm conditions on both occasions and with the sun beating down at Newmarket today, Ed Greatrex can steer the bandwagon on to complete the horse/trainer/jockey hat trick.

Porcelain girl has already won a Nursery event which definitely makes her a threat (despite the seven pound hike in the weights), whilst Strings Of Life completes my trio against the field, marginally ahead of Thriving.

 

5.50 Hamilton:

Keith Dalgleish (saddled a Nursery winner yesterday) looks to have found an ideal opportunity for Howzer Black to gain compensation for a defeat in Newbury’s ‘Super Sprint’, obviously appreciating this step down in grade.  Keith has also offered the green light to Northern Society which makes for interesting reading, whilst Zebzardee will be attempting to add to Richard Fahey’s trio of two-year-old handicap winners this season.

That said, Richard might be on the four winner mark in the sector if Posh Perfect won the Newmarket Nursery event earlier today.

Nursery stats this season (28 races – 216 runners – as of Saturday morning – 4th August):

Favourite stats (29): 14 winners – 3 placed – 12 unplaced

Stats of first three in the betting:

84 relevant runners: 25 winners – 18 placed – 41 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

117 runners – 25 winners – 24 placed – 68 unplaced (54.2% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

99 runners – 3 winners – 12 placed – 84 unplaced (45.8% of total runners)

Weights – Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 18 winners – 18 placed – 66 unplaced (47.2% of runners)

8-13 or less: 10 winners – 18 placed – 86 unplaced (52.8% of total numbers)

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

5 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

One at 8-9

 

Aug 04

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 4th

Thursday’s school report:

Still hitting the woodwork far too often –  though two winners emerged at 6/1 (returned at 10/3) & 15/8 (6/5) – most horses are still being well backed as were the six placed horses at  11/1 (15/2) – 13/2 (4/1) – 6/1 (9/2) – 11/2 (4/1) – 9/2 (3/1) & 7/2 (2/1) – Horses finishing out of the frame included those at 14/1 (7/1), 14/1 (9/1), 10/1 (9/2), 8/1 (9/2), 13/2 (4/1) & 5/1 (5/2) – The tide WILL turn – hopefully today, following last Saturday’s wonderful day!

 

  • Leading trainer/jockey details at Glorious Goodwood below

 

SATURDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

GOODWOOD:

1.50: Golden Steps – 10/1 (365)

2.25: Two horses to consider; Walton Street 4/1 (365/Marathon/888) & Soldier In Action – 10/1 (365)

3.00: Bombyx – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.40: Two horses to consider: Spring Loaded – 8/1 (Generally available) & Glenamoy Lad – 16/1 (365)

4.15: Glory – 172 (365/BetVictor)

4.50: Lake Volta – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.25: The Night Porter (Generally available)

NEWMARKET: 

2.05: Galmarley – 8/1 (Betfair/PP/Boyle)

2.40: Quiet Waters – 9/1 (Generally available)

3.15: Posted – 7/2 (365)

3.50: Maksab – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/BetVictor)

5.00: Paddy The Chef – 15/2 (Betfair/PP)

DONCASTER: 

4.05: Carbon Dating – 20/1 (Generally available)

5.15: Rickyroadboy – 11/2 (Skybet/Ladbrokes)

5.45: Penny Pot Lane – 6/1 (Skybet/Coral)

THIRSK:

1.45: Bartle Hill – 7/2 (365)

2.50: Orion’s Bow – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.25: Mon Beau Rivage – 14/1 (365)

4.35: Roller – 15/2 Skybet)

LINGFIELD:

5.30: Boycie – 10/1 (Generally available)

8.05: The Paddocks – 10/3 (Skybet/BetVictor)

HAMILTON:

8.20: Flying Focus – 6/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.50: Fivehundredmiles – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

CHELMSFORD:

2.45: Rude Awakening – 11/2 (Generally available)

3.20: Emphatic – 10/1 (BetVictor)

4.30: Wallflower – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.05: Baz (Generally available)

 

Glorious Goodwood details this week:

Leading trainer – 4 winners – William Haggas (4/16 at 13/2*, 9/2*, 9/2* & 3/1*) – 2 runners today

Leading rider – 5 winners – Ryan Moore (5/23 at 7/1, 6/1, 9/2*, 5/2* & 6/5*) – 6 booked rides today

William and Ryan team up with Restive Spirit in the 4.50 this afternoon!

 

 

Aug 03

Daily analysis and Nursery service – Friday 3rd

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 3

Seven year corresponding stats for day four of the meeting:

49 races – 51 winners via 2 dead heats – 16 winning favourites – 41/51 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

8 winners—‘Team Hannon’ (four for Richard junior at 9/2, 7/2**, 15/8* & 2/5*) – 5 runners today

 

  • Corresponding stats for Newmarket for Newmarket this evening can be found below Goodwood’s race by race analysis and before today’s Nursery service which produced a 5/1 winner and a placed horse at 14/1 yesterday….

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last seventeen renewals, whilst securing 15 of the last 30 available Placepot positions. With Sir Michael Stoute on a hat trick in the contest, four-year-old Mirage Dancer is the call with the trainer definitely holding a chance of landing a first and last race double on the card.  Second Step could snare the runner up position for the second consecutive time in the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst 13 of the 23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Mirage Dancer 

 

2.25: Charlie Appleby’s Glorious Journey looks a tad big at 15/2 in a few places at the time of writing, though I’m adding William Buick’s mount into the equation purely from a value for money perspective in this ‘short field’ contest. Despite the lack of numbers, too many of the other runners have opportunities to snare this prize to take the race too seriously.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Minimum each way option: Glorious Journey

 

3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last six winners of the contest when represented and it’s interesting to note that ‘Frankie’ has been booked to ride Poet’s Society here with an each way chance, especially as an uncontested lead could be on the cards.  It might prove best to wait until finding out if that scenario unfolds before placing a bet.  Fire Brigade is another win and place call to consider, possibly alongside Borderforce and last year’s winner Master The World.  I have run out of patience with South Seas, whereby now might be the right time for you to wade into Andrew Balding’s frustrating (though talented) inmate.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed in the last 21 years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

3.35: Battaash boasts obvious claims to follow up his victory in the race last year, though regular readers will be aware that I tend to sidestep these ‘superior’ sprint races given that the form book flies out of the window all too frequently.  Media types hail these “superstars” far too often and the truth of the matter is that there have been no great sprinters for several years now, none that totally dominate the sector at any rate.  Sioux Nation might be the latest ‘party-pooper’, though speculative investors could do worse that to consider the win and place claims of Michael Bell’s dark horse Main Desire, whilst Havana Grey is expected to run his race.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 21 years, whilst twelve market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.10: The last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3. Charlie Appleby appears to have found a fine opportunity for Leading Spirit in order to maintain his perfect (1/1) start in the Nursery sector this season.  Well in here by some ten pounds according to the official assessor, William Buick’s mount might only need to be steered in the right direction to score, though we have heard such comments once or twice before!  If you generally oppose 6/4 chances in such big fields, I guess there are worse each way options that Tin Hat (despite hailing from the wrong end of the handicap) and Swiss Cross at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively at the time of writing.  The chance of Jungle Inthebungle is not entirely written off either; despite the general 25/1 quote.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the last 21 jollies have reached the frame. That said, Seven of the last 18 winners of this nursery event have scored at 25/1–20/1–20/1–16/1–12/1–10/1–10/1.

 

4.40: Three-year-olds have won 15 of the last 21 renewals and vintage representatives are around the 8/11 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, as long as further non-runners fail to rear their ugly heads before flag fall.  French raiders have snared the last three renewals which is an obvious pointer towards the chance of Sequilla.  Mick Channon is running his horses sparingly at Goodwood this week despite saddling a winner already whereby I’ll take a chance that Dan’s Dream can revert to winning ways at a decent price this afternoon, for all that the Sequilla might prove difficult to beat.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst 13 of the 21 market leaders throughout the study period claimed Placepot positions.

Each way selection: Dan’s Dream

 

5.15: Slightly upped in trip here by trainer Tom Dascombe, Epaulement has been supported on the exchanges overnight and it is not difficult to see why.  Two fine efforts at Haydock of late have been recorded whereby the 11/1 general quote is worth a nibble, or perhaps even more if the day has treated you well before Goodwood’s finale.  Others to consider include Baritone and Howman.  Sir Michael Stoute’s first named raider could be a blot on the handicap at the price I guess though at the odds on offer, Epaulement is the win and place call.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won three of the last seven renewals during which time, six of the seven winners were returned at a top price of 4/1.  The three previous scorers however were sent off at 25/1, 16/1 & 14/1.

Each way selection: Epaulement

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for Newmarket this evening:

34 races – 13 winning favourites – 31/34 winners scored at a atop price of 12/1

Leading trainer:

A trio of trainers have saddled three winners, the pick of which is (arguably) Andrew Balding (10/1, 9/1 & 13/2) who has one runner on the card at 5.50, namely Pilgrim Soul.

 

Today’s Nursery races:

1.40 Thirsk:

Archie Watson gave us a nice (5/1) Nursery winner yesterday and the trainer attempts 3/3 stats in the sector this season with Investia.

Without getting too technical in this four runner event, Holy Doyle’s mount has New Winds to beat.

2.10 Thirsk:

Deviner deserves her place at the head of the market this morning and investors will know their fate early doors because she is likely to take these five rivals along and as long as she enjoys a fairly comfortable lead up front, Mark Johnston can claim another Nursery success.

If you fancy taking the projected market leader on however, the 5/1 offer by Hills about Packington Lane looks plenty big enough from my viewpoint.

4.10 Goodwood:

Charlie Appleby appears to have found a fine opportunity for Leading Spirit in order to maintain his perfect (1/1) start in the Nursery sector this season.  Well in here by some ten pounds according to the official assessor, William Buick’s mount might only need to be steered in the right direction to score, though we have heard such comments once or twice before!

If you generally oppose 6/4 chances in such big fields, I guess there are worse each way options that Tin Hat and Swiss Cross at 16/1 & 20/1 respectively at the time of writing.

7.50 Musselburgh:

There was a time not so long ago that Brian Smart’s juveniles were feared at Musselburgh more than the sassenachs from far and near and certainly the 14/1 general quote about Tick Tock Croc catches the eye in a race which would otherwise create little interest from your truly.

That said, I’m not sure that Capitan James should be regarded as the rag in the field given that trainer can work miracles with his stock on occasions, whilst the relevant sire is Society Rock who has already claimed a two-year-old handicap winner this season.

 

Nursery stats this season (24 races – 186 runners – as of Friday morning – 3rd August):

Favourite stats (25):                     

13 winners – 3 placed – 9 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/4

Winning trainers:

3/13—Richard Fahey (3/1, 7/2 & 4/1**)

2/2—Archie Watson (11/2 & 5/1)

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2)

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*)

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/2—Nigel Tinkler (7/2)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/6—David Evans (11/4*)

1/7—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/14—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/19—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3—Mark Johnston (4/7, 7/4 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Tom Dascombe (4/1**)

William Haggas (15/8)

Charlie Hills (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Stats of first three in the betting:

72 relevant runners: 22 winners – 17 placed – 33 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

102 runners – 22 winners – 23 placed – 57 unplaced (54.8% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

84 runners – 2 winners – 9 placed – 73 unplaced (45.2% of total runners)

Weight2 – Aggreate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 15 winners – 16 placed – 58 unplaced (47.8% of runners)

8-13 or less: 9 winners – 16 placed – 72 unplaced (52.2% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

3 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-0

One at 8-13

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Seamus Durack

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Paul George

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Adrian Nicholls

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Bill Turner

0/2—Andrew Balding

0/2—Karl Burke

0/2—Tom Clover

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Roger Fell

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Brian Meehan

0/2—William Muir

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/3—Ed Dunlop

0/3—Charlie Hills

0/3—Hughie Morrison

0/3—Jamie Osborne

0/4—Ralph Beckett

0/4—Tim Easterby

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Richard Hughes

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Mick Channon

0/8—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Compton Place

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Dutch Art

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Slade Power

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

8 winners—February

7—April

6—March

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

2 wins – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins – Implicit (73 & 80)

1 win – Barend Boy (79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Capla Gilda (61)

1 win – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – More Than This (88)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Princess Power (63)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – Society Queen (76)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

1 win – (78) & 1 unplaced (85) – Revich

2 x Placed – Devils Roc (57 twice)

2 x Placed – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Greenback Boogie (78)

Placed – Gunforhire (64)

Placed – Hieronymus (78)

Placed – Kyroc (65)

Placed – Indian Viceroy (79)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – Que Amoro (79)

Placed – Requited (71)

Placed – Showu (71)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Wolf Hunter (64)

Placed – Xtara (78)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81) & Unplaced (79)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78) & Unplaced (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – Improvising (66) & Unplaced (67)

Placed – No Lippy (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – Two Blondes (73) & Unplaced (77)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Arishka (63)

Unplaced – Artair (83)

Unplaced – Artistic Rifles (75)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Barbegazi (57)

Unplaced – Barristan The Bold (82)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Bengali Spirit (73)

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capala (68)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Chonburi (71)

Unplaced – Clevedon (60)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Cupboard Love (88)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Deputise (85)

Unplaced – Dombra (80)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Even Keel (76)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Forseti (81)

Unplaced – Glorious Dave (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Knockabout Queen (71)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Li Kui (75)

Unplaced – Made In Lewisham (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – No More Regrets (84)

Unplaced – Not So Shy (68)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Phyllis (48)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Popping Corks (66)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Poy Luck (63)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Reddiac (71)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rock Party (63)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Shaybani (90)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – So Hi Sroem (66)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – St Ouen (69)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Swiss Peak (70)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Sybil Grans (60)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tinto (68)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Treasure Quest (74)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Water Diviner (82)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56 & 52)

2 x Unplaced – Be Proud (67) & (66)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Free Love (71 & 69)

2 x Unplaced – James Watt (86 & 88)

2 x Unplaced – Max Guevara (66) & (63)

2 x Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67) & (66)

2 x Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68 &72)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Staycation (75 & 74)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

3 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68, 70 & 71)

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 03

Mal Boyle Stats – Friday 3rd

Thursday’s school report:

Still hitting the woodwork too often –  though two winners emerged at 9/2 (returned at 4/1) & 4/1 (5/1) one of which which came via my Nursery work – most horses are still being well backed as were the two placed horses at 20/1 (14/1) & 14/1 (10/1) – the second of which was another product of my Nursery endeavours.

  • Glorious Goodwood stats for this week updated below

FRIDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30 (Unusual note to consider):

A few of the horses mentioned at Musselburgh and (arguably) Bangor are of considerable interest today….

GOODWOOD:

1.50: Mirage Dancer – 15/8 (Generally available)

2.25: Ostillo – 11/2 (Generally available)

3.00: Fire Brigade – 11/1 (Generally available)

3.35: Sioux Nation – 13/2 (Generally available)

4.40: Dan’s Dream – 14/1 (Marathon)

5.15: Epaulement – 11/1 (Betfair/PP)

NEWMARKET: 

5.50: Pilgrim Soul – 13/2 (Generally available)

7.00: Al Kout– 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.30: Lady Freyja – 14/1 (Generally available)

8.30: The Daley Express – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

MUSSELBURGH: 

5.40: Tynecastle Park – 14/1 (365/Hills/Betway/BetVictor)

6.10: Flint Hill – 4/1 (Generally available)

6.45: Two horses to consider: Our Charlie Brown – 6/1 (Ladbrokes/Mara/PP) & Inner Circle – 10/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.20: Royal Brave – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

7.50: Tick Tock Croc – 14/1 (Generally available)

8.20: Danzay – 9/2 (365/BetVictor)

8.50: Pea Shooter – 6/1 (365/BetVictor)

THIRSK:

3.20: Donny Belle – 5/2 (365/Skybet/BetVictor)

5.35: Raffle King – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

BANGOR:

2.35: Above Board – 6/1 (Generally available)

3.45: Salto Chisco – 9/2 (Skybet/Hills/888)

4.20: Oakmont – 7/2 (Generally available)

4.50: Handy Hollow – 8/1 (Skybet/Marathon)

WOLVERHAMPTON:

5.30: Capla Demon – 3/1 (PP)

6.35: Haadhir – 5/1 (Hills/Betfair)

7.10: Nutini – 18/1 (Paddy Power)

7.40: Penny Poet – 6/1 (365)

 

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STATS THIS WEEK:

21 races – 9 winning favourites – 18/21 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainers:

3/20–Mark Johnston (10/3*) – 10 runners today!

2/11–William Haggas (13/2* & 9/2*) – 5 runners today

2/21–Richard Hannon (7/1 & 6/1) – 5 runners

1/1–Neil King (11/4*) – No more runners this week

1/2–Richard Spencer (5/1) – 1 runner

1/2–George Baker (125/1) – None today – 1 runner on Saturday

1/2–David Elsworth (5/1**) – One runner today – that’s all  at Goodwood this week

1/2–Ron Harris (16/1) – No more runners at Goodwood this week!

1/2–William Knight (20/1) – None today 1 runner on Saturday

1/2–John Quinn (6/1) – None today – 1 on Saturday

1/3–Charlie Appleby (4/1) – 3 runenrs

1/4–Mick Channon (11/1) – 2 runners

1/4–John Gosden (4/5*) – No more runners this week!!!

1/5–Aidan O’Brien (5/2*) – 4 runners

1/6–Roger Varian (11/4) – 2 runners

1/9–David Simcock (9/1) – No more runners at Goodwood this week

1/10–Richard Fahey (4/1**) – 3 runners

Leading jockeys:

3/11–Silvestre De Siousa (7/2*, 10/3* & 11/4*) – None today

3/17–Ryan Moore (7/1, 6/1 & 5/2*) – 6 rides

2/9–Andrea Atzeni (11/1 & 4/5*) – 7 rides

2/13–P J McDonald (16/1) – 4 rides

1/1–Jason Hart (6/1) – No more rides at Goodwood this week

1/2–Tom Queally (9/1) – No more rides at Goodwood this week

1/2–Jimmy Quinn (20/1) – No more rides this week at Goodwood

1/4–Garald Mosse (5/1**)  – 2 rides

1/4–Pat Cosgrove (125/1) – No more booked rides at Goodwood this week

1/6–David Egan (11/4) – 3 rides

1/7–Jim Crowley (13/2*) – 5 rides

1/10–William Buick (4/1) – 5 rides

1/11–Paul Hanagan (4/1**) – 4 rides

1/12–James Doyle (9/2*) – 4 rides

1/12–Oisin Murphy (9/1) – 6 rides

Aug 02

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Thursday 2nd

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 2

 

Seven year corresponding stats at this meeting:

49 races – 19 winning favourites – 43/49 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers:

5 winners—Richard Hannon (11/1, 7/2, 10/3*, 15/8* & 2/5*) – 10 runners at Goodwood today

5 winners—Mark Johnston (18/1, 14/1, 9/1, 8/1, 8/1) – 6 runners on the card today

 

  • Five year corresponding stats for Epsom can be found below after the race by race Goodwood analysis and before the Nursery details/selections for a pair of two-year-old handicap events today

 

1.50: 14 of the last 17 winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst Mark Johnston (responsible for the 25/1 runner up In 2012 before saddling two of the last five winners at 14/1 & 8/1 winners) is looking for his seventh gold medallist in the contest during the last twenty one years.  Mark has declared Communique from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap, though Ventura Knight is no forlorn hope for the stable at around the 20/1 mark.  Another outsider that catches the eye is Global Giant, the only booked ride on the day at Goodwood for Gerald Mosse who scored aboard Sir Dancealot here on Tuesday (no mounts at the meeting yesterday).

Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last sixteen renewals of this opening event on day three of the meeting.  11 of the last 21 market leaders have snared Placepot positions.

Win selection: Communique

Each way options? Venture Knight & Global Giant

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals of the ‘Lillie Langtry’, with vintage representatives at 6/7 to extend the good run before form (and potential non-runners) is taken into consideration.  John Gosden stood by Frankie Dettori the second that Angels Hideaway passed the post before Frankie received his well-documented (eventually reduced) ban.  I find it interesting that Frankie has his first ride back aboard John’s raider Precious Ramotswe and even more so now that the money has started to increase on the positive exchanges for John’s four-year-old Nathanial filly.  Potential party-poopers include God Given and Maid To Remember.

Favourite factor: Six of the sixteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions (three winners) via the last fourteen renewals.

Win selection: Precious Ramotswe

 

3.00: ‘Team Hannon’ has secured six of the last nine renewals of this Group 2 Richmond Stakes and unsurprisingly, stable contender Neverland Rock has attracted plenty of overnight support, notwithstanding the booking of Frankie Dettori.  Land Force is rated as the main threat ahead of Konchek, though I still have plenty of respect for Clive Cox’s latter named Lethal Force fily.

Favourite factor: Seven winning favourites to report in ‘recent’ seasons (2015, 2014, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2006 & 1999), whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the last 16 years.

Each way Selection: Neverland Rock

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have won 13 of the last 19 renewals, whilst John Gosden has secured thee of the last six renewals.  John is not represented today which makes the odds about the 1000 Guineas raiders (winner and fourth respectively) Billesdon Brook and Wild Illusion interesting.  Add the Coronation Stakes bronze medallist Veracious into the mix and we have three junior raiders which possess definite claims, despite what the market might suggest.  That said, I find it difficult to choose between the trio – no bet.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won twelve of the last twenty one renewals of this Nassau Stakes (including nine of the last fifteen) whilst market leaders have secured seventeen Placepot positions during the study period.  The biggest priced winner during the period has been returned at 11/2 if we conveniently forget the 20/1 gold medallist five years ago.

 

4.10: It’s little wonder that Billesdon Brook won this two-year-old handicap twelve months ago before landing the 1000 Guineas in May in great style! The Hannon team have saddled four of the last nine winners, with No More Regrets offering some value at around the 20/1 mark this morning.  The fact that the relevant sire Kodiak has secured four two-year-old handicaps already this season adds confidence.  That said, Shaybani also represents the sire and having finished halfway down the pack in the Coventry Stakes, the Richard Hughes raider holds sway from my viewpoint.  Forseti deserves his place in the line up, whilst there was interesting money developing for Greenback Boogie when scribing this column.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last fourteen years. Eight of the last ten market leaders have secured Placepot positions which is a perfectly reasonable record as far as Nursery events are concerned.

Each way selection: Shaybani

 

4.45: Deira Surprise is the subject of plenty of support at the time of writing and I suspect that Hugo Palmer’s Slade Power raider will prove difficult to kick out of the frame.  I am a little surprised at the lack of attention paid to Incharge from the Charlie Hills yard, as this expensive purchase is a half-sister to Poet’s Word. There will be plenty more to come over a distance of ground I’ll wager but either way, it’s worth recording this event to keep an eye on Incharge (and some of the other juveniles) which could make their mark over the coming months.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last twenty one years.  14 of the 23 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.

Each way selection: Deira Surprise

Speculative win and place saver? Incharge

 

5.20: It will be interesting to see how Embour runs having tasted defeat following a hat trick of victories.  Either way, Kick On Kick On is expected to be too strong for the opposition on behalf of Clive Cox and those successful Rooney owners…..

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 10/3 favourite was the only winning market leader during the last decade.

Win selection: Kick On Kick On

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding stats for the meeting at Epsom this evening:

30 races – 31 winners via one dead heat – 9 winning favourites – 28/31 winners scored at a top price of 15/2

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Andrew Balding (28/1, 6/1, 9/2 & 5/6*) – 2 runners tonight: Private Cashier (7.30) & Macaque (8.00)

 

Nursery races today at Goodwood & Ffos Las:

4.10 Goodwood:

Easily the biggest field of the Nursery season so far whereby stakes should be kept low, albeit Shaybani stands out from the crowd for a few reasons.

Richard Hughes saddles just his third two-year-old handicapper this season (no winner to date) and his each way chance is there to see having followed up a half decent effort in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot before breaking his duck at Chepstow.

Kodiac has already been responsible for four Nursery winners in 2018 and Shane Kelly’s mount is no forlorn hope to add to the tally, despite being on offer in double figures this morning.  Forseti is considered the main danger, though there is some interesting money for Greenback Boogie at the time of writing.  No More regrets is also expect to out run her current 20/1 price tag.

 

5.30 Ffos Las:

Archie Watson won with his only previous Nursery runner this season with a 9/2 chance and with Capla Gilda likely to start at those odds (there or thereabouts), Archie could double his tally in the sector.

Finley Marsh continues to be good value for his five pound claim and Richard Hughes uses the ‘edge’ here with Improvising who could complete a big priced Nursery double for the yard today.

This pair will do for me against the other eleven contenders.

 

Nursery stats this season (22 races – 156 runners – as of Thursday morning – 2nd August):

Favourite stats (22):                     

12 winners – 2 placed – 18 unplaced

Odds on favourites:                          

2/4

Winning trainers:

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2)

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*)

2/12—Richard Fahey (3/1 & 7/2)

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/3—Clive Cox (5/4*)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/2—Nigel Tinkler (7/2)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/4—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/6—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/13—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/13—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3—Mark Johnston (4/7, 7/4 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Stats of first three in the betting:

66 relevant runners: 20 winners – 15 placed – 31 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

94 runners – 20 winners – 21 placed – 53 unplaced (60.2% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

62 runners – 2 winners – 6 placed – 54 unplaced (39.8% of total runners)

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

10-4 – 1-0-0

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-1

9-8 – 0-1-1

9-7 – 2–2-8

9-6 – 2-1-4

9-5 – 1-2-4

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-1-4

9-2 – 1-3-3

9-1 – 0-0-6

9-0 – 1-1-8

8-13 – 1-0-5

8-12 – 2-1-3

8-11 – 1-0-6

8-10 – 0-2-10

8-9 – 0-0-5

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 1-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-2-4

8-4 – 0-1-5

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-2

8-1 – 0-2-1

8-0 – 1-2-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

7-7 – 0-0-1

Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 13 winners – 14 placed – 44 unplaced (45.5% of runners)

8-13 or less: 9 winners – 13 placed – 63 unplaced (54.5% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

3 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Paul Cole

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Conor Dore

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Robert Eddery

0/1—Charlie Hills

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Brian Meehan

0/1—Hughie Morrison

0/1—Adrian Nicholls

0/1—Amanda Perrett

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Bill Turner

0/2—Karl Burke

0/2—Tom Clover

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—Roger Fell

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Richard Hughes

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/2—Adam West

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tim Easterby

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/7—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dark Angel

1—Dawn Approach

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Slade Power

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

8 winners—February

6—April

5—March

3—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

2 wins – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins – Implicit (73 & 80)

1 win – Barend Boy (79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Dark Shadow (74)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Devils Roc (57)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Gunforhire (64)

Placed – Kyroc (65)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – Que Amoro (79)

Placed – Requited (71)

Placed – Showu (71)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – Wolf Hunter (64)

Placed – Xtara (78)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81) & Unplaced (79)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78) & Unplaced (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – No Lippy (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Arishka (63)

Unplaced – Artair (83)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Bengali Spirit (73)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capala (68)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Clevedon (60)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Deputise (85)

Unplaced – Dombra (80)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Even Keel (76)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Glorious Dave (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Knockabout Queen (71)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Li Kui (75)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Not So Shy (68)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Phyllis (48)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rock Party (63)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – So Hi Sroem (66)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Swiss Peak (70)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tinto (68)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Traesure Quest (74)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56 & 52)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Free Love (71 & 69)

2 x Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68 &72)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Staycation (75 & 74)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

3 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68, 70 & 71)

 

 

 

Aug 02

Mal Boyle Stats – Thursday 2nd

Wednesday’s school report:

Still hitting the woodwork too often (another five placed horses yesterday – three of them second at 9/1, 9/1 & 9/4), though 3 WINNERS emerged at 10/1 (returned 12/1), 5/1 (11/4) & 9/2 (13/8) – most horses are still being well backed – stay patient as we’re not losing money since our glorious weekend, we’re just not adding to the fund – that’s all!

  • Glorious Goodwood stats for this week updated below

WEDNESDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

GOODWOOD:

2.25: Precious Ramotswe – 13/2 (Generally available)

3.00: Neverland Rock – 13/2 (365/Unibet)

3.35: Wild Illusion – 9/2 (Generally available)

4.10: Greenbank Boogie – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

4.45: Deira Surprise – 8/1 (Generally available)

5.20: Embour – 15/2 (Generally available)

EPSOM: 

5.45: Top Beak – 7/2 (Betfair/PP)

8.00: Chess Move – 14/1 (Generally available)

8.30: Deries Delight – 9/2 (365/Ladbrokes/Betway/BetVictor)

FFOS LAS: 

5.30: Capla Gilda – 4/1 (Generally available)

7.15: Sir Billy Wright – 20/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.15: Yorbelucky – 11/2 (Betfair/PP)

NOTTINGHAM:

2.45: Lahessar – 13/2 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Michele Strogoff – 11/2 (Marathon)

5.35: Dinsdale – 16/1 (Marathon/Betfair/PP)

STRATFORD:

3.10: Well Said – 6/1 (Marathon)

3.45: Fair Frank – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon)

4.20: Ballyandrew – 11/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STATS THIS WEEK:

14 races – 6 winning favourites – 11/14 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainers:

2/7–William Haggas (13/2* & 9/2*) – 4 runners today

2/11–Richard Hannon (7/1 & 6/1) – 10 runners

1/1–Neil King (11/4*) – No more runners this week

1/1–Richard Spencer (5/1) – 1 runner

1/2–George Baker (125/1) – 3 possible runners on Saturday

1/2–Mick Channon (11/1) – 2 runners

1/2–John Gosden (4/5*) – 2 runners

1/2–David Elsworth (5/1**) – One runner tomorrow (Friday) – that’s all  at Goodwood this week

1/2–Ron Harris (16/1) – No more runners at Goodwood this week!

1/2–William Knight (20/1) – 3 possible runners on Saturday

1/5–David Simcock (9/1) – 4 runners

1/14–Mark Johnston (10/3*) – 6 runners today!

Leading jockeys:

2/8–Silvestre De Siousa (10/3* & 11/4*) – 3 booked rides today

2/9–Andrea Atzeni (11/1 & 4/5*) – None today

2/11–Ryan Moore (7/1 & 6/1) – 6 rides

1/1–Tom Queally (9/1) 1 ride

1/1–Jimmy Quinn (20/1) – 2 rides

1/3–Garald Mosse (5/1**)  – 1 ride

1/4–Pat Cosgrove (125/1) – No more booked rides at Goodwood this week at the time of writing

1/7–Jim Crowley (13/2*) – No rides today

1/7–James Doyle (9/2*) – 5 rides

1/7–P J McDonald (16/1) – 6 rides

1/8–Oisin Murphy (9/1) – 5 rides

Aug 01

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Wednesday 1st

GOODWOOD – AUGUST 1

 

Seven year corresponding stats for this meeting:

49 races – 12 winning favourites – 36/49 have scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainer on the second day:

6 winners—Mark Johnston (14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1, 8/1 & 7/1) – 10 runners at Goodwood today: Dominating (1.50), Making Miracles, Baileys Excelerate & Lynwood Gold (2.25), Desert Lantern & Parliament House (4.10), Juneau (4.45) & Vale Of Kent, Poet’s Society & Masham Star (5.55)

 

  • Corresponding stats for this evening’s meeting at Sandown can be found below the race by race Goodwood analysis

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last nineteen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler seven years ago at 14/1.  Imphal and Piedita might prove to be the pick of the vintage representatives, though the race very much depends on how Lil Rockerfeller performs with no hurdles to bar her way.  Coeur De Lion should reach the frame again, though possibly without winning this competitive event.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 20 years, whilst 13 of the 27 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.  That said, the beaten 11/8 favourite four years ago was an expensive casualty for many investors.

Minimum stake win options: Impala & Piedita

 

2.25: Ten of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst Mark Johnston has saddled four of the last ten winners.  Mark has three chances this time around, with Baileys Excelerate and Lynwood Gold hailing from the right sector of the weights, despite their big prices compared to stable companion Making Miracles.  If the race eludes Mark and his team this time around, Drill could prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite fact: The 2015 market leader was the first successful favourite since the turn of the Millennium (the race reverted to type in each of the last two years), whilst just three of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions.  Five of the last fourteen winners have been returned in double figures.

Each way minimum stake options: Baileys Excelerate & Lynwood Gold

 

3.00: Aidan O’Brien has never saddled the winner of the ‘Molecomb’ and now might be a strange time to consider the maestro breaking his duck, with rumours abound that all is not well within the Ballydoyle camp just know.  That said, layers might have over reacted to the whispers in pricing up Fantasy at 20/1 from my viewpoint in a race which might not be quite up to speed this year.  Rumble Inthejungle’s sire won this in 2012 however, whereby Tom Queally’s mount could be the answer if Aidan finds himself scratching his head after the contest, whilst Soldier’s Call would be a well-deserved first Group success for Archie Watson, if my research is right suggesting that the talented trainer has yet to break that particular duck.  If not today, the ‘maiden tag’ will soon be broken.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Minimum stake each way selection: Fantasy

 

3.35: Eight of the last ten favourites have won this Group 1 Sussex Stakes, whilst three-year-olds have won 13 of the last 19 renewals. I should champing at the bit to find the winner of the big race having backed the 20/1 winner Here Comes When at twice those odds last year.  There are just too many ‘ifs, buts and maybes’ for my liking this time around, though if there is any value in the race, the French raider Orbaan could be the horse at 20/1 with Bet365/Betfair/Paddy Power this morning.  If the market leaders prevail between them all well and good, but there is precious little value to be had in the contest, unless Aidan has Gustav Klimpt up to speed whereby the 7/1 on offer would catch the eye.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 21 market leaders secured Placepot positions in the process.

Minimum stake each way selection: Orbaan

 

4.10: The victory of Dark Vision yesterday will be locked in the memory bank for a long time and trainer Mark Johnston has two chances of saddling another two-year-old winner at the meeting here, in a race which he won with a 12/1 chance twelve months ago.  The same (successful) connections are involved with newcomer Parliament House, whilst Desert Lantern has plenty going for her from what we have witnessed to date.  Last year’s winner Threading went on to win the ‘Lowther’ twelve months ago having made her debut in this event and don’t be surprised if Mark takes a similar route if either of his fillies previals this afternoon.  Welcoming is a potentially decent type, though I was expecting her to be aimed at a race with slightly less emphasis on speed as she had to be stoked up quite vigorously at the halfway stage at Chepstow on debut before the penny started to drop.  Perhaps with that experience under her belt she will improve sufficiently to take a hand in the finish.  Certainly if Clive Cox’s filly is there or thereabouts at the furlong marker, she might take some beating.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £325.22 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last twenty years.  16 of the 22 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Win selection: Desert Lantern

Each way saver? Parliament House

 

4.45: Three-year-olds usually get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage events, albeit that is not the way the first running of this race worked out. Junior raiders made up for the blip last year and at 12/1 in a place (Hills) this morning, Fabulous Red made some appeal off a feather weight of 8-1. Others to consider include the two horses at the top of the market at the time of writing, namely Four White Socks and Savannah who are listed in marginal order of preference.

Favourite factor: The two (9/4 & 2/1 favourites) have finished just out of the money in fourth place thus far.

Each way selection: Fabulous Red

 

5.55: Vale Of Kent and Poet’s Society are two of Mark Johnston’s three runners to consider, whilst Medahim and Gossiping are others locked into the equation from my viewpoint.  The race is a difficult call especially with the trade press suggesting that Aljady will start at 7/2.  Who knows, that might prove to be the case but win, lose or draw, the men in white coats should be queuing up to examine the mental health of those who believe Richard Fahey’s raider as having a 22% chance of winning the finale having been upped in trip.  Please make an orderly queue outside shops the length and breadth of the land in your quest to back Richard’s raider off the boards this morning.  The scenario probably makes sense given my comment!

Favourite factor: Just one winning favourite to report via six renewals during the last decade.  That said, the market leader scored at 5/1 whereby level stake favourite backers are even at this moment in time.

Minimum stake win selection: Vale Of Kent

Each way option: Poet’s Society

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Five year corresponding details for Sandown this evening:

30 races – 16 winning favourites – 29/30 winners scored at a top price of 8/1, with 26 of those gold medallists returned at 5/1 or less.

Leading trainer:

No trainer has saddled more than two winners during the course of the study period – 27 different trainers have secured victories via 30 races….

 

Nursery race this evening – 6.20 Sandown:

There was plenty of (realistic) money in the positive exchange queue for Knockabout Queen in the dead of night which suggests that the 8/1 quote by 365 might not last too long when the offices open later this morning.

The drop back to five furlongs is a tad worrying, though the tough gradient of the Sandown sprint course should work to her advantage.

We can ignore the 3/1 trade press quote of 3/1 about Dark Shadow as the Clive Cox raider will probably be returned at a point shorter (thereabouts) though the concern (to a fashion) is that Clive’s only previous Nursery runner this season was recorded as a beaten favourite.

Clive’s record with two-year-old handicappers last year was 3/16, stats which yielded two points of level stake profit which arguably negates the anxiety.

 

Nursery stats this season (21 races – 149 runners – as of Wednesday morning – 1st August):

Favourite stats (21):                     

11 winners – 2 placed – 18 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

2/4

Winning trainers:

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2)

2/4—James Tate (9/4* & 5/4*)

2/12—Richard Fahey (3/1 & 7/2)

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/2—Nigel Tinkler (7/2)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/4—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/6—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/13—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/13—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3—Mark Johnston (4/7, 7/4 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Stats of first three in the betting:

63 relevant runners: 19 winners – 14 placed – 30 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

90 runners – 19 winners – 20 placed – 51 unplaced (60.4% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

59 runners – 2 winners – 6 placed – 51 unplaced (39.6% of total runners)

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

10-4 – 1-0-0

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-1

9-8 – 0-1-1

9-7 – 2–2-7

9-6 – 1-1-4

9-5 – 1-2-4

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-3

9-2 – 1-3-3

9-1 – 0-0-5

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 1-0-5

8-12 – 2-1-3

8-11 – 1-0-6

8-10 – 0-2-10

8-9 – 0-0-5

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 1-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-2-4

8-4 – 0-1-5

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-2

8-1 – 0-2-1

8-0 – 1-2-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

7-7 – 0-0-1

Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 12 winners – 13 placed – 39 unplaced (43.0% of runners)

8-13 or less: 9 winners – 13 placed – 63 unplaced (57.0% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

3 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Charlie Hills

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Daniel Kubler

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Brian Meehan

0/1—Hughie Morrison

0/1—Adrian Nicholls

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Bill Turner

0/1—Adam West

0/2—Karl Burke

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—Roger Fell

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Ron Harris

0/2—Richard Hughes

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tim Easterby

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/7—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

4—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Slade Power

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

8 winners—February

6—April

5—March

2—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

2 wins – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

2 wins – Implicit (73 & 80)

1 win – Barend Boy (79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Devils Roc (57)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Gunforhire (64)

Placed – Kyroc (65)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – Que Amoro (79)

Placed – Requited (71)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – Wolf Hunter (64)

Placed – Xtara (78)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81) & Unplaced (79)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78) & Unplaced (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – No Lippy (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Arishka (63)

Unplaced – Artair (83)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Bengali Spirit (73)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Clevedon (60)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Deputise (85)

Unplaced – Dombra (80)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Even Keel (76)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unoplaced – Glorious Dave (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Not So Shy (68)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Phyllis (48)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rock Party (63)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – So Hi Sroem (66)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Swiss Peak (70)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Traesure Quest (74)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56 & 52)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68 &72)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Staycation (75 & 74)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

3 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68, 70 & 71)

Aug 01

Mal Boyle Stats – Wednesday 1st

Tuesday’s school report

I offered two of the seven winners at Glorious Goodwood yesterday at 7/1 (returned at 6/1) & 11/2 (5/1) which yielded a decent profit (seven and a half points) for level stake investors.

The results at the rest of the venues are probably best summed up by the minimum margin defeat of Elyisian Lady (2.15) who was advised at 20/1 before being returned at 14/1.  The other second placed horse on the day was offered at 10/1 before being backed down to 5/1.

Let’s hope for a little more luck in running today…

  • Check back around 8.00 when I will have listed the leading trainers/jockeys for ‘Glorious Goodwood’ this week – NOW DONE (With one specific pointer)

WEDNESDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

GOODWOOD:

2.25: Lynwood Gold – 20/1 (Hills)

3.00: Fantasy – 20/1 (Generally available)

3.35: Orbaan – 20/1 (365/Betfrair/PP)

4.10: Desert Lantern – 13/2 (Skybet.BetVictor)

4.45: Fabulous Red – 12/1 (Hills)

5.55: Vale Of Kent – 9/1 (Generally available)

SANDOWN: 

6.20: Knoackabout Queen – 8/1 (365)

8.05: Treasure Me – 6/1 (Generally available)

8.35: Elysees – 9/2 (Betfred/Tote/888)

REDCAR: 

2.45: Calendimaggio – 11/4 (365/BetVictor)

3.20: Kiwi Bay – 6/1 (Skybet)

3.55: Nuits St Georges – 7/1 (365/Sky/Marathon)

4.30: Poets Dawn – 9/4 (888)

5.00: Melaniemillie – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

5.30: Size Matters – 11/2 (Betfair)

6.00: Ravenhoe – 17/2 (365)

LEICESTER:

6.35: Golden Guide – 7/1 (Skybet)

7.45: Pont Vert – 10/1 (Generally)

PERTH:

2.35: U Name It – 10/1 (Generally available)

3.10: Our Lucas – 9/2 (Generally available)

3.45: Jovial Joey – 5/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.55: Two horses to consider – Make My Heart Fly – 11/2 (Betfair) & Lady London – 11/1 (365)

 

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD STATS THIS WEEK:

Leading trainers:

2/6–William Haggas (13/2* & 9/2*) – 1 runner at Goodwood today

1/1–John Gosden (4/5*) – 1 runner today

1/2–David Elsworth (5/1**) – Only one more potential runner this week (Friday)

1/2–Ron Harris (16/1) – No more runners at Goodwood this week!

1/4–Richard Hannon (6/1) – 7 runners today

1/5–Mark Johnston (10/3*) – 10 runners today!

Leading jockeys: 

1/3–James Doyle (9/2*) – 4 booked rides at Goodwood today

1/3–Garald Mosse (5/1**)  – 1 booked ride at Goodwood tomorrow – note: His only ride today (Global Style) is at Redcar (3.55)

1/3–Silvestre De Siousa (10/3*) – 6 rides today

1/4–Andrea Atzeni (4/5*) – 5 rides

1/4–Jim Crowley (13/2*) – 3 rides

1/4–P J McDonald (16/1) – 3 rides

1/5–Ryan Moore (6/1) – 6 rides

Jul 31

Daily analysis – Tuesday 31st

(GLORIOUS) GOODWOOD – JULY 31

Seven year corresponding stats for this meeting:

49 races – 12 winning favourites – 29/49 scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners—Mark Johnston (20/1, 14/1, 12/1, 8/1 & 7/1) – 5 runners: Rainbow Rebel (1.50), Dark Vision (2.25), Gainsborough Hat (4.10) & Kalagia & Rebel Assault (5.15)

 

  • Corresponding stats for Perth today can be found after the race by race analysis of the Goodwood card.

 

1.50: 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 11-5 during the extended study period.  Mark Johnston was not represented last year which was a real body blow as the leading trainer at this meeting in recent years has won this event four times in what is now the last nine years.  Mark’s progressive handicapper Rainbow Rebel has been offered the green light this time around and although Joe Fanning’s mount boasts obvious claims, his wide (14/15) draw makes life that much tougher.  That said, two of Mark’s recent runners were drawn even further out whereby it’s not ‘mission impossible’ by any means.  Others to consider include Alfarris, Silver Line and Appeared.

Favourite factor: The previous 17 favourites had all been beaten before one of the 8/1 joint market leaders obliged in 2015.  Similarly, one of the four 8/1 co favourites snared gold two years ago as well.  The race reverted to type twelve months ago however when the 9/2 jolly just managed to scramble into the first half of the finishers back in seventh place – 14 of the last 20 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest of the week:

1/2—Tuff Rock (good to soft) – 0/8 elsewhere

Each way selection: Rainbow Rebel

 

2.25:  ‘Team Hannon’ has won four of the last seven renewals of the Vintage Stakes, though Richard (junior) has yet to add to the tally and his raider Mordred looks to have a tough task this afternoon.  More likely winners include Confiding, Van Beethoven and Drogon.  Tom Dascombe’s last named raider is of particular interest given that the trainer was saying in the spring that his Zoffany colt had been held up in his work whilst adding that the sire’s stock often take a little time to reach race fitness/maturity whereby his results thus far have been impressive to say the least.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have prevailed, whilst 15 market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Each way selection: Drogon

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have secured five of the last eleven renewals of the Group 2 Lennox Stakes and this year’s lone representative Tip To Win will rightly receive plenty of support for the underrated Roger Teal team.  His silver medal effort in the 2000 Guineas was an outstanding achievement which was fully endorsed when finishing fourth as Royal Ascot last month.  It’s worth noting that none of the leading firms are offering 5/1 about the junior raider for fear of being bombed by each way (potentially bet to nothing) support for David Probert’s mount.  Dutch Connection has to be feared however, boasting his 3/4 record at Goodwood which is backed up by his silver medal in the race that got away.  Throw Here Comes When into the mix (won the Group 1 Sussex Stakes here last year) and we have reason to believe that this renewal is well up to scratch.  The trade press stress that Here Come When needs rain in order to go close but it’s also worth noting that his first two victories were gained on good and good to firm ground.  I concede that rain would aid his cause but Jim Crowley’s mount receives the value for money call from my viewpoint but then again, I’m still ‘dining out’ on his Sussex Stakes win at 20/1 last year, when some of us were on my selection at 33’s earlier that day.  Perhaps I’m being loyal and not thinking straight but at 16/1 across the board in a lower grade, Andrew Balding’s representative is taken to give us a decent run for our collective monies.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored via the last 19 renewals, whilst 14 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the four course winners in the Lennox Stakes:

1/3—Breton Rock (good) – won this race last year at 50/1

3/4—Dutch Connection (2 x good to firm & good) won this race 2 years ago

1/3—Here Comes When (soft)

1/6—So Beloved (soft)

Each Way selection: Here Comes When

 

3.35:  With a million pound potential bonus in the offing, John Gosden will be champing at the bit for Stradivarius to do the business and there is every reason to believe that the company potentially paying out the money will have upped the insurance level after the Gold Cup which was won in grand style.  Torcedor takes on the favourite again and with prize money here of well over a quarter of a million, Jessica Harrington’s day should be put down to expenses given the worse scenario.  St Michel and Dai Harraild also put unbeaten records on the line at the venue and I’m currently looking for prices for ‘best of the rest’ (without the two market leaders) as this pair might represent some value given such a betting opportunity.

Record of the four course winners in the Goodwood Cup:

1/1—Call To Mind (good)

1/1—Dai Harraild (good to firm)

1/1—St Michel (good)

1/1—Stradivarius (good) – won this race last year

 

4.10: Nine of the last fourteen runners saddled by Saeed Bin Suroor have won whereby the chance of Al Mureib is thoroughly respected.  The record of recent favourites (see stats below) is a tad worrying however and with 100/1 and 50/1 winners having been recorded during the last thirteen years, my money is safely locked away as far as this event is concerned.  Others who should figure prominently include debutants Gainsborough Hat and (particularly) Watan from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less (five winning favourites), though the 50/1 winner in 2004 was only cheered on by the layers in general terms before last year’s 100/1 gold medallist rocked that vast majority of investors. It’s worth noting however that a few loyal Gary Moore supporters backed Thechildren’strust on the tote twelve months ago though if they did, the 57/1 return would have made them feel a little disgruntled!  Seven of the last nine market leaders have missed out on Placepot positions, stats which do not include the 2016 renewal when the 5/6 market leader was withdrawn before a new market could be formed.

 

4.45: Boom The Groom won this event two years ago having finished fourth in the inaugural contest twelve months earlier.  The seven-year-old was well backed on the morning of the race twelve months ago before finishing out of the frame.  Trainer Tony Carroll has saddled three winners on the opening day of this meeting in recent years which have been sent off at 25/1, 22/1 & 13/2, and the general 11/1 quote could come under pressure this morning, given that Boom The Groom carries four pounds less than when successful in 2016.  Any ease in the ground would be a bonus for connections of Pettochside, though John Bridger and his team look to have been sending their prayers in the wrong direction.  Copper Knight completes my three ‘outsiders’ against the field from a decent draw which should ensure that Tim Easterby’s raider reaches the frame at around the 8/1 mark.

Favourite factor: The two (5/2 & 7/2) market leaders had found one too good for them from a win perspective, before last year’s 9/2 favourite leader finished just out of the frame.

Record of the four course winners in the sixth contest on the card:

1/2—El Astronaute (good) – won this race last year

1/5—Duke Of Firenze (good)

5/15—Pettochside (3 x soft & 2 x good to soft)

1/3—Boom The Groom (good) – won this event two years ago

Each way selection: Copper Knight

 

5.15: Move Swiftly and Labrega deserve their respective positions towards the top of the market but two horses make some appeal at much bigger prices in the ‘getting out stakes’, namely She Believes and (particularly) Escape The City.  She Believes is by far the more speculative call, hoping that Sylvester Kirk’s Arcano filly can rediscover some of her juvenile form.  Escape The City however boasts definite win and place claims given that she has already proved that she had ‘trained on’ when finishing third at 66/1 in Royal Ascot’s Sandringham Stakes on her penultimate start.  Betfair are out on a limb at 14/1 which simply looks too big from my take on the race.

Favourite factor: Both of the (10/3 & 7/2) favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

1/1—She Believes (good)

1/3—Zoraya (soft) – 1/10 elsewhere

Each way selection: Escape The City

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Corresponding Perth details for this evening (five year study period):

35 races – 10 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1

Leading trainers:

6 winners—Donald McCain (3/1, 9/4, 15/8. 7/4, 11/10* * 10/11*) – 1 runner tonight: Knock House (7.25)

5 winners—Lucinda Russell (12/1, 9/1, 5/1, 2/1* & 5/4*) – 5 runners: Make It Happen & Hey Listen (8.00), Vino’s Choice & Boys On Tour (8.30) & Island Heights (9.00)

 

Jul 31

Mal Boyle Stats – Tuesday 31st

Monday’s school report

Yesterday’s 25 runners were offered with a ‘government health warning’ and sure enough, just two winners emerged at 8/1 and 7/1, the latter horse having been backed down to 9/2.

That said, six others made the frame (I suggested small play each way stakes yesterday), including those at 16/1 (returned at 12/1), 11/1 (5/1) & 8/1 (3/1).  12 others were backed off the boards, including those at 20/1 into 9/1, 16/1 to 6/1,  16/1 into 9/1 and 12/1 to 13/2.

Indeed, I suggested the play should be to back the horses at the top of the prices, trying to obtain small ‘bet to nothing’ investments which would minimise any losses which for your truly, did not occur by practicing what I preached.

The Nursery advice yesterday produced a 33/1 Tricast via just the three horses mentioned in dispatches – not bad for a quiet day….

  • Check back around 7.30 when I will have listed the pick of the ‘away trainers’ at other tracks last year aside from Goodwood.  The report I offered for Royal Ascot earlier this year paid handsome dividends!  NOW ADDED (7.30 – As promised)

TUESDAY – Dead of Night MMA report at 6.30:

GOODWOOD:

1.50: Afaak – 13/2 (Betfred/Tote)

2.25: Drogon – 8/1 (Generally available)

3.00: Sir Dancealot – 11/2 (Generally available)

3.35: Torcedor – 4/1 (Hills/BetBright/365)

4.10: Watan – 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.45: Copper Knight – 8/1 (365/Betfair/PP)

5.15: Escape The City – 14/1 (Betfair)

BEVERLEY: 

2.40: Diamond Runner – 14/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Unibet/BetVictor)

4.20: Mont Kinabalu – 8/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.55: Beverley Bullet – 10/1 (Generally available)

YARMOUTH: 

2.15: Elysian Lady – 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

4.00: Erissimus Maximus – 5/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.30: Jazzy Lady – 9/1 (Betfair/PP)

PERTH:

8.00: Shackles – 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

9.00: Simply Mani – 10/1 (Hills/Betfair/PP)

WORCESTER: 

5.35: Silent Account – 6/1 (Generally available)

8.20: Ginger Fizz – 15/2 (BetBright)

 

The pick of the ‘away trainers’ this week based on last year’s results away from ‘Glorious Goodwood’:

(A similar service was offered for Royal Ascot week which offered great rewards…)

FLAT:

119 races – 120 winners (via one dead heat) – 49 winning favourites – 104/120 winners scored at a top price of 9/1

Leading trainers: 

8 winners–Kevin Ryan (12/1, 7/1, 5/1, 11/4**, 9/4, 13/8*, 13/8* & 11/10*)

5 winners–Michael Dods (4/1, 9/4*, 5/4*, 5/4* & 10/11*)

NH: 

35 races – 18 winning favourites – 29/35 winners scored at a top price of 8/1

Leading trainer:

5 winners–Dan Skelton (3/1*, 6/4*, 6/4*, 10/11* & 8/11*)

Jul 30

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Monday 30th

WINDSOR – JULY 30

Five year corresponding stats at this meeting:

31 races – 13 winning favourites – 29 winners scored at a top price of 12/1, with 24 being sent off at a maximum of 9/2

Leading trainer:

4 winners—Richard Hannon (12/1, 5/1, 11/8* & 3/10*) – 2 runners tonight: Good Luck Fox (6.05) & Ginger Fox (6.40)

 

  • Corresponding stats for the Ayr meeting this afternoon are available below Windsor’s race by race analysis, alongside the updated Nursery ratios and comment for the relevant two-year-old handicap at Wolverhampton at 5.10 this afternoon.

5.35: All five winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3, as have nine of the twelve horses to have claimed the available Placepot positions thus far.  Four-year-olds have claimed three of the five renewals and putting the stats and facts together points towards ANCIENT LONGING running a big race in this grade/company, especially with underrated pilot Pat Cosgrave having ridden five of his last thirteen mounts to winning effect.  Others for the mix include Tripartite and Carry Me Home who could outrun his 20/1 price tag with a little luck in running.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have obliged via four renewals to date, though search parties are still out looking for other three unplaced market leaders.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/2—Tobacco Road (soft)

Win selection: Ancient Longing

 

6.05: Richard Hannon’s declarations make for interesting reading today, having sent one hot-pot all the way up to Ayr, leaving just the two entries to consider at Windsor tonight, the first of them being his raider Good Luck Fox who threw away any chance he had by hanging badly at Sandown last time out when recorded as the beaten favourite.  Across the Sea represents the main threat on this occasion, presuming that Good Luck Fox steers a straight path to give himself a chance of atoning for losses the last day.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/11 favourite was turned over in a four runner ‘win only’ contest before a 3/10 market leader made amends twelve months on.  The next pair of 2/1 joint favourites snared the two available Placepot positions when finishing well clear of their rivals in a short field event, before last year’s 11/10 market leader bombed out.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

 

6.40: Clive Cox’s Oasis Dream newcomer Crackin Dream was (disappointingly) drifting in the market at the time of writing though a reversal of that move later this morning would make this race so much more interesting should that scenario evolve.  Without that support, Kessaar would probably oblige, unless Richard Hannon’s other runner on the card Ginger Fox is anything out of the ordinary.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/5 favourite duly obliged twelve months ago.

 

7.15: Chris Wall has saddled his fair share of winners during ‘Goodwood week’ down the years and Han Solo Berger is expected to figure prominently at the business end of proceedings.  Others added into the equation in this event confined to lady riders include Human Nature, Kodiline and Glory Of Paris who represents Rod Millman who has won with two of this last three runners.

Favourite factor: Last year’s 3/1 joint favourites both missed out on Placepot positions in another short field event on the card twelve months ago.

Record of the three course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Kodiline (good to firm)

1/3—Human Nature (good to firm)

1/7—Bahamian Dollar (good to firm)

 

7.50: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last sixteen renewals which makes for something of a change in this type of event (three-year-olds usually have the edge) and the trend might be extended by CASEMENT who has come in for some overnight support which might gain the day over two horses which are fully respected, namely History Writer and Quality Seeker.  Indeed, though two entries force me to use the each way option relating to the selection who immediately caught the eye with the 8/1 quote in the dead of night.

Favourite factor:  Five favourites have won during the last nineteen years which is not a bad return in this type of event, though just four of the other sixteen market leaders additionally claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the field:

1/2—Oh Its Saucepot (good to soft)

2/14—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/1—Quality Seeker (good to firm)

Each way selection: Casement

 

8.20: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-3 have secured nine of the twelve available Placepot positions to date, statistics which include all five (9/2-3/1-3/1-9/4*-9/4**) winners. The weight stats eliminate three of the ‘dead eight’ runners, with Choral Music (withdrawn from a race at Newmarket at the weekend) and Sounds Approving potentially standing out from the crowd.  Makambe is too short for my liking, though Barnay could outrun his price for the Marcus Tregoning team which usually comes good at this time of year.

Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions with two market leaders winning their respective events at odds of 9/4.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Six year stats for this afternoon’s meeting at Ayr:

45 races – 17 winning favourites – 37/45 winners scored at a top price of 9/1.

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Jim Goldie (14/1, 17/2, 17/2, 7/1, 11/4* & 9/4*) – 9 runners this afternoon – good luck with sorting the wheat from the chaff!

It’s worth remembering that Jim saddled plenty of big priced winners north of the border.

When going on holiday two weeks ago, I left a positive ‘Goldie message’ for a race in which Jim was three handed at this venue on the Monday – Jim saddled the 33/1 winner which paid nearly 50/1 on the tote!

As an additional thought, I should point out that both Keith Dalgleish and Richard Fahey have saddled five winners at the is meeting during the study period.

 

Today’s Nursery race – 5.10 Wolverhampton:

Implicit broke her maiden tag in Nursery company the last day and should take the beating here, though it’s worth noting that there have been bits and pieces of early money for both Requited and Wolf Hunter early doors this morning.

 

Nursery stats this season (20 races – 140 runners – as of Monday morning – 30th July):

Favourite stats (20):                     

10 winners – 2 placed – 18 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

2/4

Winning trainers:

2/3—Rod Millman (14/1 & 9/2)

2/12—Richard Fahey (3/1 & 7/2)

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/2—Nigel Tinkler (7/2)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/3—James Tate (9/4*)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/6—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/12—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/13—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

3—Mark Johnston (4/7, 7/4 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

William Haggas (15/8)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Jonathan Portman (15/8)

Stats of first three in the betting:

60 relevant runners: 18 winners – 13 placed – 29 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

86 runners – 18 winners – 18 placed – 50 unplaced (61.4% of runners)

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

54 runners – 2 winners – 6 placed – 46 unplaced (38.6% of total runners)

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-1

9-8 – 0-1-1

9-7 – 2–2-7

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 1-2-4

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-3

9-2 – 1-2-3

9-1 – 0-0-3

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-5

8-12 – 2-1-2

8-11 – 1-0-6

8-10 – 0-2-10

8-9 – 0-0-5

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 1-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-2-4

8-4 – 0-1-4

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-2

8-1 – 0-2-1

8-0 – 1-2-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 11 winners – 12 placed – 36 unplaced (42.1% of runners)

8-13 or less: 9 winners – 12 placed – 60 unplaced (57.9% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

3 at 9-7

2 at 9-2

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-9

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Susan Corbett

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Charlie Hills

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Brian Meehan

0/1—Adrian Nicholls

0/1—Jonathan Portman

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Adam West

0/2—Karl Burke

0/2—Michael Dods

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—Roger Fell

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Tim Easterby

0/4—William Haggas

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/6—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

2—Sir Prancealot

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Slade Power

1—Society Rock

1—Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

7 winners—February

6—April

5—March

2—January

None to date–May

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

2 wins – Greeley (won off official ratings of 60 & 66)

1 win – Barend Boy (79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Devils Roc (57)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Gunforhire (64)

Placed – Kyroc (65)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – Que Amoro (79)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – Xtara (78)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Big Ace (81) & Unplaced (79)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78) & Unplaced (78)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Placed – No Lippy (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Artair (83)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Bengali Spirit (73)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Deputise (85)

Unplaced – Dombra (80)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Even Keel (76)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unoplaced – Glorious Dave (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – So Hi Sroem (66)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Swiss Peak (70)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Traesure Quest (74)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68 &72)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Staycation (75 & 74)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)

3 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68, 70 & 71)

Jul 30

Mal Boyle Stats – Monday 30th

Sunday’s school report – See my Twitter page for all the details on a fine Sunday, highlighted by my 22/1 WINNER First Quest!  Four other decent priced winners helped the weekend through an almost golden period which would been tremendous had just a few of the second placed horses gone one better!

  • Today’s work comes with a government health warning because although plenty of horses have been included in the mix, they are there in the expectation of retracting in price, though whether they will be good enough to win remains to be seen on a moderate day of sport.  If you enjoyed some of our success at the weekend and want to become involved (small each way plays recommended) that’s fine but if you’re needed this week’s Goodwood meeting to be ‘financed’ by today’s fayre, you might need plenty of luck in running . My play today will be to bet at the top price and lay off a.s.a.p. hoping to have ‘small bets for nothing’ in running – though that’s easier said than done and is only considered because of the weekend we enjoyed…..

MONDAY:

AYR:

2.30: My Girl Maisie – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

3.00: Buonarroti – 10/1 (365/Betfair/PP/Boyle/BetVictor)

3.30: Royal Sheehan – 8/1 (Generally available)

4.00: Carnagio – 12/1 (365)

4.30: Saryshagann – 12/1 (365)

5.00: Gonindaethat – 25/1 (Betfair/PP)

WINDSOR: 

5.35: Carry Me Home – 20/1 (PP)

7.15: Human Nature – 13/2 (PP)

7.50: Casement – 8/1 (PP/Betfair/BetBright)

8.20: Barnay – 8/1 (365/Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

NEWTON ABBOT: 

2.10: Psychocandy – 11/2 (Skybet/888)

2.40: Nabhan – 11/1 (365/BetVictor)

3.10: Tickinthebox – 7/1 (Betfair/PP)

4.10: Diplomatico – 8/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/Betfair)

LINGFIELD:

1.20: Accommodate – 5/1 (Hills)

1.50: Monks Stand – 9/1 (Coral/BetVictor)

2.20: Mullarkey – 17/2 (365)

2.50: Gateway – 5/1 (365)

3.20: Jawshan – 16/1 (365)

4.20: Faraway Fields – 12/1 (365)

4.50: Celerity – 25/1 (Skybet/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 

6.15: Nabras Again – 16/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

7.25: Nezar – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

8.30: Oskeman – 7/1 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

9.00: Ganton Par – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

The average price on offer is 19/2 (thereabouts) which tells you all you need to know!

 

Jul 29

Daily analysis – Sunday 29th

PONTEFRACT – JULY 29

Six year corresponding results at this meeting:

42 races – 9 winning favourites – 36/42 winners scored at a top price of 11/1

Leading trainer during the study period:

5 winners—Richard Fahey (8/1, 5/1, 7/2, 3/1 & 13/8*) – 9 runners on the card – good luck with your permutations but please, read the opening lines of the 2.00 event before wading in too deeply!

 

2.00: This is what I wrote last year which is still worth taking into account twelve months on, from my viewpoint anyway. “Someone was suggesting to me yesterday afternoon that I should always include Richard Fahey’s horses on a Saturday which is fair comment when looking at his winners, yesterday being a prime example with 50/1, 14/1, 7/2 & 10/3 chances scoring on behalf of the yard.  Even on a very good day however, to cover the 14,915/1 accumulator, the number of four-folds to accommodate yesterday’s 29 runners from the yard was 23,751.  Imagine backing winners at yesterday’s prices and losing £883.60 to 10p stakes, especially when the total stake (even to 10p) would have been £2,375.10!  Those figures are based on 29 different races yesterday which was not (exactly) the case, with Richard typically saddling more than one runner in certain events.  That would have affected the staking pattern – but you hopefully take my point.  There is no short cut to making money in this business I’m afraid but the advice is to look at what you intend to win today, rather than what you might (would) have won/lost yesterday!” Back to today – a similar scenario unfolded yesterday as Richard’s 27 runners produced a 1,702/1 five timer – though it would have asked you to invest 80,730 five timers to ‘gain that loss’, give or take a few hundred stakes via inmates that clashed in certain events!  The relevant other point to add is that the trade press suggestion that Pontefract will be “partly cloudy” today though not from what my radar shows me at 5.00 this morning, as three umbrella’s might not be enough to ward off all the rain!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that Richard Fahey’s York runner up FLAWLESS JEWAL should beat MURQAAB for openers, the other pair looking to be out of their depth, whatever the weather holds in store for racegoers this afternoon.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/10 favourite could only finish fourth of seven behind horses which filled ‘short field’ frame at 4/1 & 5/2.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first to horses home reward each way investors.

 

2.30: Ten different trainers have saddled the winners during the last decade which does not help a great deal, whilst three-year-olds have the best record with four victories during the last seven years. PENTLAND HILLS and SEMPRE PRESTO are the junior raiders on this occasion, whilst Corregio’s chance would improve if some the rain got into the ground this afternoon, a factor which would go against Pentland Hills in all probability.  Out of interest, Corregio finished second in the following race on last year’s card – on soft ground.

Favourite factor: Nine renewals had slipped by since the last favourite obliged before last year’s market leader prevailed at 6/4.  Five successive winners during the period were returned in double figures, ranging between 12/1 & 28/1.

Record of the two course winners in the second race:

1/1—Sempre Presto (good to firm)

3/13—Corregio (2 x good & good to firm)

 

3.00: If ‘my weather forecast’ proves more accurate than that of the trade paper today, PIONEERING would definitely come into the equation if even good to soft ground was in the offing by the time the third race was contested.  Otherwise, I would be more inclined towards the chances of NEVERBEEN TO PARIS and RODDY.

Favourite factor: Only two (4/1 & 5/2) favourites have won during the last eleven years, with three of the last seven gold medallists having been sent off at 28/1, 20/1 & 11/1.

Record of the two course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Pioneering (soft)

1/3—Almunther (good to firm)

Each way selection: Pioneering (Neverbeen To Paris on good/firmer ground)

 

3.30: Last year’s soft ground winner ANOTHER TOUCH is available at 15/2 in a place this morning which would offer some value if any rain gets into the ground.  Failing that, BIG COUNTRY would be the call with the other potential winner Gabr looking too short at around the 6/5 mark.  Knowing your percentages is an important piece of armoury in this business.  6/5 represents a probability factor of 45.5% whereby you can make your mind up with the quote.  If you believe Gabr has a 46% chance of winning or higher you can back the Charlie Hills raider with a degree of confidence and if not, keep your money in your pocket or look for a horse which offers more venue. I offered ‘At The Races’ (I had been in front of the camera a few times in those days) an opportunity to televise a short programme to ‘educate’ viewers on now bookmakers price up events but they chose to ignore the idea, leaving punters in the dark.  Like most other people in prominence, they want to keep punters unaware, or treat them as ‘mugs’ or muggles, as J.K. would call them!

Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, ten of the last eleven winners have scored at a top priced of 11/2, whilst the other 10/1 ‘outsider’ would not have been a total success on the books for many bookmakers.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:

1/1—Another Touch (soft)

Each way option: Another Touch (increase stakes if rain penetrates the surface)

 

4.05: Six of the last seven winners have carried 9-4 or more, whilst six-year-olds have held the vintage call by snaring four of the last nine renewals.  BUCANEERS VAULT possesses ticks in both boxes, whilst last year’s beaten favourite (runner up) GIN IN THE INN appeals from a value for money perspective at nearly twice the price as last year’s odds.  If the ground remains good or better, Paul Hanagan’s mount would be the call given that his second placed effort last year was gained on unfavourable soft going.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, the average winning price during the period standing at 15/2.  That said, seven of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the four course winner in the fifth race:

2/6—Gin In The Inn (good & good to firm)

2/7—Sheepscar Lad (good & good to soft)

3/8—Highly Sprung (3 x good to firm)

2/15—Mr Orange (good & good to firm)

Tentative win selection: Bucaneers Vault

Each way option: Gin In The Inn

 

4.35:  The 6/1 ‘advice’ about EXTRA LARGE that I offered to MMA readers this morning (Market Move Activity) this morning has dried up (to a fashion) as anticipated though there are still bits and pieces of 11/2 if you shop around which in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest, could prove the to be the value for money call.  4/5 is still the quote by two bookmakers about Rock Force (Betfair & PP) at the time of writing which win, lose or draw, makes little sense to yours truly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Pontefract card.

Each way selection: Extra Large

 

5.10: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four contests which brings in the likes of GEOFF POTTS and TEWENTYSVNTHLANCERS into the mix alongside ORIENTAL SPLENDOUR from my reading of the contest.  Ruth Carr’s latter named raider finished third in this event last year under unfavourable conditions and if I have been proved wrong relating to the amount of rain (if any evolved) during the afternoon, James Sullivan’s mount would be the win and place call.  Adding interest to proceedings in the finale is the thought that there will be worse outsiders contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon than One Boy.

Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, whilst both of the 9/2 joint favourites twelve months ago finished out with the washing.

Record of the two course winners in the finale:

2/8—Oriental Splendour (good & good to firm – 0/31 at other venues)

1/5—Knockamany Bends (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Jul 29

Mal Boyle Stats – Sunday 29th

Saturday’s school report – See my Twitter page for all the details on a fine Saturday – 7 WINNERS ranging between 14/1 & 7/2 (average price of 15/2) which could have proved really golden but for five big priced runner ups, notwithstanding  a 25/1 third placed horse!

SUNDAY:

PONTEFRACT:

3.00: Almunther – 15/2 (PP)

3.35: Big Country – 7/2 (365/Ladbrokes/Hills/BetVictor)

4.05: Gin In The Inn – 7/1 (Generally available)

4.35: Extra Large – 6/1 (365)

5.10: One Boy – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

UTTOXETER: 

2.10: First Quest – 22/1 (Marathon) – 14/1 with Skybet – as short as 7/1 elsewhere

2.40: Ormesha – 13/2 (365)

3.45: Tempestatrfloresco – 8/1 (365/Coral)

5.20: Aunty Ann – 8/1 – 365/Betway/BetVictor)

WOLVERHAMPTON: 

1.20: Evanescent – 25/1 (Marathon)

1.50: Duggary – 8/1 (365/Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

2.20: Zmhar – 3/1 (Hills/Unibet/BetVictor)

2.50: Documenting – 3/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.55: Dr Richard Kimble – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Hills/Betway/BetVictor)

Best of luck today guys…

 

Jul 28

Daily analysis – Saturday 28th

Feeling awful this morning I’m afraid – selections only. 

Changing ground conditions at most of the venues today demand that you bet sensibly…

ASCOT:

1.50: 

Scintillating

2.25: 

Crack on Crack On

3.00: 

Two each way options: Chessman & Cardsharp

3.40: 

Hydrangea (each way)

4.15: 

Master Brewer

4.50: 

Normandy Barriere

5.20:

What A Welcome

Jul 28

Mal Boyle Stats – Saturday 28th

Friday’s school report:

4 winners at 11/1 (returned at 7/1), 4/1 (9/4), 7/2 (9/4) & 2/1 (11/8)…..

Feeling awful this morning I’m afraid guys – Check markets/stake accordingly….

Bookmakers just love changing ground conditions – bet/stake accordingly today – I don’t want to hear of readers ‘doing their proverbials’….

 

DEAD OF NIGHT Morning Market Assessment (at 6.30 am)

ASCOT:

1.50: Scintillating – 4/1 (Generally available)

2.25: Escalator – 14/1 (Betfair/PP)

3.00: Sabador – 20/1 (Generally available)

3.40: Coronet – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Sportingbet)

4.15: Master Brewer – 11/4 (Generally available)

4.50: My Amigo – 14/1 (Berfair/PP)

5.20: Koeman – 14/1 (365/Betway)

CHESTER:

4.55: Amazing Michele – 11/3 (365/Ladbrokes/BetVictor)

5.25: Omotesando – 9/1 (Generally available)

NEWMARKET:

2.20: Hasanoanda – 7/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

3.15: Tirania – 11/2 (Skybet.Betfair/BetVictor)

4.00: Staxton – 9/1 (888)

5.10: Rickyroadboy – 9/1 (Ladbrokes/Coral/Boyle/888)

SALISBURY:

5.45: Walkman – 12/1 (365)

6.15: Princely – 9/1 (Generally available)

6.45: Spot Lite – 12/1 (Betfair/PP)

7.15: Corazon Espinado – 8/1 (PP/Coral)

8.15: Scrafton – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

YORK:

2.40: Golden Apollo – 17/2 (Betfair/PP)

3.15: Fabricate – 10/1 Ladbrokes/Betway)

4.25: Arab Moon (Generally available)

5.00: Ladies First – 16/1 (Betfair/PP)

5.35: Que Amoro – 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

LINGFIELD:

7.30: Apple Anni – 9/1 (PP)

8.30: Deciding Vote – 11/1 (Skybet/Marathon)

NEWCASTLE:

2.10: Donachies Girl – 10/1 (Ladbrokes/Betfair/PP)

2,45: Rashdan – 13/2 (365/BetVictor)

3.20: Poet’s Society – 14/1 (Ladbrokes/Marathon/Betfair/PP)

3.55: Lucky Lucky Man – 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

5.05: Ingleby Angel – 25/1 (Ladbrokes)

Jul 27

Daily analysis & Nursery service – Friday 27th

ASCOT – JULY 27

Six year stats for this corresponding meeting:

39 races – 14 winning favorites – All 39 winners scored at a top price of 14/1

Leading trainer:

6 winners—Mark Johnston (12/1, 13/2, 5/1, 5/2*, 5/2* & 6/1) – 1 runner: Austrian School (4.10)

 

  • See Nursery details for today’s two relevant race below the race by race Ascot analysis

 

1.50: Despite the odd blip here and there, Charlie Appleby remains the trainer to keep onside, as has been the case almost since day one for the Godolphin handler.  Ceratonia looks the part on paper with so many winners in the bloodline from Green Desert right through to Oasis Dream whilst ‘mum’ Rumh has sired two very good types already in Wild Illusion (for Charlie) and Really Special (Saeed Bin Suroor).  Tom Dascombe thinks a lot of Flighty Almighty but as the trainer was stressing back in the spring, she was going to need a mile sooner rather than later, she might be best watched today.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 market leader finished out of the frame behind horses which were returned at 4/1, 20/1 and 7/2 when secring Placepot positions.

Win Selection: Ceratonia

 

2.25: Richard Hannon has saddled three of the last five winners of this contest whereby the chance of Production is fully respected.  Sir Michael Stoute supporters will be lumping on Almania I’ll wager though at the odds available, Lethal Guest is the win and place call with Mick Channon suggesting back in the dark days of late winter that he was “a smasher”, and Mick knows all about producing debutant winners here at Ascot albeit as memory serves, the majority of them have been fillies.

Favourite factor: Although last year’s successful (11/8) market leader was the first favourite to score in 16 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1 during the period, whereby bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.

Each way selection: Lethal Guest

 

3.00: Three-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals of this Class 3 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig two years ago, with only Archie Watson live to the ‘edge’ this time around!  That said, Archie’s raider Yabass is the ‘roughie’ in the line up at 12/1, though I doubt those odds will be greatly extended by layers over the next few hours.  Similarly, if you can get 9/1 about Eye Of The Storm, I think you will be beating the book, with both runners holding each way chances from my viewpoint, even though this is a ‘short field’ contest.  New readers light like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home reward each way investors.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 15 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include eight successful favourites.

Each way options: Yabass & Eye Of The Storm

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have now secured 12 of the last 16 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last seven contests. Junior raiders are 5/4 to extend their good record before the form book is consulted this time around and Beshayyir and De Fide are fancied to lift the prize between them on this occasion.  William Haggas (Beshayyir) saddled the winner last year, whilst De Fide represents decent value for money from my viewpoint at 15/2 with Bet365 early doors this morning.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 16 years, whilst 12 of the 16 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Record of the two course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Flying North (good)

1/1—Beshayyir (good to firm)

Win selection: Beshayyir

Each way alternative option: De Fide

 

4.10: Mark Johnston saddles just the one runner on the card today, with Austrian School representing the yard which has snared no less than 11 winners over the course of the two day meeting during the last six years!  Silverstre De Sousa’s mount is the call accordingly, with First Nation offered up as the main threat.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.

Record of the two course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/3—Great Hall (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Atty Presse (good to firm)

Win selection: Austrian School

 

4.45:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 four years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 two years ago.  Unbelievably, just one relevant horse was declared last year, with the relevant beast rewarding each way investors at 15/2 by finishing third.  Six vintage raiders have been offered the green light (trainers have smelt the coffee at last), with Show Stealer and Vibrant Chords arguably proving to be the pick of the bunch.  Aside from the five-year-olds, I respect the chance of Encore D’Or and Koditime.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed seven years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last five winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1-5/1.  15 of the last 19 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Each way selection: Vibrant Chords

 

5.15: Lady Dancealot looked too big at 11/1 from my viewpoint overnight, especially as she has finished ‘in the three’ in 6/9 races to date.  She struggles to completely last out this six furlong trip if I’m being honest though that said, her each way chance is still there to be seen. If you’re playing the exchanges during the course of the race, I would be amazed if David Elsworth’s raider did not trade as short at 6/1 at some stage of proceedings whereby potential investors should not lose out, especially with ‘Silvestre’ aboard.  Island Of Life and Procedure boast obvious claims at the other end of the market but offer no value according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: The two 5/2 favourites to date have managed just one bronze medal between them.

Win and place call: Lady Dancealot

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an ‘exact science’, whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not ‘placed’ regarding my statistics.

 

Nursery races today:

3.45 Thirsk:

Not the easiest of races to assess, especially as No Lippy is thoroughly exposed by now, not that she has an impossible task by any means.  I am (tentatively) swayed by the fact that there was money for Prince Elzaam overnight, especially as he is still down to contest a Novice Median Auction race at York on Saturday afternoon.

6.40 Newmarket:

One of the most competitive Nursery events of the season thus far (potentially the second biggest field) in which Delft Dancer gets the marginal each way call, having already been placed in a two-year-old handicap from the same (78) mark.  Others of interest include Dombra and Even Keel.  As an added pointer, you might like to look at the aggregate weight carrying stats in Nursery races which are listed below.

 

Nursery stats this season (17 races – 118 runners – as of Friday morning – 27th July):

Favourite stats (17):                     

10 winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Odds on favourites:

2/4

Winning trainers:

1/1—Charlie Appleby (4/6*)

1/1—William Jarvis (6/1)

1/1—Hugo Palmer (11/4)

1/1—George Peckham (6/5*)

1/1—Saeed Bin Suroor (13/8*)

1/1—Archie Watson (11/2)

1/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (12/1)

1/2—Rod Millman (14/1)

1/2—Stuart Williams (7/4*)

1/3—Kevin Ryan (6/4*)

1/3—Richard Spencer (7/2)

1/3—James Tate (9/4*)

1/4—Michael Bell (11/4*)

1/4—David Evans (11/4*)

1/10—Richard Fahey (3/1)

1/10—Mark Johnston (8/13*)

1/11—Richard Hannon (7/4*)

Trainers of beaten favourites:

2—Mark Johnston (4/7 & 7/2)

Ralph Beckett (6/4)

Mick Channon (5/2)

Clive Cox (4/1)

Eve Johnson Houghton (8/11)

Jamie Osborne (5/2)

Stats of first three in the betting:

51 relevant runners: 15 winners – 12 placed – 24 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in single figures (9/1 or less):

73 runners – 15 winners – 17 placed – 41 unplaced

Stats of horses starting in double figures (10/1 or more):

45 runners – 2 winners – 3 placed – 40 unplaced

Weight Stats (winners – placed – unplaced):

9-13 – 0-1-0

9-11 – 0-0-1

9-10 – 1-1-1

9-9 – 2-0-0

9-8 – 0-1-1

9-7 – 2–2-6

9-6 – 1-1-3

9-5 – 1-1-2

9-4 – 0-1-3

9-3 – 2-0-2

9-2 – 1-2-2

9-1 – 0-0-1

9-0 – 1-1-6

8-13 – 0-0-4

8-12 – 1-0-1

8-11 – 1-0-4

8-10 – 0-2-9

8-9 – 0-0-4

8-8 – 2-1-1

8-7 – 0-0-2

8-6 – 0-0-6

8-5 – 0-1-4

8-4 – 0-1-4

8-3 – 1-1-5

8-2 – 0-0-1

8-1 – 0-1-1

8-0 – 0-2-4

7-13 – 0-0-1

7-10 – 0-0-1

7-9 – 1-0-0

7-8 – 0-0-1

Aggregate stats:

Horses carrying 9-0+ – 11 winners – 11 placed – 28 unplaced (42.2% of runners)

8-13 or less: 6 winners – 9 placed – 81 unplaced (57.6% of total numbers)

 

Weights carried by beaten favourites:

2 at 9-7

One at 9-11

One at 9-10

One at 9-6

One at 9-5

One at 9-2

 

OTHER TRAINER RECORDS THIS SEASON (YET TO SADDLE A WINNER):

0/1—Alan Berry

0/1—Marco Botti

0/1—Karl Burke

0/1—Tom Clover

0/1—Keith Dalgleish

0/1—Michael Dods

0/1—Clive Cox

0/1—Chris Dwyer

0/1—Mick Easterby

0/1—Roger Fell

0/1—Ron Harris

0/1—Charlie Hills

0/1—Richard Hughes

0/1—Gay Kelleway

0/1—Michael Madgwick

0/1—Amy Murphy

0/1—Nigel Tinkler

0/1—William Muir

0/1—David O’Meara

0/1—Sir Mark Prescott

0/1—Bryan Smart

0/1—Adam West

0/2—Ed Dunlop

0/2—John Gallagher

0/2—William Haggas

0/2—Jamie Osborne

0/2—Joseph Tuite

0/2—Philip McBride

0/2—Stan Moore

0/3—Ralph Beckett

0/3—Declan Carroll

0/3—Tim Easterby

0/4—Mick Channon

0/4—Sylvester Kirk

0/5—Tom Dascombe

 

WINNING SIRES:

3—Kodiac

2—Exceed And Excel

1—Bernardini

1—Bungle Inthejungle

1—Camacho

1—Clodovil

1—Dawn Approach

1—Holy Roman Emperor

1—Oasis Dream

1—Pedro The Great

1—Requinto

1—Sir Percy

1—Sir Prancealot

1–Zebedee

 

FOALING DATES:

6 winners—February

5—April

4—March

2—January

None to date–January

 

NURSERY RUNNERS THIS SEASON:

1 win – Barend Boy (won off an official rating of 79)

1 win – Buckingham (76)

1 win – Greeley (60)

1 win – Implicit (73)

1 win – Jfoul (79)

1 win – Kodyanna (83)

1 win – Lady Katy (65)

1 win – Leading Spirit (76)

1 win – Luchador (72)

1 win – Octave (86)

1 win – Porcelain Girl (71)

1 win – Revich (78)

1 win – Semoum (83)

1 win – The Great Heir (77)

1 win – Leoube (71) & 1 placed (66)

1 win (76) & 1 unplaced (78) – Don Armado

1 win (65) & 1 unplaced (69) – North Korea

Placed x 2 – Nayslayer (69 twice)

Placed – Amadeus Grey (76)

Placed – Arctic Spirit (67)

Placed – Auusie View (82)

Placed – Big Ace (81)

Placed – Delft Dancer (78)

Placed – Devils Roc (57)

Placed – Dixieland (74)

Placed – Essenza (67)

Placed – Finoah (78)

Placed – Mayson Mac (78)

Placed – Moojim (72)

Placed – No Lippy (87)

Placed – Thegreyvtrain (64)

Placed – Two Blondes (73)

Placed – All Back To Mine (60) & Unplaced (60)

Placed – Dancing Speed (68) & Unplaced (70)

Placed – I Am A Dreamer (87) & Unplaced (87)

Unplaced x 2 – Camachess (69 twice)

Unplaced – Alfie Solomons (82)

Unplaced – Al Manhalah (56)

Unplaced – Anlan Bil Emarati (76)

Unplaced – Arbuckle (60)

Unplaced – Aurag (79)

Unplaced – Awake In Asia (75)

Unplaced – Bandola (63)

Unplaced – Beauty Concept (70)

Unplaced – Be Proud

Unplaced – Big Boots (85)

Unplaced – Bouncin Back (65)

Unplaced – Capla Rock (77)

Unplaced – Carrie’s Vision (76)

Unplaced – Corinthian Star (60)

Unplaced – Cruck Railie (62)

Unplaced – Dave Dexter (88)

Unplaced – Don’t Tell Dandy (63)

Unplaced – Double Quick (67)

Unplaced – Duke Of Yorkie (61)

Unplaced – Early Edition (67)

Unplaced – Elieden (68)

Unplaced – Fast Endeavour (61)

Unplaced – Firewater (65)

Unplaced – Free Love (71)

Unplaced – Habanera (56)

Unplaced – Hard Taskmaster (61)

Unplaced – High Horse (83)

Unplaced – House Deposit (62)

Unplaced – Immokalee (76)

Unplaced – Improvising (67)

Unplaced – Islay Mist (66)

Unplaced – Jaayiz (75)

Unplaced – James Watt (86)

Unplaced – Jazz Hands (58)

Unplaced – Juniors Fantasy (58)

Unplaced – Lady Lavinia (64)

Unplaced – Majestic Appeal (65)

Unplaced – Max Guevara (66)

Unplaced – Minas Gerais (70)

Unplaced – Nakakande (82)

Unplaced – Oberyn Martell (93)

Unplaced – Oona (74)

Unplaced – Pink Porrino (57)

Unplaced – Pirate (71)

Unplaced – Posh Perfect (7/2)

Unplaced – Prairie Spy (87)

Unplaced – Raskkolnikov (67)

Unplaced – Red Hut Red (68)

Unplaced – Roca Magica (56)

Unplaced – Rollicking (77)

Unplaced – Society Shock (78)

Unplaced – Spirit Kingdom (77)

Unplaced – Staycation (75)

Unplaced – Sufficient (72)

Unplaced – Sword Of Gold (74)

Unplaced – Temple Of Wonder (72)

Unplaced – The Fluter (58)

Unplaced – The Last Party (78)

Unplaced – Tisneverending (56)

Unplaced – Triple One (68)

Unplaced – Wolstonbury (63)

Unplaced – Yellow Fire (66)

2 x Unplaced – Blyton (81 & 79)

2 x Unplaced – Five Helmets (68 & 71)

2 x Unplaced – Solesmes (69 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tarrzan (71 & 67)

2 x Unplaced – Tobeornottobe (58 & 56)

2 x Unplaced – Ventura Bay (70 & 68)